Best hopes for this season - Printable Version

Best hopes for this season - Printable Version

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Best hopes for this season - CardinalSagehen - 10-28-2018

We are 5-3 with two tough games and two relatively easier games remaining.

Our three losses have come against well-ranked teams. We do not have a win over any team that is still ranked. Recent losses by Oregon, USC and SDSU have hurt us in that respect.

None of our remaining games are against ranked teams. UW is #26 is the new AP Poll - it's possible that the CFP committee could rank them based on their win against Utah. In a best-case scenario, by beating Washington and Cal, we would probably ensure that they remain unranked, unless Washington ends up 8-4 with a season-ending win over Wazzu.

If you're a super optimist, you are imagining two losses by Wazzu (with 3 of 4 games at home, and the only road game @ COLO) and our running the table, which would put us at 9-3 in the CCG and presumably give us another crack at a ranked team. With the way that Arizona and Cal played last night, anything's possible.

I looked at the multi-way tie scenarios and they basically all require Wazzu to lose two more games anyway. The best thing that could happen to put us right back into the mix would be a Cal win @ Wazzu next week, which would be even more surprising than their win vs. UW.

Meanwhile, with our remaining schedule, reasonable odds are that we end up 2-2 or 3-1 over the last 4 games. This would put us at 7-5 or 8-4 with no wins against ranked teams. At 8-4, we might actually come in 3rd in the Pac 12 and receive a matchup with a ranked bowl opponent, at least.

So, all in all, the season's outlook appears pretty grim compared to most of our hopes. It's looking a lot like 2014, except the upside looking ahead to next season isn't quite as visible, at least not yet. Despite it all, I'll be glued to the screen next Saturday at 6PM and probably watching the Cal/Wazzu game, too!

Any other perspectives on how our season is projecting? Or qualitative things that you'd like to see between now and the bowl game?

RE: Best hopes for this season - stupac2 - 10-28-2018

At this point in 2014 I don't think there was all that much obvious upside. The offense didn't really get going for another game or two, and we knew we were losing a lot of defensive pieces. Meanwhile this year the offense clearly has the pieces to be great, and while losing guys like Love and JJ and Irwin will hurt, there are potential replacements waiting. If the OL next year can stay healthy, and the young defensive players improve some, I think we could be a fantastic team.

RE: Best hopes for this season - 81alum - 10-28-2018

Let's say for the sake of argument that both we and WSU win out. Isn't there a chance that WSU--a 1 loss conference chamption--gets invited to the BCS, thus forgoing the Rose Bowl? Then who goes to the Rose Bowl?

RE: Best hopes for this season - Spiny_Norman - 10-28-2018

(10-28-2018, 02:41 PM)81alum Wrote: Let's say for the sake of argument that both we and WSU win out. Isn't there a chance that WSU--a 1 loss conference chamption--gets invited to the BCS, thus forgoing the Rose Bowl? Then who goes to the Rose Bowl?

The highest rated P12 team in the BCS standings after conference championship games have been played

RE: Best hopes for this season - qwerty49 - 10-28-2018

Just my guess but I suspect the endgame plays out like this:

4-0 Sun
3-1 Holiday
2-2 Chicken
1-3 Vegas

Rose and Alamo, barring 2 Wazzu losses, are out of reach.

Amazing how this one game made the difference between Rose Bowl contender and meh.

RE: Best hopes for this season - winflop - 10-28-2018

(10-28-2018, 04:10 PM)qwerty49 Wrote: Just my guess but I suspect the endgame plays out like this:

4-0 Sun
3-1 Holiday
2-2 Chicken
1-3 Vegas

Sun Bowl is ranked below Holiday & Chicken so you may have those mixed up.

(10-28-2018, 04:10 PM)qwerty49 Wrote: Amazing how this one game made the difference between Rose Bowl contender and meh.

That's the Pac-12's fault for having a crappy slate of bowl games. Specifically, Larry Scott's fault.

RE: Best hopes for this season - qwerty49 - 10-28-2018

You’re right, my bad. I guess they changed it because I thought for sure Sun was #3 as recently as 3-4 years ago.

So

4-0 Holiday
3-1 Chicken
2-2 Sun
1-3 Vegas

(10-28-2018, 06:00 PM)winflop Wrote:
(10-28-2018, 04:10 PM)qwerty49 Wrote: Just my guess but I suspect the endgame plays out like this:

4-0 Sun
3-1 Holiday
2-2 Chicken
1-3 Vegas

Sun Bowl is ranked below Holiday & Chicken so you may have those mixed up.

(10-28-2018, 04:10 PM)qwerty49 Wrote: Amazing how this one game made the difference between Rose Bowl contender and meh.

That's the Pac-12's fault for having a crappy slate of bowl games. Specifically, Larry Scott's fault.

RE: Best hopes for this season - CardinalSagehen - 10-28-2018

(10-28-2018, 02:03 PM)stupac2 Wrote: At this point in 2014 I don't think there was all that much obvious upside. The offense didn't really get going for another game or two, and we knew we were losing a lot of defensive pieces. Meanwhile this year the offense clearly has the pieces to be great, and while losing guys like Love and JJ and Irwin will hurt, there are potential replacements waiting. If the OL next year can stay healthy, and the young defensive players improve some, I think we could be a fantastic team.

I agree. In the middle of the season, there was little reason for hope. But by the end, we were seeing more glimpses of McCaffrey and starting to notice the OL gelling.

So much of our offense this year has been centered around JJAW, Trent and Kaden. I know that St. Brown and Wilson are talented, Colby will still be around, and Wedington will be back. But the passing game will definitely have to adapt to different kinds of receiving talent next year. Maybe we'll see a bit more of the up-and-comers in the remaining games.

RE: Best hopes for this season - BostonCard - 10-28-2018

Also the chicken bowl is no longer the chicken bowl. The game to be played at Levi’s stadium is now the redbox bowl:

http://www.levisstadium.com/2018/09/bay-areas-annual-bowl-game-at-levis-stadium-is-now-the-redbox-bowl/

So do we call it the DVD bowl?

BC

RE: Best hopes for this season - CardinalSagehen - 10-28-2018

(10-28-2018, 09:57 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Also the chicken bowl is no longer the chicken bowl. The game to be played at Levi’s stadium is now the redbox bowl:

http://www.levisstadium.com/2018/09/bay-areas-annual-bowl-game-at-levis-stadium-is-now-the-redbox-bowl/

So do we call it the DVD bowl?

BC

Wow. At least chicken was never going out of style. More people will probably “Redbox and chill” that evening than watch the game.

But I’d watch anyway, or attend, if it isn’t freezing and raining.

Still hoping for something better...

RE: Best hopes for this season - Spiny_Norman - 10-28-2018

(10-28-2018, 10:31 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote: But I’d watch anyway, or attend, if it isn’t freezing and raining.

That's also called Redbox and Chill.

RE: Best hopes for this season - winflop - 10-29-2018

(10-28-2018, 09:57 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Also the chicken bowl is no longer the chicken bowl. The game to be played at Levi’s stadium is now the redbox bowl:

http://www.levisstadium.com/2018/09/bay-areas-annual-bowl-game-at-levis-stadium-is-now-the-redbox-bowl/

So do we call it the DVD bowl?

BC

It will always and forever be the Amazing Chicken Bowl

RE: Best hopes for this season - CardinalSagehen - 10-29-2018

Well, 25 years ago we made a good showing in the VHS Bowl. We could check off the Supermarket DVD Bowl and possibly move on to the Streaming Bowl in another 25 years. But by then, virtual reality will have replaced movies anyway.

Alternatively, we could finish 3rd in the Pac 12 this year and even get bumped-up a slot when the committee takes pity and puts both CCG participants in NY6 bowls.

Or Cal and UW could do us a solid by beating Wazzu.

RE: Best hopes for this season - Phogge - 10-29-2018

The chief benefit of a bowl game is getting guys like Williamson, A. Fox, West and Woods more reps.

I'm saying a novena that Edwards returns and that some graduate transfer safety who can play finds that only Stanford offers a masters program that he likes.

RE: Best hopes for this season - qwerty49 - 10-29-2018

(10-29-2018, 06:40 AM)winflop Wrote:
(10-28-2018, 09:57 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Also the chicken bowl is no longer the chicken bowl. The game to be played at Levi’s stadium is now the redbox bowl:

http://www.levisstadium.com/2018/09/bay-areas-annual-bowl-game-at-levis-stadium-is-now-the-redbox-bowl/

So do we call it the DVD bowl?

BC

It will always and forever be the Amazing Chicken Bowl

The Chicken Bowl and the Sears Cup are keepers IMHO.

RE: Best hopes for this season - BostonCard - 10-29-2018

Shouldn't it always be known as the mac'n'cheese bowl?

BC

RE: Best hopes for this season - JPR36 - 10-29-2018

(10-28-2018, 08:30 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote:
(10-28-2018, 02:03 PM)stupac2 Wrote: At this point in 2014 I don't think there was all that much obvious upside. The offense didn't really get going for another game or two, and we knew we were losing a lot of defensive pieces. Meanwhile this year the offense clearly has the pieces to be great, and while losing guys like Love and JJ and Irwin will hurt, there are potential replacements waiting. If the OL next year can stay healthy, and the young defensive players improve some, I think we could be a fantastic team.

I agree. In the middle of the season, there was little reason for hope. But by the end, we were seeing more glimpses of McCaffrey and starting to notice the OL gelling.

So much of our offense this year has been centered around JJAW, Trent and Kaden. I know that St. Brown and Wilson are talented, Colby will still be around, and Wedington will be back. But the passing game will definitely have to adapt to different kinds of receiving talent next year. Maybe we'll see a bit more of the up-and-comers in the remaining games.

I'd like to see Simi Fehoko get some reps. I think he's potentially another JJAW.

RE: Best hopes for this season - Papa John - 10-29-2018

I think that WSU will lose twice more, and Stanford has the talent to win out. I just worry about our lack of depth at some positions. The Holiday Bowl would not be a bad consolation prize, however.

RE: Best hopes for this season - JPR36 - 10-29-2018

(10-29-2018, 01:49 PM)Papa John Wrote: I think that WSU will lose twice more, and Stanford has the talent to win out. I just worry about our lack of depth at some positions. The Holiday Bowl would not be a bad consolation prize, however.

I wouldn't complain if they did, but the Cougs aren't going to lose twice more. You can take that to the bank.

RE: Best hopes for this season - CardinalSagehen - 10-29-2018

(10-29-2018, 12:52 PM)JPR36 Wrote:
(10-28-2018, 08:30 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote:
(10-28-2018, 02:03 PM)stupac2 Wrote: At this point in 2014 I don't think there was all that much obvious upside. The offense didn't really get going for another game or two, and we knew we were losing a lot of defensive pieces. Meanwhile this year the offense clearly has the pieces to be great, and while losing guys like Love and JJ and Irwin will hurt, there are potential replacements waiting. If the OL next year can stay healthy, and the young defensive players improve some, I think we could be a fantastic team.

I agree. In the middle of the season, there was little reason for hope. But by the end, we were seeing more glimpses of McCaffrey and starting to notice the OL gelling.

So much of our offense this year has been centered around JJAW, Trent and Kaden. I know that St. Brown and Wilson are talented, Colby will still be around, and Wedington will be back. But the passing game will definitely have to adapt to different kinds of receiving talent next year. Maybe we'll see a bit more of the up-and-comers in the remaining games.

I'd like to see Simi Fehoko gets some reps. I think he's potentially another JJAW.

Speaking of 6’4’’ receivers, what has happened to Donald Stewart this year? I vaguely remember that he was dinged up in the summer but lost the thread after that. Is he injured now, or just buried on the depth chart?

I agree, Fehoko did look good in the summer scrimmages and was getting some reps with the 1s.