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Jeff Smith - Phogge - 04-09-2020

Santa Clara Executive Officer says it’s unlikely for any games to take place in his county until Thanksgiving.

RE: Jeff Smith - stupac2 - 04-09-2020

(04-09-2020, 07:58 AM)Phogge Wrote:  Santa Clara Executive Officer says it’s unlikely for any games to take place in his county until Thanksgiving.

Does anyone think otherwise? I understand that hope spring eternal, but I have a really hard time believing we're going to see sports until there's a vaccine widely available and we know it's effective. I'd be shocked if any 2020-2021 college sports happened (the college model is already ethically fraught, adding this is too much), and while I'm sure the pro leagues will try, they'd need to find a government willing to let them, and it's entirely possible that the inevitable positive test will send the whole thing crashing down.

This shit is just too contagious and too deadly.

RE: Jeff Smith - 82lsju - 04-09-2020

Quote:“Fans wanting to attend a 49ers game or any other sporting event in Santa Clara County could be wanting until late November, if not later.

That was the message Santa Clara County Executive Officer Jeff Smith delivered to the Board of Supervisors during a discussion Tuesday about when strict shelter-in-place orders might be relaxed. The orders, which were initially issued in mid-March, are intended to slow the spread of COVID-19.”


https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/08/coronavirus-top-official-says-sports-unlikely-before-thanksgiving-in-santa-clara-county/

RE: Jeff Smith - Papa John - 04-09-2020

Let's see if MLB can make it work this summer. And heck, PGA and LPGA, too, for that matter. I have my serious doubts about college sports in the fall, but at some point the professional leagues are going to incrementally ramp things up, probably with all teams/players in a singular location with no fans, repeated testing, contact tracing and isolation. The contact sports may have to wait until there's a vaccine, but maybe by summer we'll have a treatment that can mitigate the symptoms so that those infected don't overwhelm the health system.

Santa Clara County (and Santa Barbara County, where I live) aside, that would be a best-case scenario for me.

RE: Jeff Smith - Phogge - 04-09-2020

If the college season is a bust across the board I can't see paying coaches for long. This would probably result in wholesale changes and perhaps deemphasis for a lot of schools. People would have to find work elsewhere. There would be no college seniors to evaluate so recruiting might have to be based on Summer '21 camps. How's that for a curveball on Admissions at Stanford?

RE: Jeff Smith - 82lsju - 04-09-2020

Quote:'We’re All Effed. There’s No Other Way to Look at This, Is There?'

Administrators and insiders weigh in as the coronavirus threatens the college football season—and explain why the entire NCAA system could hang in the balance.

https://www.si.com/college/2020/04/08/college-football-future-2020-ncaa-coronavirus

RE: Jeff Smith - donkey687 - 04-09-2020

(04-09-2020, 07:58 AM)Phogge Wrote:  Santa Clara Executive Officer says it’s unlikely for any games to take place in his county until Thanksgiving.

This guy is pretty prescient to know that the situation won't be safe in October but will be post Thanksgiving. I wonder if he has any stock tips for us given his ability to predict the future. No one knows what the situation is going to be 30 days out much less 8 months out. For example, the data heads projections of deaths in the U.S. in the last week have been cut dramatically.  I imagine the people of Wuhan two months ago didn't have visibility on when quarantine could end and now it is over.  The COVID situation in the US is so fluid and changing so rapidly that I don't take any credence on long term projections.  Football could happen or it may not, and we will have a much better outlook come August 1. When the COVID cases are down to a trickle and deaths nearing zero as most models project in July, I don't see the country having patience for keeping everything shut down.

RE: Jeff Smith - Phogge - 04-09-2020

Of course nobody knows. But it's good to understand the mindset of our public officials. I'm finding I don't miss sports as much as I thought I would. But it helps being in a spot where I can walk to hundreds of miles of NPS trails.

RE: Jeff Smith - chrisk - 04-09-2020

(04-09-2020, 03:33 PM)donkey687 Wrote:  
(04-09-2020, 07:58 AM)Phogge Wrote:  Santa Clara Executive Officer says it’s unlikely for any games to take place in his county until Thanksgiving.

This guy is pretty prescient to know that the situation won't be safe in October but will be post Thanksgiving. I wonder if he has any stock tips for us given his ability to predict the future. No one knows what the situation is going to be 30 days out much less 8 months out. For example, the data heads projections of deaths in the U.S. in the last week have been cut dramatically.  I imagine the people of Wuhan two months ago didn't have visibility on when quarantine could end and now it is over.  The COVID situation in the US is so fluid and changing so rapidly that I don't take any credence on long term projections.  Football could happen or it may not, and we will have a much better outlook come August 1. When the COVID cases are down to a trickle and deaths nearing zero as most models project in July, I don't see the country having patience for keeping everything shut down.

There is a big difference between maintaining the current status quo and playing sports events before crowds at Levi’s, SAP Center, or Stanford Stadium.

I heard a TV station in Columbus Ohio today talking up reopening the schools on May 1 and playing spring sports, as if it were a realistic possibility. They think they are doing well (they are compared to northern neighbor Michigan).

RE: Jeff Smith - Mick - 04-09-2020

I just received my first invitation to a live event after Labor Day.  Interesting.  No intention to attend.

RE: Jeff Smith - donkey687 - 04-10-2020

So if we want to speculate, here is a less than zero scenario that could play out: The NCAA and 49 states say Play FootBall this fall, but Newsom/CA or Santa Clara government or Stanford administration say "Not in my State/County/University".  The Pac 12 could become the Pac 8 next season. The Pac 8 teams would have to pick up 1-2 more non-conference games but there would be a lot opponents available (i.e. Notre Dame with two holes in their schedule, BYU, william & Mary etc).  The NCAA would probably grant immediate transfer eligibility to all the CA student athletes. That would be a nightmare scenario on many fronts for Stanford, Cal, UCLA and NFL.  I would imagine that USC would set-up an extension campus in AZ or NV and keep on playing, but the state schools wouldn't be allowed to and Stanford would take the high road and not play and lose its entire roster.  While this scenario isn't likely, I definitely think this is possible as I just don't see any state out of the West Coast continuing a shutdown this fall and saying no to football if the projections play out with respect to COVID numbers being on the very back side of the curve.

RE: Jeff Smith - Mick - 04-10-2020

(04-10-2020, 06:54 AM)donkey687 Wrote:  So if we want to speculate, here is a less than zero scenario that could play out: The NCAA and 49 states say Play FootBall this fall, but Newsom/CA or Santa Clara government or Stanford administration say "Not in my State/County/University".  The Pac 12 could become the Pac 8 next season. The Pac 8 teams would have to pick up 1-2 more non-conference games but there would be a lot opponents available (i.e. Notre Dame with two holes in their schedule, BYU, william & Mary etc).  The NCAA would probably grant immediate transfer eligibility to all the CA student athletes. That would be a nightmare scenario on many fronts for Stanford, Cal, UCLA and NFL.  I would imagine that USC would set-up an extension campus in AZ or NV and keep on playing, but the state schools wouldn't be allowed to and Stanford would take the high road and not play and lose its entire roster.  While this scenario isn't likely, I definitely think this is possible as I just don't see any state out of the West Coast continuing a shutdown this fall and saying no to football if the projections play out with respect to COVID numbers being on the very back side of the curve.

We have a national firm with offices in a dozen states.  When it comes to returning to the offices, our CEO has said that we will follow the timing guidelines of the CDC and the state/regional authority whichever is later.

RE: Jeff Smith - BostonCard - 04-10-2020

Our company is providing a benefit to allow all employees to get ergonomic furniture for home.  That should tell you how long they expect this to last.

BC

RE: Jeff Smith - Papa John - 04-10-2020

(04-10-2020, 06:54 AM)donkey687 Wrote:  So if we want to speculate, here is a less than zero scenario that could play out: The NCAA and 49 states say Play FootBall this fall, but Newsom/CA or Santa Clara government or Stanford administration say "Not in my State/County/University".  The Pac 12 could become the Pac 8 next season. <snip>

I would say that scenario is "more like one in a million." But less than zero works just as well.

RE: Jeff Smith - winflop - 04-10-2020

(04-09-2020, 07:58 AM)Phogge Wrote:  Santa Clara Executive Officer says it’s unlikely for any games to take place in his county until Thanksgiving.

This is just irresponsible to say. We have no idea what things are going to look like in ONE month, much less SEVEN months.

RE: Jeff Smith - Mick - 04-12-2020

(04-10-2020, 09:42 PM)winflop Wrote:  
(04-09-2020, 07:58 AM)Phogge Wrote:  Santa Clara Executive Officer says it’s unlikely for any games to take place in his county until Thanksgiving.

This is just irresponsible to say. We have no idea what things are going to look like in ONE month, much less SEVEN months.

I agree with you.  But public figures tend to be extremely risk averse, and couch their comments as he did ("unlikely" is not the same as "will not.")  That way, they seem like public safety is their foremost concern -- as it should be.

Incidentally, we had a public forum in our 1,200 person/15 office firm hosted by the CEO.  The first question was "When will we return to our offices?"  He replied (paraphrased) "When the CDC says we can, and when the Governors and Mayors of the respective states and localities say we can -- whichever is later."

RE: Jeff Smith - needle - 04-12-2020

My wildly speculative guess is that there will be a 10-game CFB FBS season that starts no sooner than Oct. 31. 

I think the season might be played in "halves," with the first half running through November and the second half after the new year (and able to be postponed if necessary).

I predict restrictions on fans is what will vary from conference-to-conference and/or state-to-state.

RE: Jeff Smith - PVTree - 04-12-2020

I can see where only conference games are played in both football and basketball.

RE: Jeff Smith - donkey687 - 04-13-2020

(04-12-2020, 02:32 PM)needle Wrote:  My wildly speculative guess is that there will be a 10-game CFB FBS season that starts no sooner than Oct. 31. 

I think the season might be played in "halves," with the first half running through November and the second half after the new year (and able to be postponed if necessary).

I predict restrictions on fans is what will vary from conference-to-conference and/or state-to-state.
I think September and October are less likely to have COVID risk than November December.  More likely that the second wave gets roaring as weather cools and typical flu season.  If you look at the per capita numbers per country, it is very clear that hot weather climes are much less impacted and it doesn't spread as rampantly.

RE: Jeff Smith - BostonCard - 04-13-2020

(04-13-2020, 08:43 AM)donkey687 Wrote:  
(04-12-2020, 02:32 PM)needle Wrote:  My wildly speculative guess is that there will be a 10-game CFB FBS season that starts no sooner than Oct. 31. 

I think the season might be played in "halves," with the first half running through November and the second half after the new year (and able to be postponed if necessary).

I predict restrictions on fans is what will vary from conference-to-conference and/or state-to-state.
I think September and October are less likely to have COVID risk than November December.  More likely that the second wave gets roaring as weather cools and typical flu season.  If you look at the per capita numbers per country, it is very clear that hot weather climes are much less impacted and it doesn't spread as rampantly.

I don't think it is clear at all.  Spain (3.6/1000) and Italy (2.6/1000) have higher per capita infection rates than colder countries such as Germany (1.5/1000) or the UK (1.3/1000). And Australia (0.2/1000) and New Zealand (0.3/1000) both in the Southern Hemisphere, have more reported cases than Russia (0.1/1000).  The US (1.7/1000) has more per capita cases than Canada (0.7/1000) or Mexico (0.04/1000).  If there is a temperature gradation, it is really hard to see.

(reference: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

BC