My feeling is that David Shaw is a very good coach, and probably the best coach for Stanford in the long term (my heart would love to see Harbaugh back on the sideline, but my head tells me Shaw is probably the better long term guy, and Harbaugh ain't coming back anyway).
However like many here I question if he is the best possible playcaller or offensive coordinator. Obviously he's not bad or we wouldn't have won so many games. And the criticism that he's too stubborn to change is one that only dilettante fans should hold, and I think has been debunked pretty effectively on this board by people like WIM. But I think it's worth going a step past Shaw being open to change and question whether or not the offense we've seen on the field the past couple years is the best we could've put on the field, and not merely good.
I'm a novice when it comes to some of the advanced metrics, but the Fremeau Efficiency Index (commonly called FEI) seems to a be good metric because it takes into account strength of schedule, field position, and eliminates garbage possessions. It's instructive to look at Stanford's offensive FEI over the past few seasons. Interestingly, the 2009 Sun Bowl team was actually ranked #1 in the country by this metric, and our 2010 and 2011 teams were also ranked very highly- number 5 and number 6. Last year we were significantly back, at 34. This year we're at 16 (admittedly better than I would've thought).
The way I read these- 1) Luck was a boss, and combined with Toby was truly a sight to behold 2) Since the departure of Luck, our offense has ranged from poor (first half of last season) to good (second half of last season, this season). I think pairing a top 20 offense with an elite defense is a recipe for being one of the top teams in the country. To win the national title, you usually need to have an elite offense as well.
The past national champions, and their offensive FEI rank:
Alabama 2012, #5
Alabama 2011, #11
Auburn 2010, #1
Alabama 2009 #5
Florida 2008 #3
LSU 2007 #3
Now, is Andrew Luck 2.0 the answer, or do we have the personnel on this team to have a great offense without him? I'd say that yes, we do. ASU this year for instance is ranked #2, and in a NCAA fantasy draft I'm pretty sure the Stanford guys would generally come off the board before the ASU guys. Arizona at #9 last year, same thing.
I think it's simply too early to say whether Shaw and this staff have the ability to produce elite offenses without once in a generation QBs. But if we want to win a NC, let's hope they develop that ability, or find someone to help accomplish that. I don't think they're too far.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff2013