[82lsju]

Incoming freshman quarterback Keller Chryst comes from a strong NFL pedigree, and after three years developing on and off the field at Palo Alto High School, he looks to be the Cardinal's heir apparent to Kevin Hogan for 2016 or earlier

http://www.stanforddaily.com/keller-chryst/

[82lsju]

Incoming freshman quarterback Keller Chryst comes from a strong NFL pedigree, and after three years developing on and off the field at Palo Alto High School, he looks to be the Cardinal's heir apparent to Kevin Hogan for 2016 or earlier

http://www.stanforddaily.com/keller-chryst/

[Cowboy1]

Great article, but the highlight video is awesome.  He is so smooth that to my untrained eye it looks like he isn't properly stepping into his throws, then it goes 40 or 50 yards and hits his receivers in stride.  He often went to his second receiver (maybe third, but too much for me to know). 

I watched Ryan Burns' jr. highlights and he makes some nice throws, but totally different type of offense.  He nearly always threw to his primary receiver.  They both look brobdingnagian.

[Cowboy1]

Great article, but the highlight video is awesome.  He is so smooth that to my untrained eye it looks like he isn't properly stepping into his throws, then it goes 40 or 50 yards and hits his receivers in stride.  He often went to his second receiver (maybe third, but too much for me to know). 

I watched Ryan Burns' jr. highlights and he makes some nice throws, but totally different type of offense.  He nearly always threw to his primary receiver.  They both look brobdingnagian.

[Redrum]

The Daily piece is a thorough, interesting read.  But fergawdsakes, WATCH THE VIDEO embedded in the end of the piece.

OK.  Mirandize yourself about how all these highlight videos all look great because they are highlights.  Everybody looks like a hero in these things. Hmmmph!! OK, got a nice grumpy, skeptical mindset all spooled-up and running?  Now hit PLAY.

The impressive things to me are:
1.  A high school QB who actually looks off the defensive backs on some plays
2.  A high school QB who finds and completes to secondary receivers
3.  How little the QB actually does have to find secondary receivers.
4.  How he doesn't have to find secondary receivers much because he's SO bloody accurate, even on the move.  It's eye-opening how his passes hit guys who are really well covered.  Or how he times it so they catch it while they are open.
5.  His O-Line is...umm.. not dominating so Chryst has to make a lot happen in a short amount of time.  Pretty good at it.  Early in the video he stiff arms a rushing defender while stationary in the pocket, then holds him off while he scans the field.  Won't get to do that very much at the next level.  Not if he wants his arm still attached to his body when the whistle blows.

[Redrum]

The Daily piece is a thorough, interesting read.  But fergawdsakes, WATCH THE VIDEO embedded in the end of the piece.

OK.  Mirandize yourself about how all these highlight videos all look great because they are highlights.  Everybody looks like a hero in these things. Hmmmph!! OK, got a nice grumpy, skeptical mindset all spooled-up and running?  Now hit PLAY.

The impressive things to me are:
1.  A high school QB who actually looks off the defensive backs on some plays
2.  A high school QB who finds and completes to secondary receivers
3.  How little the QB actually does have to find secondary receivers.
4.  How he doesn't have to find secondary receivers much because he's SO bloody accurate, even on the move.  It's eye-opening how his passes hit guys who are really well covered.  Or how he times it so they catch it while they are open.
5.  His O-Line is...umm.. not dominating so Chryst has to make a lot happen in a short amount of time.  Pretty good at it.  Early in the video he stiff arms a rushing defender while stationary in the pocket, then holds him off while he scans the field.  Won't get to do that very much at the next level.  Not if he wants his arm still attached to his body when the whistle blows.

[dabigv13]

Pretty impressive video, but man, he really does not step into his throws. I guess that's a good and bad thing; the great quarterbacks, like Dan Marino, could rocket a ball with a proper hip swivel, but could also make things happen without stepping into a throw. I'll take it as a positive, as room for development.

Certainly he has the size and the arm strength.

[dabigv13]

Pretty impressive video, but man, he really does not step into his throws. I guess that's a good and bad thing; the great quarterbacks, like Dan Marino, could rocket a ball with a proper hip swivel, but could also make things happen without stepping into a throw. I'll take it as a positive, as room for development.

Certainly he has the size and the arm strength.

[CTcard]

... he looks to be the Cardinal's heir apparent to Kevin Hogan for 2016 or earlier

Have to say I am a little uneasy with a phrase like that. I know that after the spring game most of the Stanford fan board posters are writing off Burns, but I hate to see the school newspaper do so - it seems too pseudo-official*. For that matter, if it's "earlier" then we're writing off Crower as well.



* I recognize that my made up phrase here is somewhat inelegant and even poorly defined. I'll specify that "too" modifies official rather than pseudo

[CTcard]

... he looks to be the Cardinal's heir apparent to Kevin Hogan for 2016 or earlier

Have to say I am a little uneasy with a phrase like that. I know that after the spring game most of the Stanford fan board posters are writing off Burns, but I hate to see the school newspaper do so - it seems too pseudo-official*. For that matter, if it's "earlier" then we're writing off Crower as well.



* I recognize that my made up phrase here is somewhat inelegant and even poorly defined. I'll specify that "too" modifies official rather than pseudo

[Stymie]

Great highlight video.  First time in the post-Luck era that I've seen a real or potential Stanford QB hit a receiver going deep in stride--except maybe Burns, in his highlight videos a few years ago.  Somehow I envisage a John Elway/Turk Schonert moment happening sometime this Fall.

PS--for all you young uns who don't know of Schonert, he graduated into a successful NFL QB but he was never a John Elway....

[Stymie]

Great highlight video.  First time in the post-Luck era that I've seen a real or potential Stanford QB hit a receiver going deep in stride--except maybe Burns, in his highlight videos a few years ago.  Somehow I envisage a John Elway/Turk Schonert moment happening sometime this Fall.

PS--for all you young uns who don't know of Schonert, he graduated into a successful NFL QB but he was never a John Elway....

[CTcard]

Great highlight video.  First time in the post-Luck era that I've seen a real or potential Stanford QB hit a receiver going deep in stride--except maybe Burns, in his highlight videos a few years ago. 

1. I guess you didn't watch Stanford's starting QB this past year.

2. In the post-Luck era, Burns is the only QB recruit we have had other than Chryst (though you could sort of count Lloyd).

[CTcard]

Great highlight video.  First time in the post-Luck era that I've seen a real or potential Stanford QB hit a receiver going deep in stride--except maybe Burns, in his highlight videos a few years ago. 

1. I guess you didn't watch Stanford's starting QB this past year.

2. In the post-Luck era, Burns is the only QB recruit we have had other than Chryst (though you could sort of count Lloyd).

[washingtonismoney]

First time in the post-Luck era that I've seen a real or potential Stanford QB hit a receiver going deep in stride...

I, too, have never seen such a play.

The broader point, however, is silly. Chryst isn't playing as a true freshman. The reason why? We have a good quarterback already, and, separately, here's the set of "when it's a good idea to play a true freshman QB" = {}

[washingtonismoney]

First time in the post-Luck era that I've seen a real or potential Stanford QB hit a receiver going deep in stride...

I, too, have never seen such a play.

The broader point, however, is silly. Chryst isn't playing as a true freshman. The reason why? We have a good quarterback already, and, separately, here's the set of "when it's a good idea to play a true freshman QB" = {}

[Redrum]

the set of "when it's a good idea to play a true freshman QB" = {}

And the answer to when it's a good idea to play a true freshman is......when QB= {Jameis Winston}

of course it's a 2-part proposition. there IS another set of answers, this one to "When is it safe to be a young female or a business owner with inventory to protect around Jameis Winston?    Safety around Jameis = { }

[Redrum]

the set of "when it's a good idea to play a true freshman QB" = {}

And the answer to when it's a good idea to play a true freshman is......when QB= {Jameis Winston}

of course it's a 2-part proposition. there IS another set of answers, this one to "When is it safe to be a young female or a business owner with inventory to protect around Jameis Winston?    Safety around Jameis = { }

[stupac2]

the set of "when it's a good idea to play a true freshman QB" = {}

And the answer to when it's a good idea to play a true freshman is......when QB= {Jameis Winston}

of course it's a 2-part proposition. there IS another set of answers, this one to "When is it safe to be a young female or a business owner with inventory to protect around Jameis Winston?    Safety around Jameis = { }

Wasn't Winston a RS Freshman?

[stupac2]

the set of "when it's a good idea to play a true freshman QB" = {}

And the answer to when it's a good idea to play a true freshman is......when QB= {Jameis Winston}

of course it's a 2-part proposition. there IS another set of answers, this one to "When is it safe to be a young female or a business owner with inventory to protect around Jameis Winston?    Safety around Jameis = { }

Wasn't Winston a RS Freshman?

[DC]

I hope the Stanford coaches will ask Keller to step into his throws and that the transition won't mess up his timing or accuracy.

I also hope he can win the starting job as a redshirt freshman.

[DC]

I hope the Stanford coaches will ask Keller to step into his throws and that the transition won't mess up his timing or accuracy.

I also hope he can win the starting job as a redshirt freshman.

[washingtonismoney]

Wasn't Winston a RS Freshman?

Correct. As was Manziel, Mariota, Luck, etc.

Matt Hinton studied this here before the 2013 season began: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/8/...uarterback

And the 2013 crop of true freshman QBs didn't exactly change the ultimate conclusion: sometimes, if you're lucky, you get a slightly above-average performance out of your true freshman. Otherwise, you get mediocrity or worse. Deciding to bench an effective-though-flawed QB like Hogan for a true freshman is the kind of insanity fans dream up but coaches never endorse.

EDIT: I am exaggerating, but only a little bit. Eventually there will be a really successful true freshman QB, but that player will have to be absurdly talented and good. Keller Chryst might be that guy, but he'd be an incredibly rare outlier. Believing Chryst is or should be that kind of guy is the kind of magical realism thinking that leads people to use lottery tickets as their retirement plan.

[washingtonismoney]

Wasn't Winston a RS Freshman?

Correct. As was Manziel, Mariota, Luck, etc.

Matt Hinton studied this here before the 2013 season began: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/8/...uarterback

And the 2013 crop of true freshman QBs didn't exactly change the ultimate conclusion: sometimes, if you're lucky, you get a slightly above-average performance out of your true freshman. Otherwise, you get mediocrity or worse. Deciding to bench an effective-though-flawed QB like Hogan for a true freshman is the kind of insanity fans dream up but coaches never endorse.

EDIT: I am exaggerating, but only a little bit. Eventually there will be a really successful true freshman QB, but that player will have to be absurdly talented and good. Keller Chryst might be that guy, but he'd be an incredibly rare outlier. Believing Chryst is or should be that kind of guy is the kind of magical realism thinking that leads people to use lottery tickets as their retirement plan.

[CowboyIndian]

I hope the Stanford coaches will ask Keller to step into his throws and that the transition won't mess up his timing or accuracy.

His father is a professional QB coach. Perhaps this escaped his notice.

[CowboyIndian]

I hope the Stanford coaches will ask Keller to step into his throws and that the transition won't mess up his timing or accuracy.

His father is a professional QB coach. Perhaps this escaped his notice.

[Stymie]

[quote author=Stymie link=topic=9957.msg89214#msg89214 date=1399716023]
Great highlight video.  First time in the post-Luck era that I've seen a real or potential Stanford QB hit a receiver going deep in stride--except maybe Burns, in his highlight videos a few years ago. 

1. I guess you didn't watch Stanford's starting QB this past year.

2. In the post-Luck era, Burns is the only QB recruit we have had other than Chryst (though you could sort of count Lloyd).
[/quote]

I watched the Rose Bowl and enough tape to believe that hitting a receiver going deep IN STRIDE is not a forte of last year's starting QB.  Hogan's OK (maybe top 25 nationally, to be generous) but not what the school that defined QBU with Albert, Brodie, Plunkett, Bunce, Benjamin, Boryla, Schonert, Elway, and Luck (I'm sure I've missed a few) deserves.

Elway didn't red shirt, and I watched him in practice when he was a freshman in 1979 and I was living in PA.  Even then, he was and is the most awesome thrower of a football that I have ever seen.  Keller is no Elway, but neither is Luck (throwing wise), to be honest (leadership is another matter).  As I said above, Hogan is OK, but he's not a Schonert.  Keller, on the other hand, can throw and hit a receiver in stride.  So can Burns.  Hogan?  Sometimes, maybe, but sometimes ain't good enough if we want to go to the final 4.

[Stymie]

[quote author=Stymie link=topic=9957.msg89214#msg89214 date=1399716023]
Great highlight video.  First time in the post-Luck era that I've seen a real or potential Stanford QB hit a receiver going deep in stride--except maybe Burns, in his highlight videos a few years ago. 

1. I guess you didn't watch Stanford's starting QB this past year.

2. In the post-Luck era, Burns is the only QB recruit we have had other than Chryst (though you could sort of count Lloyd).
[/quote]

I watched the Rose Bowl and enough tape to believe that hitting a receiver going deep IN STRIDE is not a forte of last year's starting QB.  Hogan's OK (maybe top 25 nationally, to be generous) but not what the school that defined QBU with Albert, Brodie, Plunkett, Bunce, Benjamin, Boryla, Schonert, Elway, and Luck (I'm sure I've missed a few) deserves.

Elway didn't red shirt, and I watched him in practice when he was a freshman in 1979 and I was living in PA.  Even then, he was and is the most awesome thrower of a football that I have ever seen.  Keller is no Elway, but neither is Luck (throwing wise), to be honest (leadership is another matter).  As I said above, Hogan is OK, but he's not a Schonert.  Keller, on the other hand, can throw and hit a receiver in stride.  So can Burns.  Hogan?  Sometimes, maybe, but sometimes ain't good enough if we want to go to the final 4.

[washingtonismoney]

  Hogan?  Sometimes ...

Hogan was 3rd in the country in completion % for passes traveling over 25 yards in the air at 50%*, and 3rd in the country in TD passes over 25 yards: http://espn.go.com/blog/notre-dame-footb...d-you-know

* I know that link doesn't contain the ranking, but ESPN has mentioned it elsewhere and I am too lazy to find the actual stat at the moment.

[washingtonismoney]

  Hogan?  Sometimes ...

Hogan was 3rd in the country in completion % for passes traveling over 25 yards in the air at 50%*, and 3rd in the country in TD passes over 25 yards: http://espn.go.com/blog/notre-dame-footb...d-you-know

* I know that link doesn't contain the ranking, but ESPN has mentioned it elsewhere and I am too lazy to find the actual stat at the moment.

[Stymie]

Most of my memories of Hogan's long game are him scrambling and then chucking the ball downfield to Montgomery or Cajuste or Whitfield or Owusu or Pratt et. al. each of whom had to stop and leap in front of the defender to catch the short ball.  Of course, I could be wrong and very much hope so, as Hogan's our man for 2014 and most probably 2015, too.

[Stymie]

Most of my memories of Hogan's long game are him scrambling and then chucking the ball downfield to Montgomery or Cajuste or Whitfield or Owusu or Pratt et. al. each of whom had to stop and leap in front of the defender to catch the short ball.  Of course, I could be wrong and very much hope so, as Hogan's our man for 2014 and most probably 2015, too.

[washingtonismoney]

Most of my memories ...

Yeah, well, try relying on actual tape or statistics.

[washingtonismoney]

Most of my memories ...

Yeah, well, try relying on actual tape or statistics.

[Stymie]

[quote author=Stymie link=topic=9957.msg89265#msg89265 date=1399747944]
Most of my memories ...

Yeah, well, try relying on actual tape or statistics.
[/quote]

I rely on tape (much of which of Hogan's long game I have seen), but as one who aced statistics at both Stanford and Harvard Business School I solidly believe the old chestnut of "lies, damned lies and statistics." :)

[Stymie]

[quote author=Stymie link=topic=9957.msg89265#msg89265 date=1399747944]
Most of my memories ...

Yeah, well, try relying on actual tape or statistics.
[/quote]

I rely on tape (much of which of Hogan's long game I have seen), but as one who aced statistics at both Stanford and Harvard Business School I solidly believe the old chestnut of "lies, damned lies and statistics." :)

[washingtonismoney]

I rely on tape (much of which of Hogan's long game I have seen), but as one who aced statistics at both Stanford and Harvard Business School I solidly believe the old chestnut of "lies, damned lies and statistics." :)

Better statistics than faulty memory. I mean, here's every single ESPN highlight of a Hogan longball from 2013:
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9649332
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9649995
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9740904
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9741147
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9741283
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9815483
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9850031
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9887303
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9943420
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10098537
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10098652
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10099977

To me I see maybe one longball that even comes close to the description of your memory -- Hogan scrambling around and heaving up a ball to a receiver who comes back and does all the work. (If you'd bothered to consult the statistics rather than memory -- which has a way of forgetting things! -- you'd know Hogan ran and scrambled much less this year than last.) Of course, some of these are perfect strikes, some of them just good balls; and a couple the receiver is doing good work. Fine, whatever; basically every quarterback has receivers helping him out in this day and age. That's where we turn to statistics, where the knowledge that Hogan completed the third-highest percentage on deep passes combines with our view of the tape to say, "Well, he's a pretty good quarterback at throwing deep." Basically every QB sometimes misses guys a bit. It seems like a stretch to say that Hogan is somehow completing the most passes of everyone...but those completions are worse than others.

But I understand you have a different evaluative measure of "using your memory to summon nonexistent plays, and comparing that to your perhaps equally faulty memory of other players."

[washingtonismoney]

I rely on tape (much of which of Hogan's long game I have seen), but as one who aced statistics at both Stanford and Harvard Business School I solidly believe the old chestnut of "lies, damned lies and statistics." :)

Better statistics than faulty memory. I mean, here's every single ESPN highlight of a Hogan longball from 2013:
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9649332
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9649995
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9740904
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9741147
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9741283
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9815483
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9850031
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9887303
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9943420
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10098537
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10098652
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10099977

To me I see maybe one longball that even comes close to the description of your memory -- Hogan scrambling around and heaving up a ball to a receiver who comes back and does all the work. (If you'd bothered to consult the statistics rather than memory -- which has a way of forgetting things! -- you'd know Hogan ran and scrambled much less this year than last.) Of course, some of these are perfect strikes, some of them just good balls; and a couple the receiver is doing good work. Fine, whatever; basically every quarterback has receivers helping him out in this day and age. That's where we turn to statistics, where the knowledge that Hogan completed the third-highest percentage on deep passes combines with our view of the tape to say, "Well, he's a pretty good quarterback at throwing deep." Basically every QB sometimes misses guys a bit. It seems like a stretch to say that Hogan is somehow completing the most passes of everyone...but those completions are worse than others.

But I understand you have a different evaluative measure of "using your memory to summon nonexistent plays, and comparing that to your perhaps equally faulty memory of other players."

[DC]

[quote author=DC link=topic=9957.msg89246#msg89246 date=1399743530]
I hope the Stanford coaches will ask Keller to step into his throws and that the transition won't mess up his timing or accuracy.

His father is a professional QB coach. Perhaps this escaped his notice.
[/quote]

I think his dad decided not to change his mechanics and possibly go through an adjustment period. Getting a scholarship is important.

[DC]

[quote author=DC link=topic=9957.msg89246#msg89246 date=1399743530]
I hope the Stanford coaches will ask Keller to step into his throws and that the transition won't mess up his timing or accuracy.

His father is a professional QB coach. Perhaps this escaped his notice.
[/quote]

I think his dad decided not to change his mechanics and possibly go through an adjustment period. Getting a scholarship is important.