One fan's take on Football - Printable Version
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One fan's take on Football - OutsiderFan - 08-15-2019
After synthesizing what I have gathered about the football team, here is my take for the rest of y'all to chew on, agree on or tear apart as the case may be...
First of all, my overwhelming sense is this team is going to be better than most people have assumed. I see Stanford being improved at every position in 2019 over 2018 except TE. But even TE has an All-American level talent. Now some may scoff at the notion Stanford could be better without Love, JJAW, K. Smith, and Bobby Okereke, but as I always say, all teams change from year-to-year. Everybody loses players and must replace them. Some return more than others, but we also tend to lose sight of the fact new starters can actually lead to better teams than previous ostensibly superior starters had. Just two examples are Tee Martin leading Tennessee to National Title the year AFTER Peyton Manning left, and Kevin Hogan leading Stanford to Rose Bowl the year AFTER Andrew Luck left.
I'm not going to put down the contributions of JJAW and Trent Irwin, but I see the current WR group as deeper, with more better athletes than last year. The starting OL will be better if the projected starters stay intact. This will give a now veteran QB the opportunity to continue being a stalwart in the passing game. Love wasn't healthy or running behind a sound OL in 2018. Scarlett has been improving every year, and the True Frosh are great athletes. Most important, the playbook is being simplified to allow the best talents on the field faster.
The Defense is where I see the biggest strides will be made. It seems to me Stanford has the most Front Seven depth it has had since the Gardner/Mauro/Murphy years. Swann, Williams, and Booker are backed by guys who have played and been in the program for a few years. To my surprise, Stanford was actually middle of the Pac in run D in 2018, and was just a tad under 4 YPC. I see them improving on this mark, not only because the DL is better and more experienced, but also because contrary to what was assumed, the ILBs might not actually be the weakness people have been fearing, and the pass rush looks to be improved as well, with so much depth at OLB.
Everyone knows about Paulson Adebo, but Obi Eboh has been receiving a lot of acclaim, not just in these August practices. I saw an interview with JJAW in April in which he said Eboh was the guy to watch for in the secondary. I will admit the Safety position seems to be the weak link, but with two very good CBs and what looks like a strong front seven that will get pressure on opposing QBs, that weakness is mitigated a bit. That said, I really liked what I saw from Kendall Williamson as a Frosh, and he looks to be having a much expanded role this season.
The other reason to believe this team will be better than people are assuming is the high end talent on the roster. Stanford has three players on pre-season All-America lists in Little, Adebo, and Parkinson. Costello is projected as the #4 ranked NFL Draft QB. Yes, the schedule is brutal, almost unfair to the players, but that also means Stanford will likely play its first four games on national TV, which could inspire the team. I don't think it likely they can win 9+ games because the schedule is so tough, but I do think 8-4 against this schedule will prove the 2019 team was better than the 2018 versions, and all things considered, such a record will constitute a successful season.
The biggest concern is the fact the 2nd team OL is 4/5 True Frosh. How the hell was THAT allowed to happen?
RE: One fan's take on Football - BobK - 08-15-2019
Nice. I do think Hattis and Pease will play before the 2nd freshman on the OL. But I hear your concern after last season
RE: One fan's take on Football - slide - 08-15-2019
(08-15-2019, 06:54 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The biggest concern is the fact the 2nd team OL is 4/5 True Frosh. How the hell was THAT allowed to happen?
the beauty of Shaw-gren?
RE: One fan's take on Football - SamuelMcF - 08-15-2019
Thanks a lot for this, OF. Want to "chew on" some of your points!
(08-15-2019, 06:54 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: First of all, my overwhelming sense is this team is going to be better than most people have assumed. I see Stanford being improved at every position in 2019 over 2018 except TE. But even TE has an All-American level talent. Now some may scoff at the notion Stanford could be better without Love, JJAW, K. Smith, and Bobby Okereke, but as I always say, all teams change from year-to-year. Everybody loses players and must replace them. Some return more than others, but we also tend to lose sight of the fact new starters can actually lead to better teams than previous ostensibly superior starters had. Just two examples are Tee Martin leading Tennessee to National Title the year AFTER Peyton Manning left, and Kevin Hogan leading Stanford to Rose Bowl the year AFTER Andrew Luck left.
Bobby O and JJAW are bad losses. Smith blocked better than Park, but Tucker Fisk blocks better than Smith.
(08-15-2019, 06:54 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I'm not going to put down the contributions of JJAW and Trent Irwin, but I see the current WR group as deeper, with more better athletes than last year. The starting OL will be better if the projected starters stay intact. This will give a now veteran QB the opportunity to continue being a stalwart in the passing game. Love wasn't healthy or running behind a sound OL in 2018. Scarlett has been improving every year, and the True Frosh are great athletes. Most important, the playbook is being simplified to allow the best talents on the field faster.
The shambling husk of Bryce Love, able to be taken down by DL with one arm (yes, this happened multiple times), was a detriment to us last year with the horrid line play. Scarlett would've at least fought and fallen forwards for a couple yards, as we saw in El Paso. And Scarlett can actually catch out of the backfield too. My one worry is that KJ was really being bailed out by an amazing receiving corps last season. If you watch the film, he doesn't come out quite as NFL-ready as you might think. IMO he's a slightly more pro-looking, less mobile Kevin Hogan.
(08-15-2019, 06:54 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The Defense is where I see the biggest strides will be made. It seems to me Stanford has the most Front Seven depth it has had since the Gardner/Mauro/Murphy years. Swann, Williams, and Booker are backed by guys who have played and been in the program for a few years. To my surprise, Stanford was actually middle of the Pac in run D in 2018, and was just a tad under 4 YPC. I see them improving on this mark, not only because the DL is better and more experienced, but also because contrary to what was assumed, the ILBs might not actually be the weakness people have been fearing, and the pass rush looks to be improved as well, with so much depth at OLB.
Agreed that DL will look better; maybe not INCREDIBLE, but better. Anderson said in an interview he has 5-6 guys he's comfortable with. We have no idea if ILB will be a weakness until Northwestern (attempts to) run it down our throats. Need to be stout in the middle; Toohill and J. Fox can contain the edge. Reid and/or A. Fox will come in to rush the passer.
(08-15-2019, 06:54 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Everyone knows about Paulson Adebo, but Obi Eboh has been receiving a lot of acclaim, not just in these August practices. I saw an interview with JJAW in April in which he said Eboh was the guy to watch for in the secondary. I will admit the Safety position seems to be the weak link, but with two very good CBs and what looks like a strong front seven that will get pressure on opposing QBs, that weakness is mitigated a bit. That said, I really liked what I saw from Kendall Williamson as a Frosh, and he looks to be having a much expanded role this season.
Safety is 100% the weak link (besides offensive playcalling), IMO. And you and I must have watched different Kendall Williamsons. He was picked on whenever he came into the game. Although a) he was a freshman so you expect him to take some lumps and grow, and b) switching to S from CB/NB may help here.
(08-15-2019, 06:54 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The other reason to believe this team will be better than people are assuming is the high end talent on the roster. Stanford has three players on pre-season All-America lists in Little, Adebo, and Parkinson. Costello is projected as the #4 ranked NFL Draft QB. Yes, the schedule is brutal, almost unfair to the players, but that also means Stanford will likely play its first four games on national TV, which could inspire the team. I don't think it likely they can win 9+ games because the schedule is so tough, but I do think 8-4 against this schedule will prove the 2019 team was better than the 2018 versions, and all things considered, such a record will constitute a successful season.
Agreed that 8-4 is a good season considering the SOS. I worry that we're looking more at 6-6, but also concede this could be considered somewhat of a "rebuilding year"...look how young most positions are slated to be, and not to mention we have a former 5* QB that many insiders feel is ALREADY BETTER than KJ waiting in the wings!
(08-15-2019, 06:54 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The biggest concern is the fact the 2nd team OL is 4/5 True Frosh. How the hell was THAT allowed to happen?
Will post later about the whole breakdown of how we got to this point.
(08-15-2019, 10:34 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote:(08-15-2019, 06:54 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The biggest concern is the fact the 2nd team OL is 4/5 True Frosh. How the hell was THAT allowed to happen?
Will post later about the whole breakdown of how we got to this point.
And here's the breakdown. Going in order of composite recruiting ranking since the class of 2015, who would be 5th year seniors now:
2015
Nick Wilson —> Retired, now a grad student in ME @ Stanford
Brian Chaffin —> Grad transferred to Rice for his MBA
Jack Dreyer —> Medical retirement
Austin Maihen —> Medical retirement
2016
Clark Yarbrough —> Medical retirement
Devery Hamilton
Henry Hattis
Nate Herbig —> Declared for NFL due to perceived extenuating non-football circumstances
Dylan Powell
2017
Foster Sarell
Walker Little
Drew Dalman
2018
Trey Stratford —> likely medical retirement
There are 2 very simple reasons for why we got here:
- 2015's OL class being a total flop
- The coaches inexplicably only recruiting 1 OL (who will probably never play!) in 2018, which is WAY more egregious and inexcusable. This should never have been the target number of OL for a class. Ever. Rumor has it Bloomgren completely checked out while on his way out the door, and Carberry was horrified when he arrived. This is also why I believe we're taking 4-5 OL this class, not just the 3 currently committed.
RE: One fan's take on Football - OL84 - 08-15-2019
Even though they did not get much love, Chaffin and Wilson are big losses to this team. Their experience in the system and depth will be missed, even if they may have been recruited over. OL needs depth to develop, and, as we learned last year, 5 bodies is a lot of injury risk.
I am cautiously optimistic about the front 7, despite the deplorable lack of experience at ILB. That is another hole in the pipeline, but the athleticism of Robinson, JMF and Miezan is tantalizing, and there are other bodies and frosh to give options. Agree re DL possibilities, but until we see consistent production, I hesitate to expect too much. Still, this team really needs the DL experience to blossom into sacks and stops given the green ILBs.
The DB's need a lot of development, more than in past years. Antoine has room to grow, and SS is a total black hole in terms of experience. Hopefully Eboh comes through, but SS looks like biggest question mark on the field. Glad to have Adebo island, but Eboh may get a lot of balls thrown his way.
We have lots of options and decent experience at the O skill positions, so much cause for hope all around. RB will be interesting. Will Cam seize the moment or will one of the younger players step up and shine? Glad to have so many options. Parkinson will need to block some, but he has Ertz-like potential if we can develop enough of a run game to keep the coverage honest. Surprising lack of catches for our returning WR's, but love the talent and I expect a couple stars to emerge during the season.
We have too many new faces and too many question marks to expect too much, but this could be one of those Stanford teams that shocks everyone with some big upsets and one of our old-fashioned AYFKM games.
Can't wait for NW!
RE: One fan's take on Football - slide - 08-15-2019
2015 was inexplicable. Connor Williams, now starting in the NFL, camped with us, dominated according to non-Bloom sources, and was not offered. then the non-Tillery pursuit class.
2017 recall Bloom did not want to offer Dalman, now a starter, but still light on numbers with known likely medicals.
2018 the worst. one offer, Salyer, for the longest time and he showed little to no interest in Stanford. meanwhile #1 OL recruit Petit-Frere has been teed up early to staff (for 2 years) but staff showed no interest until mid-summer then went into Hail Mary mode (unanswered). then a late offer (accepted) by a lower level recruit who may medical.
not sure which was worse: the OL/OC calls on the above or the oversight/team management of the calls above. we still have numerous unused scholarships.
RE: One fan's take on Football - SamuelMcF - 08-15-2019
(08-15-2019, 02:18 PM)slide Wrote: 2015 was inexplicable. Connor Williams, now starting in the NFL, camped with us, dominated according to non-Bloom sources, and was not offered. then the non-Tillery pursuit class.
2017 recall Bloom did not want to offer Dalman, now a starter, but still light on numbers with known likely medicals.
2018 the worst. one offer, Salyer, for the longest time and he showed little to no interest in Stanford. meanwhile #1 OL recruit Petit-Frere has been teed up early to staff (for 2 years) but staff showed no interest until mid-summer then went into Hail Mary mode (unanswered). then a late offer (accepted) by a lower level recruit who may medical.
not sure which was worse: the OL/OC calls on the above or the oversight/team management of the calls above. we still have numerous unused scholarships.
Slide, while all accurate, I think this tips into "paywall" territory. Keep it there.
RE: One fan's take on Football - BobK - 08-15-2019
This is old news and very appropriate for this board
RE: One fan's take on Football - Brickcity - 08-15-2019
(08-15-2019, 02:25 PM)SamuelMcF Wrote:(08-15-2019, 02:18 PM)slide Wrote: 2015 was inexplicable. Connor Williams, now starting in the NFL, camped with us, dominated according to non-Bloom sources, and was not offered. then the non-Tillery pursuit class.
2017 recall Bloom did not want to offer Dalman, now a starter, but still light on numbers with known likely medicals.
2018 the worst. one offer, Salyer, for the longest time and he showed little to no interest in Stanford. meanwhile #1 OL recruit Petit-Frere has been teed up early to staff (for 2 years) but staff showed no interest until mid-summer then went into Hail Mary mode (unanswered). then a late offer (accepted) by a lower level recruit who may medical.
not sure which was worse: the OL/OC calls on the above or the oversight/team management of the calls above. we still have numerous unused scholarships.
Slide, while all accurate, I think this tips into "paywall" territory. Keep it there.
So, what I'm gathering is that Bloomgren was a God awful recruiter. It's been clear for a while that he took his last year off from recruiting but I hadn't realized he was apparently asleep at the wheel for a few years, at least.
RE: One fan's take on Football - slide - 08-15-2019
(08-15-2019, 02:25 PM)SamuelMcF Wrote: Slide, while all accurate, I think this tips into "paywall" territory. Keep it there.
not sure about that. if Andy, RJ or Jacob want to call me on it, fine.
it's old for recruiting history and probably only pertinent given on-going OL woe numbers and the seeming lack of urgency by some. I still am hopeful that we will get a 4th OL from our current offers, but the chances seem to be thinning.
RE: One fan's take on Football - ADPinWDC - 08-15-2019
Great POST, Outsider Fan. +1
Sure, it’s August – I’m in the upbeat camp, also:
Two different seasons last year, once Shaw admitted we could not run. We finished 11th in Pac12 in Rushing (107y per game).
SO, Shaw comes out throwing in 2019. Green lights for KJ & Corp. Lock, stock and two smoking barrels.
OLINE: For all the hand-wringing, this is an EXPERIENCED group. Little-Hamilton-Dalman-Hattis-Sorrel. "LIKE"
QB: Despite a conservative first half, still, Costello was the #2 QB last season in Pac12 (270y+ per game) – behind Minshew, who was throwing it 50 a game. Losing Irwin, K.Smith and JJAW… STILL, I think M.Wilson, Weddington, O St.Brown, Fehoko (at 6’4, 220), Colby + Scooter at TE, D.Stewart, and add in newcomer Elijah "Arcega" Higgins – this is a better Corp than Luck had.
Plus KJ is going to get tosses to some RBs on wheel routes – Peat, A.Jones.
KJ lights it up for 4,000 yards if the OLine gels. Mills is not a step down if KJ gets hurt.
Clemson is winning Nat’l Championships throwing the ball and slicing up Bama's NFL caliber Defense.
RB: Last year was a DOWN year for Love; so we improve. Scarlett is a PROVEN 5th year Senior, runs gritty like Gaffney.
We will not be worse running the ball than we were in 2018. As a true frosh, B.Love got 40 touches; maybe A.Jones gets same.
KICKING: Jet Toner was solid last season. If Shaw doesn’t have a Super-Punter (Bailey), maybe he goes for it more often.
DLINE: I agree with OutsiderFan: This is a stocky group, apparently led by Jo.Swann in first two weeks of Fall camp.
DWPerry, M.Williams, Booker, Schaffer with very good, quick Defensive Ends: Reid, A.Fox, Umerah, 4*-Frosh diCosmo.
-- Biggest Problem: WASH and OREG bring NFL caliber OLines, as does NDAM.
LBs: We lost talent here, but I agree with the group and like the upside of Meizan and JM.Farrar, plus Robinson and Pryts.
At outside LB, we are in good shape with Senior Toohill and J.Fox, plus stud-Frosh Pakola, Herron, and Damuni.
Find a place to put super-Frosh Tristan Sinclair – try him at Safety or Nickel; he hits like a truck. Special Teams, obviously.
CBs: Adebo is the next Richard Sherman. Paired with Eboh – a pair of murderous ball-hawks. AGREED.
SAFETY: I share everyone’s concern… At least Antoine returns. If Williamson or Head step up, maybe J.McGill (?), then we might be OK.
If the Front 7 bring pressure, we get some TOs.
Overall, given the schedule, this team faces LITTLE margin for error – we could go 10-2, beat Utah in Pac12 Champ game and land in Roses.
Or get bounced down to Vegas Bowl at a sloppy 7-5. Despite some recruiting gaps, there is too much talent on this team. We are spoiled now.
Unlike last season, Shaw realizes this year that from the first snap we must THROW THE BALL. Open gaps for the run.
A middle scenario -- if we beat one of OREG or WASH -- has us at 9-3 in the Holiday Bowl (Fri, Dec. 27, San Diego),
against perhaps, NEBR… alums Scott Frost and Troy Walters.
Shaw is the only coach in the Pac12 with a winning record against each team we face in the league and NDAM.
This is an odd year: Look what we did to Nasty Dame in 2015 (the nuke from Uke) and then in 2017 -- not favored either game.
We beat those ladies in 2013 and 2011 also. And in 2009 Gerhart stomped all over the Domers.
As head coach starting 2011, he has never lost to CAL or UCLA – an amazing feat.
RE: One fan's take on Football - Goose - 08-16-2019
(08-15-2019, 09:58 PM)ADPinWDC Wrote: Great POST, Outsider Fan. +1I am also upbeat. While I realize there are questions, many of the possible answers and outcomes are much better than last year.
Sure, it’s August – I’m in the upbeat camp, also:
Quote:Two different seasons last year, once Shaw admitted we could not run. We finished 11th in Pac12 in Rushing (107y per game).
True. And that was a serious problem. Being one-dimensional is a problem, no matter which dimension it is. You can compensate for it by being very good in that one dimension, but it is very difficult to win the PAC-12 that way. Despite the fact Leach has done a great job at WSU, he is still without a Rose Bowl.
Quote:
SO, Shaw comes out throwing in 2019. Green lights for KJ & Corp. Lock, stock and two smoking barrels.
I really doubt that. I am pretty sure you are going to see Shaw try real hard to establish the run, especially in the first game. If that doesn't appear to work, I do agree he will open it up faster that he would have done previously. However, I believe he wants to get the team back to being what he has always said he wanted it to be, namely balanced. To do so, he has to prove to everybody that we can and will run the ball. If he succeeds in that, which I think he will, Stanford will actually be a force. It will give our defense some time on the sidelines, so they can be great when they are on the field. The offense will get lots of yards in the air on fewer reps. WSU was able to beat us because they switched to a two deep when they realized Shaw was committed to throwing the ball regardless, because we couldn't run. That won't happen this year. This year, we will be able to pound the ball again. Not all the time, but rather whenever we want to. That will really put the opposing defense in a bind and give single coverage on our very good receivers lots of the time. That is what we want to see, because then KJ can really shine.
RE: One fan's take on Football - SamuelMcF - 08-16-2019
Bob and slide: fair enough. I think the term "Shaw-gren" set off a couple alarm bells in my head; I don't remember seeing it here. In any case, very true; the later-years OL recruiting under Bloom was...yikes.
ADP: Scarlett will get a few wheel routes and screens (already happened last season), Toner had the most accurate kicking season in Stanford history last season (he missed 1 FG all year!), Pakola is at DE now, DiCosmo is an ILB, worried about OL if injuries happen (my money is on Hamilton who hasn't had a complete season yet).
Goose: Wazzu beat us because Sean Barton got torched down the seam by a slot receiver/RB (I forget) on 3rd and a million with like 30 seconds left. Their defense couldn't stop us at all, even WITH adjusting to the pass. And even if the line isn't amazing, Scarlett can actually push a pile. Bryce could get taken down with 1 arm, and repeatedly was.
RE: One fan's take on Football - Phogge - 08-16-2019
(08-16-2019, 10:33 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote: Bob and slide: fair enough. I think the term "Shaw-gren" set off a couple alarm bells in my head; I don't remember seeing it here. In any case, very true; the later-years OL recruiting under Bloom was...yikes.
ADP: Scarlett will get a few wheel routes and screens (already happened last season), Toner had the most accurate kicking season in Stanford history last season (he missed 1 FG all year!), Pakola is at DE now, DiCosmo is an ILB, worried about OL if injuries happen (my money is on Hamilton who hasn't had a complete season yet).
Goose: Wazzu beat us because Sean Barton got torched down the seam by a slot receiver/RB (I forget) on 3rd and a million with like 30 seconds left. Their defense couldn't stop us at all, even WITH adjusting to the pass. And even if the line isn't amazing, Scarlett can actually push a pile. Bryce could get taken down with 1 arm, and repeatedly was.
I think Shawgren was birthed on TDome, a non paywall. I have imparted some information on the reason that Shaw refused us on our 60 Minutes seasoning opening pitch idea about a McCaffrey profile for one of the largest national audiences in the business after he enjoyed our 60 Sports virtual reality story. Also the lack of backing by staff of Voldemort campaigns for Luck, Gerhart and Love. I am convinced that if Cavalli was SID/Assistant AD at the time then Toby and probably Love would have won the award.
Shaw is a complex, if extremely personally dull, football coach. I think that the lack of pizazz in the SID office is his doing. Stanford runs a clean, successful program and that is to be admired. Good SID's with support from staff often figure out ways to get the message out and I think Stanford's shortcomings in that arena eventually hurt the program.
Jus saying... and for the record I lost a couple of weeks work over the McCaffrey refusal.
RE: One fan's take on Football - slide - 08-16-2019
SMF -- I'm not sure on origins of Shaw-gren but it has been out there a while. in use on this board since November 2017 per search.
in text threads with some other diehard STMs (as now referred to by the AD), the Shah of I Ran is the new given nom de plume with "AyatollahSo" trotted out after telegraphed run calls into the teeth of a stacked defense waiting for said call. not very PC but pithy for texting and getting message across. probably too combative here.
RE: One fan's take on Football - OutsiderFan - 08-16-2019
How long has Stanford employed data analysts to help inform what Stanford should do on the football field in given situations?
Not to oversimplify things, but when it comes to run-pass ratio, it should be really simple. If there are 8 in the box, you pass, period. To avoid stacked boxes - so you can run - you spread the field and pass more, especially early in games.
This doesn't mean you can't line up in tight, predominant run personnel and formations. The data is very clear that you just cannot run into stacked boxes, ever, if you desire gaining yards, first downs, and points. If you just want to run clock, and don't need to score, then fine, run into stacked boxes just to see if your OL can impose its will on the defense.
I have to believe Shaw has learned and internalized what the data says. The fact he's simplified the offense to get younger guys on the field faster, demonstrates a willingness to evolve. As does the fact Stanford threw the ball much more last year after the run game faltered. Now, if we see a further demonstration of understanding that it's better to pass to set up the run, and use play action passing more, then we'll see Stanford's full potential on offense. I'm optimistic this is the Stanford offense we will see this year.
RE: One fan's take on Football - martyup - 08-16-2019
When a D stacks the box and the RB gets to the 2nd level, he's gone to the house. In '15 CMac ran through stacked boxes on his way to one of the best seasons ever by a RB. In '17 BLove did the same. It's not surprising that DS expected more of the same in '18. After 4 games, he changed the game plan.
RE: One fan's take on Football - SamuelMcF - 08-16-2019
(08-16-2019, 12:39 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: How long has Stanford employed data analysts to help inform what Stanford should do on the football field in given situations?
For a while now - there was a fun segment on offensive analyst Tsuyoshi Kawata a few years back on Pac-12 Network, IIRC.
(08-16-2019, 12:39 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I have to believe Shaw has learned and internalized what the data says. The fact he's simplified the offense to get younger guys on the field faster, demonstrates a willingness to evolve. As does the fact Stanford threw the ball much more last year after the run game faltered. Now, if we see a further demonstration of understanding that it's better to pass to set up the run, and use play action passing more, then we'll see Stanford's full potential on offense. I'm optimistic this is the Stanford offense we will see this year.
Many in the know unfortunately do not share your optimism, but it's all speculation until the season starts.
RE: One fan's take on Football - OutsiderFan - 08-16-2019
(08-16-2019, 01:06 PM)martyup Wrote: When a D stacks the box and the RB gets to the 2nd level, he's gone to the house. In '15 CMac ran through stacked boxes on his way to one of the best seasons ever by a RB. In '17 BLove did the same. It's not surprising that DS expected more of the same in '18. After 4 games, he changed the game plan.
Just because something works out, it doesn't mean the decision that led to the result was a good one. I can send a LHP to face a right hand batter who crushes left hand pitching, and see the LHP retire him, but that doesn't mean it would have been a smart decision. It would have been very lucky.
Same with running into stacked boxes. Sure, you get a couple runs that break through the defense. But all or nothing is not sustainable, winning offensive football. Pressuring the defense consistently in diverse ways, being a threat to move the ball all the time by being unpredictable and not running into stacked boxes, is much more effective.
You don't beat the best opponents by playing for lucky breaks. You beat them playing the percentages.
RE: One fan's take on Football - SamuelMcF - 08-16-2019
(08-16-2019, 01:29 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(08-16-2019, 01:06 PM)martyup Wrote: When a D stacks the box and the RB gets to the 2nd level, he's gone to the house. In '15 CMac ran through stacked boxes on his way to one of the best seasons ever by a RB. In '17 BLove did the same. It's not surprising that DS expected more of the same in '18. After 4 games, he changed the game plan.
Just because something works out, it doesn't mean the decision that led to the result was a good one. I can send a LHP to face a right hand batter who crushes left hand pitching, and see the LHP retire him, but that doesn't mean it would have been a smart decision. It would have been very lucky.
Same with running into stacked boxes. Sure, you get a couple runs that break through the defense. But all or nothing is not sustainable, winning offensive football. Pressuring the defense consistently in diverse ways, being a threat to move the ball all the time by being unpredictable and not running into stacked boxes, is much more effective.
You don't beat the best opponents by playing for lucky breaks. You beat them playing the percentages.
You're preaching to the choir, sir.