The Curfew - Printable Version

The Curfew - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: Emergency (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-11.html)
+--- Forum: Covid-19 (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-12.html)
+--- Thread: The Curfew (/thread-20931.html)

Pages: 1 2

The Curfew - lex24 - 11-20-2020

Why? Indoor dining is closed. Bars are closed. Clubs are closed. Movie theaters are closed, bowling alleys are closed, tattoo parlors are closed, gyms are closed, everything is closed.

Police are not going to be going door to door to check out peoples homes. I don’t think they’re gonna be pulling cars off the road en masse that happen to be out after 10.

It makes no difference to me personally, Hell I’m never out after 10 PM. But I fail to see how this has any impact - except to piss a whole lot of people off who are already sick and tired of being told what they can and cannot do. And it’s particularly unfortunate timing wise given Newsom‘s Happy Meal and the Great Hawaiian Boondoggle.

Also, I wonder what will happen when someone call the cops and says that the house next-door is having a dinner party it’s 10:30 and they know that there are non household members there. Are they going to have the SWAT team race out there blow down the door and round up the offenders.

RE: The Curfew - dabigv13 - 11-20-2020

You seem pretty upset about something that you acknowledge doesn't affect you. CA case, hospitalization, ICU, and fatality rates are all increasing, and we're barely into the start of winter, so I'm glad SOMETHING is being done that is getting covered in the news to inform people that the situation is getting worse, especially before a busy holiday season. Also, stricter measures are surely coming, so better to ease the populace into it.

RE: The Curfew - chrisk - 11-20-2020

(11-20-2020, 06:57 PM)lex24 Wrote: Why? Indoor dining is closed. Bars are closed. Clubs are closed. Movie theaters are closed, bowling alleys are closed, tattoo parlors are closed, gyms are closed, everything is closed.

Police are not going to be going door to door to check out peoples homes. I don’t think they’re gonna be pulling cars off the road en masse that happen to be out after 10.

It makes no difference to me personally, Hell I’m never out after 10 PM. But I fail to see how this has any impact - except to piss a whole lot of people off who are already sick and tired of being told what they can and cannot do. And it’s particularly unfortunate timing wise given Newsom‘s Happy Meal and the Great Hawaiian Boondoggle.

Also, I wonder what will happen when someone call the cops and says that the house next-door is having a dinner party it’s 10:30 and they know that there are non household members there. Are they going to have the SWAT team race out there blow down the door and round up the offenders.

SCC is on track to exceed hospital capacity in 3 weeks. Don't be so sure they won't start knocking on doors to root out the parties that are causing the spread.

RE: The Curfew - M T - 11-20-2020

(11-20-2020, 07:07 PM)chrisk Wrote: SCC is on track to exceed hospital capacity in 3 weeks.

I don't see that when I look at the stats. I'm wondering who would be claiming that and why.
Apparently Dr. Cody said this.

(ICU available beds dropped from 53 to 48% in the last 2 weeks, partly due to an increase of 23 COVD-related patients, with 230 empty beds; Non-ICU available beds dropped from 33 to 30% in the last 2 weeks, partly due to an increase of 60 COVID-related patients, with 600 empty beds.)
I do expect more patients, faster, unless we get R down (and it may be starting to edge downward), but I suspect elective procedures are still happening.

The report of Dr. Cody's comments described an increase from 110 last week to 166 this week. Even if we take a 50% increase for each of the next 3 weeks (certainly believable to me, but higher than our Rt) and the hospitals maintain the same number of other patients, the total number of COVID patients in 3 weeks would be 560, about half of the other patients. That increase of 400 COVID patients would bring the number of available hospital beds (at current levels) to 432. By the 4th week of 50% increase per week, things would be getting tight, if the number of other patients didn't decrease.

Update on Saturday 11/21 (of cases reported to health dept. on Friday, by announcement day):
403 new cases Sat., (2498 announced Sun-Sat. Up 32% over week ago), 401 Friday, 345 Thurs, 281 Wed, 345 Tues, 388 Mon, 335 Sun,
330 Sat (1890 announced Sun-Sat), 362 Fri, 185 Thu, 159 Wed, 232 Tues, 264 Mon, 358 Sun
All beds in SCC: 9 additional COVID-positive beds and 3 additional COVID-PUI beds in use today; 31 fewer other patients. Net of 59 additional available beds. Right around 33% available beds overall.
In ICU: 1 additional COVID-PUI bed in use. Right around 48% available beds in ICU.

lex24 - lex24 - 11-20-2020

[quote="dabigv13" pid='297374' dateline='1605924205']
You seem pretty upset about something that you acknowledge doesn't affect you. CA case, hospitalization, ICU, and fatality rates are all increasing, and we're barely into the start of winter, so I'm glad SOMETHING is being done that is getting covered in the news to inform people that the situation is getting worse, especially before a busy holiday season. Also, stricter measures are surely coming, so better to ease the populace into it.

Upset? No. I just fail to see the correlation. If you can show me something that suggests that there is evidence in California that the spread has occurred more rapidly because of activities between 10 PM and 5 AM I will stand corrected.

Sorry that I dare to question.

RE: The Curfew - Goose - 11-20-2020

(11-20-2020, 07:03 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Also, stricter measures are surely coming, so better to ease the populace into it.

I agree with you that stricter measures are coming, but I totally disagree that easing people into it is a good idea. The conclusion many will (rightly IMHO) draw from a sequence of increasingly strict measures is that the people issuing these regulations actually have no idea how effective the regulations are going to be. It shows a lack of competence. This is especially true of a curfew that really doesn't do much. We all know that the numbers today will yield increased hospitalizations and deaths later. Why an added delay to regulations that will actually do something?

lex24 - lex24 - 11-20-2020

(11-20-2020, 07:07 PM)chrisk Wrote:
(11-20-2020, 06:57 PM)lex24 Wrote: Why? Indoor dining is closed. Bars are closed. Clubs are closed. Movie theaters are closed, bowling alleys are closed, tattoo parlors are closed, gyms are closed, everything is closed.

Police are not going to be going door to door to check out peoples homes. I don’t think they’re gonna be pulling cars off the road en masse that happen to be out after 10.

It makes no difference to me personally, Hell I’m never out after 10 PM. But I fail to see how this has any impact - except to piss a whole lot of people off who are already sick and tired of being told what they can and cannot do. And it’s particularly unfortunate timing wise given Newsom‘s Happy Meal and the Great Hawaiian Boondoggle.

Also, I wonder what will happen when someone call the cops and says that the house next-door is having a dinner party it’s 10:30 and they know that there are non household members there. Are they going to have the SWAT team race out there blow down the door and round up the offenders.

SCC is on track to exceed hospital capacity in 3 weeks. Don't be so sure they won't start knocking on doors to root out the parties that are causing the spread.

Good luck with that.

RE: The Curfew - BostonCard - 11-20-2020

Three things.

1) it is very clear now that people take cues about the risk from the level of restrictions that come from officials. Opening up bars and restaurants in the summer didn't just affect bars and restaurants; it affected people's perceptions on the risk of COVID-19, and along with those announcements came a general relaxation of social distancing.

2) I have taken to walking in the evenings after dinner. Without fail, especially on the week ends, I go by houses that are hosting parties. The evidence is that many of the transmissions going on right now are happening in gatherings in people's homes. Now, a 10 to 6 curfew doesn't mean that people won't make it a brunch or dinner party instead of an after dinner party. It reduces the likelihood of people drinking and making poor choices because of alcohol. So, hopefully it will make a difference. If not, the next step is to ban private get togethers outside of the household.

There is only one number that matters, whether R(t) is above or below 1. Even if you think the current level of infections, hospitalizations, or deaths is acceptable currently, if Rt is above 1, it will eventually exceed an acceptable level. So you might as well take steps to drive that number down now, while you can, then be looking at an Rt greater than one and an unacceptable number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, because that is when the county and state will be forced to impose more draconian measures, because it will have to arrest the spread as quickly as possible.

The good news is we have time. WE can take steps to bring R(t) to less than one, at which point infections will peak and start to decline, more patients will be discharged from the hospital than will be coming in with COVID-19, and deaths will, with some delay, start to come down. If we can bring R(t) < 1 gently, then we can can salvage some semblance of a winter. But if we don't, we will eventually reach a level of infections that will cause panic and force the authorities to impose more draconian restrictions.

BC

RE: The Curfew - chrisk - 11-20-2020

Regarding police knocking on your door, San Jose police just established a toll-free hotline where you can report businesses that are breaking rules and neighbors who are hosting parties.

RE: The Curfew - Goose - 11-20-2020

(11-20-2020, 09:22 PM)chrisk Wrote: Regarding police knocking on your door, San Jose police just established a toll-free hotline where you can report businesses that are breaking rules and neighbors who are hosting parties.

IMHO, good. About time. If one is serious about regulation, there has to be at least a reasonable attempt to enforce whatever that level of regulation may be. I think the curfew starting at 2200 is silly. If it started at 1800 it may help. That is what they have in the moderately serious areas of Italy. They do however enforce it. Even that may not be enough, based on what their numbers are, but at least they are trying. Now San Jose may be trying too. Let's just hope they actually do something, but I fear 2200 will be a noop on the COVID-19 spread.

RE: The Curfew - OutsiderFan - 11-20-2020

Here's a real world reality.

As y'all may or may not know, I came to CA from CT on 9/30 to be with my in declining health father, not knowing which way things would turn or how long I would stay. He passed on Oct. 29, and only this coming Tuesday are his ashes being deposited, something I wanted to stick around for, as well as helping out my mother. The Covid spike has made me re-think any travel back to CT. When I came out we had about 40,000 cases per day. We're now pushing 200,000, so that changes the calculus quite a bit.

My sister and her family came from Sacramento a couple weekends ago, and they were planning to come for Thanksgiving. Then today I learned she wanted to come for the burial on Tuesday. After hearing we are in Purple Tier, the CDC saying not to travel for Thanksgiving, the curfew, looking at the rising cases and positive test rate, and watching Rachel Maddow on her first night on TV since her quarantine (and partner getting sick with Covid), I have re-thought our Thanksgiving plans and will now advocate my sister stays home.

So I guess my point is that the curfew doesn't do much to stop spread in and of itself, but these warnings definitely change behavior. Without Purple Tier, curfew, and CDC, and Maddow warnings, I would have gone through with Thanksgiving plans. This is why I don't think it's smart to be playing football games now. It sends the wrong message that things aren't that bad. In fact, they are terrible. With 200,000 new infections in a day already before Thanksgiving, if we don't change our behavior, we could easily see 250,000 to 300,000 per day by mid-December. We just can't have this. It's far better to make people know the seriousness of what is going on, to change behavior to stop spread in anyway possible.

It just sucks that small businesses have to be the ones taking it in the shorts to protect the public's health. But the fact is if too many people die and hospitals are overwhelmed, there won't be any business to be had anyway.

lex24 - lex24 - 11-20-2020

(11-20-2020, 09:55 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Here's a real world reality.

As y'all may or may not know, I came to CA from CT on 9/30 to be with my in declining health father, not knowing which way things would turn or how long I would stay. He passed on Oct. 29, and only this coming Tuesday are his ashes being deposited, something I wanted to stick around for, as well as helping out my mother. The Covid spike has made me re-think any travel back to CT. When I came out we had about 40,000 cases per day. We're now pushing 200,000, so that changes the calculus quite a bit.

My sister and her family came from Sacramento a couple weekends ago, and they were planning to come for Thanksgiving. Then today I learned she wanted to come for the burial on Tuesday. After hearing we are in Purple Tier, the CDC saying not to travel for Thanksgiving, the curfew, looking at the rising cases and positive test rate, and watching Rachel Maddow on her first night on TV since her quarantine (and partner getting sick with Covid), I have re-thought our Thanksgiving plans and will now advocate my sister stays home.

So I guess my point is that the curfew doesn't do much to stop spread in and of itself, but these warnings definitely change behavior. Without Purple Tier, curfew, and CDC, and Maddow warnings, I would have gone through with Thanksgiving plans. This is why I don't think it's smart to be playing football games now. It sends the wrong message that things aren't that bad. In fact, they are terrible. With 200,000 new infections in a day already before Thanksgiving, if we don't change our behavior, we could easily see 250,000 to 300,000 per day by mid-December. We just can't have this. It's far better to make people know the seriousness of what is going on, to change behavior to stop spread in anyway possible.

It just sucks that small businesses have to be the ones taking it in the shorts to protect the public's health. But the fact is if too many people die and hospitals are overwhelmed, there won't be any business to be had anyway.

Sorry about your father. May he Rest In Peace.

RE: The Curfew - magnus - 11-20-2020

It's a balancing act as to how fast and far you go at a time. Go to far, and fewer listen. Go too light, and few sense the urgency.

As was mentioned on the PBS special about WA state, they planned the spring restrictions and steps to have maximum impact while trying to not overstep. After the big tech work from home step, the next was to close schools, which likely definitely put the severity of the virus in focus for the whole state.

This time around, the messaging will be even harder since it has to battle SIP/covid fatigue.

Anyway, getting back on topic, the electricity in my area went out at 9PM. Talk about a sneaky way to enforce curfew...if they hadn't come back on an hour later. =) (then again, maybe having an hour blackout is enough to get people to retire for the night)

RE: The Curfew - Snorlax94 - 11-21-2020

My sense is that curfews work.

We had curfews over the summer during the BLM protests and, as a side effect, it seemed to decrease Covid numbers. My recollection is that curfew was at 9pm.

I would be in favor of making the current curfew at 9pm, maybe 8:30 or even 8. I definitely want it early enough to impact gatherings in homes, which we have been told time and again by contact tracers are the major sources of transmission.

One advantage of curfews is that they are enforceable — just pull over people driving past 9pm or photograph their plates and send them a ticket (which they can dispute).

My concern with an earlier curfew is the fact that essential workers may work 9-5 and may not get home until 6 and they need a chance to go to the grocery store or drugstore, too.

RE: The Curfew - akiddoc - 11-21-2020

(11-21-2020, 12:08 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote: My sense is that curfews work.

We had curfews over the summer during the BLM protests and, as a side effect, it seemed to decrease Covid numbers. My recollection is that curfew was at 9pm.

I would be in favor of making the current curfew at 9pm, maybe 8:30 or even 8. I definitely want it early enough to impact gatherings in homes, which we have been told time and again by contact tracers are the major sources of transmission.

One advantage of curfews is that they are enforceable — just pull over people driving past 9pm or photograph their plates and send them a ticket (which they can dispute).

My concern with an earlier curfew is the fact that essential workers may work 9-5 and may not get home until 6 and they need a chance to go to the grocery store or drugstore, too.

The current "curfew" does not affect grocery store hours. Or drugstore hours. Or whether or not you can go to those stores.

lex24 - lex24 - 11-21-2020

(11-21-2020, 12:08 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote: My sense is that curfews work.

We had curfews over the summer during the BLM protests and, as a side effect, it seemed to decrease Covid numbers. My recollection is that curfew was at 9pm.

I would be in favor of making the current curfew at 9pm, maybe 8:30 or even 8. I definitely want it early enough to impact gatherings in homes, which we have been told time and again by contact tracers are the major sources of transmission.

One advantage of curfews is that they are enforceable — just pull over people driving past 9pm or photograph their plates and send them a ticket (which they can dispute).

My concern with an earlier curfew is the fact that essential workers may work 9-5 and may not get home until 6 and they need a chance to go to the grocery store or drugstore, too.

No, you can’t just pull people over. Or take pictures of their license plates to issue tickets. There are still exceptions - as doc points out - to the curfew. So the police have no way of knowing if it’s a violation. Further to have that as a policy would be disastrous. We’ve had enough police issues without adding such stops. Further the pushback from those that still believe in liberty would be massive. And, unlike the absurdity over masks, justified.

(11-20-2020, 09:22 PM)chrisk Wrote: Regarding police knocking on your door, San Jose police just established a toll-free hotline where you can report businesses that are breaking rules and neighbors who are hosting parties.

Sorry if I don’t join those celebrating this “hotline”.

RE: The Curfew - dabigv13 - 11-21-2020

I'm curious what interventions you think would turn around the pandemic growth but would not provoke an outcry from "those that still believe in liberty".

RE: The Curfew - Farm93 - 11-21-2020

(11-21-2020, 09:43 AM)dabigv13 Wrote: I'm curious what interventions you think would turn around the pandemic growth but would not provoke an outcry from "those that still believe in liberty".

I have watched the interview with nurses from South Dakota that were caring for COVID patients near death in the ICU that still insisted COVID was a hoax. So given, that entrenched view observed by nurses it is hard to believe any government official could issue a preventative or mitigation policy that will not have ~35% howling about liberty even if they find themselves in the hospital.

If the mitigation measure is not coming from POTUS45 directly that liberty crowd will not accept a COVID mitigation effort. And at this point, with 60 days to go, he would only think to issue a statement if a family member has a very, very bad COVID outcome in the next few weeks.

The Worldometers data is stunning at this point. Sort the state list by cases per million. A very clear trend emerges. With that data on my mind, I believe only a COVID death that touches POTUS45 directly has any chance of bending the curve, and I wonder if even that would be enough.

IMHO - There is no way a governor or a local health official can do anything that will derail the liberty crew. Given that reality they should just continue to issue statements & mandates for those that care about the health of their community members. Those officials should be confident that the majority of the citizens of the state will approve of the efforts and will support them in future elections. Hogan, DeWine, Whitmer and Newsom all have favorability data from pre-election polls that suggest their COVID mitigation actions are viewed favorable by the majority in their states. It would be great for an official if everyone does the right thing, but as long as the majority have a favorable view of the attempt then look for government officials to continue to recommend actions that would help if compliance was higher.

CA Curfew today - It won't work of course
Therefore SIP soon with the ability to say all other efforts were tried and were not effective enough.

FWIW - A lot of other state governors have publicly stated as much. They hope the curfews and closures work because the only step left is SIP. More or less a warning shot to the liberty crowds. Get behind these measures because you will really hate the next set of SIP mandates if this doesn't work.

RE: The Curfew - BostonCard - 11-21-2020

(11-21-2020, 10:19 AM)Farm93 Wrote: I have watched the interview with nurses from South Dakota that were caring for COVID patients near death in the ICU that still insisted COVID was a hoax. So given, that entrenched view observed by nurses it is hard to believe any government official could issue a preventative or mitigation policy that will not have ~35% howling about liberty even if they find themselves in the hospital.

Call me skeptical about that anecdote.

https://www.wired.com/story/are-covid-patients-gasping-it-isnt-real-as-they-die/

I posted it earlier, but after giving it a bit more thought, I think it falls under Colbert's definition of "truthiness": something that seems like it ought to be true but may or may not be.

Quote:Doering’s account is similarly a perfect fit for a narrative that has already been written, and one that has been passed along by respected people and prestigious outlets with scarcely any diligence at all. Even just a small amount of additional reporting suggests that her experience of encountering deathbed denialism and fury at Joe Biden could be more of a disturbing anomaly than a window on our troubled times. Even Doering herself seemed to float this possibility at one point during her CNN interview. “We have a lot of patients who are very, very grateful for their care, and very thankful for what you do,” she said to the host. “But unfortunately that’s not what I’m remembering right now.”

As someone who has practiced medicine in the ICU, now that I am thinking about it further, Doerings account doesn't jibe with experience. I've never treated someone with COVID-19, and I've never practiced medicine outside of the coasts, so maybe it is different in South Dakota in the age of COVID-19, but I doubt it. My guess though is that the vast majority of patients are very grateful for care, thankful for what they do, and trust their doctors and nurses.

BC

RE: The Curfew - Goose - 11-21-2020

(11-21-2020, 10:19 AM)Farm93 Wrote: They hope the curfews and closures work because the only step left is SIP. More or less a warning shot to the liberty crowds. Get behind these measures because you will really hate the next set of SIP mandates if this doesn't work.

The problem I have with all this is that the current thinking (at least that we see on this board) is that "house parties" are the major contributor to the current spread problem. These parties aren't the political statement type. They are you and your kids/grandkids having dinner together. While the "liberty" folks exist, they are not the problem at the moment, at least so it would seem. Certainly in SCC and SMC these folks aren't common. So anything regarding them does not apply. Yet we certainly have our problems here too.

There may be people who die claiming there is no COVID-19. I suspect those people are so few and far between (even in North Dakota) that they couldn't sustain an epidemic on their own. It is the other 99% of the population who simply aren't doing what is required to slow down spread. If it is true that we as a nation have allowed our respect for the law to erode to the point that say 35% of the people would simply ignore legally issued public health directives, we are indeed in serious, serious trouble. If you think such a directive is invalid, challenge it in court. Until it is overturned, obey it. It is not like there is any question of an "immoral action" required.

My personal belief is that the vast majority of the public WILL follow a public health directive if the jurisdiction that issues it shows they mean it by enforcing it. We have far too many laws (let alone public health orders) that are simply not enforced. The public gets the idea that "they don't mean it" and just does what they want. This becomes a (literally) fatal problem if the jurisdiction doesn't have the stomach to actually enforce a public health order.