Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out

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Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - Leftcoast - 02-23-2020

I just checked Lunardi’s tournament projections and knock my stunned self over with a feather or the slightest flutter of a Spring breeze.

We are WAY above where I expected on ESPN’s Bracketology for Feb 23 and this is prior to today’s win. (Not that beating WSU will help much.)

Cincinnati, Stanford, UCLA and Miss St are Lunardi’s first four out and in that order. USC is among the last four in and they lost today’s game. So he’s saying there’s a chance ...

https://twitter.com/espnlunardi/status/1231619148389781504

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - Farm93 - 02-23-2020

(02-23-2020, 09:55 PM)Leftcoast Wrote: We are WAY above where I expected on ESPN’s Bracketology for Feb 23 prior to our win. (Not that beating WSU will help much.)

Cincinnati, Stanford, UCLA and Miss St are the first four out in that order.

https://twitter.com/espnlunardi/status/1231374480934608897

The team has a Quad 3 home game, a Quad 1 home game and two Quad 1 road games.
And then the Pac-12 tournament

If the first four out is close, and the mid-majors that are tournament locks actually win their post-season tournaments, then it seems like 3 more wins might be enough. 4 should be enough.

Getting 3 or 4 wins out of the next 5 or 6 games is a different story, but at least they are in the mix in late February.

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - JJJ - 02-23-2020

Mark my words. We’re going dancing. ??⛹?‍♂️????

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - WBB fan - 02-23-2020

(02-23-2020, 11:08 PM)JJJ Wrote: Mark my words. We’re going dancing. ??⛹?‍♂️????

Would be great. I'm a WBB fan (clearly from my username), but I'm paying attention to the men as well this year. Keep playing hard, and it may well happen.

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - OutsiderFan - 02-24-2020

Stanford is absolutely a bubble team. Somehow KenPom has them #34, but Sagarin has them at #59, one spot above UCLA.

To me, it's really simple. Must sweep Utah and Colorado at home and split in Oregon. That would give them a 6-1 record in last 7 games, something closer to how the team started the season.

Then they probably also must win one Pac-12 Tournament game. That would give them a 5-2 record in their last 7 games, a 9-9 conference record and 21-12 overall, good enough for NCAA resume. I personally don't think they will do this and will not make the NCAA field.

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - TooMuchTV - 02-24-2020

Call me optimistic, but I hope the regular season finale against the Ducks is a battle for the #4 seed in the Pac-12 tournament.

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - teejers1 - 02-24-2020

(02-24-2020, 08:16 AM)TooMuchTV Wrote: Call me optimistic, but I hope the regular season finale against the Ducks is a battle for the #4 seed in the Pac-12 tournament.

The big picture problem is that you don't want to play UW in R1 of the Pac 12 tourney. They are so freaking talented/dangerous. Yeah, Stanford has beaten them twice, but I prefer to play anyone else (of the likely bottom-dwellers). Stanford is going to need to win (at least) 1 P12 tourney game. You'd like that to be against someone else. Just this fan's opinion.

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - Goose - 02-24-2020

(02-24-2020, 08:05 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Stanford is absolutely a bubble team. Somehow KenPom has them #34, but Sagarin has them at #59, one spot above UCLA.

To me, it's really simple. Must sweep Utah and Colorado at home and split in Oregon. That would give them a 6-1 record in last 7 games, something closer to how the team started the season.

Then they probably also must win one Pac-12 Tournament game. That would give them a 5-2 record in their last 7 games, a 9-9 conference record and 21-12 overall, good enough for NCAA resume. I personally don't think they will do this and will not make the NCAA field.

OF, I think your numbers are a bit off. Right now, with the WSU win, Stanford is 18-9(7-7). If they lose only to Oregon, they would be 21-10(10-8). Go 1-1 in the Tournament, they finish 22-11(11-9) winning 7 of the last 9. That is a little better. Maybe enough? Beating Colorado could be tough, but it is doable. A win over a #18 ranked opponent (even if they aren't #18 by the time we play them) should get us in. If we lose that game, it gets harder.

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - OutsiderFan - 02-24-2020

(02-24-2020, 08:59 AM)Goose Wrote:
(02-24-2020, 08:05 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Stanford is absolutely a bubble team. Somehow KenPom has them #34, but Sagarin has them at #59, one spot above UCLA.

To me, it's really simple. Must sweep Utah and Colorado at home and split in Oregon. That would give them a 6-1 record in last 7 games, something closer to how the team started the season.

Then they probably also must win one Pac-12 Tournament game. That would give them a 5-2 record in their last 7 games, a 9-9 conference record and 21-12 overall, good enough for NCAA resume. I personally don't think they will do this and will not make the NCAA field.

OF, I think your numbers are a bit off. Right now, with the WSU win, Stanford is 18-9(7-7). If they lose only to Oregon, they would be 21-10(10-8). Go 1-1 in the Tournament, they finish 22-11(11-9) winning 7 of the last 9. That is a little better. Maybe enough? Beating Colorado could be tough, but it is doable. A win over a #18 ranked opponent (even if they aren't #18 by the time we play them) should get us in. If we lose that game, it gets harder.

Thanks for catching that. Yes, 21-10 (10-8) would be the record if they sweep at home this week and split at Oregon. That and one tournament win will be enough to make the NCAA field.

ASU, Oregon, Arizona and Colorado are locks. Stanford, UCLA, and USC are playing for one spot most likely.

Stanford: Utah, Colorado @OSU, @ Oregon
USC: Arizona, ASU, UCLA
UCLA: ASU, Arizona, @USC

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - French Rage - 02-24-2020

(02-23-2020, 10:05 PM)Farm93 Wrote: Getting 3 or 4 wins out of the next 5 or 6 games is a different story, but at least they are in the mix in late February.

So you're telling me there's a chance...

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - Farm93 - 02-24-2020

(02-24-2020, 10:30 AM)French Rage Wrote:
(02-23-2020, 10:05 PM)Farm93 Wrote: Getting 3 or 4 wins out of the next 5 or 6 games is a different story, but at least they are in the mix in late February.

So you're telling me there's a chance...

Technically every Pac-12 team has a chance since every team COULD win the Pac-12 tournament.

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - BostonCard - 02-24-2020

(02-24-2020, 10:26 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:
(02-24-2020, 08:59 AM)Goose Wrote:
(02-24-2020, 08:05 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Stanford is absolutely a bubble team. Somehow KenPom has them #34, but Sagarin has them at #59, one spot above UCLA.

To me, it's really simple. Must sweep Utah and Colorado at home and split in Oregon. That would give them a 6-1 record in last 7 games, something closer to how the team started the season.

Then they probably also must win one Pac-12 Tournament game. That would give them a 5-2 record in their last 7 games, a 9-9 conference record and 21-12 overall, good enough for NCAA resume. I personally don't think they will do this and will not make the NCAA field.

OF, I think your numbers are a bit off. Right now, with the WSU win, Stanford is 18-9(7-7). If they lose only to Oregon, they would be 21-10(10-8). Go 1-1 in the Tournament, they finish 22-11(11-9) winning 7 of the last 9. That is a little better. Maybe enough? Beating Colorado could be tough, but it is doable. A win over a #18 ranked opponent (even if they aren't #18 by the time we play them) should get us in. If we lose that game, it gets harder.

Thanks for catching that. Yes, 21-10 (10-8) would be the record if they sweep at home this week and split at Oregon. That and one tournament win will be enough to make the NCAA field.

ASU, Oregon, Arizona and Colorado are locks. Stanford, UCLA, and USC are playing for one spot most likely.

Stanford: Utah, Colorado @OSU, @ Oregon
USC: Arizona, ASU, UCLA
UCLA: ASU, Arizona, @USC

It is a fiction that there are a certain number of spots allocated to each conference and thus teams within a conference are battling it out amongst themselves. All the bubble teams can play themselves in and they could all play themselves out. Until you are at the point that a head to head game (say in the PAC-12 championship) is what determines whether a team is in or out, what UCLA and USC do matter as much as any other bubble team, and probably matter less than upsets in one bid conferences.

BC

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - French Rage - 02-24-2020

(02-24-2020, 12:25 PM)Farm93 Wrote:
(02-24-2020, 10:30 AM)French Rage Wrote:
(02-23-2020, 10:05 PM)Farm93 Wrote: Getting 3 or 4 wins out of the next 5 or 6 games is a different story, but at least they are in the mix in late February.

So you're telling me there's a chance...
Technically every Pac-12 team has a chance since every team COULD win the Pac-12 tournament.

So you're telling me there's a somewhat reasonable chance...

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - Leftcoast - 02-24-2020

Yeaaah!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - winflop - 02-25-2020

I think they need 4 wins to lock up a spot in the Big Dance. 3 wins puts them on the bubble. Utah and @OSU are must wins, plus at least one game in the conference tournament. Beating Colorado, winning at Oregon, or winning a second tournament game on top of those three would lock it up.

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - OutsiderFan - 02-25-2020

(02-25-2020, 06:12 AM)winflop Wrote: I think they need 4 wins to lock up a spot in the Big Dance. 3 wins puts them on the bubble. Utah and @OSU are must wins, plus at least one game in the conference tournament. Beating Colorado, winning at Oregon, or winning a second tournament game on top of those three would lock it up.

Having only one Top 25 win isn't enough, IMO. Keep in mind, Stanford lost to Colorado, Utah and Oregon State previously, so part of this exercise is beating those teams that beat you the first time. Stanford must beat Colorado or Oregon (again), and beat Utah and Oregon State to get in the NCAA field.

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - French Rage - 02-26-2020

Nothing we haven't hashed out here, but ESPN Bubble Watch lists us with "work to do": https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28577356/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch-updated-look-wildest-bubble-years#Pac12

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - SamuelMcF - 02-26-2020

Oklahoma destroyed NET #21 Texas Tech last night, putting them into the NET top 50. Our drubbing of them looks better.

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - OutsiderFan - 03-01-2020

Given USC and UCLA both won yesterday, Stanford's path to the NCAA tournament got even tougher. It is now a certainty that beating Colorado is an elimination game for Stanford's NCAA tournament hopes.

Shockingly, KenPom has Stanford #35, a spot behind Oklahoma (who Stanford beat handily), and UCLA all the way down at #78 in spite of a now 7-game win streak that right now puts them on top of Pac-12 standings.

RPI hates Stanford (#62) and UCLA (#59) and loves USC (#29).

RE: Knock me over with a feather-Stanford in 1st four out - Goose - 03-01-2020

(03-01-2020, 08:27 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: It is now a certainty that beating Colorado is an elimination game for Stanford's NCAA tournament hopes.

It would certainly simplify things. However, beating Oregon again would probably overcome a loss to Colorado. One might say fat chance, but with this team, nothing is certain. One could always say winning the PAC-12 Tournament would do so for sure. Once again, improbable. Would two wins in the Tournament overcome a Colorado loss? Same total # of wins as Colorado now and one win the the Tournament. Maybe equal or better best win quality.