Bowl Projections - Printable Version

Bowl Projections - Printable Version

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Bowl Projection - OutsiderFan - 11-25-2018

If WSU gets picked for a NY6 Bowl, everyone in the conference moves up a slot, and because there are only 7 bowl-eligible Pac-12 teams, no Pac-12 will be in the Cheez it.

1. Rose
2. Alamo
3. Holiday
4. Red Box
5. Sun
6. Vegas
7. Cheez it

I'm going to assume UW beats Utah and Stanford beats Cal. This would give the following order:

1. UW
2. WSU
3. Utah
4. Stanford
5. Oregon
6. ASU
7. Cal

So Pac-12 Bowls would be:

Rose: UW vs. Michigan
NY6: WSU vs. LSU or Florida
Alamo: Utah vs. WVU
Holiday: Stanford vs. Northwestern
Red Box: Oregon vs. Iowa
Sun: ASU vs. Syracuse
Vegas: Cal vs. Boise State

RE: Bowl Projection - winflop - 11-25-2018

I'd love to see us in the Holiday Bowl, but important to remember that thanks to Larry Scott, bowls can pick a team with the same record or one more conference loss than the "best team available."

UW 7-2
WSU 7-2
Utah 6-3
Stanford 6-3
Oregon 5-4
ASU 5-4
Cal 4-5

Alamo could pick Utah, Stanford, Oregon, or ASU. Same story for Holiday and Red Box.

Bowls are first and foremost about money, which means that Stanford could slip all the way to the Sun Bowl.

RE: Bowl Projection - OutsiderFan - 11-25-2018

(11-25-2018, 09:05 AM)winflop Wrote: I'd love to see us in the Holiday Bowl, but important to remember that thanks to Larry Scott, bowls can pick a team with the same record or one more conference loss than the "best team available."

UW 7-2
WSU 7-2
Utah 6-3
Stanford 6-3
Oregon 5-4
ASU 5-4
Cal 4-5

Alamo could pick Utah, Stanford, Oregon, or ASU. Same story for Holiday and Red Box.

Bowls are first and foremost about money, which means that Stanford could slip all the way to the Sun Bowl.

What Bowl Committee wouldn't want the "high flying" Stanford offense in their game? I don't know if y'all realize it, but KJ Costello is one of the top QBs in the country, and Stanford is averaging more points (40) than Oregon (37), leading the Pac-12 in scoring over its last three games.

RE: Bowl Projection - JPR36 - 11-25-2018

(11-25-2018, 09:14 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:
(11-25-2018, 09:05 AM)winflop Wrote: I'd love to see us in the Holiday Bowl, but important to remember that thanks to Larry Scott, bowls can pick a team with the same record or one more conference loss than the "best team available."

UW 7-2
WSU 7-2
Utah 6-3
Stanford 6-3
Oregon 5-4
ASU 5-4
Cal 4-5

Alamo could pick Utah, Stanford, Oregon, or ASU. Same story for Holiday and Red Box.

Bowls are first and foremost about money, which means that Stanford could slip all the way to the Sun Bowl.

What Bowl Committee wouldn't want the "high flying" Stanford offense in their game? I don't know if y'all realize it, but KJ Costello is one of the top QBs in the country, and Stanford is averaging more points (40) than Oregon (37), leading the Pac-12 in scoring over its last three games.

Yep, and in addition to KJ, we'll have two possible first round NFL draft choices in our starting offense (assuming they are both healthy and decide to play). I would think that would make us very attractive. Of course, we won't be bringing legions of fans and I assume that will be a factor also. Then again, would any team be bringing legions of fans to, say, El Paso?

RE: Bowl Projection - OutsiderFan - 11-25-2018

Stanford has never played in the Holiday Bowl, so I'm guessing Stanford fans would show up there. Oregon has played in the Holiday Bowl 3 times.

If Northwestern and Stanford play, they will play each other two games in a row, as Stanford opens at home with Northwestern in 2019.

RE: Bowl Projection - winflop - 11-25-2018

All great points, but bowls care about making money and not much else. People ask why there are so many "garbage" bowl games now? The answer is because they make money.

I'd love to see Stanford vs. Northwestern in the Holiday Bowl - I might even go and make a mini-vacation out of it. But I'm still hoping that NU is in the Rose Bowl, and I'm not counting on the Holiday Bowl to take us.

RE: Bowl Projection - martyup - 11-25-2018

vs NW = Nerd bowl . . . And revenge!

RE: Bowl Projection - Phogge - 11-25-2018

Assuming Oklahoma beats Texas I don’t think Ohio jumps them. Comes down to Ohio and Georgia if the Bulldogs make it close against Bama. We all know that the Committee believes that the SEC is all powerful and the other conferences are adopted waifs of that Goliath. So I look for the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.

RE: Bowl Projection - Spiny_Norman - 11-25-2018

Jerry Palm at CBS Sports projects Stanford to the Redbox and Chill Bowl and a re-match vs. Iowa. Remember that the P12 conference decides who goes to what bowl. They must select in order of overall P12 record, but have the ability to choose between tied teams or pick a team with one fewer win if they prefer. So they could jump ASU or Oregon at 5-4 over Stanford at 6-3 for example.

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

And Phogge, Palm projects Ohio State over Oklahoma if both win because of the quality of their win over Michigan.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-bowl-projections-ohio-state-oklahoma-debate-begins-for-the-college-football-playoff/

RE: Bowl Projection - BostonCard - 11-25-2018

We have to beat Cal first!

BC

RE: Bowl Projection - Snorlax94 - 11-25-2018

(11-25-2018, 10:01 AM)martyup Wrote: vs NW = Nerd bowl . . . And revenge!

Normally a Nerd Bowl might be compelling, but remember our first game next Fall is against NW at home, which kind of ruins the drama of that matchup.

Does anyone know — I know Bowl Games care a lot about ticket $$$ and fan bases that travel, but how much do ratings $$ matter to them? Stanford could be a particularly exciting team to watch on TV this year.

RE: Bowl Projection - yvonne - 11-25-2018

(11-25-2018, 11:27 AM)BostonCard Wrote: We have to beat Cal first!

BC

Exactly. That's far from a given this year.

RE: Bowl Projection - OutsiderFan - 11-25-2018

(11-25-2018, 12:53 PM)yvonne Wrote:
(11-25-2018, 11:27 AM)BostonCard Wrote: We have to beat Cal first!

BC

Exactly. That's far from a given this year.

I posted here earlier in the year that if Stanford didn't change its offensive approach, to leaning on passing, they would lose to Cal this year. Well, since then Stanford has changed to lean on Costello and the talented receiving corps, to change this game's outlook quite a bit.

It's one thing to say "it's possible Cal could win" in the "on any given day sense." But this game is about as much of a given for Stanford as you can get. Cal simply can't do anything on offense. Stanford is now the most prolific offense in the Pac-12 over the last three weeks, good for #5 in FBS in Yards Per Play over that span. Cal is good on defense, but football is an offensive game now, and they are #128 in FBS over the last three weeks. Even Cal fans recognize Stanford's defense will be much better against Cal than its season averages, because Cal lacks play making athletes on offense.

A Stanford team with a big play passing offense is a horrible match-up for Cal. It might be their worst match-up since Oregon, a game they lost 42-24.

RE: Bowl Projection - Spiny_Norman - 11-25-2018

(11-25-2018, 12:53 PM)yvonne Wrote:
(11-25-2018, 11:27 AM)BostonCard Wrote: We have to beat Cal first!

BC

Exactly. That's far from a given this year.

If WSU finishes in the top 12 and makes a New Years 6 bowl game, the P12 will have only 5 teams (Utah or UW, Oregon, Stanford, ASU, Cal) to fill out the remaining 6 slots:
2. Alamo Bowl vs. Big 12
3. Holiday Bowl vs. Big Ten
4. Redbox Bowl vs. Big Ten
5. Sun Bowl vs. ACC
6. Las Vegas Bowl vs. Mountain West
7. Cheez-It Bowl vs. Big 12

I assume that the conference championship game loser will play in the Alamo Bowl.

Strictly following the P12 bowl selection guidelines, Stanford will be competition with Oregon (5-4) and Arizona State (5-4) for the remaining bowl slots whether the Cardinal win and finish 6-3 or lose and finish 5-4. If Stanford loses, then Cal enters the picture at 5-4 as well.

RE: Bowl Projection - ADPinWDC - 11-25-2018

(11-25-2018, 09:14 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:
(11-25-2018, 09:05 AM)winflop Wrote: I'd love to see us in the Holiday Bowl, but important to remember that thanks to Larry Scott, bowls can pick a team with the same record or one more conference loss than the "best team available."

UW 7-2
WSU 7-2
Utah 6-3
Stanford 6-3
Oregon 5-4
ASU 5-4
Cal 4-5

Alamo could pick Utah, Stanford, Oregon, or ASU. Same story for Holiday and Red Box.

Bowls are first and foremost about money, which means that Stanford could slip all the way to the Sun Bowl.

What Bowl Committee wouldn't want the "high flying" Stanford offense in their game? I don't know if y'all realize it, but KJ Costello is one of the top QBs in the country, and Stanford is averaging more points (40) than Oregon (37), leading the Pac-12 in scoring over its last three games.

Roger that on KJ Big TIme: With one game to go, KJ Costello wields the best PASSER rating in the Pac12 (159.1), on 367 attempts. Minshew (a 148 rating) throws for more yards per game and has 36 passing TDs (613 attempts), but Costello books more yards PER ATTEMPT (8.7yds > 7.3 for Minshew), with 28 TDs after tossing FIVE six-pointers vs UCLA.

https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/46486219_10156947204757509_2612917575851442176_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=8cea0397790adee90e239fd7736b8d6a&oe=5C77F031

BOYCOTT the SF RedBox (Dec. 31) -- we hate it. The Dorms are closed (LOCKED !); the students are GONE !
Tell SI / ESPN / CBS that Stanford is NOT a commuter school. PUH-LEASE.
Alumni are all over the country, lots in SoCal, not just NorCal. The players are from all over USA.
Levi is NOT a home game for Stanford. It might as well be the West Coast Pinstripe Bowl.
Give it to a couple of PARKA Schools -- Oregon vs Iowa sounds nice. Take your ice-scraper to the tail-gater.

Yes, yes -- Beat the Bears soundly first. Got it. But, we are sketching here the PURGATORY that awaits us IF WE LOSE TO KAL.
Win and get the Holiday (Dec. 31 at 4pm PT)... perhaps. Lose and fall to Redbox or even the Count-yer-chips Vegas Bowl.
If Fresno State snags the Vegas Bowl, Jeff Tedford (Kal 2002-2012) would LOVE a vengeful shot at a mopey Cardinal.

RE: Bowl Projection - Austroturf - 11-25-2018

(11-25-2018, 01:39 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:
(11-25-2018, 12:53 PM)yvonne Wrote:
(11-25-2018, 11:27 AM)BostonCard Wrote: We have to beat Cal first!

BC

Exactly. That's far from a given this year.

If WSU finishes in the top 12 and makes a New Years 6 bowl game, the P12 will have only 5 teams (Utah or UW, Oregon, Stanford, ASU, Cal) to fill out the remaining 6 slots:
2. Alamo Bowl vs. Big 12
3. Holiday Bowl vs. Big Ten
4. Redbox Bowl vs. Big Ten
5. Sun Bowl vs. ACC
6. Las Vegas Bowl vs. Mountain West
7. Cheez-It Bowl vs. Big 12

I assume that the conference championship game loser will play in the Alamo Bowl.

Strictly following the P12 bowl selection guidelines, Stanford will be competition with Oregon (5-4) and Arizona State (5-4) for the remaining bowl slots whether the Cardinal win and finish 6-3 or lose and finish 5-4. If Stanford loses, then Cal enters the picture at 5-4 as well.

I have a more pessimistic take on all of this, as we have been there before (2016). The "within one game" guideline essentially means that the Alamo through the Sun get to pick freely between Utah, Stanford, Oregon and ASU (assuming UW prevails in the CCG and we knock off the Bears). As south division champ, Utah will get the Alamo (same fate we had last year as north division champ and loser in the CCG). That leaves the Holiday, Redbox and Sun for the remaining three. We cannot drop any further than the Sun Bowl, but the Holiday is no guarantee. So where do we end up?

The bowls clearly give preference to universities that have large fan bases that travel well. Stanford is not known for traveling well, especially to minor bowls. The Cardinal faithful will show up in numbers for something like a Rose Bowl, but otherwise the size of the fan-base and the dispersed nature of Stanford's alumni does not guarantee that lots of tickets will be sold. Even though we plastered the Hawkeyes in the last Rose Bowl, there was definitely more black and gold in the stands. So we shouldn't be surprised if the Holiday Bowl ignores our (hopefully) 6-3 record and takes the Ducks, who we defeated. And I wouldn't put it past the Redbox Bowl to select ASU for the very same reason, especially since our outing there against Maryland in 2014 did not produce a strong showing by the Cardinal faithful. (But, frankly, who wants the Redbox Bowl????).

So my expectation is Sun Bowl if we beat Cal and Las Vegas Bowl if we lose to Cal. As simple as that. The only way we get the Holiday Bowl is if the Pac-12 intervenes and decides we should be there because it would be a first, while Oregon has been there several times.

In 2016, a minor variation of this occurred. Stanford had the 5th best record in the conference behind UW, Colorado, USC and Washington State. UW went to the CFP, USC got the Rose Bowl, Colorado went to the Alamo Bowl and Wazzu got the Holiday Bowl. The Sun Bowl was our floor and the Foster Farms was our ceiling that year. The Foster Farms selection committee opted for the Utes, who were one game back. This was also due to our poor showing in 2014. And the Sun Bowl had to take us, because there is some clause stipulating that they have to select in order of Pac-12 ranking (as do the Las Vegas Bowl and the Cactus Bowl). There were no other bowl eligible teams in the Pac-12 that year, so we were the bottom of the pack with our 9-3 overall record (6-3 conference). Some teams even get New Year's Six bowl games with three losses; we got the Sun Bowl and UNC.

In the end, Stanford is not a great draw for a bowl; and we only tend to get the really good bowl bids if we simply earn it outright (like winning the Pac-12 championship, a division title, or ending up in the top ten rankings like we did in 2010 and 2011). This is the perfect year for us to get the lowest possible bowl bid in the pecking order. Sun Bowl if we beat Cal, Vegas bowl if we lose. Book it.

RE: Bowl Projection - Spiny_Norman - 11-25-2018

Astroturf - just one amendment to your assessment - bowls do not pick. P12 office makes the assignments. Bowls can express preferences for the match up, but P12 has the final say.

RE: Bowl Projection - Austroturf - 11-25-2018

(11-25-2018, 03:02 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: Astroturf - just one amendment to your assessment - bowls do not pick. P12 office makes the assignments. Bowls can express preferences for the match up, but P12 has the final say.

Thanks for the clarification. I guess the question is how closely does the conference adhere to these preferences, which might mean that the bowls do get a big say in the selection.

RE: Bowl Projection - Hank 91 - 11-25-2018

I'll be rooting hard for the Holiday Bowl for selfish reasons -- it's within driving distance. That would be a nice end to what's been kind of a disappointing season.

RE: Bowl Projection - Phogge - 11-25-2018

Spiny... AP:

4 Georgia
5 Oklahoma
6 OSU