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The short intro to Iowa Football... - BrewHawk - 12-11-2015

Hey there Cardinal fans.  Obviously excited to get back to the RB after being away from it for too long.  We should have been there in 2002, but the BCS selection order jacked it all up.  Anywho, just a few initial words to let you know a little bit about the Hawks this year and then I will post again to give a more detailed breakdown.

One of the first things you need to know is that Iowa is Iowa, no matter who we play you're going to get the same schemes and the same personnel.  I've wondered at times why we don't come up with just a few things to take advantage of a given opponent or situation, but that's just not what Kirk Ferentz is about.  We are built to do what we do better than you do what you do.

KF wants to develop an NFL ready, complete football player who can take on anything they face.  The system favors experience over raw athleticism and works great when you have a mature/developed player, but really suffers when you don't.  Iowa has been mediocre recently mostly because a 50% attrition rate from the late-oughts classes prevented the program from stockpiling mature/developed players.  Obviously, that has corrected itself and retention has payed dividends this year.  A new, more mobile QB hasn't hurt either.

Teams beat Iowa by one of two ways.  Either they out-execute them (which is the Northwestern approach, historically), or the talent gap is just too much to overcome (the OSU approach, historically).  Any shortfall in either area usually leads to a Hawkeye victory.

This is why I don't like our chances vs. you guys.  Stanford seems to be a program structured on solid execution, but also benefits from the Cali-rich talent pool that we don't have in Iowa (one that produces 10 D-1 players in a good year).  I'm not giving up on the game just yet, but it's going to be a steep hill to climb to keep this one close.  I would love to see a shootout, because I don't think our D can shut you guys down, but at the same time don't know that our offense is explosive enough to be able to put a ton of points on the board.  I need to watch more Cardinal football before speaking any more on this.

Please feel free to give your thoughts on the Stanford program/approach/strategy so that I can better understand what the Hawks are up against.  Tuned in a few times last year just to watch McCaffrey because he really jumped off the page even then as a distant observer.  This season speaks for itself in regards to his ability.

Edit:  Also worth mentioning that Iowa's approaches on offense/defense and special teams are all geared to complement one another.  O is possession to keep the D off the field, D is prevent the big play to keep the offense from having to do too much and STs geared to win the field position battle.

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - rastaman85 - 12-11-2015

Howdy, Brewhawk, and welcome to the CardBoard! I'm sure I'm nor the only one who appreciates your analysis. I think the coaching philosophies are pretty similar--the Cardinal want to control TOP, bend-but-not-break with a defense that has a few holes, and outscore the opposition.

A couple of points: you mention our rich Cali talent pool--very true, but a LOT of  notable Stanford players are from out of state: QB Hogan is from the DC suburbs in VA, RB McCaffrey from CO, Outland-winning G Garnett from WA, WR Rector from WA, WR Cajuste from NJ, DL Scarlett from OR, DL Thomas from TX, LB Martinez from AZ, etc.

Stanford's offense is the most exciting ground and pound since the great Big 8 Colorado and Oklahoma teams, IMHO. There have been games when Hogan has passed fewer than 15 times--but the OL and the RB's just dominated.

Watch our for #20, frosh RB Bryce Love. Even faster than McCaffrey.

Is your CB with 8 picks as good as it seems on paper?

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - stupac2 - 12-11-2015

(12-11-2015, 11:59 AM)BrewHawk link Wrote:One of the first things you need to know is that Iowa is Iowa, no matter who we play you're going to get the same schemes and the same personnel.  I've wondered at times why we don't come up with just a few things to take advantage of a given opponent or situation, but that's just not what Kirk Ferentz is about.  We are built to do what we do better than you do what you do.

KF wants to develop an NFL ready, complete football player who can take on anything they face.  The system favors experience over raw athleticism and works great when you have a mature/developed player, but really suffers when you don't. [...]

Also worth mentioning that Iowa's approaches on offense/defense and special teams are all geared to complement one another.  O is possession to keep the D off the field, D is prevent the big play to keep the offense from having to do too much and STs geared to win the field position battle.

Holy crap it's like looking in a mirror.


So, yeah, that's basically Shaw's approach too, which he typically summarizes as  "run the ball and stop the run". We try to run efficiently and then use play action to get big chunks of yardage. On defense we tend to be okay allowing short completions, figuring that very few college QBs can get the 10+ completions you need in order to keep a drive going 5 yards at a time (which is true!). We try to take away big plays, which has mostly worked but really good QBs with fast skill players have sometimes given us issues this year (ND, Oregon) but other times haven't (USC, UCLA sort of?). We also generally have solid special teams, this year our punting and FGs have been solid, but kickoffs are an adventure (lots of OB kicks, very few touchbacks).

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - BrewHawk - 12-11-2015

(12-11-2015, 12:12 PM)rastaman85 link Wrote:Howdy, Brewhawk, and welcome to the CardBoard! I'm sure I'm nor the only one who appreciates your analysis. I think the coaching philosophies are pretty similar--the Cardinal want to control TOP, bend-but-not-break with a defense that has a few holes, and outscore the opposition.

A couple of points: you mention our rich Cali talent pool--very true, but a LOT of  notable Stanford players are from out of state: QB Hogan is from the DC suburbs in VA, RB McCaffrey from CO, Outland-winning G Garnett from WA, WR Rector from WA, WR Cajuste from NJ, DL Scarlett from OR, DL Thomas from TX, LB Martinez from AZ, etc.

Makes sense due to the academic prestige.  I've visited the Stanford campus and certainly would have a hard time turning down any offer from the Cardinal.

Stanford's offense is the most exciting ground and pound since the great Big 8 Colorado and Oklahoma teams, IMHO. There have been games when Hogan has passed fewer than 15 times--but the OL and the RB's just dominated.

Watch our for #20, frosh RB Bryce Love. Even faster than McCaffrey.

Is your CB with 8 picks as good as it seems on paper?

He's awfully solid in all phases.  About the only thing he lacks is elite top end speed, but is fast enough in most instances.  The safeties can be had with play-action deep post patterns if the WR beats the DB off the LOS.  Tough to do when Iowa plays a softer zone.  Teams stopped going at King after seeing enough game tape and instead targeted LBs in the slot and the opposite corner, Mabin, who isn't bad, but can get lost in coverage from time to time.


Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - ColoradoTree - 12-11-2015

(12-11-2015, 12:20 PM)BrewHawk link Wrote:Is your CB with 8 picks as good as it seems on paper?

He's awfully solid in all phases.  About the only thing he lacks is elite top end speed, but is fast enough in most instances.  The safeties can be had with play-action deep post patterns if the WR beats the DB off the LOS.  Tough to do when Iowa plays a softer zone.  Teams stopped going at King after seeing enough game tape and instead targeted LBs in the slot and the opposite corner, Mabin, who isn't bad, but can get lost in coverage from time to time.

Like others have said, thanks for stopping by and offering some analysis.  (We're usually a pretty cordial crew around here, and we always appreciate good discussions with opposing fans.  Not a whole lot of trolling, thank goodness!)

And targeting LBs in the slot sounds like how we'd probably play anyway.  We've got a few guys that can turn on the jets and make plays downfield down the sidelines, but for the most part, we take advantage of LB coverage to use our very good TEs, as well as larger-than-average WR, Devon Cajuste, to get decent chunks of yardage in the middle of the field. 

That said, I can't see David Shaw abandoning an entire side of the field in the passing game, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him put Cajuste on that side of the field or split out one of our TEs to get some size mismatches against King, while putting Michael Rector on the second CB and try and see if he can get some separation on that side.  We wouldn't be running go routes on King in that situation with a bigger receiver, but probably some curls, comebacks, and dig routes, and maybe some post routes to come back across the middle of the field.  Interested to see how it all plays out!

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - washingtonismoney - 12-11-2015

LBs bad in coverage .... sounds like a recipe for McCaffrey destruction in the pass game. Stanford burned both Washington and SC with this approach. And, to be honest, can also get Hooper (the TE) involved if we chooes. A lot of options!

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - GoodGrief - 12-11-2015

holy cow, this is totally going to be the Stubborn Bowl.

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - DC - 12-11-2015

With both teams running a lot and with less clock stoppage for an incomplete pass and fewer stops for 1st downs, the game may be short and cut down the time we have enjoying sitting in the stadium and watching a game.

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - ChicagoCard - 12-11-2015

Both sides should come to a gentlemen's agreement on playing an extra quarter.

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - jacketree - 12-11-2015

(12-11-2015, 12:18 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:Holy crap it's like looking in a mirror.

That was my first thought as well.  Feels just like the MSU Rose Bowl.  It will come down to turnovers, finishing drives, turning pick sixes into pick sixes (doomed Stanford against MSU), and getting that fourth and short.  I guess like every other game, but I don't see either team imposing its will, so it will be the little things.  I think some healing time will help Stanford's defense regain some strength.

Any significant Hawkeye injuries?

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - BrewHawk - 12-11-2015

(12-11-2015, 12:42 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:LBs bad in coverage .... sounds like a recipe for McCaffrey destruction in the pass game. Stanford burned both Washington and SC with this approach. And, to be honest, can also get Hooper (the TE) involved if we chooes. A lot of options!

I don't think our LBs are bad in coverage, rather quite the opposite because we stay in our base defense so much (although we have played more nickel this year than in the past). 

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - BrewHawk - 12-11-2015

(12-11-2015, 01:25 PM)jacketree link Wrote:[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=14022.msg147515#msg147515 date=1449861524]
Holy crap it's like looking in a mirror.

That was my first thought as well.  Feels just like the MSU Rose Bowl.  It will come down to turnovers, finishing drives, turning pick sixes into pick sixes (doomed Stanford against MSU), and getting that fourth and short.  I guess like every other game, but I don't see either team imposing its will, so it will be the little things.  I think some healing time will help Stanford's defense regain some strength.

Any significant Hawkeye injuries?
[/quote]

Our top RB, Jordan Canzeri, went down early in the BTCCG with an ankle injury.  No idea what his status is at this point, but we do have capable backs behind him.

CJ Beathard has been injured most of the season and will definitely benefit from a month off.  His mobility was limited with a groin/hip injury, but gutted it out.

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - Spiny_Norman - 12-11-2015

Glad to have you here, BrewHawk.  I have some nice memories from 30 years ago when I was in Iowa City for a number of months working on a project at the Oral B plant.  1985 was a great year to be there with Iowa #1 in the country for a time and Chuck Long finishing 2nd in the Voldemort Trophy.  I attended the memorable Iowa-Michigan State game at Kinnick Stadium.  One of the best games I have ever seen.  Had some good steaks at The Lark too (which I understand is no longer there).

Anyway, congrats to the Hawkeyes on a great season.  As people start to look more closely at the matchup, they will probably compare and contrast games vs. the one common opponent - Northwestern.  Stanford really spit the bit in that game.  But that horrible effort provided motivation for the rest of the season. 

What was the Iowa story in the Northwestern game?  The score would indicate a pretty thorough whipping.

Stanford has found Big 10 defenses to be tough the past three years.  In the 2013 Rose Bowl vs. Wisconsin, the offense scored 2 TDs.  In the 2014 Rose Bowl vs. Michigan State, the offense scored only one TD.  In the season opener vs. Northwestern, the offense did not score a TD.  No Stanford rusher went for 100 yards.  Hogan's QB ratings were 55.1, 48.1 and 24.8.  My expectations are the same as GoodGrief's - a low scoring Stubborn Bowl.

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - TrumpCard - 12-11-2015

BrewHawk, thanks for the summary.  I agree that Iowa and Stanford both typically rely on having solid players who fulfill their responsibilities on both sides of the ball.  This year, Stanford has played a slightly different brand of football, which relies a bit more on having elite athletes make plays.  McCaffrey is the prime example, but not the only one.  On the other hand, this Stanford team seems to have more gaps than most prior versions of the team due in part to early departures and lack of numbers in recruiting.  The roster is well short of the NCAA max scholarship players.  There isn't a scholarship FB on the roster, nor is there a true NT on the roster, and both starting safeties are converted offensive players.  Are there any similar gaps on the Iowa roster, or do you feel that the Iowa team has at least one really solid player at every position? 

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - BostonCard - 12-11-2015

Thanks for coming.  I will try to offer up a summary of Stanford (and if you have a preferred hangout, I'd be happy to return the favor and respectfully offer my two cents on Stanford there.

BC

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - stupac2 - 12-11-2015

(12-11-2015, 02:53 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Thanks for coming.  I will try to offer up a summary of Stanford (and if you have a preferred hangout, I'd be happy to return the favor and respectfully offer my two cents on Stanford there.

BC

I don't know if this is possible, but I think the board should check for bracket/parenthesis mismatches and throw an error if there is one, especially if it's something about being unable to compile.

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - BostonCard - 12-11-2015

(12-11-2015, 02:56 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=14022.msg147555#msg147555 date=1449870835]
Thanks for coming.  I will try to offer up a summary of Stanford (and if you have a preferred hangout, I'd be happy to return the favor and respectfully offer my two cents on Stanford there.

BC

I don't know if this is possible, but I think the board should check for bracket/parenthesis mismatches and throw an error if there is one, especially if it's something about being unable to compile.
[/quote]

LOL.  I should start preparing my posts in my text editor, which autocompletes parentheses.

BC

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - MustardtheBallCarrier - 12-11-2015

I would generally describe Stanford's approach in the following way:

On offense, the Cardinal start running out the clock from the opening possession. 
When it's working: The offensive line is dominant, giving our Voldemort RB a 5 yard head start before contact.  Hogan throws enough to keep the defense honest, hitting a few deep ones to the TEs and WRs and converting enough third and 4's with his arm or legs to sustain drives.  McCaffrey and Love do their thing. 

When it's not working: The defense sells out to stop the run and we can't adjust.  Hogan loses his footwork and mechanics and can't hit open throws, which are few and far between because our WR can't get any separation.  Penalties and lack of run game are putting us in second and long, and our offensive personnel are not equipped to convert third and 5+.  We are 2-5 in Hogan's career in games where he has 30+ pass attempts.

Our defense is as good as a defense can be that is ranked 69th in sacks (only after "erupting" for 4 in the most recent game vs. SC) and 115th in creating turnovers.  Bend but don't break has never been more appropriate a description.
When it's working: The defensive front can at least disrupt the QB, our run defense is solid and the secondary is keeping everything in front of them.  We can force a timely turnover and get to the QB on a key third down.  The opposing team stalls out in the red zone repeatedly.

When it's not working: Inability to create any big plays on defense forces us into complete bend but don't break mode.  Opposing team executes in the red zone and puts up 7's instead of 3's.  Opposing QB can dance around at will, with all day to find deep throws over the top or shorter throws to move the chains.  Our safeties take some non-geometrically sound angles in run support and we give up long runs.

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - stupac2 - 12-11-2015

(12-11-2015, 03:26 PM)MustardtheBallCarrier link Wrote:Penalties and lack of run game are putting us in second and long, and our offensive personnel are not equipped to convert third and 5+.

Everything here is spot on, but I want to point out that this plays into Iowa's hands. Iowa is very good at defending passing downs*, and we're bad at converting them. Staying ahead of the chains with successful plays will be important for us.


*I think everyone intuitively knows what a "passing down" is, but generally it's anything longer than 1st and 10, 2nd and 6, or 3rd and 3, or "you can't convert averaging 3.5-yard runs".

Re: The short intro to Iowa Football... - BrewHawk - 12-11-2015

(12-11-2015, 03:35 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=MustardtheBallCarrier link=topic=14022.msg147567#msg147567 date=1449872762]Penalties and lack of run game are putting us in second and long, and our offensive personnel are not equipped to convert third and 5+.

Everything here is spot on, but I want to point out that this plays into Iowa's hands. Iowa is very good at defending passing downs*, and we're bad at converting them. Staying ahead of the chains with successful plays will be important for us.


*I think everyone intuitively knows what a "passing down" is, but generally it's anything longer than 1st and 10, 2nd and 6, or 3rd and 3, or "you can't convert averaging 3.5-yard runs".
[/quote]

Thanks to you and Mustard for the thoughts.  This game is definitely going to match two teams with more similarities than differences, that's for sure.