Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - Printable Version
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Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - Snorlax94 - 09-27-2022
First, Oregon is a very good team deserving a top 20 ranking. From watching the Wazoo game, Oregon is a very sound, well-coached program. I was particularly impressed with how calmly they weathered the Cougar’s rush out of the gates. The Ducks wisely took their field goals when that was all that was available. Their defense adjusted impressively and they largely stymied their opponent in the second half except for some ridiculous — almost unstoppable — plays. Their o line opened up some absolutely gorgeous holes for their inside running game. The blocking was so clean and tight, it looked like a model demonstration reel. And I admire Bo Nix — mature, strong-armed. I think this spring an NFL team will be giving him an opportunity.
But I also think Stanford is a much better team than the naysayers claim. The passing game — *IF* McKee isn’t on his back and *IF* the receivers aren’t tipping the balls to the opposing secondary — is an absolute MONSTER. We have an experienced o line that can read blitzes and slide their assignments, we have a strong, smart future NFL qb, we have two running backs the NFL will be giving a chance to, and we have the most monstrous array of receivers I’ve ever seen at Stanford, even more of a nightmare if EJ is healthy (and sure-handed), cause then you never know if a running back is going to line up in the slot.
The defense, though so green up front, took a big step forward against Washington and actually made some stops and showed some attitude.
IF the oline can solve its uncharacteristic maladies from the Washington game,
IF the dline can take another big step forward, IF the receivers actually catch the ball, and IF Stanford can stop having a -3 turnover
Margin — and I think they will — I say Stanford shows how much talent it has on the roster and wins in Autzen, and, if they can stay healthy, they continue to win many of their next 6 games, on their path to a bowl game.
The Men in Cardinal stun the Ducks of Oregon, 31-30.
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - JohnR34231 - 09-27-2022
(09-27-2022, 03:26 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote: First, Oregon is a very good team deserving a top 20 ranking. From watching the Wazoo game, Oregon is a very sound, well-coached program. I was particularly impressed with how calmly they weathered the Cougar’s rush out of the gates. The Ducks wisely took their field goals when that was all that was available. Their defense adjusted impressively and they largely stymied their opponent in the second half except for some ridiculous — almost unstoppable — plays. Their o line opened up some absolutely gorgeous holes for their inside running game. The blocking was so clean and tight, it looked like a model demonstration reel. And I admire Bo Nix — mature, strong-armed. I think this spring an NFL team will be giving him an opportunity.
But I also think Stanford is a much better team than the naysayers claim. The passing game — *IF* McKee isn’t on his back and *IF* the receivers aren’t tipping the balls to the opposing secondary — is an absolute MONSTER. We have an experienced o line that can read blitzes and slide their assignments, we have a strong, smart future NFL qb, we have two running backs the NFL will be giving a chance to, and we have the most monstrous array of receivers I’ve ever seen at Stanford, even more of a nightmare if EJ is healthy (and sure-handed), cause then you never know if a running back is going to line up in the slot.
The defense, though so green up front, took a big step forward against Washington and actually made some stops and showed some attitude.
IF the oline can solve its uncharacteristic maladies from the Washington game,
IF the dline can take another big step forward, IF the receivers actually catch the ball, and IF Stanford can stop having a -3 turnover
Margin — and I think they will — I say Stanford shows how much talent it has on the roster and wins in Autzen, and, if they can stay healthy, they continue to win many of their next 6 games, on their path to a bowl game.
The Men in Cardinal stun the Ducks of Oregon, 31-30.
Well, that certainly is the optimistic way of looking at things, and will probably get some LOL's from the, shall we say, less optimistic members of this board.
People who have been Stanford fans for a long time can certainly think of many instances where we weren't supposed to beat the Ducks, but we did anyway. Who knows, maybe this will be one of them.
Anyway hope springs eternal, if you will pardon the cliche.
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - Mick - 09-27-2022
(09-27-2022, 03:26 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote: First, Oregon is a very good team deserving a top 20 ranking. From watching the Wazoo game, Oregon is a very sound, well-coached program. I was particularly impressed with how calmly they weathered the Cougar’s rush out of the gates. The Ducks wisely took their field goals when that was all that was available. Their defense adjusted impressively and they largely stymied their opponent in the second half except for some ridiculous — almost unstoppable — plays. Their o line opened up some absolutely gorgeous holes for their inside running game. The blocking was so clean and tight, it looked like a model demonstration reel. And I admire Bo Nix — mature, strong-armed. I think this spring an NFL team will be giving him an opportunity.
But I also think Stanford is a much better team than the naysayers claim. The passing game — *IF* McKee isn’t on his back and *IF* the receivers aren’t tipping the balls to the opposing secondary — is an absolute MONSTER. We have an experienced o line that can read blitzes and slide their assignments, we have a strong, smart future NFL qb, we have two running backs the NFL will be giving a chance to, and we have the most monstrous array of receivers I’ve ever seen at Stanford, even more of a nightmare if EJ is healthy (and sure-handed), cause then you never know if a running back is going to line up in the slot.
The defense, though so green up front, took a big step forward against Washington and actually made some stops and showed some attitude.
IF the oline can solve its uncharacteristic maladies from the Washington game,
IF the dline can take another big step forward, IF the receivers actually catch the ball, and IF Stanford can stop having a -3 turnover
Margin — and I think they will — I say Stanford shows how much talent it has on the roster and wins in Autzen, and, if they can stay healthy, they continue to win many of their next 6 games, on their path to a bowl game.
The Men in Cardinal stun the Ducks of Oregon, 31-30.
![[Image: rosecolorglass1.jpg]](https://www.milwaukeeeyecare.com/wp-content/uploads/rosecolorglass1.jpg)
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - JohnR34231 - 09-27-2022
(09-27-2022, 06:14 AM)Mick Wrote:(09-27-2022, 03:26 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote: First, Oregon is a very good team deserving a top 20 ranking. From watching the Wazoo game, Oregon is a very sound, well-coached program. I was particularly impressed with how calmly they weathered the Cougar’s rush out of the gates. The Ducks wisely took their field goals when that was all that was available. Their defense adjusted impressively and they largely stymied their opponent in the second half except for some ridiculous — almost unstoppable — plays. Their o line opened up some absolutely gorgeous holes for their inside running game. The blocking was so clean and tight, it looked like a model demonstration reel. And I admire Bo Nix — mature, strong-armed. I think this spring an NFL team will be giving him an opportunity.
But I also think Stanford is a much better team than the naysayers claim. The passing game — *IF* McKee isn’t on his back and *IF* the receivers aren’t tipping the balls to the opposing secondary — is an absolute MONSTER. We have an experienced o line that can read blitzes and slide their assignments, we have a strong, smart future NFL qb, we have two running backs the NFL will be giving a chance to, and we have the most monstrous array of receivers I’ve ever seen at Stanford, even more of a nightmare if EJ is healthy (and sure-handed), cause then you never know if a running back is going to line up in the slot.
The defense, though so green up front, took a big step forward against Washington and actually made some stops and showed some attitude.
IF the oline can solve its uncharacteristic maladies from the Washington game,
IF the dline can take another big step forward, IF the receivers actually catch the ball, and IF Stanford can stop having a -3 turnover
Margin — and I think they will — I say Stanford shows how much talent it has on the roster and wins in Autzen, and, if they can stay healthy, they continue to win many of their next 6 games, on their path to a bowl game.
The Men in Cardinal stun the Ducks of Oregon, 31-30.
First of many.
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - msqueri - 09-27-2022
There's a lot of IF statements in the original post so I have to believe the original poster knows this is more hope than rationality.
Regarding whether we're a much better team than the naysayers claim, I imagine we all, including us naysayers, have a range of views on exactly what kind of team we have. In my view it's more or less the same level team we've had since 2019, which is to say thoroughly mediocre at best. Even if one thinks that sacks and turnovers have been so extreme that it obscures the real quality of the team, the team doesn't look good.
For what it's worth, Sagarin currently has us at #54, FEI has us at #77, SP+ has us at #80, and the PFF team grades have us at #68. That range seems right to me. I don't think this is a top 40 team that just has had a tough schedule. More likely we're a top 75 team that's had a tough schedule.
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - Phogge - 09-27-2022
It’s all in the lines. And the lines suck.
Poor protection on offense. Hardly a pass rush on defense. They have a chance against teams that have a similar pass rush because of the Stanford receivers.
Perhaps Bailey will get a sack or two along the way but the DL and for Sam’s sake the other edge guys have no push. Anderson hardly ever blitzes his ILB’s (or just LB’s for Sam). Was Penix even touched?
And it’s going to be even worse in 2023.
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - gailtate - 09-27-2022
(09-27-2022, 03:26 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote: First, Oregon is a very good team deserving a top 20 ranking. From watching the Wazoo game, Oregon is a very sound, well-coached program. I was particularly impressed with how calmly they weathered the Cougar’s rush out of the gates. The Ducks wisely took their field goals when that was all that was available. Their defense adjusted impressively and they largely stymied their opponent in the second half except for some ridiculous — almost unstoppable — plays. Their o line opened up some absolutely gorgeous holes for their inside running game. The blocking was so clean and tight, it looked like a model demonstration reel. And I admire Bo Nix — mature, strong-armed. I think this spring an NFL team will be giving him an opportunity.
But I also think Stanford is a much better team than the naysayers claim. The passing game — *IF* McKee isn’t on his back and *IF* the receivers aren’t tipping the balls to the opposing secondary — is an absolute MONSTER. We have an experienced o line that can read blitzes and slide their assignments, we have a strong, smart future NFL qb, we have two running backs the NFL will be giving a chance to, and we have the most monstrous array of receivers I’ve ever seen at Stanford, even more of a nightmare if EJ is healthy (and sure-handed), cause then you never know if a running back is going to line up in the slot.
The defense, though so green up front, took a big step forward against Washington and actually made some stops and showed some attitude.
IF the oline can solve its uncharacteristic maladies from the Washington game,
IF the dline can take another big step forward, IF the receivers actually catch the ball, and IF Stanford can stop having a -3 turnover
Margin — and I think they will — I say Stanford shows how much talent it has on the roster and wins in Autzen, and, if they can stay healthy, they continue to win many of their next 6 games, on their path to a bowl game.
The Men in Cardinal stun the Ducks of Oregon, 31-30.
You sound just like Shaw.
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - msqueri - 09-27-2022
(09-27-2022, 07:09 AM)Phogge Wrote: It’s all in the lines. And the lines suck.
Poor protection on offense. Hardly a pass rush on defense. They have a chance against teams that have a similar pass rush because of the Stanford receivers.
Perhaps Bailey will get a sack or two along the way but the DL and for Sam’s sake the other edge guys have no push. Anderson hardly ever blitzes his ILB’s (or just LB’s for Sam). Was Penix even touched?
And it’s going to be even worse in 2023.
I do not think the offensive line sucks. The Washington game came against great edge defenders (ZTF the sack champion of the Pac-12 before his injury, Trice and Martin two of the conference's emerging stars this season, Smalls a former 5-star recruit) and a pass defense PFF has judged to be #12 in America so far, and they got to play against a Stanford team missing both starting tackles for a chunk of the game and having neither starting tackle healthy all game (Hinton out, Rouse hobbled for the half of the game he played). Very rash if anybody is concluding the quality of Stanford's offensive line based on one game against the best pass rush we face all season (nobody else even top 20 on PFF and UCLA and Notre Dame the only ones even top 40) without our tackles.
For what it's worth, PFF currently has Stanford as #80 in pass blocking and #21 in run blocking. That does not suck. If one figures that Rouse + Hinton > Miller + McLaughlin (which is clearly the case, let's see what health has in store for us) and that things get easier in terms of opponents (PFF has Oregon as the #120 pass rush), it's easy to see OL play getting better. I continue to think this is a relatively good OL by Stanford's recent standards and has a chance to be our best in seven years.
Don't get me wrong, the TEAM sucks. But offensive line is quite possibly the best thing about the entire team. A conservative take is it's a top three unit on the team (along with QB and WR), though OL has certainly played better for us this season than WR has.
Nothing to quibble with on your take on our defense's pass rush. It's bleak. I have no faith in Lance Anderson-led defenses, now or going forward.
Agree with you next season looks even worse than this season. I'd have to be very surprised by key players deciding to return who I think are gonzo and/or significant coaching staff changes to think there's a prayer 2023 won't be one of the worst Power Five teams in America. Again.
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - gailtate - 09-27-2022
(09-27-2022, 07:38 AM)msqueri Wrote:(09-27-2022, 07:09 AM)Phogge Wrote: It’s all in the lines. And the lines suck.
Poor protection on offense. Hardly a pass rush on defense. They have a chance against teams that have a similar pass rush because of the Stanford receivers.
Perhaps Bailey will get a sack or two along the way but the DL and for Sam’s sake the other edge guys have no push. Anderson hardly ever blitzes his ILB’s (or just LB’s for Sam). Was Penix even touched?
And it’s going to be even worse in 2023.
I do not think the offensive line sucks. The Washington game came against great edge defenders (ZTF the sack champion of the Pac-12 before his injury, Trice and Martin two of the conference's emerging stars this season, Smalls a former 5-star recruit) and a pass defense PFF has judged to be #12 in America so far, and they got to play against a Stanford team missing both starting tackles for a chunk of the game and having neither starting tackle healthy all game (Hinton out, Rouse hobbled for the half of the game he played). Very rash if anybody is concluding the quality of Stanford's offensive line based on one game against the best pass rush we face all season (nobody else even top 20 on PFF and UCLA and Notre Dame the only ones even top 40) without our tackles.
For what it's worth, PFF currently has Stanford as #80 in pass blocking and #21 in run blocking. That does not suck. If one figures that Rouse + Hinton > Miller + McLaughlin (which is clearly the case, let's see what health has in store for us) and that things get easier in terms of opponents (PFF has Oregon as the #120 pass rush), it's easy to see OL play getting better. I continue to think this is a relatively good OL by Stanford's recent standards and has a chance to be our best in seven years.
Don't get me wrong, the TEAM sucks. But offensive line is quite possibly the best thing about the entire team. A conservative take is it's a top three unit on the team (along with QB and WR), though OL has certainly played better for us this season than WR has.
Nothing to quibble with on your take on our defense's pass rush. It's bleak. I have no faith in Lance Anderson-led defenses, now or going forward.
Agree with you next season looks even worse than this season. I'd have to be very surprised by key players deciding to return who I think are gonzo and/or significant coaching staff changes to think there's a prayer 2023 won't be one of the worst Power Five teams in America. Again.
So which is it: McKee's inability to elude the rush or an O-line that can't protect him? How long before this guy sustains a serious injury? And if the D-line were a town it would be declared a disaster area.
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - cardcrimson - 09-27-2022
I agree with much of what Snorlax posted. I think the Ducks will take us lightly, as well. That's why I have us only losing by 10. . . .
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - Phogge - 09-27-2022
The interior OL is a sieve. And Crimson I don't think that the Ducks will take lightly a team that beat them last year.
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - bl82 - 09-27-2022
Here is one template: Stanford 49, Oregon 42 (2001)
https://gostanford.com/news/2001/10/20/208088169.aspx
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - cardcrimson - 09-27-2022
(09-27-2022, 09:45 AM)Phogge Wrote: The interior OL is a sieve. And Crimson I don't think that the Ducks will take lightly a team that beat them last year.Every team in the conference is taking us lightly. So we have that going for us, which is nice. . . .
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - msqueri - 09-27-2022
(09-27-2022, 08:38 AM)gailtate Wrote:(09-27-2022, 07:38 AM)msqueri Wrote:(09-27-2022, 07:09 AM)Phogge Wrote: It’s all in the lines. And the lines suck.
Poor protection on offense. Hardly a pass rush on defense. They have a chance against teams that have a similar pass rush because of the Stanford receivers.
Perhaps Bailey will get a sack or two along the way but the DL and for Sam’s sake the other edge guys have no push. Anderson hardly ever blitzes his ILB’s (or just LB’s for Sam). Was Penix even touched?
And it’s going to be even worse in 2023.
I do not think the offensive line sucks. The Washington game came against great edge defenders (ZTF the sack champion of the Pac-12 before his injury, Trice and Martin two of the conference's emerging stars this season, Smalls a former 5-star recruit) and a pass defense PFF has judged to be #12 in America so far, and they got to play against a Stanford team missing both starting tackles for a chunk of the game and having neither starting tackle healthy all game (Hinton out, Rouse hobbled for the half of the game he played). Very rash if anybody is concluding the quality of Stanford's offensive line based on one game against the best pass rush we face all season (nobody else even top 20 on PFF and UCLA and Notre Dame the only ones even top 40) without our tackles.
For what it's worth, PFF currently has Stanford as #80 in pass blocking and #21 in run blocking. That does not suck. If one figures that Rouse + Hinton > Miller + McLaughlin (which is clearly the case, let's see what health has in store for us) and that things get easier in terms of opponents (PFF has Oregon as the #120 pass rush), it's easy to see OL play getting better. I continue to think this is a relatively good OL by Stanford's recent standards and has a chance to be our best in seven years.
Don't get me wrong, the TEAM sucks. But offensive line is quite possibly the best thing about the entire team. A conservative take is it's a top three unit on the team (along with QB and WR), though OL has certainly played better for us this season than WR has.
Nothing to quibble with on your take on our defense's pass rush. It's bleak. I have no faith in Lance Anderson-led defenses, now or going forward.
Agree with you next season looks even worse than this season. I'd have to be very surprised by key players deciding to return who I think are gonzo and/or significant coaching staff changes to think there's a prayer 2023 won't be one of the worst Power Five teams in America. Again.
So which is it: McKee's inability to elude the rush or an O-line that can't protect him? How long before this guy sustains a serious injury? And if the D-line were a town it would be declared a disaster area.
Fundamentally I think sacks are more of a QB stat than fans appreciate. Most fans think of it as 100 percent an OL stat and I think responsibility is much more evenly divided than that. In McKee's case, I think he bears a lot of the responsibility for the sacks he's suffered throughout his career. His pocket presence is awful. He's supposed to be able to step up/around the pocket as he feels the rush but he runs into sacks more often than he evades them. For what it's worth, one of the components of Total QBR is "expected points added on sacks with low leverage plays down-weighted," which is to say avoiding sacks. This year McKee ranks 109th of 126 QBs in that stat. Last year he was 83rd of 123. By comparison, Mills in 2020 was 44th of 124, Mills in 2019 was 9th of 121, Costello in 2018 was 97th of 127, nobody qualified for Total QBR in 2017 or 2016, Hogan was 77th of 128 in 2015, Hogan was 73rd of 129 in 2014, Hogan was 46th of 128 in 2013, Nunes was 11th of 119 in 2012 (an important thing he did right to give us a chance!), Luck was 39th of 122 in 2011, Luck was 13th of 117 in 2010, Luck was 4th of 118 in 2009, Pritchard was 45th of 112 in 2008, Pritchard was 91st of 118 in 2007, nobody qualified for Total QBR in 2006, Edwards was 101st of 115 in 2005, and Edwards was 81st of 112 in 2004.
There may be ways in which this stat struggles to separate OL play from QB play, I don't know, but I think we have ample statistical and eyeball evidence that McKee is horrible in the pocket. I'm a big fan of literally everything else he does, but this is a big problem and needs to be accounted for when people are assessing the offensive line. For what it's worth, PFF grades Nugent and Rouse as good pass blockers, Hinton and Hornibrook as mediocre pass blockers, Rogers as a sub-par pass blocker, and Miller as a liability pass blocker. In his emergency action against Washington McLaughlin was off the charts disastrous. Given Rogers (playing because of Bragg retirement), Miller (playing tackle because Hinton injury), and McLaughlin (forced in to action when Rouse got hurt) being the weak links, it seems rash to write off the OL. If Rogers improves and/or Hinton comes back, Saturday will not have been representative. And again, it came against the best pass rush we face all season.
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - gailtate - 09-27-2022
This one's been on the Duck locker room bulletin board for a year. There's a big bullseye hanging on Stanford's backside.
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - Phogge - 09-27-2022
(09-27-2022, 10:42 AM)gailtate Wrote: This one's been on the Duck locker room bulletin board for a year. There's a big bullseye hanging on Stanford's backside.
About 10 more big backsides needed on the OL.
Matt, I agree about McKee. Statues don't succeed in the NFL.
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - gocard14 - 09-27-2022
I wonder how much of our sack issue is related to the new offensive scheme.
The "slow mesh" seems to suck in defenders and has led to some nice plays. But it also means that the by the time Mckee decides to throw he has been standing dead still for 2 full seconds, which is an eternity, prior to even starting to pull the ball down to throw.
It means the Oline has to sustain their blocks, which we had trouble with against UW. It also puts Mckee at a disadvantage, as its a lot harder to elude a rusher when you are starting at a standstill with your feet planted in the slow mesh rather then moving in your dropback, climbing the pocket, etc. Finally it may be processing overload. During the mesh he is reading the D to make the call to throw, managing the mesh/handoff or lack therof, and may have less situational awareness for the pass rush then on a standard play.
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - old spanish trail - 09-27-2022
It seemed to me that Wash crashed the slow mesh rpo, and there was not really much of a pocket. There were a number of old fashioned pass formations Saturday where McKee did not pull the trigger fast enuf, or just turtled, rather than escaping. I don't know whether he can improve his escapability. It will be interesting, given Matt's analysis re the DL's of Wash and Oregon, to see whether the slow mesh works vs Oregon. If not.............ditch it. I fear McKee is not the QB to implement this "new" system.
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - PAsportsfan - 09-27-2022
HAHA
It's okay to dream...as long as you are prepared for reality.
RE: Stanford is Better than the Naysayers Say, and They Will Beat Oregon - Jamesy - 09-27-2022
I would be more optimistic if our o-line was healthy. However, we're down Bragg, Hinton is questionable and Rouse left the last game with an injury so not if he'll be able to go. Crazier things have happened though I wouldn't count on it with this team.