Bowl eligible? - Printable Version

Bowl eligible? - Printable Version

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Bowl eligible? - CardinalSagehen - 09-23-2024

If you're superstitious, stop reading now.

Okay, kids - two down, four to go. Stating the obvious, our bowl prospects have improved dramatically after Syracuse! Based on rankings and FPI, we will be underdogs in all of our remaining games except Wake Forest and maybe NC State or San Jose State. However, we are only big underdogs in three of our remaining games - the rest are potentially winnable in the way that Syracuse was winnable.

The remaining schedule can be grouped as follows:
A. Teams roughly in our ballpark - SMU, Cal, NC State, VA Tech, San Jose State (just took a strong WSU team to 2OT)
B. Teams very materially better than us - Louisville, Clemson, Notre Dame
C. Teams materially worse than us - Wake Forest

Interestingly, ESPN's FPI now predicts the range of our win total as 5.0 to 7.0, despite placing us at #15 out of 17 ACC teams (or #16/18 if you include Notre Dame).

I see three slightly different paths to bowl eligibility:
1. Win 3/5 in group A, 0/3 in group B, and beat Wake.
2. Win 2/5 in group A, one big upset in group B, and beat Wake.
3. Win 3/5 in group A, one big upset in group B, and lose to a motivated Wake team.

Based on the deep flaws of our team (most notably, OL and QB, although I give Daniels credit as a gamer and a leader), I do not expect more than 5 wins in the likeliest case. But at least we have a decent chance! A bowl for this team would be a phenomenal outcome and a big step on the road to a turnaround.

RE: Bowl eligible? - martyup - 09-23-2024

Also, winning 4 of 5 in group A.

RE: Bowl eligible? - chrisk - 09-23-2024

Stanford has the advantage of playing in a conference with only 3 ranked teams. SEC has 9, Big 10 has 6, and Big 12 has 5.

One wrinkle is that they will be fighting for positioning with the old Pac-12 teams for the old Pac-12 bowls. Positioning vs ACC teams won't really matter, it just the number of wins.

RE: Bowl eligible? - fullmetal - 09-23-2024

I'll be happy to be competitive with the upper echelon of the ACC (e.g. to have a shot at winning every game, to never be out of the game). I don't want Syracuse to be a flash in the pan. That probably puts us at bowl eligibility, but I won't take anything for granted. The trend is already outperforming expectations.

RE: Bowl eligible? - Mick - 09-24-2024

Stanford is 2-1 against the spread so far. Might turn into a decent, bowl-eligible year.

RE: Bowl eligible? - SamuelMcF - 09-24-2024

(09-24-2024, 05:11 AM)Mick Wrote: Stanford is 2-1 against the spread so far. Might turn into a decent, bowl-eligible year.

This depends what the rest of the spreads (like CLEMSON -22) are.

RE: Bowl eligible? - Mick - 09-24-2024

(09-24-2024, 08:53 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote:
(09-24-2024, 05:11 AM)Mick Wrote: Stanford is 2-1 against the spread so far. Might turn into a decent, bowl-eligible year.

This depends what the rest of the spreads (like CLEMSON -22) are.

Or USC -41...
Stanford vs USC 2007 Highlights - Biggest Upset in College Football History (youtube.com)
When Jim Harbaugh, Richard Sherman, Stanford pulled off biggest upset in CFB history - ESPN
2007 Stanford vs. USC football game - Wikipedia

Or USC -11
Final: Stanford 55, USC 21 - ESPN - Pac-12 Blog- ESPN
What's.
Your.
Deal...

RE: Bowl eligible? - Row80Critic - 09-24-2024

Probably getting ahead of ourselves after one last-second FBS win. But hey, hope springs eternal so I googled what bowls might be in play after the move to the ACC. Turns out the bowls are just treating all the former Pac 12 schools as if they were still in the PAC 12. So if anyone (beuller, beuller?) was worried they may have taken their last December trip to El Paso, fear not. Sun Bowl press release below....

PAC-12 LEGACY SCHOOLS TO PLAY IN PAC-12 BOWL GAMES - Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl | December 31, 2024 | El Paso, Texas

RE: Bowl eligible? - ADPinWDC - 09-28-2024

The Cinderella Scenario is... we push Cal into the Bay for our FIFTH win.
And then handle SJST to close it out.

RE: Bowl eligible? - chrisk - 09-28-2024

(09-24-2024, 10:39 AM)Row80Critic Wrote: Probably getting ahead of ourselves after one last-second FBS win. But hey, hope springs eternal so I googled what bowls might be in play after the move to the ACC. Turns out the bowls are just treating all the former Pac 12 schools as if they were still in the PAC 12. So if anyone (beuller, beuller?) was worried they may have taken their last December trip to El Paso, fear not. Sun Bowl press release below....

PAC-12 LEGACY SCHOOLS TO PLAY IN PAC-12 BOWL GAMES - Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl | December 31, 2024 | El Paso, Texas

Would the Sun Bowl pick Stanford to play an ACC team? Probably not if they already played.

RE: Bowl eligible? - d4cohn - 09-28-2024

(09-23-2024, 10:42 AM)CardinalSagehen Wrote: If you're superstitious, stop reading now.

Okay, kids - two down, four to go. Stating the obvious, our bowl prospects have improved dramatically after Syracuse! Based on rankings and FPI, we will be underdogs in all of our remaining games except Wake Forest and maybe NC State or San Jose State. However, we are only big underdogs in three of our remaining games - the rest are potentially winnable in the way that Syracuse was winnable.

The remaining schedule can be grouped as follows:
A. Teams roughly in our ballpark - SMU, Cal, NC State, VA Tech, San Jose State (just took a strong WSU team to 2OT)
B. Teams very materially better than us - Louisville, Clemson, Notre Dame
C. Teams materially worse than us - Wake Forest

Interestingly, ESPN's FPI now predicts the range of our win total as 5.0 to 7.0, despite placing us at #15 out of 17 ACC teams (or #16/18 if you include Notre Dame).

I see three slightly different paths to bowl eligibility:
1. Win 3/5 in group A, 0/3 in group B, and beat Wake.
2. Win 2/5 in group A, one big upset in group B, and beat Wake.
3. Win 3/5 in group A, one big upset in group B, and lose to a motivated Wake team.

Based on the deep flaws of our team (most notably, OL and QB, although I give Daniels credit as a gamer and a leader), I do not expect more than 5 wins in the likeliest case. But at least we have a decent chance! A bowl for this team would be a phenomenal outcome and a big step on the road to a turnaround.

Hopefully outgaining Clemson on their own field through nearly three quarters show this team can compete with anyone remaining on the schedule. Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois at home. Louisville is not miles better than Stanford (particularly on defense).

RE: Bowl eligible? - martyup - 09-28-2024

[Image: 588a14e4-b9b3-41c5-86ca-163656074022_text.gif]

RE: Bowl eligible? - d4cohn - 09-28-2024

(09-28-2024, 07:40 PM)martyup Wrote:

Your gif didn't show up Marty. Curious what you had for us.

RE: Bowl eligible? - CardinalSagehen - 09-28-2024

Now we know the delta between this team and a bowl-eligible record.

A quarterback.

Average power conference quarterbacking would have us in a bowl game. I enjoy watching Daniels run the ball, and I wish him a speedy recovery. He’s a terrible decision-maker and lacks accuracy.

My hope is to see Elijah Brown as soon as he’s healthy, and I believe we will.

RE: Bowl eligible? - ADPinWDC - 09-29-2024

Bowl eligible from 2-2?
Need a win in PA over VATech, up next. We are not favored, only 40% likely.
NDAM in South Bend is 95% likely to beat us.
SMU is looking good at 4-1, favored 75% over STAN, having lost by just a FG to ranked BYU.
Take down WAKE in PA, the only remaining game where we are favored. 70%
That takes us to 4W-4L... if we beat VTEC. So, at best we need to beat both CAL and SJST to reach a bowl.
Visiting NCST, we rate less than 40% likely to pull the upset on the road.

The last three games all take place in the Bay Area: But, we are not favored for any of them.
LOUV carries a 80% chance of beating us in PA, and they look like a solid team, despite a tough loss @NDAM.
@ CAL, we face only a 30% chance of gaining the Axe. Beating CAL would give us 5-6. Lose at Cal, we fall to 4-7.
Even with SJST, the analysts today (Shaky QB play) say Spartans can best us 53%-47%. Coin flip.
The Defense has come along better than expected. We need a QB.

AND, more than likely CAL will come into Big Game also needing a win to get to a Bowl. They visit SMU to finish the season.
But, I predict they lose the rest of their games... and, they host potent MIAM next week in Strawberry Canyon for an After Dark game, 10:30pm ET on ESPN.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/25/california-golden-bears

RE: Bowl eligible? - fullmetal - 09-29-2024

So...do we redshirt Elijah Brown and consign ourselves to no bowl? Or do we burn his redshirt and give the team a fighting chance? #WhatWouldTroyTaylorDo

RE: Bowl eligible? - Goose - 09-29-2024

(09-29-2024, 08:19 PM)fullmetal Wrote: So...do we redshirt Elijah Brown and consign ourselves to no bowl? Or do we burn his redshirt and give the team a fighting chance? #WhatWouldTroyTaylorDo

First of all making that decision assumes he will be medically able to play soon enough to make it an issue. Even when he is adequately healed it may take a couple of weeks to get back to being ready to play. Right now he has played in 1 game. He gets 3 more "for free". We have 8 games remaining.

IMO TT will have to decide when and if Brown gives us a better chance to win given the rest of the team we have. It is important to remember that Daniels contributes significantly in the running game both on designed runs and scrambles. Brown (allegedly) is not a statue but also isn't nearly the runner Daniels is. While I am almost sure TT is quite painfully aware of Daniels's limitations Brown may also have some that must be considered. I am guessing that at least 3 of the remaining 8 games will have been played before Brown is ready to play again, and probably 4. If that is the case it would be possible to play Brown for 3 games and then decide if he plays against SJSU. If Brown is ready to play against Wake Forest it becomes more complex. I am guessing that if a bowl game probably isn't in the mix after Brown has played three more games he definitely should be (and will be) redshirted. If there is a possible bowl game, it gets more complicated.

RE: Bowl eligible? - martyup - 09-29-2024

The way players are bolting for greener pastures faster than sh*t through a goose, it would be unwise to redshirt a player capable of immediately helping the team.

RE: Bowl eligible? - JeffInCorvallis - 09-29-2024

(09-29-2024, 09:12 PM)martyup Wrote: The way players are bolting for greener pastures faster than sh*t through a goose, it would be unwise to redshirt a player capable of immediately helping the team.

If Brown is physically ready to play he has to at least see the field. Whether he starts right away is a decision for TT to make, but if he's riding the bench any number of schools can come along and say he'll be their number 1 QB if he enters the portal. I know it's weird but that's how college football is working now.

RE: Bowl eligible? - newguy - 09-29-2024

in my opinion, Taylor should not consider redshirting Brown unless his injury keeps him out until Senior Day (Louisville game).