05-18-2018, 12:45 PM
Recovered from yesterday's win over #1 North Carolina yet? It doesn't get much easier, as 15th-seeded Stanford (21-3, including NCAAs) takes on the 7th-seeded Georgia Bulldogs tomorrow at 1:00pm Eastern/10:00am Pacific (they just announced the time change). Rather than have two teams play at the same time, they've gone with a staggered approach so as to keep all matches at Wake Forest and not have to send anyone to UNC. Whether it'll be indoors or outdoors will be announced at the time, but you'll be able to get live stats and video here: http://www.wakeforestsports.com/ncaatennis/. So, no risk of being sent to UNC, which is nice. If we win, we wouldn't play again until Monday, so the fact that Duke-Texas Tech (if we win, we'd play the winner) will go on three hours earlier rather than the same time is immaterial. (Rather be in our shoes and go on an hour later than planned than be Duke and have to play two hours earlier than planned.)
Georgia Preview
Georgia (18-6, including the first three rounds of NCAAs) is the #7 seed and the 7th-ranked team in the ITA rankings (Stanford is 15th). By contrast, the USTA rankings (which are based on a poll of experts rather than a calculation) have Stanford 6th and Georgia 11th. But if you thought Stanford would get an easier match after knocking off the #1 team in the country, the UTR system thinks you're mistaken. According to UTR, North Carolina was the 6th-best team in the country, while Georgia is actually #3, after only Stanford and Pepperdine. As we discussed yesterday, that means much tighter UTR matchups across the board:
1. #15 Gordon vs. #12 Katarina Jokic (Gordon has a 0.18 UTR advantage)
2. #40 Lord vs. #75 Kennedy Shaffer (UTR tie)
3. #93 Lampl vs. #90 Marta Gonzalez (Lampl by 0.11)
4. #43 Arbuthnott vs. Mariana Gould (Arbuthnott by just 0.10)
5. #96 Shin vs. Elena Christofi (Shin by just 0.06)
6. #102 Higuchi vs. #103 Morgan Coppoc (Higuchi trails by 0.09)
Thus, while Stanford is favored by UTR in four of six matches, I don't think you can draw any conclusions about one player or the other being favored due to a big talent gap. There just aren't big talent gaps. Here are the doubles lineups, with dual match records in parentheses:
1. #3 Arbuthnott/Gordon (8-4) vs. #10 Christofi/Coppoc (12-2)
2. #84 Lampl/Yee (15-2) vs. #26 Gould/Jokic (16-3)
3. Lord/Shin (11-1) vs. Shaffer/Goulak (11-7)
Georgia has lost six matches this year, but that also factors into Georgia's #2 strength of schedule. In those six losses (to Duke, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Ole Miss twice), there are some lessons on how you beat Georgia: get the doubles point and win on the top 2 courts and grab another win somewhere else. That is definitely not the recipe for Stanford success we're used to seeing, but this matchup is strength on strength and weakness on weakness, which makes it more worrisome for me, because I don't have a good sense of where the wins will likely come from. In those six losses, Jokic went 1-5, Shaffer went 1-5, Gonzalez was 1-1, Gould was 1-1, Christofi was 0-4 at various points in the lineup, and Coppoc was 2-1 (also at different spots in the lineup). In doubles in those six losses, the top two courts each went 3-3, but the #3 pair went 2-4, so perhaps Lord and Shin can take advantage there.
Common opponents:
Texas: Stanford lost 4-2; Georgia won 4-2
Florida: Stanford lost 4-3; Georgia won 4-1
Both matches were without Melissa Lord, of course, so they're of limited value. Only Gordon played where she'll play now, so those comparisons could be instructive, as Jokic had a somewhat better time against them: Gordon beat Florida's Danilina in 3 sets, while Jokic didn't finish her match (but won her first set and was up a break in the second); Gordon lost to UT's Bianca Turati, while Jokic didn't finish her match there, either (Gordon lost in straight sets, while Jokic was on serve in the third). That said, Stanford has a winning record against Top 25 teams, while Georgia doesn't, and Stanford has a better road and neutral-court record than Georgia this year.
In tournament play last fall, there were a good number of Stanford-Georgia matchups, but none will repeat tomorrow: Arbuthnott actually defeated Jokic in three sets (6-1 in the third), Higuchi lost 6-4, 6-4 to Marta Gonzalez, and Lord beat Christofi 6-4, 6-4.
History with Georgia:
The last four times we've played Georgia, it's been in the NCAA quarterfinals. The last time out was in 2015, which we lost 4-1, but no current member of the Stanford lineup was on the team then (UGA's #2, Kennedy Shaffer, beat Krista Hardebeck in three sets in that one on Court 4).
Predictions:
Ugh. I'm going to pick Stanford, of course, because it's May, and you don't bet against Lele Forood in May. But I'm actually less confident about this match than North Carolina. slam.tennis sees Stanford as a 67% favorite to advance, while the same metric saw us as only a 25% chance to beat UNC, but I see this as a harder match with few clear paths. Of course, Georgia lacks clear paths, too.
I think we win doubles (winning on Courts 1 and 3), and then we get singles wins from Lord at #2, Arbuthnott at #4, and Shin at #5. If one of them falters, then I think Higuchi wins a closer one than she's used to at #6 to get us through. I'd love for Michaela Gordon's first NCAA win to be a big one, and over a fellow highly-ranked freshman no less (Gordon and Jokic are the two highest-ranked freshmen in the country, FYI), but that one will go down to the wire. I don't think Higuchi will lose (I will never predict Emma Higuchi to lose), but she may be pressed more than usual. UTR says 2, 4, 5, and 6 will be close, but I just can't make my mind think Stanford will lose any of those matches, not with the way Lord, Arbuthnott, Shin, and Higuchi are playing right now.
Like I will keep saying, our NCAA hopes rest on how well Lampl and Arbuthnott do, so I'd like to see Lampl get a big win, too. Not to disrespect St. John's, but I think success breeds success with Lampl more than some others on the team, so getting her going with a big win over a ranked opponent could be a real shot in the arm for our title chances. We'll need to win some third sets to advance here, so be ready with the antacids!
Georgia Preview
Georgia (18-6, including the first three rounds of NCAAs) is the #7 seed and the 7th-ranked team in the ITA rankings (Stanford is 15th). By contrast, the USTA rankings (which are based on a poll of experts rather than a calculation) have Stanford 6th and Georgia 11th. But if you thought Stanford would get an easier match after knocking off the #1 team in the country, the UTR system thinks you're mistaken. According to UTR, North Carolina was the 6th-best team in the country, while Georgia is actually #3, after only Stanford and Pepperdine. As we discussed yesterday, that means much tighter UTR matchups across the board:
1. #15 Gordon vs. #12 Katarina Jokic (Gordon has a 0.18 UTR advantage)
2. #40 Lord vs. #75 Kennedy Shaffer (UTR tie)
3. #93 Lampl vs. #90 Marta Gonzalez (Lampl by 0.11)
4. #43 Arbuthnott vs. Mariana Gould (Arbuthnott by just 0.10)
5. #96 Shin vs. Elena Christofi (Shin by just 0.06)
6. #102 Higuchi vs. #103 Morgan Coppoc (Higuchi trails by 0.09)
Thus, while Stanford is favored by UTR in four of six matches, I don't think you can draw any conclusions about one player or the other being favored due to a big talent gap. There just aren't big talent gaps. Here are the doubles lineups, with dual match records in parentheses:
1. #3 Arbuthnott/Gordon (8-4) vs. #10 Christofi/Coppoc (12-2)
2. #84 Lampl/Yee (15-2) vs. #26 Gould/Jokic (16-3)
3. Lord/Shin (11-1) vs. Shaffer/Goulak (11-7)
Georgia has lost six matches this year, but that also factors into Georgia's #2 strength of schedule. In those six losses (to Duke, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Ole Miss twice), there are some lessons on how you beat Georgia: get the doubles point and win on the top 2 courts and grab another win somewhere else. That is definitely not the recipe for Stanford success we're used to seeing, but this matchup is strength on strength and weakness on weakness, which makes it more worrisome for me, because I don't have a good sense of where the wins will likely come from. In those six losses, Jokic went 1-5, Shaffer went 1-5, Gonzalez was 1-1, Gould was 1-1, Christofi was 0-4 at various points in the lineup, and Coppoc was 2-1 (also at different spots in the lineup). In doubles in those six losses, the top two courts each went 3-3, but the #3 pair went 2-4, so perhaps Lord and Shin can take advantage there.
Common opponents:
Texas: Stanford lost 4-2; Georgia won 4-2
Florida: Stanford lost 4-3; Georgia won 4-1
Both matches were without Melissa Lord, of course, so they're of limited value. Only Gordon played where she'll play now, so those comparisons could be instructive, as Jokic had a somewhat better time against them: Gordon beat Florida's Danilina in 3 sets, while Jokic didn't finish her match (but won her first set and was up a break in the second); Gordon lost to UT's Bianca Turati, while Jokic didn't finish her match there, either (Gordon lost in straight sets, while Jokic was on serve in the third). That said, Stanford has a winning record against Top 25 teams, while Georgia doesn't, and Stanford has a better road and neutral-court record than Georgia this year.
In tournament play last fall, there were a good number of Stanford-Georgia matchups, but none will repeat tomorrow: Arbuthnott actually defeated Jokic in three sets (6-1 in the third), Higuchi lost 6-4, 6-4 to Marta Gonzalez, and Lord beat Christofi 6-4, 6-4.
History with Georgia:
The last four times we've played Georgia, it's been in the NCAA quarterfinals. The last time out was in 2015, which we lost 4-1, but no current member of the Stanford lineup was on the team then (UGA's #2, Kennedy Shaffer, beat Krista Hardebeck in three sets in that one on Court 4).
Predictions:
Ugh. I'm going to pick Stanford, of course, because it's May, and you don't bet against Lele Forood in May. But I'm actually less confident about this match than North Carolina. slam.tennis sees Stanford as a 67% favorite to advance, while the same metric saw us as only a 25% chance to beat UNC, but I see this as a harder match with few clear paths. Of course, Georgia lacks clear paths, too.
I think we win doubles (winning on Courts 1 and 3), and then we get singles wins from Lord at #2, Arbuthnott at #4, and Shin at #5. If one of them falters, then I think Higuchi wins a closer one than she's used to at #6 to get us through. I'd love for Michaela Gordon's first NCAA win to be a big one, and over a fellow highly-ranked freshman no less (Gordon and Jokic are the two highest-ranked freshmen in the country, FYI), but that one will go down to the wire. I don't think Higuchi will lose (I will never predict Emma Higuchi to lose), but she may be pressed more than usual. UTR says 2, 4, 5, and 6 will be close, but I just can't make my mind think Stanford will lose any of those matches, not with the way Lord, Arbuthnott, Shin, and Higuchi are playing right now.
Like I will keep saying, our NCAA hopes rest on how well Lampl and Arbuthnott do, so I'd like to see Lampl get a big win, too. Not to disrespect St. John's, but I think success breeds success with Lampl more than some others on the team, so getting her going with a big win over a ranked opponent could be a real shot in the arm for our title chances. We'll need to win some third sets to advance here, so be ready with the antacids!
