It's going to get worse before it gets better - Printable Version
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: It's going to get worse before it gets better (/thread-16574.html)
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: It's going to get worse before it gets better (/thread-16574.html)
It's going to get worse before it gets better - BostonCard - 10-08-2018
The last few games have shown that we have some very concerning holes at key positions. The concern is that a lot of these positions have gaping recruiting holes.
Going to refer to the handy-dandy personnel matrix:
https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=16215
For example, consider OL, the subject of much discussion:
Of our five starters, three (Burkett, Hall, and Fanaika) are on their fourth year of eligibility and won't be back next year. A fourth is still a junior, but he has the measurables to go pro after this year (though given the performance of the OL, I'm thinking he might want to be back). Now look at the holes behind them, especially at guard.
At C, Drew Dalman probably gets the start next year, since he started during Burkett's injury. There was a big-ish drop-off, but hopefully Dalman is on the steep part of the learning curve and the fact he'll have had at least some experience starting is a plus.
At tackle, we should be ok with Little and Sarrell, though the latter has been injured and the former has not played as well as he did as a true freshman. It gets scary if Little goes pro after his junior year.
At guard, if Herbig leaves, we have Hamilton, an injured converted tackle and maybe an ineffective Nick Wilson or a redshirt freshman. Yikes!
No matter what there is not a lot of depth, and if we have injuries as we have had this year, we are looking at playing some true freshmen.
At Safety, Edwards and Simmons will be gone, leaving Buncom and Antoine, and a couple of redshirt freshmen who have seen no real action. I won't say anything about our current starting safeties, but will refer you to Phogge's ascerbic post about them https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=16561&pid=232011#pid232011
Likewise at inside linebacker, we are looking at a big hole as Okereke, Branch, and Perez all depart, leaving Barton and ? as an ILB for next year. Gotta hope the two guys redshirting can learn quickly.
Even at running back, we will have to plan for life post-Love, and while I suppose that with a better line Speights might be serviceable, see my biggest area of concern.
Finally, at QB, I assume Costello stays another year, even though he is draft eligible, and we are reasonably ok with Costello/Mills/West plus Richardson as a back-up. But Mills has yet to string together more than a couple months uninjured, and West is an unknown quality with mixed reviews (see slide's reply to Phogge's other ascerbic post: https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=16566)
Now to some extent we go through this every year. For years we fretted that our situation at defensive line was going to be critical, and somehow we managed to muddle through (the situation at DL isn't great this year either, but at least we have some depth with no one exhausting eligibility or likely to go pro early and some good young talent). We've had concerning holes on the OL before, and we had worries about QB's after Hogan graduated (which wound up well-founded). But it seems like given where we are now at some critical positions and the gaps lying behind, it will take some young, unproven players really stepping up, plus luck in the injury front, not to have critical weaknesses next year.
BC
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - donkey687 - 10-08-2018
(10-08-2018, 07:55 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The last few games have shown that we have some very concerning holes at key positions. The concern is that a lot of these positions have gaping recruiting holes.
Going to refer to the handy-dandy personnel matrix:
https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=16215
For example, consider OL, the subject of much discussion:
Of our five starters, three (Burkett, Hall, and Fanaika) are on their fourth year of eligibility and won't be back next year. A fourth is still a junior, but he has the measurables to go pro after this year (though given the performance of the OL, I'm thinking he might want to be back). Now look at the holes behind them, especially at guard.
At C, Drew Dalman probably gets the start next year, since he started during Burkett's injury. There was a big-ish drop-off, but hopefully Dalman is on the steep part of the learning curve and the fact he'll have had at least some experience starting is a plus.
At tackle, we should be ok with Little and Sarrell, though the latter has been injured and the former has not played as well as he did as a true freshman. It gets scary if Little goes pro after his junior year.
At guard, if Herbig leaves, we have Hamilton, an injured converted tackle and maybe an ineffective Nick Wilson or a redshirt freshman. Yikes!
No matter what there is not a lot of depth, and if we have injuries as we have had this year, we are looking at playing some true freshmen.
At Safety, Edwards and Simmons will be gone, leaving Buncom and Antoine, and a couple of redshirt freshmen who have seen no real action. I won't say anything about our current starting safeties, but will refer you to Phogge's ascerbic post about them https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=16561&pid=232011#pid232011
Likewise at inside linebacker, we are looking at a big hole as Okereke, Branch, and Perez all depart, leaving Barton and ? as an ILB for next year. Gotta hope the two guys redshirting can learn quickly.
Even at running back, we will have to plan for life post-Love, and while I suppose that with a better line Speights might be serviceable, see my biggest area of concern.
Finally, at QB, I assume Costello stays another year, even though he is draft eligible, and we are reasonably ok with Costello/Mills/West plus Richardson as a back-up. But Mills has yet to string together more than a couple months uninjured, and West is an unknown quality with mixed reviews (see slide's reply to Phogge's other ascerbic post: https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=16566)
Now to some extent we go through this every year. For years we fretted that our situation at defensive line was going to be critical, and somehow we managed to muddle through (the situation at DL isn't great this year either, but at least we have some depth with no one exhausting eligibility or likely to go pro early and some good young talent). We've had concerning holes on the OL before, and we had worries about QB's after Hogan graduated (which wound up well-founded). But it seems like given where we are now at some critical positions and the gaps lying behind, it will take some young, unproven players really stepping up, plus luck in the injury front, not to have critical weaknesses next year.
BC
The sky is falling said Chicken Little. We have a lot of things to fret about after the last two games, but replacing Fanaika who is only playing because 2 other guys got hurt, replacing Branch who doesn't play much, replacing Edwards and Simmons who haven't played much due to injury and worrying about guys who are not lighting the world afire around going pro early are not insurmountable obstables. Losing Love, Hall, Okereke, Holder and Burkett are major losses, but as you said, we go through that every year and then some. Our younger safeties are probably better than the guys we are losing. Dalman will have some experience replacing Burkett. We have some young talented corners who will play more next year. We have one of the most highly touted running backs that we have ever had coming in next year. The biggest loss will probably be early entry JJAW, but we have lots of young talent in the WR ranks. We will be okay albeit thin on the OL depth beyond the top 5-6 guys.
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - d4cohn - 10-08-2018
(10-08-2018, 09:56 PM)donkey687 Wrote:(10-08-2018, 07:55 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The last few games have shown that we have some very concerning holes at key positions. The concern is that a lot of these positions have gaping recruiting holes.
Going to refer to the handy-dandy personnel matrix:
https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=16215
For example, consider OL, the subject of much discussion:
Of our five starters, three (Burkett, Hall, and Fanaika) are on their fourth year of eligibility and won't be back next year. A fourth is still a junior, but he has the measurables to go pro after this year (though given the performance of the OL, I'm thinking he might want to be back). Now look at the holes behind them, especially at guard.
At C, Drew Dalman probably gets the start next year, since he started during Burkett's injury. There was a big-ish drop-off, but hopefully Dalman is on the steep part of the learning curve and the fact he'll have had at least some experience starting is a plus.
At tackle, we should be ok with Little and Sarrell, though the latter has been injured and the former has not played as well as he did as a true freshman. It gets scary if Little goes pro after his junior year.
At guard, if Herbig leaves, we have Hamilton, an injured converted tackle and maybe an ineffective Nick Wilson or a redshirt freshman. Yikes!
No matter what there is not a lot of depth, and if we have injuries as we have had this year, we are looking at playing some true freshmen.
At Safety, Edwards and Simmons will be gone, leaving Buncom and Antoine, and a couple of redshirt freshmen who have seen no real action. I won't say anything about our current starting safeties, but will refer you to Phogge's ascerbic post about them https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=16561&pid=232011#pid232011
Likewise at inside linebacker, we are looking at a big hole as Okereke, Branch, and Perez all depart, leaving Barton and ? as an ILB for next year. Gotta hope the two guys redshirting can learn quickly.
Even at running back, we will have to plan for life post-Love, and while I suppose that with a better line Speights might be serviceable, see my biggest area of concern.
Finally, at QB, I assume Costello stays another year, even though he is draft eligible, and we are reasonably ok with Costello/Mills/West plus Richardson as a back-up. But Mills has yet to string together more than a couple months uninjured, and West is an unknown quality with mixed reviews (see slide's reply to Phogge's other ascerbic post: https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=16566)
Now to some extent we go through this every year. For years we fretted that our situation at defensive line was going to be critical, and somehow we managed to muddle through (the situation at DL isn't great this year either, but at least we have some depth with no one exhausting eligibility or likely to go pro early and some good young talent). We've had concerning holes on the OL before, and we had worries about QB's after Hogan graduated (which wound up well-founded). But it seems like given where we are now at some critical positions and the gaps lying behind, it will take some young, unproven players really stepping up, plus luck in the injury front, not to have critical weaknesses next year.
BC
The sky is falling said Chicken Little. We have a lot of things to fret about after the last two games, but replacing Fanaika who is only playing because 2 other guys got hurt, replacing Branch who doesn't play much, replacing Edwards and Simmons who haven't played much due to injury and worrying about guys who are not lighting the world afire around going pro early are not insurmountable obstables. Losing Love, Hall, Okereke, Holder and Burkett are major losses, but as you said, we go through that every year and then some. Our younger safeties are probably better than the guys we are losing. Dalman will have some experience replacing Burkett. We have some young talented corners who will play more next year. We have one of the most highly touted running backs that we have ever had coming in next year. The biggest loss will probably be early entry JJAW, but we have lots of young talent in the WR ranks. We will be okay albeit thin on the OL depth beyond the top 5-6 guys.
BobK also pointed out, I think last week, that we have as many as 6 OL recruits coming in next year. We have 4 OL commits already, and we are in a strong position for a couple more.
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - CTcard - 10-08-2018
(10-08-2018, 09:56 PM)donkey687 Wrote: The sky is falling said Chicken Little. We have a lot of things to fret about after the last two games, but replacing Fanaika who is only playing because 2 other guys got hurt, replacing Branch who doesn't play much, replacing Edwards and Simmons who haven't played much due to injury and worrying about guys who are not lighting the world afire around going pro early are not insurmountable obstables. Losing Love, Hall, Okereke, Holder and Burkett are major losses, but as you said, we go through that every year and then some. Our younger safeties are probably better than the guys we are losing. Dalman will have some experience replacing Burkett. We have some young talented corners who will play more next year. We have one of the most highly touted running backs that we have ever had coming in next year. The biggest loss will probably be early entry JJAW, but we have lots of young talent in the WR ranks. We will be okay albeit thin on the OL depth beyond the top 5-6 guys.
This seems like the much more reasonable take on things.
Things may indeed be terrible next year, but the turnover and lack of identifiable replacements doesn't look worse than to be expected for college football.
I guess there are two kinds of situations to look out for: departing solid guys with no clear heirs, and losing unique, game-changing talents.
Okereke falls into the first category. I haven't tracked snaps but think he doesn't come off the field much - and two of the three guys who play will be gone.
Holder similar but less dramatic on the replacement side.
Love is a unique talent. Still, the current troubles in the run game show that is usually more dependent on OL than RB.
Guessing who might go pro early is pretty much a fool's game, as it depends as much (or more) on and individual's approach towards school and life as pro prospects. But, on the relatively high trouble side is Smith, who would seem to have good pro prospects and while there is talent at the TE spot, so far no one has shown the range of abilities as Smith (even with some limitations blocking). JJAW also has unique skills, but the WR corps even without him still seems solid and far above the Stanford average.
Of course none of the personnel issues matter if we can't get back our strength and nastiness on the two lines. The DL coming back stronger is absolutely key. I don't see an OL of Little, Hamilton, Dalman, Herbig, Sarell as inherently incapable, though of course they have a ways to develop. [Yes, that's a guess that Herbig returns]
The good news is that it should get at least a little better much sooner than next year. I am counting on a week of healing, resting, and getting the team's collective head on straight doing wonders for performance.
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - PVTree - 10-09-2018
(10-08-2018, 07:55 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The last few games have shown that we have some very concerning holes at key positions. The concern is that a lot of these positions have gaping recruiting holes.
Going to refer to the handy-dandy personnel matrix:
https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=16215
For example, consider OL, the subject of much discussion:
Of our five starters, three (Burkett, Hall, and Fanaika) are on their fourth year of eligibility and won't be back next year. A fourth is still a junior, but he has the measurables to go pro after this year (though given the performance of the OL, I'm thinking he might want to be back). Now look at the holes behind them, especially at guard.
At C, Drew Dalman probably gets the start next year, since he started during Burkett's injury. There was a big-ish drop-off, but hopefully Dalman is on the steep part of the learning curve and the fact he'll have had at least some experience starting is a plus.
At tackle, we should be ok with Little and Sarrell, though the latter has been injured and the former has not played as well as he did as a true freshman. It gets scary if Little goes pro after his junior year.
At guard, if Herbig leaves, we have Hamilton, an injured converted tackle and maybe an ineffective Nick Wilson or a redshirt freshman. Yikes!
No matter what there is not a lot of depth, and if we have injuries as we have had this year, we are looking at playing some true freshmen.
At Safety, Edwards and Simmons will be gone, leaving Buncom and Antoine, and a couple of redshirt freshmen who have seen no real action. I won't say anything about our current starting safeties, but will refer you to Phogge's ascerbic post about them https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=16561&pid=232011#pid232011
Likewise at inside linebacker, we are looking at a big hole as Okereke, Branch, and Perez all depart, leaving Barton and ? as an ILB for next year. Gotta hope the two guys redshirting can learn quickly.
Even at running back, we will have to plan for life post-Love, and while I suppose that with a better line Speights might be serviceable, see my biggest area of concern.
Finally, at QB, I assume Costello stays another year, even though he is draft eligible, and we are reasonably ok with Costello/Mills/West plus Richardson as a back-up. But Mills has yet to string together more than a couple months uninjured, and West is an unknown quality with mixed reviews (see slide's reply to Phogge's other ascerbic post: https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=16566)
Now to some extent we go through this every year. For years we fretted that our situation at defensive line was going to be critical, and somehow we managed to muddle through (the situation at DL isn't great this year either, but at least we have some depth with no one exhausting eligibility or likely to go pro early and some good young talent). We've had concerning holes on the OL before, and we had worries about QB's after Hogan graduated (which wound up well-founded). But it seems like given where we are now at some critical positions and the gaps lying behind, it will take some young, unproven players really stepping up, plus luck in the injury front, not to have critical weaknesses next year.
BC
We also lose our punter who will be very hard to replace. He has been terrific at cornering opponents near their end zone and getting us out of our goaline countless times. His kickoffs are rarely returned also.
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - Stymie - 10-09-2018
I arrived from Stymie-Scotland to Stymie-Florida at midnight just in time to watch the Cards in the "highlights" of the 1st 1/2. Complete bummer.
Then onto the first time to see them live this year and in the 3rd 1/4 they looked possible to do another Oregon, but then they crumbled again. Utterly.
My take:
1. Costello is a good QB, but he is physically harmed and does not have a good enough throwing action or field sense to play on Sundays after he leaves the Farm, IMHO/Bon Voyage.
2. On the other hand, the receiving corps is potentially world class, but they are under served.
3. Without Love, the running game is kaput, but unless he recovers, Speights is the only answer. Scarlett is Remound Redux.
4. The OL and DL are OK, as are the LB's. Not great, but above average.
5. The DBs, as talented as they are, kept the middle of the field wide open and even I, at age 72, could complete passes all day given that "coverage."
6. Overall our team looked smaller and slower and less physical that the Utes. Where is Turley?
7. Losing severely at home against an average team is not what Stanford should be.
Stymie
PS--I'll be at the WSU game (50th reunion). Any place to meet and greet Cardboarders?
rfg
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - OutsiderFan - 10-09-2018
This is college football. There is always turnover. There are always positions where you don't see depth in a given year, and regardless, coaches are responsible for keeping their units performing. Top coaches who run top programs do this. David Shaw is in his 8th season, and demonstrated he can keep his teams competitive and effectively turn his roster over. All the best coaches do this.
My issue is not so much any certain position depth but the overall limited offers over the years. The good news is they have increased 2019 offers by 31% over 2018. Hopefully this trend continues.
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - winflop - 10-09-2018
There is always turnover, but after this season it appears to be above normal, especially if JJAW and Kaden both leave early.
I expect next year's team to be less talented than this year's team, but as we are seeing talent isn't all there is. The question is whether the other things you need will be better next year than they have been so far this year. No crystal ball there.
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - BostonCard - 10-09-2018
These holes were noted as early as 18 months ago, when we were recruiting this year's offensive linemen. If you look at the offensive line, there are two scholarship linemen listed as "first years" or redshirts, one guard and one center (we should normally have 5 - 7 per two-year cycle). After this year, when Hall graduates, you will have Little and Sarell, and if either of them gets injured (as Sarrell has been this year), you are looking at Hattis, a walk-on redshirt freshman, or a true freshman.
At the ILB position, there is one scholarship linebacker in our first and second year cohorts, and nobody has seen appreciable time. Usually, even when there is a well-established guy at a position (like Okereke at ILB), you would ideally like to hear about first and second year players getting some playing time, but none are. With the new redshirt rule, you might expect some of our redshirt players seeing at least some mop-up action in fewer than five games, if for no other reason than to decrease the risk of injury in the more senior guys in a game like Davis. That they have not even played suggests that they are nowhere near ready, so who comes in to take Okereke's spot when he graduates?
Yes, of course, we will somehow find a way to field an offensive line and we will have inside linebacker core. But we were not well-served by big gaps in the defensive line from 2015 - 2017, and we are still dealing with the after-effects of it. The margin for error going forward will be narrower at these positions especially (and a couple others, as I have highlighted), and if we have players get injured, or not pan out for whatever reason, then the drop-off in quality will be reflected by the on-field product.
BC
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - stupac2 - 10-09-2018
(10-09-2018, 10:37 AM)BostonCard Wrote: inside linebacker core
I'm shocked to see this from you!
I don't have a lot of input here, except that this is always the story with us. There are always going to be holes just based on how recruiting pans out. You'd obviously prefer for that to not be the case, but I don't think Shaw is sitting there in January saying "recruit some offensive linemen! I knew I was forgetting something!" Because we have meaningful standards and because we don't run off underperforming scholarship players, we're at a competitive disadvantage. I think, all things considered, that's a tradeoff we should be willing to make.
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - CTcard - 10-09-2018
(10-09-2018, 10:37 AM)BostonCard Wrote: That they have not even played suggests that they are nowhere near ready ...
Or suggests that the coaches are looking at the issue in a different manner than you are.
Quote:Yes, of course, we will somehow find a way to field an offensive line and we will have inside linebacker core. But we were not well-served by big gaps in the defensive line from 2015 - 2017, and we are still dealing with the after-effects of it. The margin for error going forward will be narrower at these positions especially (and a couple others, as I have highlighted), and if we have players get injured, or not pan out for whatever reason, then the drop-off in quality will be reflected by the on-field product.
All of this is true, but also pretty much the nature of college football, particularly of recruiting at Stanford.
As a coach, you have to do everything you can to have the player pipeline you need, but also the flexibility to handle thin patches as they arrive.
As a fan, my recommendation is to learn to understand its gonna happen from time to time and try not to let it drive you nuts. But it's only a recommendation - fans are free to go as nuts as they wish.
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - Spiny_Norman - 10-09-2018
I think the OL situation has been exacerbated by program losses.
Casey Tucker - grad transfer to ASU
Jack Dreyer - medical retirement
Austin Maihen - medical retirement
Clark Yarborough - medical retirement
Reilly Gibbons - signed but never enrolled; transferred to South Florida
But this is particularly telling:
In 2015, Stanford signed 4 O Linemen - Nick Wilson, Dreyer, Maihen and Brian Chaffin. I don't think any of them have started a game for Stanford (though Chaffin does play on short yardage situations).
In 2016, Stanford signed 5 O Linemen. Out of that group, we find one solid starter (Herbig) and a part-time player (Hamilton). No game contribution from Yarborough, Henry Hattis or Dylan Powell.
That's 9 players across two recruiting classes with one starter and one contributor. Leaves a big hole.
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - BostonCard - 10-09-2018
You misunderstand. I recognize that recruiting holes, especially at stanford, are goingto happen. For OL, especially, you might view the coaches as victims of their own success; if you were a promising tackle in the year immediately after Little and Sarrell signed, you might look at the depth chart and reasonably factir in anticipated playing time (a similar thing happened after we signed the 2012 class with Garnett, Murphy, and Peat; we had relatively sparse OL recruiting in 2013 and 2014). I think there are probably some things the coaches can do, in terms of taking a few more “plan B” players at poositions that are developing holes. But you are right, we are dealing with small numbers, and the difference between a well stocked position and one in trouble comes down to one or two players. Multiply that by 10 position groups, and the chances of having perfectly balanced classes across all position groups are negligeable.
The post was meant as an observation, not necessarily a complaint. Based on the holes inthe lineup, a position that was expected to be a strength but is a weakness now will likely not improve, and could well get worse in the next two years. Then take a position of relative strength on defense, and project forward, and its reasonable to expect a decline going forward.
BC
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - needle - 10-09-2018
Quote:That they have not even played suggests that they are nowhere near ready, so who comes in to take Okereke's spot when he graduates?
Wasn't everybody raving about Ricky Miezan in fall practice? He's listed as an inside backer.
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - BostonCard - 10-09-2018
(10-09-2018, 11:47 AM)needle Wrote:Quote:That they have not even played suggests that they are nowhere near ready, so who comes in to take Okereke's spot when he graduates?
Wasn't everybody raving about Ricky Miezan in fall practice? He's listed as an inside backer.
Is he injured? Otherwise, why not get him into <5 games so as to get him some game experience, see how he does in game situations, etc. I suppose it is possible that he is good enough that the coaches want to reserve him for the last five games of the year or something, but with the new redshirt rule, there is really no reason not to give freshmen some snaps in a real game situation, unless you are sure they are not ready (or they are injured).
BC
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - d4cohn - 10-09-2018
(10-09-2018, 11:40 AM)BostonCard Wrote: You misunderstand. I recognize that recruiting holes, especially at stanford, are goingto happen. For OL, especially, you might view the coaches as victims of their own success; if you were a promising tackle in the year immediately after Little and Sarrell signed, you might look at the depth chart and reasonably factir in anticipated playing time (a similar thing happened after we signed the 2012 class with Garnett, Murphy, and Peat; we had relatively sparse OL recruiting in 2013 and 2014). I think there are probably some things the coaches can do, in terms of taking a few more “plan B” players at poositions that are developing holes. But you are right, we are dealing with small numbers, and the difference between a well stocked position and one in trouble comes down to one or two players. Multiply that by 10 position groups, and the chances of having perfectly balanced classes across all position groups are negligeable.
The post was meant as an observation, not necessarily a complaint. Based on the holes inthe lineup, a position that was expected to be a strength but is a weakness now will likely not improve, and could well get worse in the next two years. Then take a position of relative strength on defense, and project forward, and its reasonable to expect a decline going forward.
BC
Or it is possible, with 4-6 new OL recruits coming in next year, included some highly touted prospects, that the OL could be young and promising, with guys who wouldn't otherwise play (and redshirt) playing out of necessity.
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - Beeg_Dawg - 10-09-2018
(10-09-2018, 12:05 PM)d4cohn Wrote:(10-09-2018, 11:40 AM)BostonCard Wrote: You misunderstand. I recognize that recruiting holes, especially at stanford, are goingto happen. For OL, especially, you might view the coaches as victims of their own success; if you were a promising tackle in the year immediately after Little and Sarrell signed, you might look at the depth chart and reasonably factir in anticipated playing time (a similar thing happened after we signed the 2012 class with Garnett, Murphy, and Peat; we had relatively sparse OL recruiting in 2013 and 2014). I think there are probably some things the coaches can do, in terms of taking a few more “plan B” players at poositions that are developing holes. But you are right, we are dealing with small numbers, and the difference between a well stocked position and one in trouble comes down to one or two players. Multiply that by 10 position groups, and the chances of having perfectly balanced classes across all position groups are negligeable.
The post was meant as an observation, not necessarily a complaint. Based on the holes inthe lineup, a position that was expected to be a strength but is a weakness now will likely not improve, and could well get worse in the next two years. Then take a position of relative strength on defense, and project forward, and its reasonable to expect a decline going forward.
BC
Or it is possible, with 4-6 new OL recruits coming in next year, included some highly touted prospects, that the OL could be young and promising, with guys who wouldn't otherwise play (and redshirt) playing out of necessity.
Playing out of necessity. Isn't that code for "Mediocre season?" or "Welcome to the Foster Farms Bowl?"
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - CTcard - 10-09-2018
(10-09-2018, 11:55 AM)BostonCard Wrote:(10-09-2018, 11:47 AM)needle Wrote:Quote:That they have not even played suggests that they are nowhere near ready, so who comes in to take Okereke's spot when he graduates?
Wasn't everybody raving about Ricky Miezan in fall practice? He's listed as an inside backer.
Is he injured? Otherwise, why not get him into <5 games so as to get him some game experience, see how he does in game situations, etc.
This might be one of those cases where the coaches view the situation differently than the standard fan-take.
Depending upon just what stage of development a player is in, and what they are working on, actual game time may or may not be the most important thing to spur development. I could at least imagine that Miezan needs to work on some fundamental issues and the coaches fear that the pressure of playing in games will cause him to revert to instincts, old habits, etc.
Or simply that the coaches feel the four games are better spent when he is a few steps further down the development curve.
I don't know, but it isn't so simple as he should be playing if not injured.
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - Austroturf - 10-09-2018
(10-09-2018, 11:33 AM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: I think the OL situation has been exacerbated by program losses.Excellent analysis. That really does explain a great deal of our challenges on the O-line. If you recruit 9 O-linemen and only one becomes a starter and another is active in a back-up role, your depth is bound to be hurting. I wonder if there are similar analyses for other positions (and other teams). Is this par for the course? Seems to be a low return on "scholarship investment".
Casey Tucker - grad transfer to ASU
Jack Dreyer - medical retirement
Austin Maihen - medical retirement
Clark Yarborough - medical retirement
Reilly Gibbons - signed but never enrolled; transferred to South Florida
But this is particularly telling:
In 2015, Stanford signed 4 O Linemen - Nick Wilson, Dreyer, Maihen and Brian Chaffin. I don't think any of them have started a game for Stanford (though Chaffin does play on short yardage situations).
In 2016, Stanford signed 5 O Linemen. Out of that group, we find one solid starter (Herbig) and a part-time player (Hamilton). No game contribution from Yarborough, Henry Hattis or Dylan Powell.
That's 9 players across two recruiting classes with one starter and one contributor. Leaves a big hole.
RE: It's going to get worse before it gets better - BostonCard - 10-09-2018
(10-09-2018, 11:33 AM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: I think the OL situation has been exacerbated by program losses.
Casey Tucker - grad transfer to ASU
Jack Dreyer - medical retirement
Austin Maihen - medical retirement
Clark Yarborough - medical retirement
Reilly Gibbons - signed but never enrolled; transferred to South Florida
But this is particularly telling:
In 2015, Stanford signed 4 O Linemen - Nick Wilson, Dreyer, Maihen and Brian Chaffin. I don't think any of them have started a game for Stanford (though Chaffin does play on short yardage situations).
In 2016, Stanford signed 5 O Linemen. Out of that group, we find one solid starter (Herbig) and a part-time player (Hamilton). No game contribution from Yarborough, Henry Hattis or Dylan Powell.
That's 9 players across two recruiting classes with one starter and one contributor. Leaves a big hole.
The whifs in the classes of 2015/2016 are significant, but largely not relevant in two years. For guards, the problem is getting one scholarship guard between 2017 and 2018, after the whifs in 2016.
At tackle it is a bit more complicated; to an extent we are victims of the success of the 2017. First, because Sarrell and Little were good enough to play as true freshmen, and are good enough to scare away 2018 recruits, it left us functionally with a two-class hole. Things will look not as bad if a 2019 freshman is good enough to play (for example in the jumbo package), as it would leave only a one-year gap.
BC