Chances of Completing the Football Season?

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Chances of Completing the Football Season? - Papa John - 11-09-2020

I naively thought that the Pac-12's caution and diagnostic tools would result in few cancellations of conference football games. It looks I was wrong. Here's my calculation of the trajectory of FBS games since week 1:

Week 1 (Sept. 3-7)
Postponed/Canceled: 2
Scheduled: 11
% Postponed/Canceled: 18.1

Week 2
Postponed/Canceled: 4
Scheduled: 24
% Postponed/Canceled: 16.7

Week 3

Postponed/Canceled: 5
Scheduled: 25
% Postponed/Canceled: 20

Week 4

Postponed/Canceled: 5
Scheduled: 35
% Postponed/Canceled: 14.3

Week 5

Postponed/Canceled: 2
Scheduled: 34
% Postponed/Canceled: 5.9

Week 6

Postponed/Canceled: 2
Scheduled: 31
% Postponed/Canceled: 6.5

Week 7

Postponed/Canceled: 6
Scheduled: 34
% Postponed/Canceled: 17.6

Week 8

Postponed/Canceled: 1
Scheduled: 48
% Postponed/Canceled: 2.1

Week 9

Postponed/Canceled: 3
Scheduled: 46
% Postponed/Canceled: 6.5

Week 10

Postponed/Canceled: 10
Scheduled: 59
% Postponed/Canceled: 16.9

Week 11 (so far)

Postponed/Canceled: 2 and counting
Scheduled: 59
% Postponed/Canceled: ??

2 out of 6 Pac-12 games were canceled last Saturday. I'm guessing we'll see the same number of cancellations this coming weekend, specifically Utah @ UCLA and Cal @ ASU. Bigger picture, Bama-LSU is in jeopardy due to an outbreak in the LSU program. Texas A&M has had multiple positive tests, although at the moment they plan to play this weekend. Notre Dame is requiring Covid testing for all students because of those who rushed the field after the victory over Clemson--as of yesterday, the ND campus positivity rate had risen to 5.2%. It will be interesting to see if there is a "Clemson" bump.

A couple of weeks ago, I would have put Stanford's chance at completing the seven-game schedule at 80%. Now I'm thinking it's 50-50.

RE: Chances of Completing the Football Season? - Farm93 - 11-09-2020

I am confident all PAC-12 schools will try to play the scheduled 6 games on their schedule.

Some may play 2 or 3. Others may play 6.
Still because of TV revenue all pre CG weekend games are important.

On PAC-12 CG weekend my guess is the networks will not be that interested in the non-CG games. Maybe 1 or 2 of those games are held.

PAC-12 CG will be held as long as each division has at least one team able to participate.

Outside of PAC-12 the SEC has the best chance to finish up everything. The weather is mild, many teams have a lot of players that had COVID, and the return to play policies are very lenient.

RE: Chances of Completing the Football Season? - teejers1 - 11-09-2020

(11-09-2020, 05:11 PM)Farm93 Wrote: I am confident all PAC-12 schools will try to play the scheduled 6 games on their schedule.

Some may play 2 or 3. Others may play 6.
Still because of TV revenue all pre CG weekend games are important.

On PAC-12 CG weekend my guess is the networks will not be that interested in the non-CG games. Maybe 1 or 2 of those games are held.

PAC-12 CG will be held as long as each division has at least one team able to participate.

Outside of PAC-12 the SEC has the best chance to finish up everything. The weather is mild, many teams have a lot of players that had COVID, and the return to play policies are very lenient.

And there are open dates to fit in missed games (or at least were, iirc).

RE: Chances of Completing the Football Season? - Spiny_Norman - 11-09-2020

(11-09-2020, 07:09 PM)teejers1 Wrote:
(11-09-2020, 05:11 PM)Farm93 Wrote: I am confident all PAC-12 schools will try to play the scheduled 6 games on their schedule.

Some may play 2 or 3. Others may play 6.
Still because of TV revenue all pre CG weekend games are important.

On PAC-12 CG weekend my guess is the networks will not be that interested in the non-CG games. Maybe 1 or 2 of those games are held.

PAC-12 CG will be held as long as each division has at least one team able to participate.

Outside of PAC-12 the SEC has the best chance to finish up everything. The weather is mild, many teams have a lot of players that had COVID, and the return to play policies are very lenient.

And there are open dates to fit in missed games (or at least were, iirc).

There are no open dates/off weeks in the P12 schedule. It's 7 consecutive weeks. That's why the Cal game last week was cancelled, not postponed.

Or were you saying that the SEC has open dates?

RE: Chances of Completing the Football Season? - winflop - 11-09-2020

Starting to think the more prudent schedule would have been 5 games, all in division, with a week 6 buffer for any cancelled games

RE: Chances of Completing the Football Season? - JustAnotherFan - 11-09-2020

It should be a zero chance. But given the Pac-12's foolish and bull-headed decision to put out an inferior product this covid-season I would give it a 25% chance because they want to justify their irresponsible actions.

RE: Chances of Completing the Football Season? - teejers1 - 11-09-2020

(11-09-2020, 07:18 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:
(11-09-2020, 07:09 PM)teejers1 Wrote:
(11-09-2020, 05:11 PM)Farm93 Wrote: I am confident all PAC-12 schools will try to play the scheduled 6 games on their schedule.

Some may play 2 or 3. Others may play 6.
Still because of TV revenue all pre CG weekend games are important.

On PAC-12 CG weekend my guess is the networks will not be that interested in the non-CG games. Maybe 1 or 2 of those games are held.

PAC-12 CG will be held as long as each division has at least one team able to participate.

Outside of PAC-12 the SEC has the best chance to finish up everything. The weather is mild, many teams have a lot of players that had COVID, and the return to play policies are very lenient.

And there are open dates to fit in missed games (or at least were, iirc).

There are no open dates/off weeks in the P12 schedule. It's 7 consecutive weeks. That's why the Cal game last week was cancelled, not postponed.

Or were you saying that the SEC has open dates?

The latter (and even B10, I thought).
And I put chances of completing Pac season at below 50% once schedule announced, in no small part because of no buffer period.

RE: Chances of Completing the Football Season? - Spiny_Norman - 11-09-2020

(11-09-2020, 10:28 PM)teejers1 Wrote: The latter (and even B10, I thought).
And I put chances of completing Pac season at below 50% once schedule announced, in no small part because of no buffer period.

No off weeks for the B10, Teejers.

[twitter]https://twitter.com/bigten/status/1307332302641528834[/twitter]

RE: Chances of Completing the Football Season? - fullmetal - 11-09-2020

For the Pac-12, the only open dates would be the Saturday of championship weekend. The Pac-12 championship game will be on Friday of that weekend, and the league has not announced how the other teams will be matched up on Saturday. It's looking like we'll need that Saturday to make up games if possible.

RE: Chances of Completing the Football Season? - Papa John - 11-13-2020

(11-09-2020, 04:52 PM)Papa John Wrote: I naively thought that the Pac-12's caution and diagnostic tools would result in few cancellations of conference football games. It looks I was wrong. Here's my calculation of the trajectory of FBS games since week 1:

Week 1 (Sept. 3-7)
Postponed/Canceled: 2
Scheduled: 11
% Postponed/Canceled: 18.1

Week 2
Postponed/Canceled: 4
Scheduled: 24
% Postponed/Canceled: 16.7

Week 3

Postponed/Canceled: 5
Scheduled: 25
% Postponed/Canceled: 20

Week 4

Postponed/Canceled: 5
Scheduled: 35
% Postponed/Canceled: 14.3

Week 5

Postponed/Canceled: 2
Scheduled: 34
% Postponed/Canceled: 5.9

Week 6

Postponed/Canceled: 2
Scheduled: 31
% Postponed/Canceled: 6.5

Week 7

Postponed/Canceled: 6
Scheduled: 34
% Postponed/Canceled: 17.6

Week 8

Postponed/Canceled: 1
Scheduled: 48
% Postponed/Canceled: 2.1

Week 9

Postponed/Canceled: 3
Scheduled: 46
% Postponed/Canceled: 6.5

Week 10

Postponed/Canceled: 10
Scheduled: 59
% Postponed/Canceled: 16.9

Week 11 (so far)

Postponed/Canceled: 2 and counting
Scheduled: 59
% Postponed/Canceled: ??

2 out of 6 Pac-12 games were canceled last Saturday. I'm guessing we'll see the same number of cancellations this coming weekend, specifically Utah @ UCLA and Cal @ ASU. Bigger picture, Bama-LSU is in jeopardy due to an outbreak in the LSU program. Texas A&M has had multiple positive tests, although at the moment they plan to play this weekend. Notre Dame is requiring Covid testing for all students because of those who rushed the field after the victory over Clemson--as of yesterday, the ND campus positivity rate had risen to 5.2%. It will be interesting to see if there is a "Clemson" bump.

A couple of weeks ago, I would have put Stanford's chance at completing the seven-game schedule at 80%. Now I'm thinking it's 50-50.

Revised Week 11 (as of Friday at 10 am)

Postponed/Canceled: 12 and counting
Scheduled: 59
% Postponed/Canceled: ??

The list includes games involving 14 of the 65 Power 5 teams and 6 top-25 teams (Alabama, The Ohio State University, Texas A&M, Georgia, Coastal Carolina, Auburn).

RE: Chances of Completing the Football Season? - Papa John - 11-13-2020

Week 11, Friday 1 pm update

Postponed/Canceled: 15 and counting
Scheduled: 59
% Postponed/Canceled: ??

The list includes games involving 16 of the 65 Power 5 teams and 6 top-25 teams. I don't want to say it, but, metaphorically speaking, the wheels are falling off the wagon.

RE: Chances of Completing the Football Season? - chrisk - 11-13-2020

(11-13-2020, 02:01 PM)Papa John Wrote: Week 11, Friday 1 pm update

Postponed/Canceled: 15 and counting
Scheduled: 59
% Postponed/Canceled: ??

The list includes games involving 16 of the 65 Power 5 teams and 6 top-25 teams. I don't want to say it, but, metaphorically speaking, the wheels are falling off the wagon.

PAC-12 is considering having Cal play at UCLA Sunday since both had their games cancelled this weekend by their opponents.

RE: Chances of Completing the Football Season? - Papa John - 11-13-2020

(11-13-2020, 02:14 PM)chrisk Wrote:
(11-13-2020, 02:01 PM)Papa John Wrote: Week 11, Friday 1 pm update

Postponed/Canceled: 15 and counting
Scheduled: 59
% Postponed/Canceled: ??

The list includes games involving 16 of the 65 Power 5 teams and 6 top-25 teams. I don't want to say it, but, metaphorically speaking, the wheels are falling off the wagon.

PAC-12 is considering having Cal play at UCLA Sunday since both had their games cancelled this weekend by their opponents.

I heard about that, chrisk, and I hope it happens. I feel for the folks who have to deal with the logistics in rescheduling two football teams 48 hours before they will play. Not to mention the chaos in game-planning for a team that you weren't expecting to face this season. But I'm guessing that the teams would be happy to play against anyone, so in 2020 some football is better than none.

RE: Chances of Completing the Football Season? - donkey687 - 11-13-2020

(11-13-2020, 02:01 PM)Papa John Wrote: Week 11, Friday 1 pm update

Postponed/Canceled: 15 and counting
Scheduled: 59
% Postponed/Canceled: ??

The list includes games involving 16 of the 65 Power 5 teams and 6 top-25 teams. I don't want to say it, but, metaphorically speaking, the wheels are falling off the wagon.

On hindsight, September and October were the better times to be playing football than November with COVID spiking as predicted. I don't see how the hoops season is going to start on time. I think football will get shut down in the next couple of weeks. I am excited to watch Davis Mills play tomorrow as we won't likely have many chances to see him play.

RE: Chances of Completing the Football Season? - Papa John - 11-13-2020

(11-13-2020, 02:14 PM)chrisk Wrote: PAC-12 is considering having Cal play at UCLA Sunday since both had their games cancelled this weekend by their opponents.

Just saw the announcement. Cal at UCLA on Sunday at... 9 am. You can watch it on FS1.

lex24 - lex24 - 11-13-2020

Define complete.......

RE: lex24 - JohnR34231 - 11-14-2020

(11-13-2020, 04:58 PM)lex24 Wrote: Define complete.......

I think there will be some games played, some cancelled, some postponed and made up.
At this point I don't think the whole thing will be called off.

RE: lex24 - gailtate - 11-14-2020

(11-14-2020, 06:39 AM)JohnR34231 Wrote:
(11-13-2020, 04:58 PM)lex24 Wrote: Define complete.......

I think there will be some games played, some cancelled, some postponed and made up.
At this point I don't think the whole thing will be called off.

60-40, against.

RE: lex24 - 82lsju - 11-14-2020

(11-13-2020, 04:58 PM)lex24 Wrote: Define complete.......

I'd define "complete" as - the three college football playoff games are played. I think it highly likely they will be played.

RE: Chances of Completing the Football Season? - Papa John - 11-16-2020

So 15 out of 59 FBS games, including those involving 6 top-25 teams, were postponed/canceled last weekend. However, the Pac-12 was able to salvage UCLA vs. Cal, so we'll call it 14 out of 59, or 23.7%.

For week 12, we have 62 FBS games scheduled, starting on Thursday. As of Monday at 1:30 pm, four games have been postponed/canceled, including one involving a top-25 team (#5 Texas A&M). In the Pac-12 ASU/CU has already been canceled, and we'll see what happens with USC/Utah or the other conference games.

Assuming we get through a regular season--which is an assumption, not a presumption in my book--it will be interesting to see if the CFP and four participating teams can institute some kind of bubble. I can't imagine a virus-free situation in which players go home for Christmas/winter break and return to their respective campuses.