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The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - OutsiderFan - 10-22-2017

Southern ןɐɔ's evisceration in South Bend was the final nail in the Pac-12's coffin for a playoff berth.  Even if Washington or WSU were to somehow win the conference with 1-loss, the best OOC win the Pac-12 has to date is, uh...

Southern ןɐɔ beating Texas in OT?  It's looking quite bleak.  Now Stanford could conceivably beat ND, which would easily be the best OOC win for the conference, but Stanford would at best have two losses.

But making matters worse is that Stanford and ASU both lost to what we now know to be a mediocre SDSU team.  Arizona, who may well win the South, lost to Houston.  ASU could still win it too, but in addition to SDSU they lost to Texas Tech.

ןɐɔ lost to Washington who lost to ASU who lost to Stanford who lost to Southern ןɐɔ who lost to WSU who lost to ןɐɔ.  It just makes no sense for anyone trying to rank these teams, which is how the system works.  It's a big problem for the Pac-12 having so many teams that are competitive with each other, and I don't see it changing any time soon.

The Pac-12 could have 9 teams be bowl-eligible this year.  Only ones not: Utah, Colorado, Oregon State

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - ChicagoCard - 10-22-2017

This season, the Pac-12 cannibalized itself argument just rings hollow. As you point out, U$C got beat by five touchdowns in South Bend. SDSU has victories over Stanford and ASU. Houston beat Arizona. Also ASU lost to Texas Tech. Even some of the non-conference victories didn't look impressive -- UW-Rutgers, A&M-UCLA, WSU-Boise, Nebraska-Oregon.

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - stupac2 - 10-22-2017

Uh, if UW wins out and Stanford beats ND then they'll be in the playoff. We have an outside show if we win out.

I really don't get why people think 2 losses is disqualifying when the friggin BCS, with half as many teams, had a 2-loss champion. It's going to happen eventually and a year with a down Pac-12, ACC, and Big 12 is a good candidate.

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - OutsiderFan - 10-22-2017

Yes, well, I get a little bothered by the fact a team like Wisconsin is acclaimed for being undefeated when the reality is they have played an embarrassingly weak schedule.  Depending on how Michigan does against Minnesota, they may go the whole regular season without playing a single Top-25 team.

I know they will have their chance in the B1G championship game, but it seems intellectually dishonest to claim a team is better than others just because that team is undefeated (against weaker opponents) and others have some losses (against stronger opponents).

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - lex24 - 10-22-2017

You know the old saying- it’s not who you play, it’s when you play them. SC was healthy and primed. SDS, I think, put a ton of focus on their Pac 12 matchups. OTOH- they got Oregon without Herbert and ASU before it turned around their defense.

Win the North. Go from theirs.  That is within their control. As to what a committee says, so be it.  And if Stanford doesn’t win the Pac-12 I don’t want another Pac12 team in the series. Why should I. I’m not about to root for Wash or SC. 

There is a fair way to do this. 6 teams - the 5 power champs and an at-large which must be an independent or from a non-power 5. Rank them 1-6. Give top 2 a bye.

Any system that leaves out one conference champ is inherently flawed. And essentially bogus. 


(10-22-2017, 10:03 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Southern ןɐɔ's evisceration in South Bend was the final nail in the Pac-12's coffin for a playoff berth.  Even if Washington or WSU were to somehow win the conference with 1-loss, the best OOC win the Pac-12 has to date is, uh...

Southern ןɐɔ beating Texas in OT?  It's looking quite bleak.  Now Stanford could conceivably beat ND, which would easily be the best OOC win for the conference, but Stanford would at best have two losses.

But making matters worse is that Stanford and ASU both lost to what we now know to be a mediocre SDSU team.  Arizona, who may well win the South, lost to Houston.  ASU could still win it too, but in addition to SDSU they lost to Texas Tech.

ןɐɔ lost to Washington who lost to ASU who lost to Stanford who lost to Southern ןɐɔ who lost to WSU who lost to ןɐɔ.  It just makes no sense for anyone trying to rank these teams, which is how the system works.  It's a big problem for the Pac-12 having so many teams that are competitive with each other, and I don't see it changing any time soon.

The Pac-12 could have 9 teams be bowl-eligible this year.  Only ones not: Utah, Colorado, Oregon State


Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - martyup - 10-22-2017

Yes, win the north and be King of the north.  Winter is coming.

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - Goose - 10-22-2017

The B1G could also have a 2 loss champion. This isn't high probability, but possible if either tOSU or Michigan State beats Penn State, since both teams other loss is out of conference. tOSU would probably have to lose to Michigan for that to work. I admit I am operating on the assumption that a tie is decided by head-to-head, which I think is correct. Michigan State would have to lose to somebody like Northwestern, which is less probable, but it could happen. It would be real interesting to see what the committee would do in that case, especially in the presence of four other conference champions with 1 or fewer losses. For that matter,  if the B1G champion has 2 losses, it would be interesting to see what would happen with a 2 loss Stanford that beat ND and "erased" one loss by beating USC in the championship game. The B1G champions loss would be considered "better" I guess, unless it was Michigan State, who lost to ND. It just shows it it a bad system. We need an 8 team playoff!

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - CTcard - 10-22-2017

(10-22-2017, 10:03 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:The Pac-12 could have 9 teams be bowl-eligible this year.  Only ones not: Utah, Colorado, Oregon State

Well, the Pac 12 has eleven teams with at least four wins. So, it appears mathematically possible for the conference to have eleven bowl eligible teams.

Of course one to some won't make it. I agree in putting Colorado at the top of the list of likely not to do so.
I'd probably put Oregon next, though that depends upon whether Herbert is coming back.
Cal is the other four win team with only four games left. They do get to play Colorado and OSU still, so they have a good shot.

Not sure I'd bet against Utah, currently at 4-3. [Which is a real not-sure, not an edge of sarcasm not-sure.] They have five tries left to get two wins. They host UCLA and Colorado and travel to Oregon. All seem potentially winnable. They also host WSU, which doesn't seem an impossible task.
The key for them is the development of QB Huntley. He was playing quite well before he got injured but was atrocious in his first game back vs ASU. Was it just rust?


Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - gocard14 - 10-22-2017

To be honest if  We CFPs committee is to get the best 4 teams in the playoff then you can’t argue with them leaving off the PAC 12 at this point. Can anyone honestly say that there is a pac 12 team that looks elite this year? Right now Alabama, Georgia, PSU, TCU and ND all look good, with OKlahoma right behind them. 

I do believe that there is an East Coast bias for most schools in the PAC not named USC, which will be clearly shown in Voldemort voting. But I can’t find fault with the current thinking that no Pac-12 team is top 4 right now.

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - stupac2 - 10-22-2017

(10-22-2017, 11:23 AM)gocard14 link Wrote:To be honest if  We CFPs committee is to get the best 4 teams in the playoff then you can’t argue with them leaving off the PAC 12 at this point. Can anyone honestly say that there is a pac 12 team that looks elite this year? Right now Alabama, Georgia, PSU, TCU and ND all look good, with OKlahoma right behind them. 

I do believe that there is an East Coast bias for most schools in the PAC not named U$C, which will be clearly shown in    voting. But I can’t find fault with the current thinking that no Pac-12 team is top 4 right now.

Well sure, but currently no Pac-12 team is sniffing the top 4. The problem, of course, is that we're barely over halfway through the season. It sure looks like right now no one in the Pac-12 deserves a spot in the playoff, butt he playoff teams aren't set right now. There's a lot of football left.

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - OutsiderFan - 10-22-2017

Had ASU and Stanford beaten SDSU.  Had ASU beaten Texas Tech. Had Arizona beaten Houston.  Had UCLA beaten Memphis.  Had Southern Cal not been overwhelmed in South Bend.  And had North Carolina and Ole Miss (who Cal beat) not been the worst and one of the worst teams in the ACC and SEC, respectively...

Even a 2-loss Pac-12 champion could crash the playoff.  As it is, a 1-loss Pac-12 team doesn't look worthy because neither of those teams (UW and WSU) played a Power 5 team with a pulse OOC.  TCU didn't either, but Arkansas isn't Rutgers.

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - stupac2 - 10-22-2017

(10-22-2017, 11:35 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Had ASU and Stanford beaten SDSU.  Had ASU beaten Texas Tech. Had Arizona beaten Houston.  Had UCLA beaten Memphis.  Had Southern Cal not been overwhelmed in South Bend.  And had North Carolina and Ole Miss (who Cal beat) not been the worst and one of the worst teams in the ACC and SEC, respectively...

Even a 2-loss Pac-12 champion could crash the playoff.  As it is, a 1-loss Pac-12 team doesn't look worthy because neither of those teams (UW and WSU) played a Power 5 team with a pulse OOC.  TCU didn't either, but Arkansas isn't Rutgers.

It doesn't matter. The committee has had opportunities to show that tough OOC matters and has turned them down. A one-loss conference champion is going to get in unless all 5 champions have at most one loss.

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - Goose - 10-22-2017

(10-22-2017, 11:43 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:A one-loss conference champion is going to get in unless all 5 champions have at most one loss.
Pretty much true. If there are 4 conference champions with 1 or fewer loses, I think we would all agree that is the correct choice, unless there is a Notre Dame (or equivalent) that is unbeaten. Then, the water is a bit muddier, but even in that case, the conference championship and extra game could be used as justification. That isn't the interesting case. It is all the other outcomes that stir up interest! This year, it is quite possible we will have 2 (or 3) undefeated conference champions and 2 (or 3) with one loss, with ND also at one loss. OTOH, we could also have two conferences with champions that have 2 losses. These, and lots of others, are the ones that stir up opinion. Lots of football still to be played, but it could produce a real mess. As I understand it, Shaw has been an advocate for an 8 team playoff from the beginning. I think that makes a lot of sense. You may get one or two teams involved that have no chance to win it all, but you would for sure get everybody that does have a real shot. 6 may not be enough in some special cases, like if an exceptionally good team gets beat in the conference championship game. You may still want them involved. 8 is enough.

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - riffelbooks - 10-22-2017

And that Pac-12 quality OOC win is?

Just one that I've seen, UCLA's ridiculous comeback over Texas A&M. Washington might indeed get in the playoff if the Huskies win out, but there are a lot of teams in line ahead of them.

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself -- Win out for Fiesta Bowl - ADPATERSON - 10-22-2017

At 5-2 we get @ORST, then toughest game of year @WAST, host WASH for what could decide North if we go in at 7-2. We take down the 59ers at home, and then wrap up on National TV with NDAM. Looks like we earn Fiesta Bowl if Pac12 champ, and beat NDAM. Runner up perhaps Alamo Bowl. But otherwise we need to be at 9-3 to land in Holiday Bowl against maybe Harbaugh and MICH.  I refuse to talk of Foster Frozen Chicken Bowl, a demotion.  Alums largely refuse to attend it.  The stdents hate that bowl -- the dorms are closed that week !

We did not play this weekend, so we did not look as bad as U$C at South Bend, and ESPN bumped us up to #1 in Pac12. Both WA schools got thrashed last weekend, hence our move up.  Bryce "the pocket rocket" Love is a major reason, as other Stiffarm trophy hopefuls have stumbled -- Darnold for SC @NDAM, and Baker Mayfield for OKLA last weekend.  Right now it looks like Saquan vs Bryce.
http://www.espn.com/blog/pac12
No two loss team will make Playoff, period. 

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself -- Win out for Fiesta Bowl - stupac2 - 10-22-2017

(10-22-2017, 12:51 PM)ADPATERSON link Wrote:No two loss team will make Playoff, period.

Do you mean this year, or ever? Because "ever" is obviously wrong, we had 2-loss teams make the BCS when it was only top-2. Double field and it'll happen more often. If you mean this year then you're kind of assuming a lot, it's entirely possible that there are 2-loss winners from the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12, plus 2-loss ND, with no obvious teams sitting out CCGs with only 1 loss. So do they just call the whole thing off?

I really don't understand where this attitude comes from.

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - SamAtoms1980 - 10-22-2017

(10-22-2017, 11:35 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:. . . . but Arkansas isn't Rutgers.


You got that right:

Rutgers just beat Purdue, who had been having success putting together a cute little run towards respectability.  Arkansas, quite honestly, has done a good impression of a platter of barbecued carnitas this year.

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - winflop - 10-22-2017

A 12-1 UW/WSU or 11-2 Stanford has a very good chance to make the playoff - depending on what happens in the Big 12

12-1 UW/WSU would have victories over the other two + P12 championship all in November/December
11-2 Stanford would have the same plus a win over the Golden Gomers

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - CTcard - 10-22-2017

(10-22-2017, 03:14 PM)winflop link Wrote:A 12-1 UW/WSU or 11-2 Stanford has a very good chance to make the playoff - depending on what happens in the Big 12

12-1 UW/WSU would have victories over the other two + P12 championship all in November/December
11-2 Stanford would have the same plus a win over the Golden Gomers

Possibly true. It all depends upon what happens everywhere else.

So far, the primary job of the cfp committee has been choosing among one-loss conference champs, with the slight caveat that it does not necessarily consider the conference champ to be the one crowned by the conference (see tOSU 2016).

So, obviously 1 loss UW or WSU would be in the mix. If there are only four conference champs with one or fewer losses, they'd make it for sure.

[Effectively, "choosing among conference champs" includes the winner of the und conference, which so far has not been in the zero or one loss category.]

One day that will extend to choosing among two-loss conference champs, if the system lasts long enough. If that happens this year, and Stanford were a two-loss champ, they'd be in the mix. The other two-loss champ would have flaws as well, but impossible to predict the outcome without details.


It will be interesting to see when if ever the committee chooses a second team from a single conference. I suspect there would have to be a two-game difference in the loss column for that to happen - or something really extreme in the schedule.



Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - Goose - 10-22-2017

(10-22-2017, 03:14 PM)winflop link Wrote:A 12-1 UW/WSU or 11-2 Stanford has a very good chance to make the playoff - depending on what happens in the Big 12
I would add what happens in the B1G. If Penn State is defeated by MSU or tOSU, there could be a two loss champion there. Naturally, all kinds of chaos is theoretically possible, but if we limit it to events with > 5% probability, I would say this is in the mix.