(08-05-2023, 06:42 AM)Farm93 Wrote: If you look at Stanford just in terms of incremental TV in football revenue when a 4-8 to 8-4 type program it really is no better than Cal, OSU or WSU. Sure a 10-2 Stanford team might do OK getting ratings, but that's true for most D1 programs. The objective in this incremental TV revenue game is to find a program that will be accretive to a conference even at 6-6 or so. That means a team can still pack at the end of the season when is it 4-5 the house with a passionate and rowdy crowd. Best if a program can even do that if given 11AM or 9PM kick-off times and also get big chunks of a region to watch on TV. In other words NOT OSU, WSU, Stanford or Cal. That's why those four are where they are. It has been a multi-decade trend. Harbaugh's resurgence and Shaw's multiple 8+ win seasons hid the trend's impact for a bit, but ultimately the Pac-12 CG at Stanford Stadium managed to reveal the financial and ratings reality.
The super conferences do not want to add a football program that can't fill its own stadium for a CG game. Even if the kickoff game is on a Tuesday at 10PM on a rainy night, that stadium needs to be at 100% of capacity and also command a massive TV following to be the type of program that would win at this musical chairs game of incremental TV revenue.
FWIW - I suspect Northwestern & Vanderbilt wouldn't really do much better at filling a CG venue but they are already in the future super conferences. We haven't gotten to a place where schools get kicked out of conferences, but perhaps that will be the next step in this never ending drive for incremental revenue.
It's the harsh reality.
I think that the recent, admittedly glorious, run of success both (1) was due to situational factors which were virtually impossible to sustain and (2) exposed the hard limits on why Stanford could never really be a true national power in that sport, or in the money sports generally. It doesn't really fit the university culture, the alumni culture as a whole.
Sure, enough alumni were happy to hop on the Rose Bowl bandwagon as a kind of luxury handbag, a seasonal fashion that was "cool" ('Hey, look, we're suddenly good at football, how cool is that!?!"), but the actual interest, year-in, year-out, for any sports, is not a part of the university's culture. The university community, alumni community, is extremely supportive of the idea of Stanford having very competitive athletics overall as an idea, as a concept (just like it's extremely supportive of the idea of Stanford having world-class competitive anything, frankly, academic or athletic), but it isn't actually terribly interested in showing up to watch the sports (whether money or not) in the kind of numbers you need to have that kind of fanbase, nor is the university capable of retaining a core of non-alumni fans to do that, either, due to the inherently exclusive nature of the university community.
All of that makes it just really hard to maintain this kind of thing in a way that seems to fit with an Oregon, a USC, a Michigan, etc. It doesn't even fit very well with a UW or a UofA either, really. Yes, it's more like Northwestern (my son graduated from there a couple of years ago, it's not that different in many ways from Stanford in terms of the attitude of its community, but of course it does not have anything close to Stanford's history of athletic excellence) or Vanderbilt, but they are lucky to be in conferences that are "winners" and not the one that was next on the block -- as you say it remains to be seen whether that tenure remains secure.
Really, it's not the worst thing in the world. Maintaining the success in football was proving extremely hard, Pac or no Pac. College sports are changing, college football is changing. In ways that really don't fit Stanford as an institution -- not just the values, but also the facts of how our alumni base actually is. Hopefully we can find a way to maintain a semblance of a football program, either as an independent or as a mid-major, but if not then that isn't a total disaster, either. It wouldn't be my preferred option, but it certainly wouldn't be shocking, either, given the way that the wind has been blowing for a while now.