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Does anyone have family, friends, etc. with covid-19?  Twenty-four hours ago, I wasn't aware of any.  Now I probably have two.  A friend's girlfriend came back from Europe recently and spent two weeks with a fever and horrible dry cough.  She tried to get tested but couldn't.  Still, the symptoms match perfectly.  And a relative of mine just started having symptoms--bad headache, fever, sore throat.  He doesn't have any way to get tested yet either.  He's just self-isolating for now.
The one confirmed case I know is a 44-year-old male, previously in perfect health (recently ran a marathon), and has been in the ICU for just over a week, on a respirator the entire time, largely sedated and unconscious. Prior to his admission to the ICU he'd previously had to go to the ER twice due to breathing troubles, and he's about 18-20 days in since he first had symptoms. As of about a day ago, it seemed like he was finally starting to turn the corner, but it's been horrifying to see a relatively young guy with none of the risk factors be inches from death. His experience is exemplary of why the whole "this is just like flu" is such garbage - I've never known someone healthy and around my age admitted to the ICU for over a week for the flu.
(03-28-2020, 08:14 AM)2006alum Wrote: [ -> ]The one confirmed case I know is a 44-year-old male, previously in perfect health (recently ran a marathon), and has been in the ICU for just over a week, on a respirator the entire time, largely sedated and unconscious. Prior to his admission to the ICU he'd previously had to go to the ER twice due to breathing troubles, and he's about 18-20 days in since he first had symptoms. As of about a day ago, it seemed like he was finally starting to turn the corner, but it's been horrifying to see a relatively young guy with none of the risk factors be inches from death. His experience is exemplary of why the whole "this is just like flu" is such garbage - I've never known someone healthy and around my age admitted to the ICU for over a week for the flu.

Reading about cases like that scares me, and the accounts from people who had "mild" cases don't provide any reassurance, either. If this was some new strain of the flu, I wouldn't be afraid of the possibility of contracting it and feeling crummy for a few days. But when I read about how it can take up to two weeks to recover from a mild case and that it can kill or nearly kill a small number of young and healthy people, it makes me fearful.
a friend's mother in LA tested positive, the mother is in her 70s - no recent details on her condition

former co-worker living in Seattle also tested positive (she's in her 50s) her two sons (teenagers) also yested positive - all at home, she's had the worse case with significant shortness of breath and chest pain for the last 10 days, her kids have had pretty mild symptoms

CEO of a competitor of my employer was reported positive in their 10-K yesterday which said he's at home, he's in his early 60s
Count me among those who have to put forth a great deal of effort each day to keep his anxiety about Covid-19 under control.  The stories of relatively (or in some cases absolutely) young and healthy people succumbing to this virus is chilling, even as a good outcome is still the rule.  Equally disturbing is the high fatality rate across the population.  I have elderly parents who live with one of my brothers who is still working outside the home.

Hitting close to home, the father of a friend of my brother's was one of the first in Colorado to die from the virus.  He was in his mid-80's and just an all around good guy.  No explanation has been advanced as to how he contracted the virus.  I also learned that a man in his late 40's with whom I used to swim masters, and who is in excellent shape, endured a very difficult infection, although he did not require hospitalization.

Among all the still-to-be-answered questions is the matter of what explains the extremely variable outcome from one person to the next.  The presence of underlying medical problems is a part-explanation, but clearly insufficient.  Given similar outcomes among relatives, such as the family in New Jersey in which four members died, I wonder about genetic factors.  But from everything I read -- and I read avidly on the subject in the yet-to-be-realized hope that it will provide me some sense of control -- I have not even found a good theory as to why the virus "blows up" to a full-fledged pneumonia, and often Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS), in some people.

The fear was AIDS in the 80's, now it's ARDS in the present.  I'm 59, and if it comes to the need to be intubated, I am strongly considering declining the intervention in favor of comfort care.  (Assuming there would be a ventilatory available.)

Ugh.  Terrible times.
So far we have been informed of only one positive case — a person who lives in the South Bay I’d estimate to be in their late 30s informed us they had “finally” gotten tested after having mild cold symptoms form  a week and a half. The person contacted us because they had interacted with us socially 4 weeks ago, about 2 weeks before their symptoms had started.

The person had not travelled internationally, but works at a job that interacts with a lot of people.
(03-28-2020, 08:14 AM)2006alum Wrote: [ -> ]The one confirmed case I know is a 44-year-old male, previously in perfect health (recently ran a marathon), and has been in the ICU for just over a week, on a respirator the entire time, largely sedated and unconscious. Prior to his admission to the ICU he'd previously had to go to the ER twice due to breathing troubles, and he's about 18-20 days in since he first had symptoms. As of about a day ago, it seemed like he was finally starting to turn the corner, but it's been horrifying to see a relatively young guy with none of the risk factors be inches from death. His experience is exemplary of why the whole "this is just like flu" is such garbage - I've never known someone healthy and around my age admitted to the ICU for over a week for the flu.

Wait, is this the guy in Chicago who wrote a long FB post about his ordeal right after getting into the ER? I've come across that story a bunch of times and think I even met him at a beer event in Copenhagen. It's been weird seeing how many different ways I've seen his story come up. Glad to hear he's turned the corner, if it's the same guy.
Unfortunately quite a few of my 2nd degree connections have tested positive for it or are presumed to have it.

I do have a friend (late 50s) who has been documenting his daily struggles with an illness, trying to get tested, and trying to get treatment, and is now on day 15. Looks like he is going to make it, did not have to be admitted to the hospital, and even though he finally got tested and it came back negative (twice) the medical personnel told him that he most likely does have it.
(03-28-2020, 10:53 AM)stupac2 Wrote: [ -> ]
(03-28-2020, 08:14 AM)2006alum Wrote: [ -> ]The one confirmed case I know is a 44-year-old male, previously in perfect health (recently ran a marathon), and has been in the ICU for just over a week, on a respirator the entire time, largely sedated and unconscious. Prior to his admission to the ICU he'd previously had to go to the ER twice due to breathing troubles, and he's about 18-20 days in since he first had symptoms. As of about a day ago, it seemed like he was finally starting to turn the corner, but it's been horrifying to see a relatively young guy with none of the risk factors be inches from death. His experience is exemplary of why the whole "this is just like flu" is such garbage - I've never known someone healthy and around my age admitted to the ICU for over a week for the flu.

Wait, is this the guy in Chicago who wrote a long FB post about his ordeal right after getting into the ER? I've come across that story a bunch of times and think I even met him at a beer event in Copenhagen. It's been weird seeing how many different ways I've seen his story come up. Glad to hear he's turned the corner, if it's the same guy.

Unfortunately not the same guy - not in Chicago and no FB posts I'm aware of. Mine isn't a Stanford connection either. 

Scary that there are multiple people documenting similar horrible experiences. :(
As I mentioned in another post, John Murray, who was one of the fathers of pulmonology and an emeritus faculty member at UCSF died from Covid-19 in Paris.  He was in his 90’s.

BC
The confirmed case total for the US was 113,000 this morning, which is ~0.03% of the population.  This thread makes me thing the actual is A LOT more.

Anyone know people at a polling firm?  I think that with a little statistical knowledge*, you could poll a bunch of people, ask how many they know confirmed and suspected, and get a better estimate of the total than anyone's given us so far.

* you'd have to figure out how many people each person knows on average to get a denominator, but I think if you broke it down into friends, family work acquaintances, etc. there must be data out there on how big the average person's social network is.  You could also use the confirmed numbers as a correction factor, since they have to add up to ~113,000.  The only real guesswork would be what % of the suspected cases are covid-19 vs flu, etc.  My guess is that covid is making up a larger proportion of the flu-like illnesses every day.  For me at least, this would be super interesting (my day job involves analyzing similar messy datasets).
While I agree it’s maddening that more widespread testing is still not available so we can’t figure out how many cases there are, and while I think the idea of a poll is interesting, it would miss asymptomatic cases and have many false positives.

The UW Virology lab, which has a capacity to run 3500 tests/day (and growing) lately has had a 10-14% positive rate depending on whom they’re testing (more walk-in vs more admitted). 

https://mobile.twitter.com/UWVirology
WA is still limited in their testing.  Similar to other states, the majority are symptoms with exposure or symptoms after hotspot travel, or admittable symptoms.  

While they have a capacity of 3500 (since last week), something in the process got fumbled as they dipped to just 1000 over the past weekend and only recently just got back up above 2000.  I hear it's because when they hit 3500 tests processed last week, they stopped accepting new provider referrals...and some speculate that the old providers backlog emptied out.
(03-28-2020, 11:42 AM)burger Wrote: [ -> ]The confirmed case total for the US was 113,000 this morning, which is ~0.03% of the population.  This thread makes me thing the actual is A LOT more.

Anyone know people at a polling firm?  I think that with a little statistical knowledge*, you could poll a bunch of people, ask how many they know confirmed and suspected, and get a better estimate of the total than anyone's given us so far.

* you'd have to figure out how many people each person knows on average to get a denominator, but I think if you broke it down into friends, family work acquaintances, etc. there must be data out there on how big the average person's social network is.  You could also use the confirmed numbers as a correction factor, since they have to add up to ~113,000.  The only real guesswork would be what % of the suspected cases are covid-19 vs flu, etc.  My guess is that covid is making up a larger proportion of the flu-like illnesses every day.  For me at least, this would be super interesting (my day job involves analyzing similar messy datasets).

Considering this is the top news item most days and people are scared I would guess your chances of finding this out versus finding out someone has cancer dramatically increase. You're also more likely to register it. So that's one. Two, Stanford grads are disproportionately located in hot spots as are their networks of friends (SF Bay Area, NYC, Seattle, LA) so that would greatly increase our chances of knowing someone over the average American (as if there is such a thing). But I agree there are a lot of cases that are not confirmed and I cannot fathom the infection rate being as low as they claim it might be in my town.
Not someone I know personally, but JFC if this doesn't sound like a living hell:


(03-28-2020, 11:06 AM)2006alum Wrote: [ -> ]
(03-28-2020, 10:53 AM)stupac2 Wrote: [ -> ]
(03-28-2020, 08:14 AM)2006alum Wrote: [ -> ]The one confirmed case I know is a 44-year-old male, previously in perfect health (recently ran a marathon), and has been in the ICU for just over a week, on a respirator the entire time, largely sedated and unconscious. Prior to his admission to the ICU he'd previously had to go to the ER twice due to breathing troubles, and he's about 18-20 days in since he first had symptoms. As of about a day ago, it seemed like he was finally starting to turn the corner, but it's been horrifying to see a relatively young guy with none of the risk factors be inches from death. His experience is exemplary of why the whole "this is just like flu" is such garbage - I've never known someone healthy and around my age admitted to the ICU for over a week for the flu.

Wait, is this the guy in Chicago who wrote a long FB post about his ordeal right after getting into the ER? I've come across that story a bunch of times and think I even met him at a beer event in Copenhagen. It's been weird seeing how many different ways I've seen his story come up. Glad to hear he's turned the corner, if it's the same guy.

Unfortunately not the same guy - not in Chicago and no FB posts I'm aware of. Mine isn't a Stanford connection either. 

Scary that there are multiple people documenting similar horrible experiences. :(

Yeah I misremembered, 42 and no mention of marathons, just general exercise: https://www.facebook.com/bane1/posts/10218176351614167

It really sounds like a motherfucker of a disease.
Not someone I know, but here is an audio blog of a virologist, Ian Lipkin, while he has the disease (Mar. 28).
You get to hear his cough to know what it is like.
 
or the original site
http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/

He heard of the disease Dec. 15. He went to China in mid January, meeting with their scientists, and up to the premier.
R-naught is higher than estimated.
21:17 This is the most transmissible virus I've ever seen.
22:00 In China, shutting things down brought R-naught to about 1.3. Separating infected people from their possibly-infected families brought it to less than 1.
30:00 He hints there is evidence of the virus existing earlier (in animals?) as for MERS & HIV.
31:30 He suggests how to deal with the epidemic. Then he leads into face masks.
32:30 2003 study: People that used facemasks consistently had a 70% reduction in community transmission; used intermittently, 60% reduction.
35:30 Worked with Scott Burns to produce clips with Contagion movie cast talking about what people should do.
45:30 Talking about drugs & vaccines
1:00:20 What should people do to protect themselves?

He talks about 4 studies they are doing, including sterilizing masks for reuse.
(03-28-2020, 09:58 AM)DenverCard Wrote: [ -> ]Count me among those who have to put forth a great deal of effort each day to keep his anxiety about Covid-19 under control.  The stories of relatively (or in some cases absolutely) young and healthy people succumbing to this virus is chilling, even as a good outcome is still the rule.  Equally disturbing is the high fatality rate across the population.  I have elderly parents who live with one of my brothers who is still working outside the home.

Hitting close to home, the father of a friend of my brother's was one of the first in Colorado to die from the virus.  He was in his mid-80's and just an all around good guy.  No explanation has been advanced as to how he contracted the virus.  I also learned that a man in his late 40's with whom I used to swim masters, and who is in excellent shape, endured a very difficult infection, although he did not require hospitalization.

Among all the still-to-be-answered questions is the matter of what explains the extremely variable outcome from one person to the next.  The presence of underlying medical problems is a part-explanation, but clearly insufficient.  Given similar outcomes among relatives, such as the family in New Jersey in which four members died, I wonder about genetic factors.  But from everything I read -- and I read avidly on the subject in the yet-to-be-realized hope that it will provide me some sense of control -- I have not even found a good theory as to why the virus "blows up" to a full-fledged pneumonia, and often Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS), in some people.

The fear was AIDS in the 80's, now it's ARDS in the present.  I'm 59, and if it comes to the need to be intubated, I am strongly considering declining the intervention in favor of comfort care.  (Assuming there would be a ventilatory available.)

Ugh.  Terrible times.

Most of the under 60 group who have gone on ventilators have survived.

My best friend from medical school has a 21 year old son living in NYC with one day of fever, chills, worst headache of his life and myalgia. No cough yet. Almost certainly Covid-19. My friend is a world famous surgeon so of course he called a world famous infectious disease specialist in New York to monitor the son. (Overkill.) I gave him the same advice as the ID guy. No need to go out and get tested now. The usual stay at home and hydrate routine and keep a diary of fevers. No ibuprofen just in case. He also somehow was able to get someone to deliver a pulse oximeter to the kid's apartment today. My friend moved to a new job out of state just 2 weeks ago. The mother is still in NYC so will deliver food to his door. 

I expect his son to do well. I spoke to the son a few minutes ago and he's calmer than his father.
Addidoc,

Thanks for shining a more hopeful light on the situation.  The core of optimism that most of us are able to retain in difficult times reminds me that there will come a time -- and hopefully not too far in the future -- when the pendulum will swing to more good news than bad.
My wife's friend has a sister in Alabama that has tested positive and remains in isolation, I guess.   Apparently she has been on the news in Alabama as they don't have that many cases, seems like she is improving day to day now.     She was on a work trip to NYC and suspects that was the origin.
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