47 million unemployed says the Fed - Printable Version
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47 million unemployed says the Fed - Mick - 03-30-2020
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html
67 million working in jobs at high risk of layoffs.
Happily, the St. Louis Fed Prez says the job loss should be short-lived. Really? Why?
Boy, I sure will be happy that my infection will be pushed off. I won't be able to eat or pay the rent. but WTF? At least we'll save a few hundred thousand lives of people who were going to die anyways.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - 2006alum - 03-30-2020
I was going to post that this morning abut then concluded it's a kind of click-bait headline. Here's why I'm skeptical:
Quote:There are a couple of important caveats to what Faria-e-Castro calls “back-of-the-envelope” calculations: They don’t account for workers who may drop out of the labor force, thus bringing down the headline unemployment rate, and they do not estimate the impact of recently passed government stimulus, which will extend unemployment benefits and subsidize companies for not cutting staff.
So basically, that's the estimate if our $2 trillion bailout/stimulus/slush-fund hadn't passed. Since it's already been enacted into law, what's the point of this calculation?
Still, I agree with you 100% that most talking heads seem more confident than I am that the jobs will come back quickly.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - burger - 03-30-2020
(03-30-2020, 04:15 PM)Mick Wrote: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html
67 million working in jobs at high risk of layoffs.
Happily, the St. Louis Fed Prez says the job loss should be short-lived. Really? Why?
Boy, I sure will be happy that my infection will be pushed off. I won't be able to eat or pay the rent. but WTF? At least we'll save a few hundred thousand lives of people who were going to die anyways.
In a survey of economists from the Univ. of Chicago last week, there was overwhelming support for the proposition that ending the lockdown early will cause more damage than sustaining the lockdown. Saving the economy vs stopping the disease is a false choice. There is no way to save the economy now. But we can save a lot of lives still. https://www.vox.com/2020/3/29/21198750/chicago-poll-social-distancing-economy
And it's not about "putting off" infections. Shutting things down reduces the total number of infections.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - 82 Card - 03-30-2020
(03-30-2020, 04:15 PM)Mick Wrote: Boy, I sure will be happy that my infection will be pushed off. I won't be able to eat or pay the rent. but WTF? At least we'll save a few hundred thousand lives of people who were going to die anyways.
Is there someone who isn't going to die anyway? I must have missed a great scientific breakthrough.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - magnus - 03-30-2020
(03-30-2020, 05:11 PM)82 Card Wrote: Is there someone who isn't going to die anyway? I must have missed a great scientific breakthrough.
Walt Disney?
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - OutsiderFan - 03-30-2020
The problem is the market for serving dead people is not very lucrative.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - 82lsju - 03-31-2020
Quote:The world’s largest economy will shrink an annualized 34% in the second quarter, compared with an earlier estimate of 24%, economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a report. Unemployment will soar to 15% by mid-year, up from a previous forecast of 9%, they wrote.
https://fortune.com/2020/03/31/goldman-sachs-prediction-gdp-contraction-q2/
their previous forecast was on 20 Mar 2020
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/goldman-sees-an-unprecedented-stop-of-economic-activity-with-2nd-quarter-gdp-contracting-by-24percent.html
![[Image: 106453972-158471963668320200320_goldman_...=630&h=354]](https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106453972-158471963668320200320_goldman_forecast.png?v=1584719850&w=630&h=354)
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - M T - 03-31-2020
Is the 12% predicted growth in Q3, based on the level at the end of Q2? I would expect it should be.
So you can't just add -6 + -24 + 12 + 10 = -8% and be as they intend. That's
100 - 6 = 94%, * 0.76 = 71%, * 1.12 = 80%, * 1.10 = 88%, or down 12% for the year.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - 2006alum - 03-31-2020
I find it pretty strange that they're even pretending they can make these estimates with any degree of accuracy. Goldman revised down its Q2 estimate TEN full percentage points since last week. In that same time, the COVID-19 Task Force has gone from barely acknowledging the possibility of widespread death to now predicting as much as 250,000 lives lost. I mean, I know their business requires they base their future decisions on data, but when the data is so noisy, changes so much day to day, and depends on so many social and biological factors totally outside of the control of economic decisionmakers, I feel like all this does is give people the illusion of predictability.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - 82lsju - 03-31-2020
(03-31-2020, 06:02 PM)M T Wrote: Is the 12% predicted growth in Q3, based on the level at the end of Q2? I would expect it should be.
So you can't just add -6 + -24 + 12 + 10 = -8% and be as they intend. That's
100 - 6 = 94%, * 0.76 = 71%, * 1.12 = 80%, * 1.10 = 88%, or down 12% for the year.
I think the growth rates are relative to the same quarter in the previous year.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - BostonCard - 03-31-2020
(03-31-2020, 06:20 PM)82lsju Wrote: I think the growth rates are relative to the same quarter in the previous year.
Quarterly GDP growth rate is compared to the previous quarter, but the number is reported on annualized basis. So, four consecutive quarters of 2% GDP growth does not mean that GDP is 8% higher after the end of the year; it is 2% higher.
https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-gdp-growth-rate-3306016
I would have to double check, but to look at the final GDP, you have to take the fourth root of each figure:
So, Q4/2019 GDP was $21.73 trillion (on an annualized basis), so:
$21.73*[(0.94)^1/4]*[(0.76)^1/4]*[(1.12)^1/4]*[(1.1)^1/4] = $21.05 trillion, which is a 3.2% drop in GDP from Q4/2019
BC
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - 2006alum - 04-01-2020
Here's a new depressing new estimate:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/hshierholz/status/1245406152793501697?s=20[/tweet]
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - yvonne - 04-01-2020
(03-30-2020, 04:15 PM)Mick Wrote: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html
67 million working in jobs at high risk of layoffs.
Happily, the St. Louis Fed Prez says the job loss should be short-lived. Really? Why?
Boy, I sure will be happy that my infection will be pushed off. I won't be able to eat or pay the rent. but WTF? At least we'll save a few hundred thousand lives of people who were going to die anyways.
You have a Jesuit education?
Santa Clara's Three C's right out the window.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - BostonCard - 04-01-2020
Unemployment report for March will come out on Friday. However, the "index week", where those calculations are made was a couple weeks ago, so while it will be bad, it won't capture the severity of the situation.
BC
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - OutsiderFan - 04-01-2020
The CARES Act is a total abomination.
The FED is now buying assets with the Treasury Department (U.S. tax payers) as its co-signer, without our permission. We get a couple grand and then the pork flies, bailing out terrible industries that deserve to die, creditors who made bad loans, and others deemed too big to fail. Our asset values are crushed and then whatever remaining cash we have is hollowed out by inflation, and we're still on the hook for this debt we didn't authorize.
Everyone should feel a deep sense of betrayal toward our government leaders. They aren't protecting us as much as selling us out.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - Mick - 04-01-2020
(04-01-2020, 11:58 AM)yvonne Wrote:(03-30-2020, 04:15 PM)Mick Wrote: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html
67 million working in jobs at high risk of layoffs.
Happily, the St. Louis Fed Prez says the job loss should be short-lived. Really? Why?
Boy, I sure will be happy that my infection will be pushed off. I won't be able to eat or pay the rent. but WTF? At least we'll save a few hundred thousand lives of people who were going to die anyways.
You have a Jesuit education?
Santa Clara's Three C's right out the window.
Yes, I have a Jesuit education. And given the way that Catholics depend on the presence of the poor and use poverty as stick and lever, my guess is that in the near future, thanks to the millions being thrown out of work, the poor will increase markedly. Bully for the religions, because prayer is all that's left to those poor bastards who don't have paychecks.
I don't know what the three C's are. I know I can't pay my mortgage or buy food with them, unless they stand for cash, coins and currency. Can't buy wipes or sanitizer. Can't pay the water, electric, gas or garbage bills with them. Can't pay for my skyrocketing insurance with them. Ditto clothing or medical bills or the kids' tuition payment. Or maybe you've figured out a way to do so that I just don't see. Because I'd love to tell the three people that I just let go (and the other 100 my firm let go) that we can depend on the good ol' three C's.
Please enlighten me. What are the THREE C's?
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - BostonCard - 04-01-2020
Ironically layoffs and furloughs are hitting healthcare companies:
https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/hospitals-health-systems/hospitals-forced-to-furlough-workers-as-they-lose-money-from-low-patient
Basically, hospitals and practices are losing a lot of revenue from postponed elective procedures and patients avoiding healthcare to avoid coronavirus.
Of course, it seems like healthcare resources will need to be redeployed to hot spots. A bunch of states have started recognizing out of state licensing and have called up retired physicians.
BC
(04-01-2020, 01:43 PM)Mick Wrote: I don't know what the three C's are. I know I can't pay my mortgage or buy food with them, unless they stand for cash, coins and currency. Can't buy wipes or sanitizer. Can't pay the water, electric, gas or garbage bills with them. Can't pay for my skyrocketing insurance with them. Ditto clothing or medical bills or the kids' tuition payment. Or maybe you've figured out a way to do so that I just don't see. Because I'd love to tell the three people that I just let go (and the other 100 my firm let go) that we can depend on the good ol' three C's.
Please enlighten me. What are the THREE C's?
Maybe she's referring to these?
https://www.scu.edu/illuminate/thought-leaders/thomas-plante/santa-claras-3-cs-mattera-lot.html
Ironically, I found them on your alma mater's website.
BC
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - yvonne - 04-01-2020
(04-01-2020, 01:43 PM)Mick Wrote:(04-01-2020, 11:58 AM)yvonne Wrote:(03-30-2020, 04:15 PM)Mick Wrote: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html
67 million working in jobs at high risk of layoffs.
Happily, the St. Louis Fed Prez says the job loss should be short-lived. Really? Why?
Boy, I sure will be happy that my infection will be pushed off. I won't be able to eat or pay the rent. but WTF? At least we'll save a few hundred thousand lives of people who were going to die anyways.
You have a Jesuit education?
Santa Clara's Three C's right out the window.
Yes, I have a Jesuit education. And given the way that Catholics depend on the presence of the poor and use poverty as stick and lever, my guess is that in the near future, thanks to the millions being thrown out of work, the poor will increase markedly. Bully for the religions, because prayer is all that's left to those poor bastards who don't have paychecks.
I don't know what the three C's are. I know I can't pay my mortgage or buy food with them, unless they stand for cash, coins and currency. Can't buy wipes or sanitizer. Can't pay the water, electric, gas or garbage bills with them. Can't pay for my skyrocketing insurance with them. Ditto clothing or medical bills or the kids' tuition payment. Or maybe you've figured out a way to do so that I just don't see. Because I'd love to tell the three people that I just let go (and the other 100 my firm let go) that we can depend on the good ol' three C's.
Please enlighten me. What are the THREE C's?
https://www.scu.edu/illuminate/thought-leaders/thomas-plante/santa-claras-3-cs-mattera-lot.html
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - Mick - 04-01-2020
(04-01-2020, 03:22 PM)yvonne Wrote:(04-01-2020, 01:43 PM)Mick Wrote:(04-01-2020, 11:58 AM)yvonne Wrote:(03-30-2020, 04:15 PM)Mick Wrote: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html
67 million working in jobs at high risk of layoffs.
Happily, the St. Louis Fed Prez says the job loss should be short-lived. Really? Why?
Boy, I sure will be happy that my infection will be pushed off. I won't be able to eat or pay the rent. but WTF? At least we'll save a few hundred thousand lives of people who were going to die anyways.
You have a Jesuit education?
Santa Clara's Three C's right out the window.
Yes, I have a Jesuit education. And given the way that Catholics depend on the presence of the poor and use poverty as stick and lever, my guess is that in the near future, thanks to the millions being thrown out of work, the poor will increase markedly. Bully for the religions, because prayer is all that's left to those poor bastards who don't have paychecks.
I don't know what the three C's are. I know I can't pay my mortgage or buy food with them, unless they stand for cash, coins and currency. Can't buy wipes or sanitizer. Can't pay the water, electric, gas or garbage bills with them. Can't pay for my skyrocketing insurance with them. Ditto clothing or medical bills or the kids' tuition payment. Or maybe you've figured out a way to do so that I just don't see. Because I'd love to tell the three people that I just let go (and the other 100 my firm let go) that we can depend on the good ol' three C's.
Please enlighten me. What are the THREE C's?
https://www.scu.edu/illuminate/thought-leaders/thomas-plante/santa-claras-3-cs-mattera-lot.html
Interesting. The last sentence gives the lie to it, don't you think?
I didn't see it on http://www.jesuiteducated.net/ or https://www.ajcunet.edu/ or any of the Loyola's (https://www.luc.edu/ic/about.shtml) or Regis (https://www.regis.edu/About-Regis-University/JesuitEducated/Key-Jesuit-Values.aspx). Ironically, with Georgetown, it is a "Just Employment Policy" although clearly in a different context: https://www.wearegage.org/georgetown-values
Didn't find it on any other Jesuit college site. Neither of my sons had heard of it, they both had Jesuit high school educations (although my young French speaking son thought it meant "Cafe, clope et caca" or coffee, cigarettes and shit. Apparently that's the common morning saying in France). And it must have arisen after my Stone Age education ended at SCU in 1986. So it's a recent Santa Clara thing and not a Jesuit thing.
Anyway, I understand the sentiment. I appreciate competence, I think everyone does. I appreciate a conscience. And I believe in balanced compassion. I fully believe and subscribe to the (actual) broad Jesuit value "a person for others." I want people to be better off than me. I want my sons' generation to be better off than mine. And I suppose I've always known that's a pipe dream. Our society just isn't built to prepare for the next generation. The 1970s "Me" generation never really stopped.
I want there to be a next generation that is successful and not impoverished. And I'm willing, even eager to sacrifice to do it. I'm old, I'm diabetic, I have heart failure and hypertension. I touch every single box that the coronavirus looooves. I figure I'll just explode when it inevitably takes me down. And I'm more than fine with that, if it meant that we don't permanently ruin the economy so we can leave a decent world for future generations. To me, that's the most conscientious, compassionate thing a society can do.
On the other hand, if I was a selfish, narcissistic prick that only cared about myself and literally thought the world ended with my death, I'd say screw the next generation and implement policies that are sure to ruin the country, but gives me a little extra time.
Like we're doing now.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - 2006alum - 04-01-2020
(04-01-2020, 04:26 PM)Mick Wrote: I want there to be a next generation that is successful and not impoverished. And I'm willing, even eager to sacrifice to do it. I'm old, I'm diabetic, I have heart failure and hypertension. I touch every single box that the coronavirus looooves. I figure I'll just explode when it inevitably takes me down. And I'm more than fine with that, if it meant that we don't permanently ruin the economy so we can leave a decent world for future generations. To me, that's the most conscientious, compassionate thing a society can do.
On the other hand, if I was a selfish, narcissistic prick that only cared about myself and literally thought the world ended with my death, I'd say screw the next generation and implement policies that are sure to ruin the country, but gives me a little extra time.
Like we're doing now.
This is a false dichotomy. If we did nothing to slow the virus, our healthcare system would be completely overrun, and with it, our economy, but with no easy path back because we'd have no healthcare system. If every hospital in the country is overrun, what do your sons do when their wives become pregnant? What if one of them develops appendicitis? Or falls off their bike and lacerates a kidney? Are you comfortable waiting two years to see a doctor to check in on your diabetes, hypertension, and heart disease? Do you have a two-year supply of insulin?
"The cure can't be worse than the disease" presupposes some kind of 1:1 ratio of tradeoff between health and economic wellbeing, but the two are tied together. Already, our healthcare system is starting to creak:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/eugenegu/status/1245404476044767232?s=20[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/yangnyin/status/1245422569542397952?s=20[/tweet]
Unless we tell every person who develops moderate COVID-19 symptoms to take 20 ambien and see us in the next life, sacrificing granny is NOT an effective strategy for the rest of us, either.