Contact tracing - Printable Version
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Contact tracing - BostonCard - 06-09-2020
https://thehill.com/homenews/coronavirus-report/501416-urgency-mounts-for-a-contact-tracing-army
This one is for goose, who will rightfully bemoan the fact that it is now June 2020 and we've known for four months that we were going to need contact tracers, and lots of them, and only now are officials "signaling" increased urgency? This has to be one of the most disappointing "fails" in a long list in our response to the pandemic. Contact tracers are a drop in the bucket in cost compared to shutdowns, there are plenty of candidates that can be hired and trained to do the job, and we've known that we were going to need them since this whole thing started. So what the hell were officials doing this time?
BC
RE: Contact tracing - Mick - 06-09-2020
(06-09-2020, 12:58 PM)BostonCard Wrote: https://thehill.com/homenews/coronavirus-report/501416-urgency-mounts-for-a-contact-tracing-army
This one is for goose, who will rightfully bemoan the fact that it is now June 2020 and we've known for four months that we were going to need contact tracers, and lots of them, and only now are officials "signaling" increased urgency? This has to be one of the most disappointing "fails" in a long list in our response to the pandemic. Contact tracers are a drop in the bucket in cost compared to shutdowns, there are plenty of candidates that can be hired and trained to do the job, and we've known that we were going to need them since this whole thing started. So what the hell were officials doing this time?
BC
Perhaps they were concerned the pool of available applicants was too small...
RE: Contact tracing - fullmetal - 06-10-2020
I have a qualified friend applying to be a contact tracer, and he hasn't heard a peep in over two months. Then again, it's possible that the funding for contact tracing positions is directly or indirectly controlled by officials sympathetic to the executive branch.
RE: Contact tracing - 76lsjumb - 06-10-2020
(06-10-2020, 12:22 AM)fullmetal Wrote: I have a qualified friend applying to be a contact tracer, and he hasn't heard a peep in over two months. Then again, it's possible that the funding for contact tracing positions is directly or indirectly controlled by officials sympathetic to the executive branch.
What's that term that I keep hearing? Oh yes..."unfounded conspiracy theory."
Everybody's got to have one, I guess...
RE: Contact tracing - Goose - 06-10-2020
(06-09-2020, 12:58 PM)BostonCard Wrote: https://thehill.com/homenews/coronavirus-report/501416-urgency-mounts-for-a-contact-tracing-armyThanks BC. This issue should give pause to all of us. While it is certainly reasonable to criticize the Federal response during the start of the outbreak, it can at least be said that there was considerable uncertainty about what the "correct" actions may be. The county health departments have no such excuse. From the day they gave up on containment and resorted to SIP, they full well knew that the day would come soon when they would again be required to contain the disease. Their failure to be ready after four months is simply inexcusable. If they lacked the required resources they should have been screaming that fact to the rafters. That didn't happen, yet they are not ready.
This one is for goose, who will rightfully bemoan the fact that it is now June 2020 and we've known for four months that we were going to need contact tracers, and lots of them, and only now are officials "signaling" increased urgency? This has to be one of the most disappointing "fails" in a long list in our response to the pandemic. Contact tracers are a drop in the bucket in cost compared to shutdowns, there are plenty of candidates that can be hired and trained to do the job, and we've known that we were going to need them since this whole thing started. So what the hell were officials doing this time?
BC
RE: Contact tracing - M T - 06-10-2020
As I said elsewhere, if you want to see L.A. County's plans and status for contact tracing, start at page 57 of May 28 L.A. County's attestation that they should be opening up faster.
"As the number of new cases has grown to over 500 diagnosed each day [They had more than 1600 on May 26. But this section is dated May 11.] DPH has focused its case investigation and contact tracing efforts on those in settings with the highest risk of rapid spread and negative health outcomes. These high-risk settings include, but are not limited to, hospitals, skilled nursing facilities and other health care settings, correctional institutions, and other congregate residential facilities."
I read that as they abandoned any hope of tracking all cases.
"DPH anticipates an ongoing rise in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases that will reach or exceed 2500 cases a day. In anticipation of a rise to this level, DPH projects needing approximately 2500 additional staff to support surge response in contact tracing. "
They use an estimate of 8 close contacts each. Infectious period from 2 days before symptoms to 10 days after.
Hmm.,... Santa Clara County wants to have 1000 to handle 75 cases a day, 40 close contacts each. (My notes indicate that SCC was working to have 500 contact tracers by this week.)
RE: Contact tracing - Goose - 06-10-2020
(06-10-2020, 01:11 PM)M T Wrote: DPH has focused its case investigation and contact tracing efforts on those in settings with the highest risk of rapid spread and negative health outcomes. These high-risk settings include, but are not limited to, hospitals, skilled nursing facilities and other health care settings, correctional institutions, and other congregate residential facilities."
I read that as they abandoned any hope of tracking all cases.
Yes, it would appear that is true. The rationale that this will be "adequate" to keep the average Rt below 1.0 is naturally not presented. It may be that will be so, but I would strongly doubt it. Moreover, they should have at least an idea if it would based on what has happened so far. Since they present no data, I can only assume that even that is not true.
Quote:
"DPH anticipates an ongoing rise in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases that will reach or exceed 2500 cases a day. In anticipation of a rise to this level, DPH projects needing approximately 2500 additional staff to support surge response in contact tracing. "
They use an estimate of 8 close contacts each. Infectious period from 2 days before symptoms to 10 days after.
Hmm.,... Santa Clara County wants to have 1000 to handle 75 cases a day, 40 close contacts each. (My notes indicate that SCC was working to have 500 contact tracers by this week.) SCC has claimed that they were actually keeping up with contact tracing as of 26 May. However, that was probably under a definition of "contacts" that allowed them to keep up. It is quite interesting to note that we know a super-spreader in Korea who left the hospital to attend church services was a major problem in their efforts, and that later a person at a gay night club was a similar problem. Korea is a country of 52 million people far away from here who speak a different language, and yet we know these things about their contact tracing issues. We know absolutely nothing about SCCs tracing successes or failures, or even how many people they quarantined. They are right here, speak our language and have only 2 million people. Why is that?
RE: Contact tracing - Farm93 - 06-10-2020
Sounds like a job for the RoboCall community....
Hello? Hello! Can you hear me? Oh good, hi!
You have been identified as someone that likely was in contact with a person that tested positive for COVID-19.
Please contact your primary care physician today to schedule COVID-19 testing.
Until that testing is complete, or if you are unable to afford testing, please stay in quarantine for 14 days.
Thank You
RE: Contact tracing - Goose - 06-10-2020
(06-10-2020, 03:07 PM)Farm93 Wrote: Sounds like a job for the RoboCall community....Afraid so. I assume you intended it as a joke, but I wouldn't be surprised if that is part of the plan. Assuming that the robo-call isn't hung up on before it is heard, I assume some percentage of the people will actually comply. We can start a pool on what that fraction will be. By the way, even if they test negative, they still have to quarantine for 14 days because they could be pre-symptomatic. The test only matters because if it is positive then there are another set of contacts to trace. It is a "very nice to have", not a necessity.
Hello? Hello! Can you hear me? Oh good, hi!
You have been identified as someone that likely was in contact with a person that tested positive for COVID-19.
Please contact your primary care physician today to schedule COVID-19 testing.
Until that testing is complete, or if you are unable to afford testing, please stay in quarantine for 14 days.
Thank You
RE: Contact tracing - fullmetal - 06-11-2020
(06-10-2020, 10:56 AM)76lsjumb Wrote:(06-10-2020, 12:22 AM)fullmetal Wrote: I have a qualified friend applying to be a contact tracer, and he hasn't heard a peep in over two months. Then again, it's possible that the funding for contact tracing positions is directly or indirectly controlled by officials sympathetic to the executive branch.
What's that term that I keep hearing? Oh yes..."unfounded conspiracy theory."
Everybody's got to have one, I guess...
You would have a point except that my state has had politicians publicly declaring that reopening economy was worth additional deaths of the elderly, never mind the fact that most of the industry in my state are deemed essential and never shut down in the first place.
Anyway, there seem to be bureaucratic delays in setting up the data management system for the new contact tracers, which are being hired for the local public health agency through a contractor, who is being paid through a state labor commission.
RE: Contact tracing - M T - 06-11-2020
"Someone who came in contact with you tested positive or showed symptoms for COVID-19 & recommends you self-isolate/get tested.
More at County Health Office"
Texting is more appropriate today if you want to actually effect an attack on someone.
The above is an example of scams per the FTC.
I'm sure everyone knows that scammers can fake that their call comes from any number they choose. So I'm a little surprised to see this
Quote:FRIDAY, MAY 29: COVID-19 CASE INVESTIGATION AND CONTACT TRACING
Santa Clara County residents who receive a call from the 408 or 916 area code or with the ID “California COVID team” should answer their phones, contact tracing expansion lead Evelyn Ho and county health expert Dr. Sarah Rudman said at today’s Facebook Live briefing. Calls with those identifiers are from health agents providing information on a positive COVID-19 test result or contact with someone who received a positive result.
Rudman said people who tested positive for the coronavirus can expect to be asked how they are doing and whether they need help accessing health care. They also will be questioned about their occupation, places they visited and people they came face-to-face with while contagious. The health agent will inform them it’s imperative to stay home and direct them to resources such as grocery or medication deliveries and rent assistance.
Those exposed to COVID-19 will receive a similar call, with one additional challenge: The health agent is allowed to reveal only minimal information to protect the infected person’s privacy. For example, the person exposed may only learn the date he or she was exposed.
Really? Here in Silicon Valley and they didn't mention anything about distinguishing the real calls from the scam calls?
A related article from Washington state indicates that the (legitimate) callers there will ask for date of birth, but not SSN. I presume they'll ask questions about where you've been (where you work, pray, play, protest, whatever).
RE: Contact tracing - BostonCard - 06-11-2020
(06-11-2020, 01:33 AM)fullmetal Wrote:(06-10-2020, 10:56 AM)76lsjumb Wrote:(06-10-2020, 12:22 AM)fullmetal Wrote: I have a qualified friend applying to be a contact tracer, and he hasn't heard a peep in over two months. Then again, it's possible that the funding for contact tracing positions is directly or indirectly controlled by officials sympathetic to the executive branch.
What's that term that I keep hearing? Oh yes..."unfounded conspiracy theory."
Everybody's got to have one, I guess...
You would have a point except that my state has had politicians publicly declaring that reopening economy was worth additional deaths of the elderly, never mind the fact that most of the industry in my state are deemed essential and never shut down in the first place.
Anyway, there seem to be bureaucratic delays in setting up the data management system for the new contact tracers, which are being hired for the local public health agency through a contractor, who is being paid through a state labor commission.
You would think that the states most intent on reopening would have the most robust contact tracing plans, since robust contact tracing allows you to identify and control outbreaks even while you reopen. The alternative is that you see rapid increase in cases and are forced to shut down.
BC
RE: Contact tracing - Goose - 06-11-2020
Quote:FRIDAY, MAY 29: COVID-19 CASE INVESTIGATION AND CONTACT TRACING
Santa Clara County residents who receive a call from the 408 or 916 area code or with the ID “California COVID team” should answer their phones, contact tracing expansion lead Evelyn Ho and county health expert Dr. Sarah Rudman said at today’s Facebook Live briefing. Calls with those identifiers are from health agents providing information on a positive COVID-19 test result or contact with someone who received a positive result.
Rudman said people who tested positive for the coronavirus can expect to be asked how they are doing and whether they need help accessing health care. They also will be questioned about their occupation, places they visited and people they came face-to-face with while contagious. The health agent will inform them it’s imperative to stay home and direct them to resources such as grocery or medication deliveries and rent assistance.
Those exposed to COVID-19 will receive a similar call, with one additional challenge: The health agent is allowed to reveal only minimal information to protect the infected person’s privacy. For example, the person exposed may only learn the date he or she was exposed.
If there was any doubt remaining, this shows the SCC folks are not up to the task. Putting aside the questions about the telephone call actually reaching the individual who tested positive, the actions are entirely inadequate. First, it must be stated that "By order of the county health officer, you WILL quarantine at home. If you fail to do so, you can be arrested". Without teeth, many people will blow it off. Second, the person is supposed to quarantine at home, not just remain at home. That means no contact with other members of the household. Presumably the rest of the household are close contacts and must also quarantine themselves. They also should be tested if possible. SCC needs to make this happen.
We all know that separate quarantine at home for all family members will be impractical in many if not most cases. Therefore, it will often will degenerate into (at best) the family staying at home but still possibly infecting each other. In that case, the quarantine period has to restart any time a different family member gets the disease. Naturally, SCC may chose to omit these steps, as it appears they have. The consequences will be that the tracking and tracing will not be nearly as effective. Not a good decision IMHO.
RE: Contact tracing - burger - 06-11-2020
If Santa Clara county can't get contact tracing right, will any county in California? I doubt it.
My county, Sacramento, is not doing any better. Our health department head was calling for a reopening back in April. When the governor put out their standards for the # of contact tracers needed in each county, she argued that Sacramento needed fewer because we didn't have many cases. Now cases are climbing again here, and no one in charge seems to care.
But, hey, it could be worse--we could live in Arizona. Check out what their state health director said:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1271192445816987650[/tweet]
Arizona cases:
![[Image: gmtfs4i.png]](https://i.imgur.com/gmtfs4i.png)
RE: Contact tracing - 76lsjumb - 06-11-2020
I might have missed it earlier in this thread [and, if so, I apologize], but can someone explain how one can realistically and effectively contact-trace tens [hundreds?] of thousands of participants in mass protests spreading over several nights in many of the nation's major cities? And, if that isn't possible, given what has actually happened over the past 2 weeks or so, isn't the absence of effective contact tracing perhaps not as consequential as it otherwise might have been [i.e., an awful lot of problems are going to arise from the protests that sort of dwarf the inability to perfectly contact-trace a neighbor's multi-family Memorial Day BBQ]?
RE: Contact tracing - Goose - 06-11-2020
In order to not be totally negative about the situation, I submit the following link.
https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/san-mateo-county-coronavirus-tracing-efforts-begin-taking-shape/article_9b6c54e8-a619-11ea-9cd4-bbff4778405f.html
It would seem they still claim they are tracing 100% of the positive tests and are contacting them all. They claim they did this during the entire outbreak. If true, and I have no reason to disbelieve them, this is a stellar performance and they deserve great praise. Next question is why can they do this and other counties can't? Also, no real info on how quarantine compliance is monitored.
RE: Contact tracing - Farm93 - 06-11-2020
(06-11-2020, 03:43 PM)76lsjumb Wrote: I might have missed it earlier in this thread [and, if so, I apologize], but can someone explain how one can realistically and effectively contact-trace tens [hundreds?] of thousands of participants in mass protests spreading over several nights in many of the nation's major cities? And, if that isn't possible, given what has actually happened over the past 2 weeks or so, isn't the absence of effective contact tracing perhaps not as consequential as it otherwise might have been [i.e., an awful lot of problems are going to arise from the protests that sort of dwarf the inability to perfectly contact-trace a neighbor's multi-family Memorial Day BBQ]?I can help here with this a bit.
The injustice inspiring the protest has killed far more citizens than this virus will ever be able to kill. So if a few thousand more die to raise awareness of our nation's original sin then that will be an acceptable sacrifice for many fighting that cause.
For spread concerns related to COVID, the protests were outdoors (good) and generally people do not stay near the same people for lengthy periods of time unless they are their friends or family (good). A protest like that tends to have people moving between different individuals over the duration of the event. That frequent shuffling is critical because getting exposed to the virus and having a sufficient viral load likely requires staying near those shedding the virus for a sustained period of time, especially if the two people were outside.
Let's contrast that to Memorial day BBQs. Of course I will assume the BBQ was honoring our brave citizens that lost their lives fighting for our freedom. If it was just an excuse to BBQ some hot dogs with friends, then the little BBQ really shouldn't have happened given our COVID pandemic. That BBQ would have had the same group of 10-20 people in the same house or the same backyard for hours (bad) In that scenario if any single person at the BBQ was COVID positive it would be rather likely that those that sat near them for a movie, shared food with them at the BBQ or talked with them for a long duration might get the virus.
As we have really lousy tracing in the USA we likely will never know which activity group produced more COVID cases. Though it is likely both events will add to our summer case, hospitalization and death tallies.
RE: Contact tracing - 2006alum - 06-11-2020
(06-11-2020, 03:43 PM)76lsjumb Wrote: I might have missed it earlier in this thread [and, if so, I apologize], but can someone explain how one can realistically and effectively contact-trace tens [hundreds?] of thousands of participants in mass protests spreading over several nights in many of the nation's major cities? And, if that isn't possible, given what has actually happened over the past 2 weeks or so, isn't the absence of effective contact tracing perhaps not as consequential as it otherwise might have been [i.e., an awful lot of problems are going to arise from the protests that sort of dwarf the inability to perfectly contact-trace a neighbor's multi-family Memorial Day BBQ]?
Clearly contract tracing is not at the top of our leader's agenda insofar as his chief concern appears to be making sure he doesn't get sued for contributing to the deaths of those who attend his rallies:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ChloeSalsameda/status/1271237029439758336?s=20[/tweet]
Truly, is anyone surprised we are descending into a failed state? There is no leadership at the top, and nearly everyone below is squabbling as much as they are providing solutions. The time for contact tracing was in March and early April when the numbers were low and this was a manageable way to limit new infections. Between states re-opening in mid-April, the "end the lockdown" rallies in late April and early May, and the George Floyd rallies over the past two weeks, we're way past the point of contract tracing being a solution. It may help, especially in areas where the virus is still not very prevalent, but at this point we appear to have capitulated to the virus and it's every man for himself...
Pathetic.
RE: Contact tracing - Goose - 06-11-2020
(06-11-2020, 05:58 PM)2006alum Wrote: The time for contact tracing was in March and early April when the numbers were low and this was a manageable way to limit new infections.It would have been nice. However, many counties simply couldn't do it because they had no capability already in place. San Mateo county apparently did have such a capability, but even so opted to go along with the shutdown.
Quote:Between states re-opening in mid-April, the "end the lockdown" rallies in late April and early May, and the George Floyd rallies over the past two weeks, we're way past the point of contract tracing being a solution.I understand your point. Right now, most places have a case load that would be manageable IF they were ready right today to use contact tracing to contain the spread. The problem is it appears that the places who had no capability or inadequate capability didn't move fast enough to prepare for re-opening. It was entirely clear that "the hammer" part of the treatment would be tolerated only until the curve was mostly flattened. We needed to be ready for "the dance". We aren't, and that is a reflection on our entire social mindset.
Quote:It may help, especially in areas where the virus is still not very prevalent, but at this point we appear to have capitulated to the virus and it's every man for himself...It would appear you are mostly correct about this last part. No excuse, and it is pathetic.
Pathetic.
RE: Contact tracing - Farm93 - 06-11-2020
(06-11-2020, 05:58 PM)2006alum Wrote: ...at this point we appear to have capitulated to the virus and it's every man for himself...I have now mastered curbside pickup apps at multiple stores. Groceries, sushi, fast food all by app. Coupled with Amazon and Ebay activity I could stay away from going in stores for months. As we will not have the testing and tracing up to the standard of any other G20 country, I will continue to keep my personal contact down as much as possible.
Pathetic.
My hope is that everything stabilizes enough so I can attend Big Game, but I fear that may not happen.