[Hulk01]

Being a read-option, run=first scheme, Oregon relies heavily on wide receivers who can block.  This year those assignments fall to Josh Huff. Keanon Lowe, and Braylon Addison.  Lowe and Addison don’t top 5-10, 180 and Huff lists as the big guy in the group at 5-11, 200, which looks generous.

These three can match up blocking because most Pac-12 corners fit the UCLA mold of smaller corners designed to cope with speedy receivers.  The Duck’s own Ekpre-Olumu (5-10, 185 and Mitchell 6-0, 189) are typical of conference corners; Irabor and Carrington at ASU are dopplegangers for those two.

Carter and Lyons, by contrast, are hammering safeties disguised as corners.  Carter is NFL-ready as many of you have seen firsthand, a chiseled 6-0, 200.  Lyons stands  an inch taller and hovers around 195.  And both hit,

Carter and Lyons will win their match ups against Huff, Addison and Lowe.  They were recruited and born for that task.

To help Stanford’s defense even more, most of you have noticed the names of the referees assigned to the game and the reaction of Oregon fans to that announcement.  This crew is known for nailing wide receivers--notably Oregon’s--for holding.  They call it close. 

It’s not likely that Oregon will adjust by calling for more two tight-end sets.  I’m not sure I’ve ever seen them deploy one.  Plus the loss of Coke Lyerla leaves them with a 232-pound true freshman manning the position and Pharoah Brown, in whom the staff has shown little faith, backing him up. 

We have seen enough of Oregon to know that they key on trying to beat defenses on the edge and cut the run back up inside.  If their WRs cannot contain Carter and Lyons--and Carter had an exceptional game against them last year--those two guys will be funneling the play back into the fire of Murphy, Vaughters, Tarpley, and Skov, plus Stanford's defensive ends.  Their success at doing just that explains why we remember big games from Henry Anderson and Tarp against the Ducks last year; those two fed off the plays that were funneled back to them.  By the middle of the third quarter Herbie was touting Tarp for all-conference.

Item two is related: DBs.  A strength of Oregon’s defense this year is its defensive backfield.  (Even Duck fans concede that LB is in a rebuilding year).  It’s widely believed that this is an elite pass defense because of the great numbers they have put up, albeit against unusually weak passing offenses.  Virginia and Tennessee, which may sound like credible teams from major confernces, rank 120th and 114th in the nation for pass efficiency, and Nicholls State is not either team’s class.  Throw in #71 Colorado, #85 Cal and #87 Washington State and it’s difficult to imagine how Oregon could not appear, statistically at least, to have an outstanding pass defense.  Yes, Oregon’s pass defense stats give it an outstanding 101.8 PER.  But Oregon’s opponents on the season average only 119 for PER on offense.  (Stanford’s comparable numbers are 118 against opponents that have averaged 137.).

But there is more to this.  There is the Oregon defense when games are in doubt and opposing offenses fell that they can run or throw, and there is the Oregon defense is second halves when opposing offenses are forced to abandon the run and Oregon can key on the pass.  These are two clearly different defenses, as you see in their first and second half stats.

In first halves, Oregon’s pass defense rates at 114.5--again, against offenses that average only 119).  In relative terms--relative to its opponents--Oregon’s first half pass defense ranks around 52d in the nation.  Even in absolute terms that 114.5 ranks only 23rd.  Facing much better pass offenses --again with an average PER of 137--Stanford has held its opponents to a 117 PER in the first half.  That’s much better statistically.

Then comes the second half when the Ducks can key at stopping the pass: Then the Ducks rate an 89 and that performance drops their PER to 101.8.

It’s widely believed that  Oregon’s DB are the strength of this defense and second only to QB as a strength of this team.  That may be true; we might wish that this is utterly true.  Because if it is true, Stanford may have a much, much better defense than Oregon.

It’s conceded that Stanford’s ready-for-the-NFL front seven (a pundit’s words and not mine) is clearly superior to the Ducks. As one measure, Mauro, Henry Anderson, Skov, Tarpley, Murphy, and Vaughters all are projected as future NFL draft picks from Stanford’s seven.  The only Duck DL or LB I have seen listed is Taylor Hart.  Yes, three of Oregon DBs--Ekpre-Olumu , Mitchell, and Avery Patterson--all make these NFL lists at class ranks #1, 9, and 9.  But so do Carter, Lyons, Reynolds, and Richards--and at positions #2, 10, 2, and 3 respectively.

Yes we aren’t assembling an NFL team.  Yes statistics are never definitive.  Yes of course, Oregon could play a great game and they have generated lots of points.  Yes, Oregon could win.  Maybe they are even the better team. 

But I am not betting on it.

[Hulk01]

Being a read-option, run=first scheme, Oregon relies heavily on wide receivers who can block.  This year those assignments fall to Josh Huff. Keanon Lowe, and Braylon Addison.  Lowe and Addison don’t top 5-10, 180 and Huff lists as the big guy in the group at 5-11, 200, which looks generous.

These three can match up blocking because most Pac-12 corners fit the UCLA mold of smaller corners designed to cope with speedy receivers.  The Duck’s own Ekpre-Olumu (5-10, 185 and Mitchell 6-0, 189) are typical of conference corners; Irabor and Carrington at ASU are dopplegangers for those two.

Carter and Lyons, by contrast, are hammering safeties disguised as corners.  Carter is NFL-ready as many of you have seen firsthand, a chiseled 6-0, 200.  Lyons stands  an inch taller and hovers around 195.  And both hit,

Carter and Lyons will win their match ups against Huff, Addison and Lowe.  They were recruited and born for that task.

To help Stanford’s defense even more, most of you have noticed the names of the referees assigned to the game and the reaction of Oregon fans to that announcement.  This crew is known for nailing wide receivers--notably Oregon’s--for holding.  They call it close. 

It’s not likely that Oregon will adjust by calling for more two tight-end sets.  I’m not sure I’ve ever seen them deploy one.  Plus the loss of Coke Lyerla leaves them with a 232-pound true freshman manning the position and Pharoah Brown, in whom the staff has shown little faith, backing him up. 

We have seen enough of Oregon to know that they key on trying to beat defenses on the edge and cut the run back up inside.  If their WRs cannot contain Carter and Lyons--and Carter had an exceptional game against them last year--those two guys will be funneling the play back into the fire of Murphy, Vaughters, Tarpley, and Skov, plus Stanford's defensive ends.  Their success at doing just that explains why we remember big games from Henry Anderson and Tarp against the Ducks last year; those two fed off the plays that were funneled back to them.  By the middle of the third quarter Herbie was touting Tarp for all-conference.

Item two is related: DBs.  A strength of Oregon’s defense this year is its defensive backfield.  (Even Duck fans concede that LB is in a rebuilding year).  It’s widely believed that this is an elite pass defense because of the great numbers they have put up, albeit against unusually weak passing offenses.  Virginia and Tennessee, which may sound like credible teams from major confernces, rank 120th and 114th in the nation for pass efficiency, and Nicholls State is not either team’s class.  Throw in #71 Colorado, #85 Cal and #87 Washington State and it’s difficult to imagine how Oregon could not appear, statistically at least, to have an outstanding pass defense.  Yes, Oregon’s pass defense stats give it an outstanding 101.8 PER.  But Oregon’s opponents on the season average only 119 for PER on offense.  (Stanford’s comparable numbers are 118 against opponents that have averaged 137.).

But there is more to this.  There is the Oregon defense when games are in doubt and opposing offenses fell that they can run or throw, and there is the Oregon defense is second halves when opposing offenses are forced to abandon the run and Oregon can key on the pass.  These are two clearly different defenses, as you see in their first and second half stats.

In first halves, Oregon’s pass defense rates at 114.5--again, against offenses that average only 119).  In relative terms--relative to its opponents--Oregon’s first half pass defense ranks around 52d in the nation.  Even in absolute terms that 114.5 ranks only 23rd.  Facing much better pass offenses --again with an average PER of 137--Stanford has held its opponents to a 117 PER in the first half.  That’s much better statistically.

Then comes the second half when the Ducks can key at stopping the pass: Then the Ducks rate an 89 and that performance drops their PER to 101.8.

It’s widely believed that  Oregon’s DB are the strength of this defense and second only to QB as a strength of this team.  That may be true; we might wish that this is utterly true.  Because if it is true, Stanford may have a much, much better defense than Oregon.

It’s conceded that Stanford’s ready-for-the-NFL front seven (a pundit’s words and not mine) is clearly superior to the Ducks. As one measure, Mauro, Henry Anderson, Skov, Tarpley, Murphy, and Vaughters all are projected as future NFL draft picks from Stanford’s seven.  The only Duck DL or LB I have seen listed is Taylor Hart.  Yes, three of Oregon DBs--Ekpre-Olumu , Mitchell, and Avery Patterson--all make these NFL lists at class ranks #1, 9, and 9.  But so do Carter, Lyons, Reynolds, and Richards--and at positions #2, 10, 2, and 3 respectively.

Yes we aren’t assembling an NFL team.  Yes statistics are never definitive.  Yes of course, Oregon could play a great game and they have generated lots of points.  Yes, Oregon could win.  Maybe they are even the better team. 

But I am not betting on it.

[OutsiderFan]

The thing about Oregon's defense is no team in the country thrives on being in predictable situations than the Ducks.  And no team thrives more on teams giving up running the ball than Oregon either.

If Stanford is able to break tendencies, is willing to call runs on 3rd and 8, and has the patience to stick with the run throughout the game, in a balanced attack, Stanford can win, for many of the reasons cited by Hulk.

If Oregon's Linebackers are the weakness of the defense, it stands to reason that making Oregon stop a physical running game in the 4th quarter or "taking them into deep water" as Mason says, is the key to Stanford victory.

[OutsiderFan]

The thing about Oregon's defense is no team in the country thrives on being in predictable situations than the Ducks.  And no team thrives more on teams giving up running the ball than Oregon either.

If Stanford is able to break tendencies, is willing to call runs on 3rd and 8, and has the patience to stick with the run throughout the game, in a balanced attack, Stanford can win, for many of the reasons cited by Hulk.

If Oregon's Linebackers are the weakness of the defense, it stands to reason that making Oregon stop a physical running game in the 4th quarter or "taking them into deep water" as Mason says, is the key to Stanford victory.

[pcgoode]

Nice work Hulk01.  I have been thinking some of the same things you have, but hadn't dug into any stats to back up my hunches.  This will be an interesting game, and if Stanford plays well on O/D/ST, we could end up exposing some things about the Ducks that the college football world was not aware of or hadn't really drilled into.

[pcgoode]

Nice work Hulk01.  I have been thinking some of the same things you have, but hadn't dug into any stats to back up my hunches.  This will be an interesting game, and if Stanford plays well on O/D/ST, we could end up exposing some things about the Ducks that the college football world was not aware of or hadn't really drilled into.