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How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - Mick - 04-09-2020
Another 6.6 million filed initial unemployment claims, for a total of 16,780,000 in the last three weeks. And last week's misery was revised upwards by 219k initial unemployment claims. Here’s the Fed’s numbers:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA
The Chairman of the Fed says the American economy is deteriorating with “alarming speed.” Really. How surprised we all are.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fed-chair-powell-says-us-economy-deteriorating-with-alarming-speed/ar-BB12o0Ak
Similarly, former 11-year NYT reporter Alex Berenson thinks we’re going about it all wrong, that we’re wreaking too much economic devastation. Quelle surprise. He says the models are all wrong. Oh.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ex-nyt-reporter-challenging-the-coronavirus-narrative
Just in case you were curious, about 1,000 Americans have been thrown out of work for every COVID-19 death. More than 1,000 families devastated so a diabetic, heart failure, hypertense old person like me could live a few extra years. And 44% of New Yorkers currently fear eviction and don't know how they're going to pay their rent. Gosh. That's surprising.
https://www.sfgate.com/opinion/article/A-massive-wave-of-evictions-is-coming-Temporary-15186836.php
Yes, there's going to be financial devastation. Here's an early signal: the Fed is seizing control of the entire American bond market. It'll make it easier to print money to get to the hyperinflation that's coming. Sure will make it easier for people to pay their rent with inflated dollars.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-seizing-control-entire-u-144633849.html
The Fed’s intervention is widening the gap between the haves and the have-nots. Trump's little gift to the rich paying even more dividends! The great part is that the half of America that is distressed will come after the rich with a vengeance. Good thing they don't have guns. Oh wait...they do.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/the-feds-intervention-is-widening-the-gap-between-market-haves-and-have-nots/
We may be financially devastated, but at least we're all mentally strong Americans. Or, uh, maybe not. The pandemic is taking its toll on America’s mental health:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-pandemic-takes-toll-on-mental-health-11586433603
So. It's time to stop. Time to go back to work. Implement every safety precaution we possibly can, sequester the truly vulnerable, implement drug trials when and where possible, use old drugs for new uses, bring the new vaccine to market. In short, everything we're already doing. But make sure that we have a country that is not devastated, a country where people are employed and productive and at least satisfied; instead of poor and unemployed and scared and bored and resentful and angry. Humans don't do well under that much stress. And yes, I'm fully aware that I'm advocating a policy that will cause many more people like me to die. Bummer of a birthmark, Hal.
Frankly, I'm a little surprised that the rich and upper middle class folks who populate this board don't understand that sacrifice must be made. The Greatest Generation understood it. The last three don't, not at all. It's fiction, but the captain of this ship understood it. A mast breaks in a squall, taking a sailor with it. The ship starts to capsize, and will be doomed if the captain doesn't make the difficult decision to cut the broken mast and his sailor loose, or it will pull the rest of the boat under. Which he does, losing one life to save 187 lives.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNB0LDIeIwM&t=93s
China understands it. When the Chinese stopped publishing realistic statistics, I realized that they decided to go the "screw it" route. They implemented what public safety measures they could, they made the vulnerable stay in place, then decided to make sure people stayed employed and that they didn't ruin their economy. I have no doubt that their official death toll is 1/10th of what it actually is, and could ultimately be higher. Who would know? So it doesn't surprise me that China encouraged international travel and sat on the official results. Not incidentally, they will emerge from this crisis as the unquestioned global leader, and America will be a distant...well, I hope second, but who knows? And make no mistake, we didn't stall the economy...we stopped it in its tracks. And it won't come back.
Obviously it's time to stop the current disastrous policy, but you proponents of that policy can rest easy. It won't happen here. The people on this board who advocate the destruction of America's economy to save a small percentage of the 330 million have the resources to care for themselves personally, and don't have to care about the tens of millions whose lives are now ruined or the country that will be financially devastated.
The good part is that the economy will be so devastated that chaos will reign, and while Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren won't be elected, their policies will be implemented. Soak the rich is right around the corner. Probably not a French Revolution or October Revolution for those who desperately deserve it, but who knows?
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - 2006alum - 04-09-2020
Speaking for myself, I'm no more than solidly middle class, and I have had at least a dozen close friends and family members furloughed, laid off, or with a shuttered small business. Believe me, I appreciate the economic cost of extreme social distancing.
But I also never stopped "getting back to work" - as long as I can work from home (which fortunately, for at least the next few months, I can), I will. IMHO, all the economists calling this a "supply side shock" are missing that many of us have no intention of returning to normal, regardless of what our government tells us to do.
I have no intention of getting on an airplane for a non-necessary purpose, going to Disneyland, eating at a crowded restaurant, going to a sports event, or seeing a live concert -- any time soon. If that doesn't make me part of the Greatest Generation, I'm content to accept my share of ignominy. But I've now had two friends in their late 30s and early 40s who ended up with 2-3 week hospitalizations due to COVID-19, and they had no underlying co-morbidities. Sorry, but catching Trolls in theaters ain't worth it.
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - teejers1 - 04-09-2020
(04-09-2020, 08:58 PM)Mick Wrote: Another 6.6 million filed initial unemployment claims, for a total of 16,780,000 in the last three weeks. And last week's misery was revised upwards by 219k initial unemployment claims. Here’s the Fed’s numbers:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA
The Chairman of the Fed says the American economy is deteriorating with “alarming speed.” Really. How surprised we all are.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fed-chair-powell-says-us-economy-deteriorating-with-alarming-speed/ar-BB12o0Ak
Similarly, former 11-year NYT reporter Alex Berenson thinks we’re going about it all wrong, that we’re wreaking too much economic devastation. Quelle surprise. He says the models are all wrong. Oh.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ex-nyt-reporter-challenging-the-coronavirus-narrative
Just in case you were curious, about 1,000 Americans have been thrown out of work for every COVID-19 death. More than 1,000 families devastated so a diabetic, heart failure, hypertense old person like me could live a few extra years. And 44% of New Yorkers currently fear eviction and don't know how they're going to pay their rent. Gosh. That's surprising.
https://www.sfgate.com/opinion/article/A-massive-wave-of-evictions-is-coming-Temporary-15186836.php
Yes, there's going to be financial devastation. Here's an early signal: the Fed is seizing control of the entire American bond market. It'll make it easier to print money to get to the hyperinflation that's coming. Sure will make it easier for people to pay their rent with inflated dollars.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-seizing-control-entire-u-144633849.html
The Fed’s intervention is widening the gap between the haves and the have-nots. Trump's little gift to the rich paying even more dividends! The great part is that the half of America that is distressed will come after the rich with a vengeance. Good thing they don't have guns. Oh wait...they do.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/the-feds-intervention-is-widening-the-gap-between-market-haves-and-have-nots/
We may be financially devastated, but at least we're all mentally strong Americans. Or, uh, maybe not. The pandemic is taking its toll on America’s mental health:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-pandemic-takes-toll-on-mental-health-11586433603
So. It's time to stop. Time to go back to work. Implement every safety precaution we possibly can, sequester the truly vulnerable, implement drug trials when and where possible, use old drugs for new uses, bring the new vaccine to market. In short, everything we're already doing. But make sure that we have a country that is not devastated, a country where people are employed and productive and at least satisfied; instead of poor and unemployed and scared and bored and resentful and angry. Humans don't do well under that much stress. And yes, I'm fully aware that I'm advocating a policy that will cause many more people like me to die. Bummer of a birthmark, Hal.
Frankly, I'm a little surprised that the rich and upper middle class folks who populate this board don't understand that sacrifice must be made. The Greatest Generation understood it. The last three don't, not at all. It's fiction, but the captain of this ship understood it. A mast breaks in a squall, taking a sailor with it. The ship starts to capsize, and will be doomed if the captain doesn't make the difficult decision to cut the broken mast and his sailor loose, or it will pull the rest of the boat under. Which he does, losing one life to save 187 lives.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNB0LDIeIwM&t=93s
China understands it. When the Chinese stopped publishing realistic statistics, I realized that they decided to go the "screw it" route. They implemented what public safety measures they could, they made the vulnerable stay in place, then decided to make sure people stayed employed and that they didn't ruin their economy. I have no doubt that their official death toll is 1/10th of what it actually is, and could ultimately be higher. Who would know? So it doesn't surprise me that China encouraged international travel and sat on the official results. Not incidentally, they will emerge from this crisis as the unquestioned global leader, and America will be a distant...well, I hope second, but who knows? And make no mistake, we didn't stall the economy...we stopped it in its tracks. And it won't come back.
Obviously it's time to stop the current disastrous policy, but you proponents of that policy can rest easy. It won't happen here. The people on this board who advocate the destruction of America's economy to save a small percentage of the 330 million have the resources to care for themselves personally, and don't have to care about the tens of millions whose lives are now ruined or the country that will be financially devastated.
The good part is that the economy will be so devastated that chaos will reign, and while Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren won't be elected, their policies will be implemented. Soak the rich is right around the corner. Probably not a French Revolution or October Revolution for those who desperately deserve it, but who knows?
It's all about the "return" phase. I'd prefer it start sooner than most here do - mainly because I believe that 2006Alum will not be alone. Far from it. The majority will still self-regulate.
BTW, in "ideal world," don't we "want" as many COVID infections as possible to the population . . . so long as hospitals are not overrun and are able to treat those most in need? Now obviously, the higher at-risk groups will have to take extra precautions, which will limit deaths in and of itself.
But tell me what's wrong in theory about wanting as much of the population as possible to develop some kind of immunity? [I get that gauging is an impossible task and health care could be overrun if we're not very careful]. But I'm just talking theory: don't we want as many of us to contract and survive COVID 19 as is reasonably possible?
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - magnus - 04-09-2020
(04-09-2020, 09:26 PM)teejers1 Wrote: But tell me what's wrong in theory about wanting as much of the population as possible to develop some kind of immunity? [I get that gauging is an impossible task and health care could be overrun if we're not very careful]. But I'm just talking theory: don't we want as many of us to contract and survive COVID 19 as is reasonably possible?Herd immunity was the original goal of the UK and is one of the ways we can get out of this potentially drawn out restrictive movement. I think the problem with trying to reach herd immunity is that too many people will die (mostly old, but also middle age and young). The death rate is about 1%, or if maybe 0.5% in the USA (if you start including all the asymptomatic). If we need to get 60%-70% infected, that's 200M infected, translating to 1M deaths. That would be against America's fiber to allow happen.
(04-09-2020, 09:26 PM)teejers1 Wrote: BTW, in "ideal world," don't we "want" as many COVID infections as possible to the population . . . so long as hospitals are not overrun and are able to treat those most in need? Now obviously, the higher at-risk groups will have to take extra precautions, which will limit deaths in and of itself.In an ideal world, we'd want to end this ASAP which would mean either a vaccine or some other influence that would tame this virus.
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - akiddoc - 04-09-2020
Unfortunately, Coronaviruses almost never confer longterm immunity. It tends to wear off in a year or two. There is no reason to believe that this Coronavirus is different than the rest. Without a good vaccine it's likely to continue to wreak havoc for a long time. Just depends how many deaths you want to accept. If we go back to business as usual the proportion of the population 60 and up will definitely go down. It kills about 20 times as many as Influenza. We accept the influenza death rate. Will we accept the Coronavirus death rate? I don't know the answer.
One thing I do know is that we are going to have some much better tools for combating the spread in the coming months. 10 minute rapid antigen detection and serum titers to check for current immunity should help quite a bit.
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - chrisk - 04-09-2020
The US can beef up its social safety nets to help ride this out. In the first years of the Great Depression, there was virtually no safety net and no fiscal injections. The dislocations will not be born equally. In the working class and middle class, many will be worse off and some will be better off. In the top 5-10%, people who have set aside the suggested rainy day funds can emerge relatively intact. Many will contribute their time and resources to worthwhile causes, but there will be some of the wealthy who will be stingy, while benefiting from historically low tax rates.
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - dabigv13 - 04-09-2020
(04-09-2020, 09:52 PM)akiddoc Wrote: Unfortunately, Coronaviruses almost never confer longterm immunity. It tends to wear off in a year or two. There is no reason to believe that this Coronavirus is different than the rest. Without a good vaccine it's likely to continue to wreak havoc for a long time. Just depends how many deaths you want to accept. If we go back to business as usual the proportion of the population 60 and up will definitely go down. It kills about 20 times as many as Influenza. We accept the influenza death rate. Will we accept the Coronavirus death rate? I don't know the answer.
One thing I do know is that we are going to have some much better tools for combating the spread in the coming months. 10 minute rapid antigen detection and serum titers to check for current immunity should help quite a bit.
Also the virus will likely mutate over time. We may need to get new covid vaccine on a yearly basis or semi yearly, like the flu vaccine.
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - fullmetal - 04-09-2020
(04-09-2020, 10:47 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Also the virus will likely mutate over time. We may need to get new covid vaccine on a yearly basis or semi yearly, like the flu vaccine.
This one's an unsegmented RNA virus, so the mutations are more of a drift, very small mutations compared to the flu.
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - Snorlax94 - 04-09-2020
There are two kinds of ways of thinking about when to lift the lockdown:
1) People who hate the lockdown, and want to lift it as soon as possible, as soon as the tools to contain it are in place, including enough ventilators, enough testing, enough contact tracing, enough ppe.
2) People who hate the lockdown, and want to choose an arbitrary date of when to lift it, regardless of whether there are enough ventilators, enough PPE, enough contact tracing, enough quarantining, enough testing.
I think people in category 1) are concerned that lifting the lockdown without the means to contain it will actually hurt the economy more, and along the way, kill a lot of Americans.
When the president wants to set an arbitrary date on the lockdown, to me it’s like a chef complaining that the customers aren’t leaving by the predetermined time he demands they leave, even though he is the one who hasn’t delivered anything.
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - dabigv13 - 04-09-2020
I think I recall one of the UW virologists Trevor Bedford had a thread that suggested slow genetic drift. Like perhaps substantial over a period of perhaps 4 years. But since immunity may wane over time, a booster may be necessary, and in that scenario could require updates over time as well. Will be very interesting to see what future holds as we learn more about this virus and our immune response to it.
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - akiddoc - 04-09-2020
https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/29018209/poll-fans-attend-games-vaccine
Things are not going back to "normal" for a long time.
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - BostonCard - 04-10-2020
(04-09-2020, 08:58 PM)Mick Wrote: China understands it. When the Chinese stopped publishing realistic statistics, I realized that they decided to go the "screw it" route. They implemented what public safety measures they could, they made the vulnerable stay in place, then decided to make sure people stayed employed and that they didn't ruin their economy. I have no doubt that their official death toll is 1/10th of what it actually is, and could ultimately be higher. Who would know? So it doesn't surprise me that China encouraged international travel and sat on the official results. Not incidentally, they will emerge from this crisis as the unquestioned global leader, and America will be a distant...well, I hope second, but who knows? And make no mistake, we didn't stall the economy...we stopped it in its tracks. And it won't come back.
I wouldn't trust Chinese statistics further than I could throw them. But, they are not going to dismantle a fully functional hospitals built for Covid-19 unless they believed they weren't going to need it.
BC
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - magnus - 04-10-2020
(04-09-2020, 11:33 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: I think I recall one of the UW virologists Trevor Bedford had a thread that suggested slow genetic drift. Like perhaps substantial over a period of perhaps 4 years. But since immunity may wane over time, a booster may be necessary, and in that scenario could require updates over time as well. Will be very interesting to see what future holds as we learn more about this virus and our immune response to it.Yup, I remember reading that from him
(04-09-2020, 11:36 PM)akiddoc Wrote: https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/29018209/poll-fans-attend-games-vaccineI wonder what sample population they polled. Guessing numbers in SEC country would be much different.
Things are not going back to "normal" for a long time.
(04-09-2020, 11:33 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote: There are two kinds of ways of thinking about when to lift the lockdown:
1) People who hate the lockdown, and want to lift it as soon as possible, as soon as the tools to contain it are in place, including enough ventilators, enough testing, enough contact tracing, enough ppe.
2) People who hate the lockdown, and want to choose an arbitrary date of when to lift it, regardless of whether there are enough ventilators, enough PPE, enough contact tracing, enough quarantining, enough testing.
I don't think ventilators will factor into group #1's thinking. Ventilators just help reduce excess death from the virus. But those in #1 probably don't want to even see the "ideal" number of deaths that the virus would cause. If these other tools can reduce the projected death count to an acceptable number, ventilators will not be an issue.
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - OutsiderFan - 04-10-2020
On the ESPN poll...
The best thing the U. S. Government could possibly do to make Americans comfortable going out again is to implement universal healthcare coverage for all. People aren’t necessarily afraid of getting sick as much as they are of medical bills. We are all rightfully captivated by the human health angle right now, but nobody is talking about the bills all these patients in hospitals for days and weeks are going to incur under our embarrassingly awful health care system.
People who should be taken to a hospital routinely refuse ambulance rides because they can cost more than $5,000. I’ve done this twice in my life, but still have taken two such rides (one with lights and sirens) and I probably have better coverage than 90% of people in this country, including having no deductible on my plan. But even I with great coverage don’t want to overtop my benefits and face bankruptcy due to medical bills. I can only imagine what those who have junk plans feel.
Most of us are willing to go into public if we are given the protections we need. Those are:
1. Mask wearing and distancing regulations
2. Testing regimes that give us more data
3. Health care coverage that ensures we won’t go bankrupt if we get sick
The worst thing that could happen, which I believe will, is we successfully flatten curve, go back to normal, and get hit with a second wave of infections that is worse, without the ability to enact another shutdown. There is a limit to the debt that can be created to prop everything up, and a certain fatalism will grip a large enough percentage of the population willing to roll the dice, that leads to outbreaks that make today’s numbers look like child’s play.
But even with distancing measures, testing, and mask wearing, it’s hard to see how restaurants, theaters, arenas and stadiums can be viable, or working anywhere but from home if you can makes any sense, unless only people who can prove they can’t spread the virus are allowed in. We are a long way from this or a vaccine, but the former is easier than the latter, so we better start working on it, stat.
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - Farm93 - 04-10-2020
Want to start the economy ASAP?
Then a few things need to happen.
#1 - The citizens need to be confident they can do most of their normal things with minimal risk.
Vaccines would be best, but that's 12-24 months out. So N/A.
The next best alternative is massive testing and tracing for the virus and antibodies.
I would not expect CA, WA, NY, NJ, or MI to break their state efforts without detailed plans to test and trace most citizens.
USA economic rebound will not happen if CA, WA, NY NJ and MI are all sitting it out.
#2 - The government would need to really outline which activities are too risky, too likely to cause another outbreak
For example, sporting events, funerals, weddings and church services are already established no-nos.
And yet, those very things are on POTUS45's wish list.
The list goes on and on.
It's not happening. POTUS45's advisers know it's not happening. The game now is to sit here in April and May claiming he WANTED it to happen. That way when unemployment is at 25%, or more, the re-election campaign can claim they wanted to pursue the other path even if they know that other path was never really viable.
All of that noted - I do want to swing this back to Stanford Athletics....
I sincerely doubt there will be any college athletics for the balance of 2020. However, if there was a Stanford Football season. How many of you would attend games?
For me, the home game schedule does not have a single game worth the COVID-19 risk.
I probably would hope to go to Big Game while wearing the PPE one might find in a surgical setting, but if there is even a hint of a re-emergence in November I would skip the event.
For me the other social events key to a recovery are not even on the table until a vaccine is available.
Restaurants - No way
Musical Concerts- Never
Sporting Events - Not gonna happen
Brick and Mortar Sshopping for discretionary items - See Ya in 2022
Will there be some that just trust they are invincible? Sure.
But if even 10-20% of the citizens take my view the economy would be in a recession for several quarters.
I am highly confident more than 10-20% share my risk assessment here.
I am also confident POTUS45's financially oriented advisory group knows this too.
At this point the POTUS45 team members are just "Cheerleading" for something they know won't happen.
That way when the depression level reality hits in Q3 they can claim at political events that they tried to take a different path.
The believers will see the positives the other path would have had like SEC football, NASCAR races and music concerts.
Since it didn't actually happen they will discount the negatives associated with the millions that would have died.
This is much like a group of cheerleaders screaming for the team to score and win while down 3-38 with 3 minutes left in the game.
They might claim they were trying to inspire the team to the bitter end, but at some point the cheers just make them look clueless.
And at that point the fans in the stands really begin to understand that a great coach or a clever QB are a lot better than loud cheerleaders.
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - oldalum - 04-10-2020
good post, Farm93.
In the short term, I think almost all businesses will be able to reopen provided they keep the protective measures that grocery stores are now adopting. People are going to have to wear masks in public. Some sporting events with very limited audience might be ok, if the athletes can be tested with 15 minute results (kind of like the old fingernail check in water polo before the game). I could see going to a soccer match at the Q with about 5-10% of capacity allowed in, and me wearing my mask. At some point, those measures might become optional, and then people who are most concerned (like me) will continue them, and businesses that want my business will keep them, too. All to buy enough time to get effective treatment and vaccine available. And with sufficient testing surveillance to know when virus spread is increasing in a particular area, to tighten up the measures again.
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - OutsiderFan - 04-10-2020
The only real solutions are things the Federal Government is not doing and has shown no will to do.
This article focused on the testing disaster is a virtual microcosm of how f*cked we are across the board:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01068-3
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - stupac2 - 04-10-2020
Ezra Klein has an article about this that I think is enlightening: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment
The general point is that every plan he looked into (which come from entities that span the political spectrum) envisions opening under circumstances that are nearly impossible to imagine. You either need to construct a testing apparatus far beyond what we're currently doing, a surveillance apparatus that's basically unimaginable in America (and possibly not even legal), wait it out for a vaccine, or let hundreds of thousands die. These are... not good options. It seems like the mass testing regime is the most plausible way to open early, but it would take some serious state/federal leadership to get us there. Maybe CA could pull it off without the feds (who as he points out haven't announced a plan of any form), but it would be tough. And the question of compliance is a difficult one.
There just aren't any good options here.
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - burger - 04-10-2020
(04-10-2020, 08:34 AM)oldalum Wrote: good post, Farm93.
In the short term, I think almost all businesses will be able to reopen provided they keep the protective measures that grocery stores are now adopting. People are going to have to wear masks in public. Some sporting events with very limited audience might be ok, if the athletes can be tested with 15 minute results (kind of like the old fingernail check in water polo before the game). I could see going to a soccer match at the Q with about 5-10% of capacity allowed in, and me wearing my mask. At some point, those measures might become optional, and then people who are most concerned (like me) will continue them, and businesses that want my business will keep them, too. All to buy enough time to get effective treatment and vaccine available. And with sufficient testing surveillance to know when virus spread is increasing in a particular area, to tighten up the measures again.
Doesn't that still imply a giant loss of jobs and, essentially, a permanent recession? Half-full restaurants only need half the staff. Quarter-full stadiums provide 1/4 the revenue. Flights at 60% capacity means grounding a lot of planes if it's going to be profitable for the airlines.
I am increasingly certain that there is no solution to the economic hit until we have a vaccine or hit herd-immunity levels of infection. If the ongoing social distancing is mandatory, it essentially puts a cap on how many jobs the economy can create. Scott Gottlieb, Trump's earlier FDA commissioner thinks that 80% of the economy can return if we open up again soon. A 20% hit to the economy is still near great depression levels.
Voluntary social distancing is still going to be a thing, too. As Farm93 pointed out, a lot of people (including my family) will not be doing anything unnecessary in public until there is a vaccine or a cure. Again, even if only 20% of people isolated themselves, we're looking at a depression, at least in a lot of service sectors.
If you are thinking that contact tracing will save us, I'd encourage you to read this article, which probably deserves its own thread: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment
RE: How to emerge from the pandemic and still have a country - cardcrimson - 04-10-2020
As the majority here thinks the Chinese did a great job managing their response to the virus, perhaps we should look to them as to how they have reopened their country. Even Wuhan is easing the restrictions.
Anecdotally, I traded emails with a Chinese college student a month ago, and he commented that pretty much everything was back to normal, though his school was still online (others had reopened on site education). Only more people were wearing masks in public.