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WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - 81alum - 03-09-2021

As we wait for the brackets to be announced on Monday, March 15, 4pm Pacific, I do wonder what to expect.  It seems pretty clear that if we win 5 games we will be likely to play UConn, unless someone else knocks them off first.

One of the oddities of this season is the fact that our team has played absolutely no one of any quality outside of our conference.  And so the question in the back of my mind--and probably in the minds of many, possibly including the seeding committee--is how good we really are.  We have proven that we are the best team in the Pac 12, and the Pac 12 finally has a good reputation for WBB--but without any head to head competition with other major WBB powerhouses it all remains a bit of a guess.  This was something Tara always avoided in the past--she is famous for loading up our schedule with Tennessee and UConn and South Carolina and Baylor and North Carolina etc. when those programs were each at their peaks.  But due to COVID, it could not happen this year, and so the NCAAs will be our very first foray against good teams outside of the Pac 12.

Statistically, we compare favorably.  But what about the eyeball test?  Those of you who have watched WBB from outside the Pac 12, how do you think we will match up?  I've heard some sentiment that we don't want to play Maryland, some that we want to play UConn in the finals, etc. 

For that matter, what kind of team is the most dangerous for us to play?  It is not as if we are a lopsided team this year with great posts but average guards, or great guards but average posts.  We are very well rounded, so it is hard for me to gauge what kind of teams we would prefer to play.  Here are a few thoughts, however:

1) Our defense in the post can be good--but I think a team with a couple of very experienced, skilled, big posts could pose problems for us.  Brink might foul out, Prechtel's inside defense is suspect, and I am undecided about the quality of Belibi's post defense.   No one in the Pac 12 challenged us in that way, although clearly Mya Hollingshed tore us up.  So I do not relish playing against twin towers or the like.  South Carolina, with Amihere and Boston, worries me.

2) In our only losses our three point shooting deserted us.  Both Colorado and UCLA played a pressure defense and this seemed at times to disrupt our perimeter shooting.  On the other hand I have a lot of confidence in our own defense.  If I were to pick our poison, I therefore would rather face a team with an elite offense and an average defense than the other way around.   During a six game stretch our offense might not always be superb--as we saw in the 3rd quarter against UCLA.  But our defense should never desert us.  Baylor is the only team with an even better field goal defense than us.  So they worry me.

I enjoyed watching Tara's last press conference, when she admitted to being a worrier, and no sooner had won the Pac 12 tourney than she began to think about ways to improve.  I only have about .0005% of her basketball mind, but I probably have about 105% of her worries :)

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - martyup - 03-09-2021

If anyone knows how good our team is, it's Tara.  If you have followed Tara's comments about this team, you can deduce that she feels this team is special and quite talented.  So, I like our chances against the NCAA field.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - TheFarm07 - 03-09-2021

81alum, I was going to create a similar thread, but you beat me to the punch.

We are also of similar minds in regards to worrying and to our assessment of the team.

Like you, I see our post position as a potential area of concern. Brink is awesome and when she's in the game, she's a difference maker on both ends of the court. However, the question is whether she can stay on the court and not pick up fouls. Tara knows she has a tendency to get them, so she will quickly pull Cameron if she gets an early foul, which brings Prechtel off the bench.

In my opinion, at the moment, Prechtel is a better shooter than Cameron is, but she lacks the paint scoring ability Brink has and while we have a plethora of capable shooters on the team, our ability to post up and score in the paint is much more limited. So not having Cameron playing takes that element away from our offense. Fran showed in bursts at the beginning of the season, especially in the first ASU game, that she can score in the paint, but she has not shown anywhere near that output ever since. Can she bring that back in time for the tournament?

I agree that our shooting and not just our 3-point shooting can go cold at times. As we saw, when our long range shots are landing, it opens up so many avenues for our offense, but teams will be content to let us blast away if those shots aren't going through the net and if teams have good post defenders, that might take away our drives to the basket.

I haven't really watched any other non-Stanford wBB games this season, except for most of the S. Carolina-UConn game. For UConn, locking down Bueckers is obviously important, I think Cameron will be matched up against Nelson-Ododa and I've been surprised at how much Westbrook has largely been a non-factor. I think we have good perimeter defenders to guard her and Christyn Williams.

For South Carolina, their go-to player is Boston. Like Brink, she not only scores and has a little range (she can knock down a 3 from time to time like Brink), but she can also block (2.8 b/g). That matchup will come down to whoever can keep out of foul trouble and we can potentially put Prechtel as another person to absorb fouls. Their point guard Henderson is fast, much like MacDonald, but she is also turnover-prone (2.8 to/g). Their other main guard Zia Cooke is also prone to coughing the ball up (2.4 to/g), so the Hull sisters and Wilson who are excellent at pressuring their player and stealing the ball should be matched up against them.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - BosCard - 03-09-2021

(03-09-2021, 11:04 AM)81alum Wrote:  As we wait for the brackets to be announced on Monday, March 15, 4pm Pacific, I do wonder what to expect.  It seems pretty clear that if we win 5 games we will be likely to play UConn, unless someone else knocks them off first.

One of the oddities of this season is the fact that our team has played absolutely no one of any quality outside of our conference.  And so the question in the back of my mind--and probably in the minds of many, possibly including the seeding committee--is how good we really are.  We have proven that we are the best team in the Pac 12, and the Pac 12 finally has a good reputation for WBB--but without any head to head competition with other major WBB powerhouses it all remains a bit of a guess.  This was something Tara always avoided in the past--she is famous for loading up our schedule with Tennessee and UConn and South Carolina and Baylor and North Carolina etc. when those programs were each at their peaks.  But due to COVID, it could not happen this year, and so the NCAAs will be our very first foray against good teams outside of the Pac 12.

Statistically, we compare favorably.  But what about the eyeball test?  Those of you who have watched WBB from outside the Pac 12, how do you think we will match up?  I've heard some sentiment that we don't want to play Maryland, some that we want to play UConn in the finals, etc. 

For that matter, what kind of team is the most dangerous for us to play?  It is not as if we are a lopsided team this year with great posts but average guards, or great guards but average posts.  We are very well rounded, so it is hard for me to gauge what kind of teams we would prefer to play.  Here are a few thoughts, however:

1) Our defense in the post can be good--but I think a team with a couple of very experienced, skilled, big posts could pose problems for us.  Brink might foul out, Prechtel's inside defense is suspect, and I am undecided about the quality of Belibi's post defense.   No one in the Pac 12 challenged us in that way, although clearly Mya Hollingshed tore us up.  So I do not relish playing against twin towers or the like.  South Carolina, with Amihere and Boston, worries me.

2) In our only losses our three point shooting deserted us.  Both Colorado and UCLA played a pressure defense and this seemed at times to disrupt our perimeter shooting.  On the other hand I have a lot of confidence in our own defense.  If I were to pick our poison, I therefore would rather face a team with an elite offense and an average defense than the other way around.   During a six game stretch our offense might not always be superb--as we saw in the 3rd quarter against UCLA.  But our defense should never desert us.  Baylor is the only team with an even better field goal defense than us.  So they worry me.

I enjoyed watching Tara's last press conference, when she admitted to being a worrier, and no sooner had won the Pac 12 tourney than she began to think about ways to improve.  I only have about .0005% of her basketball mind, but I probably have about 105% of her worries :)

The thing that gives me comfort that our success in conference will translate out of conference is that both UCLA and Arizona were strong teams last year and are essentially the same this year.  The only notable player gone is Japreece Dean from UCLA.  

Plus, I think overall the quality of the top teams has decreased vs last year.  There is no Ionescu-Hebard-Sabally Oregon team.  And I think Ty Harris and Mikiah Herbert Harrigan were more important to South Carolina's 19-20 success than people realized at the time.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - 81alum - 03-09-2021

OK, for the heck of it....assuming the current rankings become the NCAA tournament seedings (they won't) and assuming the seeds all stay true (they probably won't) then:

Which of these 2 seeds would we prefer to face in the quarterfinals?

South Carolina
Baylor
Louisville
Maryland

Which of these 1 seeds would we prefer to face in the semifinals?

UConn
Texas A&M
NC State

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - old spanish trail - 03-09-2021

Haven't seen the 2 seeds, so no opinion. Would want to play Conn from the one seeds.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - mbdude - 03-09-2021

1/4finals 2 seed - louisville,  semis 1 seed - Uconn

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - TheFarm07 - 03-09-2021

I didn't have too much time today, but I created a table with the most obvious stats for the 7 teams 81alum mentioned and I included our figures for comparison (the stats are through March 8th and the rankings are in parentheses):

PPGPPGAFG%FGA%3P%3PA%
South Carolina76.8 (21st)59.3 (54th)44.0% (53rd)36.4% (31st)33.6% (77th)27.0% (28th)
UConn82.0 (7th)50.5 (3rd)51.3% (2nd)33.1% (3rd)34.8% (57th)26.4% (20th)
Maryland91.3 (1st)70.3 (265th)49.0% (4th)41.2% (216th)41.2% (2nd)33.3% (257th)
Baylor81.6 (8th)54.1 (14th)48.7% (5th)32.1% (1st)33.2% (89th)27.6% (40th)
Texas A&M75.2 (34th)60.7 (79th)47.4% (10th)37.8% (71st)38.6% (8th)32.3% (210th)
N.C. State77.3 (18th)61.5 (98th)46.6% (15th)36.4% (28th)35.8% (36th)30.3% (117th)
Stanford78.4 (16th)52.7 (9th)46.6% (16th)32.6% (2nd)36.9% (26th)26.0% (13th)

According to 81alum's second point, if we prefer to play a team with an elite offense and an average defense, Maryland would actually be a team we want in our bracket rather than one to avoid. The Terrapins have a top shelf offense, 1st in points per game and top 5 in FG% and 3P%, but their defense is noticeably worse than the other teams in the table.

Statistically, UConn and Baylor are the teams we should avoid, since they look good on both offense and defense.

However, this is only a quantitative analysis and doesn't provide any context behind the numbers.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - TheWildJacko - 03-09-2021

(03-09-2021, 09:09 PM)TheFarm07 Wrote:  I didn't have too much time today, but I created a table with the most obvious stats for the 7 teams 81alum mentioned and I included our figures for comparison (the stats are through March 8th and the rankings are in parentheses):

PPGPPGAFG%FGA%3P%3PA%
South Carolina76.8 (21st)59.3 (54th)44.0% (53rd)36.4% (31st)33.6% (77th)27.0% (28th)
UConn82.0 (7th)50.5 (3rd)51.3% (2nd)33.1% (3rd)34.8% (57th)26.4% (20th)
Maryland91.3 (1st)70.3 (265th)49.0% (4th)41.2% (216th)41.2% (2nd)33.3% (257th)
Baylor81.6 (8th)54.1 (14th)48.7% (5th)32.1% (1st)33.2% (89th)27.6% (40th)
Texas A&M75.2 (34th)60.7 (79th)47.4% (10th)37.8% (71st)38.6% (8th)32.3% (210th)
N.C. State77.3 (18th)61.5 (98th)46.6% (15th)36.4% (28th)35.8% (36th)30.3% (117th)
Stanford78.4 (16th)52.7 (9th)46.6% (16th)32.6% (2nd)36.9% (26th)26.0% (13th)

According to 81alum's second point, if we prefer to play a team with an elite offense and an average defense, Maryland would actually be a team we want in our bracket rather than one to avoid. The Terrapins have a top shelf offense, 1st in points per game and top 5 in FG% and 3P%, but their defense is noticeably worse than the other teams in the table.

Statistically, UConn and Baylor are the teams we should avoid, since they look good on both offense and defense.

However, this is only a quantitative analysis and doesn't provide any context behind the numbers.

Nice! Thanks for putting that together. I notice that we're the only team in the top 30 in every category.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - PVTree - 03-09-2021

I think we have as good a shot at winning the championship since the year Jayne was hobbled in the championship game. A healthy Appel, and we win that game IMO. As long as we remain healthy for the next 4 weeks, I like our chances.

We have the inside scoring, we have the outside scoring, we can drive to the basket, and we play good defense. We are also deep...all but Emma have been prime time players at one point in their career at Stanford so far. Oh, we also have the coach to lead us.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - Spiny_Norman - 03-10-2021

(03-09-2021, 11:22 PM)PVTree Wrote:  I think we have as good a shot at winning the championship since the year Jayne was hobbled in the championship game. A healthy Appel, and we win that game IMO. As long as we remain healthy for the next 4 weeks, I like our chances.

We have the inside scoring, we have the outside scoring, we can drive to the basket, and we play good defense. We are also deep...all but Emma have been prime time players at one point in their career at Stanford so far. Oh, we also have the coach to lead us.

I thought that the 2017 team had the magic to win it all until Karlie Samuelson sprained her ankle late in the first half in the semi-final vs South Carolina. Fun to look at the roster for that team and see freshman Anna Wilson listed.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - BillBradley - 03-10-2021

I would pick Baylor and UConn as the teams that concern me most, largely because they shoot at a high % (can get hot and make a bunch of 3's), their coaches have won it all, and they have something unique about them. With Baylor, I just don't want the team to have to play against Dijonai. It brings some things into play that I'd like to avoid. With UConn, we all know - Bueckers. She's Sabrina-like in her IQ and will to win. She's the type that can put a team on her back. Mid-season I wasn't as concerned about them, but they are playing great ball. Still predicting a Stanford-UConn final!

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - Papa John - 03-10-2021

Anybody have thoughts on how the lack of homecourt/regional advantage in rounds 1 and 2 and beyond might affect this year's results? Are more early round upsets likely, perhaps even for a #1 or #2 seed?

In 2019, all four #1 seeds, all four #2 seeds, only one #3 seed and three #4 seeds made the sweet sixteen. The final four had two #1s and two #2s. In 2018 all four #1 seeds made the final four. 

I know it's a bit premature since the brackets haven't been announced, but, I'm curious what folks are expecting just due to the single neutral location.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - WBB fan - 03-10-2021

(03-10-2021, 11:37 AM)Papa John Wrote:  Anybody have thoughts on how the lack of homecourt/regional advantage in rounds 1 and 2 and beyond might affect this year's results? Are more early round upsets likely, perhaps even for a #1 or #2 seed?

In 2019, all four #1 seeds, all four #2 seeds, only one #3 seed and three #4 seeds made the sweet sixteen. The final four had two #1s and two #2s. In 2018 all four #1 seeds made the final four. 

I know it's a bit premature since the brackets haven't been announced, but, I'm curious what folks are expecting just due to the single neutral location.

For what it's worth, I think the single "neutral" opens up more 1st and 2nd round upset possibilities, and that's a good thing. I also think that teams that have played a lot of games at neutral courts or on the road -- thus experienced dealing with Covid protocols during travel -- will have an edge.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - chimera - 03-10-2021

My initial thought about the brackets was that it would be the easiest ever for the committee because they would not have to take into account geography, travel distances, home courts for worse seeds, stuff like that.  Now I think that those will help but the lack of inter-conference play combined with switching to a new metric - the NET - may make it harder to evaluate teams fairly.  I really don't know who to "fear."  I would prefer not to play Baylor due to the Carrington thing.  I don't see a way we possibly meet UConn until the F4 so not going to worry about that.  

Our defense has been excellent and our offense, while it can have rough patches, is very good.  So would we rather play a team with great O and not so great D, thinking we should be able to stifle that offense with our top defense while our O should be able to score enough even if they get more points than we generally allow, or would we rather play a team with middling O and great D, thinking we can really crush that middling O and our offense has had enough success against good defenses that we would be ok slugging it out that way?  There are plenty of teams with good O and D but not great at either, of course, but mostly those teams are not the scary ones. Teams with great O and D will be a handful that just depends on match-ups and who is hot that day.

I think our biggest worry is a team who excels inside with a very strong back to the basket post that would require a double team and maybe draw fouls on our bigs combined with enough shooters that doubling would leave us vulnerable in other places.  Then again, if we just "let" them score a bit more than we would like inside but limit their threes while we knock down threes, maybe that is not such a big deal.  Big, strong teams with great post play worry me because we don't really see that in the P-12 that much.  UCLA is not an inside team.  Onyenwere is a 3/4 who did not hurt us with post moves.  Their bigs are not special.  UA doesn't have a dominant big.  OSU has a good big in Jones but just her and she is not as good as some we could face.  Really good post players who can post up are not so common anymore.

I always worry about teams that have multiple great thee-point shooters because they can get hot no matter what you do.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - martyup - 03-10-2021

The final four -- Stanford vs Arizona  &  UCLA vs Oregon

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia...f=1&nofb=1]

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - TheFarm07 - 03-10-2021

Chimera, based on that analysis, looking at other teams, here are what challenges they may present (I haven't really watched their games so I am not sure how their forwards/centers score, whether back to the basket post ups or drives to the rim):



RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - Griffins78 - 03-10-2021

I don't think any of those teams are better than last year's Oregon Ducks and Paige Bueckers is not as good as Sabrina Ionescu.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - 81alum - 03-10-2021

(03-10-2021, 04:26 PM)Griffins78 Wrote:  I don't think any of those teams are better than last year's Oregon Ducks and Paige Bueckers is not as good as Sabrina Ionescu.
Well....that may be true, but then again, we did not do well against last year's Oregon Ducks.  Not at all well.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - mbdude - 03-10-2021

Maryland is on FS1 at 8am pst tomorrow (Thursday) big 10 tomorrow