4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - Printable Version

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4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - Row80Critic - 06-12-2021

2021 College Football Win Totals Odds - Find Win Total Future Odds (vegasinsider.com)



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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - 82lsju - 06-12-2021

the highest O/U for anyone in the conference is 9 so looks like Vegas sees no Pac-12 team in the CFP...

the four highest O/U are

11.5 for Alabama and Clemson
11 for Ohio State and Oklahoma

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - CardinalSagehen - 06-12-2021

I take the over.  

Some other teams on our schedule will not be as good as predicted, and we will be better than predicted. 

I think the offense will be good enough to keep us competitive in most games, assuming Hinton recovers and there isn’t a flurry of OL injuries.

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - old spanish trail - 06-12-2021

(06-12-2021, 02:05 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote:  I take the over.  

Some other teams on our schedule will not be as good as predicted, and we will be better than predicted. 

I think the offense will be good enough to keep us competitive in most games, assuming Hinton recovers and there isn’t a flurry of OL injuries.

Totally agree, Sagehen.

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - BostonCard - 06-12-2021

This seems like a reasonable number.  Looking at the schedule, I think we have maybe five wins in us, but I have a hard time seeing many more than that.  As always, I hope I am misunderestimating the team.

BC

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - lex24 - 06-12-2021

I was in Vegas a couple weeks ago.  Had I known this I’d bet the over. Predicting this year is tougher than ever.

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - gailtate - 06-13-2021

Four wins is what I've been predicting. This isn't pessimism, it's realism. The predictable bullishness among the faithful here is predicated almost entirely on an untried quarterback's performance and health. That's a pretty big matzoh ball hanging out there, guys. I will hope for six wins but expect four.

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - BobK - 06-13-2021

Got it. Thanks
I say 9-4. See you at the bowl game.

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - JohnR34231 - 06-13-2021

(06-13-2021, 08:27 AM)BobK Wrote:  Got it. Thanks
I say 9-4.  See you at the bowl game.

I'm saying somewhere in between 9-4 and 4-8.
At least IMO, the former is optimistic; the latter pessimistic.
Maybe 7-6?

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - Goose - 06-13-2021

From what I read here and elsewhere nobody actually has any real idea of what will happen in the next season. Everybody has potential, has some great players, and has lots of question marks. This year I think even the PAC-12 coaches don't have a real idea how their teams will perform, let alone other teams in the conference. Could be pretty exciting.

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - gailtate - 06-13-2021

(06-13-2021, 08:27 AM)BobK Wrote:  Got it. Thanks
I say 9-4.  See you at the bowl game.

A little salty today, Bobbbb?

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - needle - 06-13-2021

The truth is, the team last fall eked out wins against Kal, UCLA and Oregon State.

The Washington game showed the team's upside. Looking back at that box score, it was Austin Jones' day. He had 31 carries for 138 yards. That's the sort of peformance I really believe is repeatable in 2021. The star QB in that game was 20/30 for 252 yards--the sort of statline that's a lot easier said than done. But I believe it's at least possible McKee can get to a 60% completion percentage.

Defensively, we all know about the lack of big bodies who can play. There isn't any way to cover that up, but if the returning big guys can remain as healthy as they did in 2020, the defense should be a bit improved.

So, I'm bullish on the Stanford offense and would definitely take the over.

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - Papa John - 06-13-2021

Stanford won four true road games in successive weeks last fall. Forget successive weeks, so here's how many teams in the other power 5 conferences won four true road games *all season long:*

Pac-12: No one (only two teams even had 4 or more wins--Oregon and SC)
ACC: UND, 4-0 on the road; Miami, 4-1; 
Big 12: No one
B1G: No one
SEC: Georgia, 4-1; Alabama, 5-0; Texas A&M, 4-1

The 2020 season was an amazing feat for Stanford football, especially considering we were coming off the 2019 4-8 disaster. I'm bullish on 2021. Assuming health holds up, 7 wins at minimum.

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - Stanford2020 - 06-13-2021

(06-12-2021, 01:58 PM)82lsju Wrote:  the highest O/U for anyone in the conference is 9 so looks like Vegas sees no Pac-12 team in the CFP...

the four highest O/U are

11.5 for Alabama and Clemson
11 for Ohio State and Oklahoma

Keep in mind Vegas isn't in the business of "predicting", Vegas is in the business of making money. Lines are set where they think they can get equal action on either side of the play. If they set a PAC12 team at 11 or 11.5, 90% of bets (or more) would pound the under because the PAC12 is notorious for beating itself up. Whereas Bama, Clemson, OSU, and OU have slappy fans who will come in thinking they'll be perfect and realists will say "eh they'll lose at least one".

That said I also have the over for Stanford. K-State and Vanderbilt are both fairly favorable non-conference matchups, all be them both Power 5, and I have a hard time not seeing us win at least 3-4 of UCLA, Arizona State, Wazzu, Washington, Oregon State, and Kal. Along with sneaking one out on U$C, Oregon, or Utah in typical PAC12 fashion, four is mighty low.

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - CTcard - 06-13-2021

(06-13-2021, 09:37 AM)Goose Wrote:  From what I read here and elsewhere nobody actually has any real idea of what will happen in the next season. Everybody has potential, has some great players, and has lots of question marks. This year I think even the PAC-12 coaches don't have a real idea how their teams will perform, let alone other teams in the conference. Could be pretty exciting.

This is true, even more so than in most years. Last year was a weird, abbreviated season with relatively little predictive value. 2019 is too long ago to be very helpful. Stanford doesn't seem to be facing a lot more change over than others. Most predictions on this thread reflect the personality of the poster more than anything.

BUT ... there is one clear issue that leads to expecting a poor record. At this time, the schedule looks legitimately brutal. There's the all Power 5 OOC opponents and our two misses from the Pac 12 South are Arizona and Colorado, predicted to be the weakest teams in that half. It would be difficult for Stanford to manage to create a more difficult schedule. Who actually ends up being good or not will be at least somewhat different than expected, so I hope that plays to our favour.

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - 82lsju - 06-13-2021

(06-13-2021, 04:12 PM)Stanford2020 Wrote:  

(06-12-2021, 01:58 PM)82lsju Wrote:  the highest O/U for anyone in the conference is 9 so looks like Vegas sees no Pac-12 team in the CFP...

the four highest O/U are

11.5 for Alabama and Clemson
11 for Ohio State and Oklahoma

Keep in mind Vegas isn't in the business of "predicting", Vegas is in the business of making money. Lines are set where they think they can get equal action on either side of the play. If they set a PAC12 team at 11 or 11.5, 90% of bets (or more) would pound the under because the PAC12 is notorious for beating itself up. Whereas Bama, Clemson, OSU, and OU have slappy fans who will come in thinking they'll be perfect and realists will say "eh they'll lose at least one".

That said I also have the over for Stanford. K-State and Vanderbilt are both fairly favorable non-conference matchups, all be them both Power 5, and I have a hard time not seeing us win at least 3-4 of UCLA, Arizona State, Wazzu, Washington, Oregon State, and Kal. Along with sneaking one out on U$C, Oregon, or Utah in typical PAC12 fashion, four is mighty low.

I wonder how many people actually bet the O/U on Stanford wins for the season....

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - Goose - 06-13-2021

(06-13-2021, 07:28 PM)CTcard Wrote:  BUT ... there is one clear issue that leads to expecting a poor record. At this time, the schedule looks legitimately brutal.

Indeed this is one clear issue. We have a difficult schedule. I think another clear issue is that we don't have enough defensive linemen. Hopefully, we can make up for this a bit with outstanding linebacker play. However, if anybody just decides to pound the ball at us, I fear we will not have the DL strength to prevent the other team from controlling the ball and scoring on most possessions. Even if we have a good offense, we can't win if we can't stop the run. The good news may be that nobody in the PAC-12 has an offense that can attack inside the tackles all game long (I hope).

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - martyup - 06-13-2021

(06-13-2021, 08:27 AM)BobK Wrote:  Got it. Thanks
I say 9-4.  See you at the bowl game.

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(06-13-2021, 08:22 AM)gailtate Wrote:  Four wins is what I've been predicting. This isn't pessimism, it's realism. The predictable bullishness among the faithful here is predicated almost entirely on an untried quarterback's performance and health. That's a pretty big matzoh ball hanging out there, guys. I will hope for six wins but expect four.

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - winflop - 06-13-2021

(06-13-2021, 08:22 AM)gailtate Wrote:  Four wins is what I've been predicting. This isn't pessimism, it's realism. The predictable bullishness among the faithful here is predicated almost entirely on an untried quarterback's performance and health. That's a pretty big matzoh ball hanging out there, guys. I will hope for six wins but expect four.

I'm in the exact same spot, gailtate. Too too many question marks to expect more.

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RE: 4 football wins in 2021 says Vegas - lex24 - 06-14-2021

(06-13-2021, 11:00 PM)winflop Wrote:  

(06-13-2021, 08:22 AM)gailtate Wrote:  Four wins is what I've been predicting. This isn't pessimism, it's realism. The predictable bullishness among the faithful here is predicated almost entirely on an untried quarterback's performance and health. That's a pretty big matzoh ball hanging out there, guys. I will hope for six wins but expect four.

I'm in the exact same spot, gailtate. Too too many question marks to expect more.

Well, I guess there is no reason to play the season. …. Just kidding.  

I know on paper things look bleak.  New QB, questions abound on defense and a seemingly tough schedule.  But as Herb Caen once said:  “ The Giants look great on paper this year.  Unfortunately, they play on grass.”  So maybe the reverse holds. (Which reminds me of Spaceman Bill Lee’s response to being asked if he preferred grass or astroturf: “I dunno, I never smoked Astro turf.  This from a guy who once said his favorite play was a pop up cause it gave him time to think.) 

So many factors - not the least of which is how that schedule will actually play out.  Given the 2020 quasi season, along with the usual surprises, who knows. 

I’m neither optimistic nor pessimistic.  I simply have no clue how the season will play out.  And if I’ve every thrown a better center cut batting practice fastball for you folks…..

But hey if they can run effectively and slow down their opponents running game, who knows. I still maintain that those are the keys.
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