WBB:Rankings - Printable Version

WBB:Rankings - Printable Version

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WBB:Rankings - 81alum - 12-23-2019

After our Texas loss, we drop from 1 to 5. Tennessee is still ranked and now so is Texas. Gonzaga and half the Pac 12 are hanging in there. Syracuse has long departed, having now gone 6-5.

Stanford has had the 7th toughest strength of schedule, nationally. Team ESPN and South Carolina have had tougher, say the computers. Most of the other top teams are below us but in the top 20 SoS. Imagine what will happen to SoS when we, Oregon, and Oregon State all play each other twice.

1 Team ESPN
2 Oregon
3 Oregon State
4 South Carolina
5 Stanford
6 Baylor
7 Louisville
8 Florida State
9 NC State
10 UCLA

15 Mississippi State

17 Gonzaga
18 Arizona

22 Tennessee

25 Texas

RE: WBB:Rankings - BostonCard - 12-23-2019

Seems about right. I'm not sure that UConn is the best team in the country, but they are undefeated. I think it will be an upset if Oregon doesn't win the championship.

BC

RE: WBB:Rankings - TheRicker - 12-23-2019

Stanford drops to 4th in NCAA RPI, from 2nd.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/associated-press

RE: WBB:Rankings - qwerty49 - 12-23-2019

The PAC teams will beat each other up and enter the NCAA tournament with 3-4 losses. Meanwhile the Evil Empire will continue to face cupcakes and will be top seeded. They probably won’t face a PAC team until the finals.

When they will lose of course.

RE: WBB:Rankings - Jskass - 12-23-2019

Or if Team ESPN loses one of their upcoming non-conf games they could end up w a 2 seed — or perhaps they end up losing in the regional final to a 2 seed such as UCLA!

RE: WBB:Rankings - 2006alum - 12-23-2019

(12-23-2019, 02:33 PM)qwerty49 Wrote: The PAC teams will beat each other up and enter the NCAA tournament with 3-4 losses. Meanwhile the Evil Empire will continue to face cupcakes and will be top seeded. They probably won’t face a PAC team until the finals.

When they will lose of course.

Well in fairness, UConn already played (and beat) Cal, and will host Oregon on Feb. 3. They also have OOC games against Baylor, South Carolina, Tennessee, Notre Dame, DePaul, and Ohio State, all of whom have been among the top 25 teams in the country over the past few seasons. There are a lot of reasons to knock UConn, but shying away from scheduling tough OOC opponents is not one. There is no coach I can think of who schedules OOC games as aggressively as Geno, especially since they've been relegated to a second-tier conference.

More generally, I am glad the #1 monkey is off our back. We didn't deserve it, and we need to stay hungry. Texas played like they were gunning to take down #1, and we played like we thought we'd be able to coast to the holidays.

I want Carrington back ASAP. She almost NEVER plays like she's not hungry to win.

RE: WBB:Rankings - 81alum - 12-23-2019

(12-23-2019, 02:53 PM)2006alum Wrote: I want Carrington back ASAP. She almost NEVER plays like she's not hungry to win.

Agreed!

Lexie is a lot like Carrington in that attitudinal scrappiness, but it would be a lot better to have them both out there.

RE: WBB:Rankings - 81alum - 01-20-2020

Well, the trip to Oregon has resulted in more changes:

1) South Carolina
2) Baylor
3) UConn
4) Oregon
5) Louisville
6) Stanford
7) Oregon State
8) NC State
9) Mississippi State
10) UCLA
13) Gonzaga
16) Arizona State
18) Arizona
23) Tennessee

Oregon State improved from 8 to 7 by beating Cal and hanging with us.
We dropped 3 spots to make way for Oregon and UConn to move up.

On RPI a crazy thing happened. We went from 9th to 4th in RPI with our split weekend. Oregon dropped from 8th to 7th. Oregon State dropped from 5th to 10th. So losing to Oregon did not hurt us, and beating OSU helped us. If I were Oregon I'd be unhappy that winning two games dropped my RPI. I guess that is the result of playing doormat Cal?

And we lead the Pac 12 in national RPI rankings:

4 Stanford
7 UCLA
8 Oregon
10 Oregon State
28 Arizona State

RE: WBB:Rankings - Jskass - 01-20-2020

not surprised that OR didn't move up more, given the tendency to give teams like UConn credit for not losing to Tulsa. Just wait and see IF MS State beats South Carolina today and if (heaven forbid, for those UConn fans!) TN were to beat UConn later this week!

RE: WBB:Rankings - BostonCard - 01-20-2020

(01-20-2020, 12:55 PM)81alum Wrote: Well, the trip to Oregon has resulted in more changes:

1) South Carolina
2) Baylor
3) UConn
4) Oregon
5) Louisville
6) Stanford
7) Oregon State
8) NC State
9) Mississippi State
10) UCLA
13) Gonzaga
16) Arizona State
18) Arizona
23) Tennessee

Oregon State improved from 8 to 7 by beating Cal and hanging with us.
We dropped 3 spots to make way for Oregon and UConn to move up.

On RPI a crazy thing happened. We went from 9th to 4th in RPI with our split weekend. Oregon dropped from 8th to 7th. Oregon State dropped from 5th to 10th. So losing to Oregon did not hurt us, and beating OSU helped us. If I were Oregon I'd be unhappy that winning two games dropped my RPI. I guess that is the result of playing doormat Cal?

And we lead the Pac 12 in national RPI rankings:

4 Stanford
7 UCLA
8 Oregon
10 Oregon State
28 Arizona State

I think I predicted fifth; sixth is pretty reasonable. I’m surprised OSU moved up. They beat a really bad Cal team, and though they hung with us and it was a close game, it was still a home loss to a team that really struggled at Oregon a couple days earlier.

Also surprised Oregon didn’t move up more.

BC

RE: WBB:Rankings - 81alum - 01-20-2020

(01-20-2020, 01:31 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Also surprised Oregon didn’t move up more.

BC

Oregon plays UConn in a couple of weeks, at Storrs. A convincing win there would settle things pretty well. It would be a good thing for the Pac 12 if Oregon pulls that off.

RE: WBB:Rankings - TheFarm07 - 01-20-2020

(01-20-2020, 02:02 PM)81alum Wrote:
(01-20-2020, 01:31 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Also surprised Oregon didn’t move up more.

BC
Oregon plays UConn in a couple of weeks, at Storrs. A convincing win there would settle things pretty well. It would be a good thing for the Pac 12 if Oregon pulls that off.

After watching UConn's loss against Baylor and Oregon all season, I would be surprised if the Ducks' margin of victory is not at least double digits. Olivia Nelson-Ododa, their main post player could not stop Baylor's inside game and was 0/8 herself. Hebard could have a field day.

RE: WBB:Rankings - Jskass - 01-20-2020

Plus who on CT can defend Satou Sabally?

Plus who on CR can defend Satou Sabally?

RE: WBB:Rankings - CompSci87 - 01-20-2020

From what I've seen of UConn, this year, they look highly vulnerable. They have three excellent perimeter players, one good post, and after that a big dropoff. Oregon ought to cook them.

RE: WBB:Rankings - BobK - 01-20-2020

South Carolina beats Mississippi State by 2 as Mississippi State turns the ball over with 6 seconds left

RE: WBB:Rankings - 81alum - 01-20-2020

(01-20-2020, 07:04 PM)BobK Wrote: South Carolina beats Mississippi State by 2 as Mississippi State turns the ball over with 6 seconds left

That was a tragedy. Sigh.

RE: WBB:Rankings - crackpot - 01-21-2020

(01-20-2020, 04:02 PM)TheFarm07 Wrote:
(01-20-2020, 02:02 PM)81alum Wrote:
(01-20-2020, 01:31 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Also surprised Oregon didn’t move up more.

BC
Oregon plays UConn in a couple of weeks, at Storrs. A convincing win there would settle things pretty well. It would be a good thing for the Pac 12 if Oregon pulls that off.

After watching UConn's loss against Baylor and Oregon all season, I would be surprised if the Ducks' margin of victory is not at least double digits. Olivia Nelson-Ododa, their main post player could not stop Baylor's inside game and was 0/8 herself. Hebard could have a field day.

I will be disappointed with anything less than a 20 point win by the Ducks. I sure hope they prepare for this as they did for us.

Then again, with Geno's refs...

RE: WBB:Rankings - 81alum - 02-09-2020

With the home loss to UCLA our RPI drops to 11, Massey has us at 8.

This inside-the-Pac-12 bloodletting was expected and everyone in the Pac 12 has lost at least once to someone else in the Pac 12. That will continue--the only question is whether Oregon can win out. UCLA gets them at home, as do we.

Everything is still possible if we win out--but beating Oregon while short handed seems unlikely. Winning out except for Oregon would put us in a good place --at least 3rd and possibly 2nd depending on how UCLA does. But we have SC and Oregon State at home, and road trips to altitude and to the Arizona schools. Even Oregon had trouble and a loss going to the Arizona schools.

My most optimistic prediction would be that we go 5-2 the rest of the regular season, beginning with a win today. If we do that while beating Arizona and Oregon State we will lock in 3rd in the conference and avoid a potential semifinal game against Oregon. The pessimistic outlook is that we lose to one of those two schools or we do even worse and go 4-3 in the remaining regular season, and wind up no better than 4th in the league, giving us a semifinal match with Oregon.

Assuming that we do well enough to get to Oregon in the Pac 12 tournament and lose to it, that would leave us:
Optimist: 7-3 the rest of the way, resulting in a 27-6 record before the NCAAs. Then maybe a 2 or a 3 seed.
Pessimist: 5-4 the rest of the way, resulting in a 25-7 record before the NCAAs. Then maybe a 3 or a 4 seed.

With Geno playing creampuffs, every one of those losses cuts into Tara's 5 game lead over him in the race to catch Pat.

In the NCAAs, with at least a 4 seed, hopefully we get two home wins. Beyond that it is hard to say. Optimistically we get a third win and make it to the elite eight. Pessimistically we get a bad matchup and go home.

Optimist: final record 30-7, lose in elite eight.
Pessimist: final record 27-8, lose in sweet sixteen.

Tara's wins coming into this year: 1067.
Optimist: 1097 after this year.
Pessimist: 1094 after this year.
Pat Summit record: 1098

So close.

RE: WBB:Rankings - M T - 02-09-2020

(02-09-2020, 08:21 AM)81alum Wrote: My most optimistic prediction would be that we go 5-2 the rest of the regular season, beginning with a win today. If we do that while beating Arizona and Oregon State we will lock in 3rd in the conference and avoid a potential semifinal game against Oregon. The pessimistic outlook is that we lose to one of those two schools or we do even worse and go 4-3 in the remaining regular season, and wind up no better than 4th in the league, giving us a semifinal match with Oregon.

Tara's wins coming into this year: 1067.

Optimist: 1097 after this year.

Pessimist: 1094 after this year.

Pat Summit record: 1098

So, your optimistic prediction is that we lose to Oregon State (that we already beat at their place) or to Arizona or ASU, as well as Oregon? Then, continuing, you assume we lose to Oregon in the PAC-12 tourney. On top of that, you figure we lose in the elite eight. I could see that outcome, but it wouldn't be what I'd call optimistic!

With your pessimistic view of Stanford losing 3 games in the remainder of the conference season, I don't think you considered that might make Stanford 5th or even 6th (4 way tie for 3rd is possible among OSU, ASU, Arizona, Stanford with 5 losses). That could balance out one of the losses with an extra win in the first day of the conference tourney.

To boil it down, your "optimist" expects 2 losses in the regular season (5-2 from Saturday), seeding of 3rd in the conf. tourney and losing the championship game (2-1), and losing in the elite eight (3-1). The easiest way to get one more win is to only lose 1 more game in the regular season. Next most realistic may be to get to the final four!

As I said in my earlier posting, I think the committee, under whatever pressure, is going to match up UConn & Stanford around that Elite Eight or maybe Sweet Sixteen game.

RE: WBB:Rankings - 81alum - 02-09-2020

(02-09-2020, 04:46 PM)M T Wrote: To boil it down, your "optimist" expects 2 losses in the regular season (5-2 from Saturday), seeding of 3rd in the conf. tourney and losing the championship game (2-1), and losing in the elite eight (3-1). The easiest way to get one more win is to only lose 1 more game in the regular season. Next most realistic may be to get to the final four!

Yes, I was pretty depressed after the UCLA game. My optimistic view is that we win both games at altitude (not a given,) lose to Oregon at home, beat Oregon State at home, split the trip to the Arizona schools, get seeded third in Pac 12, win two games (the second game probably being against UCLA again,) lose again to Oregon in the finals, then win three games in the NCAAs before losing. It is just really, really hard for me to see us doing better than that.

Now, if Carrington comes back and starts playing like her old self I would revise that view. I could see us beating Oregon like last year, with a little luck and a lotta Carrington.