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Gavin has apologized several times. Generally, I think he's done a good of of being honest with the facts, which is maybe the most important thing to bring to the table. Lets just say it's a good thing Trump or one of those Republican non mask governors aren't in charge here.
WA state to announce tomorrow new restrictions including no gyms, no bowling,  no indoor dining,  indoor gatherings restricted to households.  (Just cherry picking)

With WA and OR tightening up, is CA following suit (or did I miss an announcement)?
(11-15-2020, 12:26 AM)magnus Wrote: [ -> ]WA state to announce tomorrow new restrictions including no gyms, no bowling,  no indoor dining,  indoor gatherings restricted to households.  (Just cherry picking)

With WA and OR tightening up, is CA following suit (or did I miss an announcement)?

California has had many of those restrictions in place for 2 or 3 months, but they are triggered on (primarily) the number of cases per capita in each county.  Los Angeles has never officially gotten out from under the current highest restrictions (purple); Santa Clara County had cases drop to the level that indoor dining would have been allowed by the state, but the cases have gotten too high & things are locking up again

See https://covid19.ca.gov/safer-economy/

I really don't like that it is "safer-economy" rather that "safer-people"!  The whole set of SIP rules in California were all based around businesses.  They never officially allowed people out to walk in their neighborhoods for health until the blueprint stuff came along (August?).  You were allowed to go to a business for exercise indoors,  before you were allowed to take a walk outdoors (except if you were walking to a business of course ).  You were able to congregate for a business but never for non-business reason.  I think I recall that initially, you were only able to go to a business to seek medical care or supplies or whatever.  The rules about mask wearing were all business oriented -- for instance, if you were in a car for hire, there was a rule, but if you were in a car with a non-family member for a non-business reason, there was no rule.   Ditto for residences -- all the rules defined that you had to wear a mask at a business or in a public place if within 6' indoors of non-household members, but didn't cover the case if you were in someone's house for non-business reasons  (for instance, children being with the parent they don't live with).

Quote:Nov. 13:  In Santa Clara County, Health Officer Dr. Sara Cody today announced that the County’s dramatically increasing case counts make clear that the County will be moved to the State’s Red Tier next Tuesday November 17th. Unless the current surge is quickly brought under control, the County expects to be moved to the Purple Tier in the next few weeks.

Dr. Cody and most of her colleagues around the Bay Area will be issuing local orders today requiring the closure of indoor dining and imposing limits on certain other high-risk activities. The new restrictions on activity in Santa Clara County will take effect on Tuesday, November 17th at 12:01 a.m.

(I don't know what happened to those orders.  Neither the orders nor a press-release detailing them are at the SCC PHD web site in the wee hours of Nov. 15.   They orders, as stated above, are not strictly necessary, as the state's orders will require those closures, starting Tuesday.)

As for purple status, the case rate (7 day average > 10 daily cases/1000K) is already at Purple status (> 7 daily cases/100K).  The only reason SCC isn't purple is the hysteresis built into the rules.   With things climbing this fast, I wish the county would get in front of it, not wait for the state's restrictions to kick in.

This site calculates an R of 1.4 for SCC and much of the area, WHICH IS HIGHER THAN R CALCULATED FOR NORTH DAKOTA (1.33).
Edit: 1.41*1.41 = 1.988. This R suggests our cases will double every 10 days. So, by the 3 weeks happens when the state purple rules kick in, if R doesn't turn down, SCC will be at 20 new cases/10K per day.

Youch!

I would not be at all surprised to see the state kick in higher restrictions at 14 and 25 and 50 daily cases per 10K.  and possibly 100 daily cases per 10K.   I'm not sure what colors they'll have to assign them. The U.S. is currently at 43 new cases per 10K people per the CDC.
M T

Newsom was in a tough bind.   He apparently has understood what should be done, but also understood that POTUS45 would threaten funds if he was too tough.   Governor Cuomo, for example, said something recently and now POTUS45 is threatening to exclude NY citizens from the earliest wave of the vaccine distribution. 

So for the next ~70 days I expect we will stay with our current Purple, Red, Orange, Yellow system as a new system could put CA in a similar situation to NY where citizens need to decide if the POTUS45 vaccine threat is possible.   As we get closer to January 20, I expect Governor Newsom will be more passionate about citizens doing more than the bare minimum.   And on January 20/21 when POTUS46 encourages Governors to implement statewide mask mandates, plus whatever else the POTUS46 COVID task force advises, I am sure Gov Newsom will do that too.

Any changes like that will all be far too late to slow this massive wave.  Hard to believe POTUS45 will change his COVID stance now, so until nurses and doctors are literally crying on FoxNews and NewsMax this is our path.

For me it is best to imagine POTUS45 will just check out of his job.  Much like a project leader that gave 2 weeks notice a few days ago, and is very eager to leave the job.   We have this big new project that should be started ASAP, but realistically we will just need to wait for the new project leader because the current employee hated this part of his job and has mentally checked out already. 

IIWII
(11-15-2020, 09:30 AM)Farm93 Wrote: [ -> ]Newsom was in a tough bind.   He apparently has understood what should be done, but also understood that POTUS45 would threaten funds if he was too tough.
Yes, Newsom was and is in a tough bind. He has Garcetti pushing on him the entire time to protect the LA County economy. It isn't a random fact that LA County was given lots of rope early in this epidemic when their case counts were sky high. I very seriously doubt Newsom worried nearly as much about POTUS 45 threats as you seem to believe. Despite his bluster, there really is little POTUS 45 could do to treat states differently. He can threaten funds, but in most cases he can't actually block them. With this POTUS, he would have blocked funds for"blue" states every chance he got. Fortunately, there are few opportunities to do so. The courts won't let him, thank goodness, I think one needs look no farther than state politics to find the reasons for Newsom's somewhat schizophrenic response.
(11-15-2020, 09:59 AM)Goose Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020, 09:30 AM)Farm93 Wrote: [ -> ]Newsom was in a tough bind.   He apparently has understood what should be done, but also understood that POTUS45 would threaten funds if he was too tough.
Yes, Newsom was and is in a tough bind. He has Garcetti pushing on him the entire time to protect the LA County economy. It isn't a random fact that LA County was given lots of rope early in this epidemic when their case counts were sky high. I very seriously doubt Newsom worried nearly as much about POTUS 45 threats as you seem to believe. Despite his bluster, there really is little POTUS 45 could do to treat states differently. He can threaten funds, but in most cases he can't actually block them. With this POTUS, he would have blocked funds for"blue" states every chance he got. Fortunately, there are few opportunities to do so. The courts won't let him, thank goodness, I think one needs look no farther than state politics to find the reasons for Newsom's somewhat schizophrenic response.
In northern Santa Clara County, there isn't much in the way of non-mask compliance. On my daily walk, I carry a mask, and put it on as I approach someone and when I walk into town (Castro Street, Mountain View). Everyone is masked there, on the crowded sidewalk. Out door diners are not, but they are pretty isolated.

I don't know what marginal benefit a mask mandate would provide where I live.

I write this because I'm not so sure that the social custom is lagging, even in Red States. No one wants to get sick. I'd bet there is substantial compliance even among Trump supporters.
Gov. Brown announced a new shutdown in Oregon on Friday. For two weeks. No indoor dining, no gatherings of more than 25, no gyms, etc. UofO and OSU Football allowed without spectators. Hair and massage allowed with masks, distancing, and taking temperatures. Retail stores have strict limits on capacity and also masks and distancing. 

Schools are mostly online only. Counties having fewer than 100 cases per 100k over the last 14 days and less than 8% positivity can have hybrid learning for K-3. For 4-12 they have to have fewer than 50 cases per 100K over the last 14 days and less than 5% positive. Our schools in Eugene are staying remote until at least January. 

In this oddly divided reality and the heavily politicized pandemic responses, we are a blue state and mostly compliant in the urban areas Portland, Salem, and Eugene; mostly red in the rural areas, and not so compliant.


BTW this is edited for clarity with thanks to M T for the followup.
(11-15-2020, 12:28 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020, 09:59 AM)Goose Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020, 09:30 AM)Farm93 Wrote: [ -> ]Newsom was in a tough bind.   He apparently has understood what should be done, but also understood that POTUS45 would threaten funds if he was too tough.
Yes, Newsom was and is in a tough bind. He has Garcetti pushing on him the entire time to protect the LA County economy. It isn't a random fact that LA County was given lots of rope early in this epidemic when their case counts were sky high. I very seriously doubt Newsom worried nearly as much about POTUS 45 threats as you seem to believe. Despite his bluster, there really is little POTUS 45 could do to treat states differently. He can threaten funds, but in most cases he can't actually block them. With this POTUS, he would have blocked funds for"blue" states every chance he got. Fortunately, there are few opportunities to do so. The courts won't let him, thank goodness, I think one needs look no farther than state politics to find the reasons for Newsom's somewhat schizophrenic response.
In northern Santa Clara County, there isn't much in the way of non-mask compliance. On my daily walk, I carry a mask, and put it on as I approach someone and when I walk into town (Castro Street, Mountain View). Everyone is masked there, on the crowded sidewalk. Out door diners are not, but they are pretty isolated.

I don't know what marginal benefit a mask mandate would provide where I live.

I write this because I'm not so sure that the social custom is lagging, even in Red States. No one wants to get sick. I'd bet there is substantial compliance even among Trump supporters.

Picked up at a south bay diner near my house this a.m.  Diner was full house inside, few were wearing masks.  All the employees wore masks, for more than half it didn't cover their noses.  And so it goes.
(11-15-2020, 12:28 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: [ -> ]I write this because I'm not so sure that the social custom is lagging, even in Red States. No one wants to get sick. I'd bet there is substantial compliance even among Trump supporters.
Sure, no one wants to get sick,  but some don't think getting sick is all that bad.  Others don't think they'll get sick at all.   The Bay Area is probably one of the leading mask wearing areas.   Possibly up there with NYC.  It only goes downhill from there. 

Here's an anecdote from a healthcare professional in South Dakota.  Sure,  sample size, but it just goes to show the range of attitudes.


In case anyone thought Sweden's herd immunity approach is heading off a winter wave-

(11-15-2020, 12:35 PM)oregontim Wrote: [ -> ]Schools are mostly online only. Counties having fewer than 100 cases per thousand and less than 8% positivity can have hybrid learning for K-3. For 4-12 they have to have fewer than 50 cases per thousand and less than 5% positive. Our schools in Eugene are staying remote until at least January.

Can you clarify your numbers?   "100 cases per thousand"   Is that over the last 9 months, or some sort of ongoing average?

The US, at > 150K new cases a day, is at (per CDC) 43 new cases per day per 100,000.
At 10.8M cases, that's 32 cases per thousand over the last 9 months across the US.  Of course, for any community, all of those may be 6 months old or just 1 week old.  Surely they aren't using old data to judge current infection rates.

California purple level starts at 7 daily new cases per 100,000 population.  The average across California is currently 18.3.
(11-15-2020, 01:28 PM)magnus Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020, 12:28 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: [ -> ]I write this because I'm not so sure that the social custom is lagging, even in Red States. No one wants to get sick. I'd bet there is substantial compliance even among Trump supporters.
Sure, no one wants to get sick,  but some don't think getting sick is all that bad.  Others don't think they'll get sick at all.   The Bay Area is probably one of the leading mask wearing areas.   Possibly up there with NYC.  It only goes downhill from there. 

Here's an anecdote from a healthcare professional in South Dakota.  Sure,  sample size, but it just goes to show the range of attitudes.


That may be, but cases are rising here as elsewhere. 

Which for me raises the question of whether the cause of the rise are cultural differences, or more neutral factors.

It's easy, and tempting, to attribute second wave cases to the wages of sin for  those who didn't get the social distancing message. Maybe too tempting.
(11-15-2020, 03:25 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: [ -> ]It's easy, and tempting, to attribute second wave cases to the wages of sin for  those who didn't get the social distancing message. Maybe too tempting.

I absolutely agree.

For instance, I don't think fewer people are wearing masks today, driving this much larger wave, than in July or March. (SCC's largest sample day for positive cases ever is now 397 cases (so far) from Tues. Nov 10 - a rate of 20 daily new cases/10K population; 7 day average is currently 226 (11.3 daily new cases/10K)).
(11-15-2020, 02:54 PM)M T Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020, 12:35 PM)oregontim Wrote: [ -> ]Schools are mostly online only. Counties having fewer than 100 cases per 100K over the last 14 days and less than 8% positivity can have hybrid learning for K-3. For 4-12 they have to have fewer than 50 cases per 100K over the last 14 days and less than 5% positive. Our schools in Eugene are staying remote until at least January.

Can you clarify your numbers?   "100 cases per thousand"   Is that over the last 9 months, or some sort of ongoing average?

Yes, thanks M T, my original was sloppy. I've corrected it on the original and in the quote here, so the error no longer shows. For others, I did have an error there, now corrected.

(11-13-2020, 05:11 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-13-2020, 05:08 PM)BostonCard Wrote: [ -> ]Oregon right behind.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020...california

BC
Political disaster. Very unwise.

You wouldn't know it's a political disaster if you were up here in Oregon. We just drove from Eugene out to Depoe Bay on the coast with family (staying with family in quarantine, BTW) Friday and then back to Eugene today. Oregon seems mostly settled in support of the governor's caution. Nobody anywhere without a mask, businesses all complying ... during the total of five hours driving back and forth, we did encounter one Trumpism parade of 10 pickups with flags, today, Sunday ... the rest of the traffic quietly ignoring them, passing in the left lane, and avoiding them. No sympathetic honking. Lots of rolling eyes. Local papers reporting the new shutdown without a lot of comment.
(11-13-2020, 05:11 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: [ -> ]Political disaster. Very unwise.
(11-15-2020, 06:06 PM)oregontim Wrote: [ -> ]You wouldn't know it's a political disaster if you were up here in Oregon. We just drove from Eugene out to Depoe Bay on the coast with family (staying with family in quarantine, BTW) Friday and then back to Eugene today. Oregon seems mostly settled in support of the governor's caution. Nobody anywhere without a mask, businesses all complying ... during the total of five hours driving back and forth, we did encounter one Trumpism parade of 10 pickups with flags, today, Sunday ... the rest of the traffic quietly ignoring them, passing in the left lane, and avoiding them. No sympathetic honking. Lots of rolling eyes. Local papers reporting the new shutdown without a lot of comment.
+1.

Had a zoom call earlier today with my friends back home in Oregon (where I grew up). One is an ortho whose business was devastated from the shutdown in the spring, and has been recovering ever since. She's worried non-emergency dental work will be next to shutdown. Nevertheless, she went out of her way to say she was debating about writing Governor Brown a personal note thanking her for following the science and aggressively putting the public health above politics. (Notably, her sister is the chief attending at my hometown hospital's emergency room, and she's seen her ICU SWELL with patients in the last 10 days, and says things are going to get dire really fast if something doesn't stop it.)

Notably, my other Oregon-based friends on the zoom, each of whom lives in one of several other cities in the state, seemed not the slightest bit perturbed by the governor's order - if anything, they're furious at the anti-maskers for turning this into a year-long ordeal. And several have kids who've had to attend school remotely essentially non-stop since March.

I'm sure there's a self-selection effect, but that self-selection long (20+ years) precedes COVID. Among my crew, it doesn't sound like a political disaster to constituents who are among those most affected (both positively and negatively) from the shutdown.
(11-15-2020, 06:39 PM)2006alum Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-13-2020, 05:11 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: [ -> ]Political disaster. Very unwise.
(11-15-2020, 06:06 PM)oregontim Wrote: [ -> ]You wouldn't know it's a political disaster if you were up here in Oregon. We just drove from Eugene out to Depoe Bay on the coast with family (staying with family in quarantine, BTW) Friday and then back to Eugene today. Oregon seems mostly settled in support of the governor's caution. Nobody anywhere without a mask, businesses all complying ... during the total of five hours driving back and forth, we did encounter one Trumpism parade of 10 pickups with flags, today, Sunday ... the rest of the traffic quietly ignoring them, passing in the left lane, and avoiding them. No sympathetic honking. Lots of rolling eyes. Local papers reporting the new shutdown without a lot of comment.
+1.

Had a zoom call earlier today with my friends back home in Oregon (where I grew up). One is an ortho whose business was devastated from the shutdown in the spring, and has been recovering ever since. She's worried non-emergency dental work will be next to shutdown. Nevertheless, she went out of her way to say she was debating about writing Governor Brown a personal note thanking her for following the science and aggressively putting the public health above politics. (Notably, her sister is the chief attending at my hometown hospital's emergency room, and she's seen her ICU SWELL with patients in the last 10 days, and says things are going to get dire really fast if something doesn't stop it.)

Notably, my other Oregon-based friends on the zoom, each of whom lives in one of several other cities in the state, seemed not the slightest bit perturbed by the governor's order - if anything, they're furious at the anti-maskers for turning this into a year-long ordeal. And several have kids who've had to attend school remotely essentially non-stop since March.

I'm sure there's a self-selection effect, but that self-selection long (20+ years) precedes COVID. Among my crew, it doesn't sound like a political disaster to constituents who are among those most affected (both positively and negatively) from the shutdown.
...

(11-15-2020, 06:39 PM)2006alum Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-13-2020, 05:11 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: [ -> ]Political disaster. Very unwise.
(11-15-2020, 06:06 PM)oregontim Wrote: [ -> ]You wouldn't know it's a political disaster if you were up here in Oregon. We just drove from Eugene out to Depoe Bay on the coast with family (staying with family in quarantine, BTW) Friday and then back to Eugene today. Oregon seems mostly settled in support of the governor's caution. Nobody anywhere without a mask, businesses all complying ... during the total of five hours driving back and forth, we did encounter one Trumpism parade of 10 pickups with flags, today, Sunday ... the rest of the traffic quietly ignoring them, passing in the left lane, and avoiding them. No sympathetic honking. Lots of rolling eyes. Local papers reporting the new shutdown without a lot of comment.
+1.

Had a zoom call earlier today with my friends back home in Oregon (where I grew up). One is an ortho whose business was devastated from the shutdown in the spring, and has been recovering ever since. She's worried non-emergency dental work will be next to shutdown. Nevertheless, she went out of her way to say she was debating about writing Governor Brown a personal note thanking her for following the science and aggressively putting the public health above politics. (Notably, her sister is the chief attending at my hometown hospital's emergency room, and she's seen her ICU SWELL with patients in the last 10 days, and says things are going to get dire really fast if something doesn't stop it.)

Notably, my other Oregon-based friends on the zoom, each of whom lives in one of several other cities in the state, seemed not the slightest bit perturbed by the governor's order - if anything, they're furious at the anti-maskers for turning this into a year-long ordeal. And several have kids who've had to attend school remotely essentially non-stop since March.

I'm sure there's a self-selection effect, but that self-selection long (20+ years) precedes COVID. Among my crew, it doesn't sound like a political disaster to constituents who are among those most affected (both positively and negatively) from the shutdown.
More strident insistence on social distancing is a lot different than draconian SIP regimes, which is what I had in mind. That sort of regimen does not cause nearly the social dislocation as the SIP of six months ago.

There's probably some rough correlation with sympathy for Trump, but far more a break along the economic lines, particularly people in service industries. Many of them probably voted against Trump for various reasons. That by no means implies they accept the Democratic governor regemin uncritically. Quite the contrary- with Trump gone, criticism of unwise policy of hers can't be deflected in that direction.

FWIW, with the SIP spectre looming and Trump getting dangerously close to Aaron Burr country - actual sedition - stock market futures are showing another healthy rise tomorrow. Go figure.
Michigan is closing in person high school, college, in store dining, and high school playoffs among other things.

https://apnews.com/article/health-michig...91ad22bb44

Pro teams and some college teams are still allowed to play given enhanced testing.

I really hope all these drastic steps by these states work because there aren't many options left.
(11-15-2020, 11:31 PM)magnus Wrote: [ -> ]Pro teams and some college teams are still allowed to play given enhanced testin

Why do we still pretend their is a distinction?

BC
Some of the comments on that SD nurse tweet thread show the ugliness and stupidity of some Americans.  Apparently there was a "doctor" on that thread who said the nurse must be making it up because he'd never encountered it and had far-right parents who believed in the virus.

We're just at the early stage of the winter rush so I hope there's some coordinated way to support mental health for frontline healthcare, but seriously doubt anything will happen at the fed level.  Maybe states will start paying attention.

Another tough tweet:



Can't seem to embed the tweet although I see some people using the 
Code:
[tweet] [/tweet]
tags.  Doesn't work for me :/
I embedded the tweet for you.  I stripped out the font and color tags, since you pasted formatted text, so that may have been the problem.  If you are having problems, try pasting in the text unformatting (command + shift + v  on a mac, Ctrl + Shift + V on a PC).



BC
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