Outside Topic Giants/Niners 2022 thread

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RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Mick - 01-23-2022

They got rid of DeForest Buckner for cap reasons, they'll have no problem getting rid of Garoppolo to pay other players on the team. They still need to shore up their secondary.

Couple of interesting points:

1. Rodgers' 0-4 playoff record against the 49ers is the worst by any single NFL quarterback since 1950.

2. Not sure when was the last time the 49ers blocked both a punt and a field goal attempt in the same game, but the last time it happened in the playoffs was 34 years ago when Buffalo did it in 1988.

3. Saw a TV stat that showed that Garoppolo's passer rating was 27 (or something like that) in the first three quarters and 95 in the 4th quarter. I know he only threw one interception, but I counted at least four passes that could have been intercepted.

4. Niners have won six of seven in a row, starting with a road win over Cincinnati (now in the AFC championship game), and culminating with road wins at Los Angeles, at Dallas and at Green Bay marred only by a three point loss at Tennessee. Yikes.

5. Whether the Rams or the Buccaneers win today (I think it's the Bucs, hope it's the Rams), it will be an interesting story. If it's the Bucs, it's Garoppolo vs. Tom Terrific Brady. If it's the Rams, it's a chance for Shanahan to extend his unbeaten streak over the Rams to 7-0.

I think there's no way Garoppolo comes back next year. They need to start monetizing the Trey Lance investment. He improved a lot during his single complete game appearance, they have a strong defense and strong surrounding players. They might do the same thing as this year, start 3-5, then win seven in a row.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Giants - 01-23-2022

(01-23-2022, 11:03 AM)Mick Wrote: They got rid of DeForest Buckner for cap reasons, they'll have no problem getting rid of Garoppolo to pay other players on the team. They still need to shore up their secondary.

Couple of interesting points:

1. Rodgers' 0-4 playoff record against the 49ers is the worst by any single NFL quarterback since 1950.

2. Not sure when was the last time the 49ers blocked both a punt and a field goal attempt in the same game, but the last time it happened in the playoffs was 34 years ago when Buffalo did it in 1988.

3. Saw a TV stat that showed that Garoppolo's passer rating was 27 (or something like that) in the first three quarters and 95 in the 4th quarter. I know he only threw one interception, but I counted at least four passes that could have been intercepted.

4. Niners have won seven in a row, starting with a road win over Cincinnati (now in the AFC championship game), and culminating with road wins at Los Angeles, at Dallas and at Green Bay. Yikes.

5. Whether the Rams or the Buccaneers win today (I think it's the Bucs, hope it's the Rams), it will be an interesting story. If it's the Bucs, it's Garoppolo vs. Tom Terrific Brady. If it's the Rams, it's a chance for Shanahan to extend his unbeaten streak over the Rams to 7-0.

I think there's no way Garoppolo comes back next year. They need to start monetizing the Trey Lance investment. He improved a lot during his single complete game appearance, they have a strong defense and strong surrounding players. They might do the same thing as this year, start 3-5, then win seven in a row.

SF lost to Tennessee a couple weeks after beating Cincinnati.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 01-23-2022

Hey Mick, have you seen the list of FA corners? Plenty but nobody stands out. They got lucky with one season from Verrett. Absolutely can't count on him coming back again.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - DC 86 - 01-23-2022

(01-23-2022, 11:03 AM)Mick Wrote: Saw a TV stat that showed that Garoppolo's passer rating was 27 (or something like that) in the first three quarters and 95 in the 4th quarter. I know he only threw one interception, but I counted at least four passes that could have been intercepted.

His rating in the first three quarters was hurt by a bunch of drops, including a brutal one by Kittle, but at the same time he threw two outs to the right sideline that should have been guaranteed pick-sixes but miraculously got through.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Mick - 01-23-2022

(01-23-2022, 12:19 PM)Phogge Wrote: Hey Mick, have you seen the list of FA corners? Plenty but nobody stands out. They got lucky with one season from Verrett. Absolutely can't count on him coming back again.

Agreed. Best right now is Stephon Gilmore, IMHO. He's 31, was almost cut at the start of the year, dealt for a 6th round pick. Durability issues, scheme fit. Opposing QBs have a 34.3 rating when they throw in his direction.

There are quite a few top WRs, if we plan to go that route. Davonte Adams, who is likely gone given that the Packers will be $40 mms. over the cap at the start of next season. Chris Godwin might be a bargain...torn ACL late in 2021, but was headed for a $20 mms. deal. Maybe had for cheap. He's just 25, averaged 83 receptions for 1,100 yards over past three seasons. After that a dropoff to Allen Robinson of the Bears.

As for cornerbacks, J.C. Jackson of the New England Patriots was second in the NFL with 8 INTs, but with the most yardage at 92 yards. Verrett and Witherspoon are availablem FWLIW...

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 01-23-2022

Niners have ridden the Witherspoon pony before. The Josh Norman lesson should keep them off Gilmore.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - DC 86 - 01-23-2022

(01-23-2022, 05:30 PM)Phogge Wrote: Niners have ridden the Witherspoon pony before. The Josh Norman lesson should keep them off Gilmore.

If you believe PFF's grades then the top free agent cornerbacks are J.C. Jackson, D.J. Reed, Stephon Gilmore, Mike Hughes and Casey Hayward.

However, Jackson is very likely to be franchise tagged or extended (by NE), Reed is unlikely to return to SF and Gilmore is 31 and a major inquiry risk.

Cornerback is a volatile position with a long history of overpaid, free agent busts. The only reason that Hayward is available is excuse he was so awful for the Chargers two years ago that the Raiders only offered him a one year deal last year. Will he continue his good form or revert to 2020 form? he's 32 years old.

Carlton Davis is a young, attractive option but like Jackson he is very likely to be tagged or extended (by TB). Teams prioritize this position and lock up consistent players coming off their first contracts. Charvarious Ward is very good fit for SF's defense but will have many suitors.

The 49ers will need to get lucky in free agency and/or the draft to improve at this position but it's not going to be easy, any corners (especially outside corners) that teams allow to reach unrestricted free agency are going to have age, injury or performance question marks.

(01-23-2022, 04:43 PM)Mick Wrote: There are quite a few top WRs, if we plan to go that route. Davonte Adams, who is likely gone given that the Packers will be $40 mms. over the cap at the start of next season. Chris Godwin might be a bargain...torn ACL late in 2021, but was headed for a $20 mms. deal. Maybe had for cheap. He's just 25, averaged 83 receptions for 1,100 yards over past three seasons. After that a dropoff to Allen Robinson of the Bears.

Adams: Palo Alto High School man, going to get paid $25 million+ per year, maybe even $30 million/year in the unlikely event he isn't franchise tagged, seems as if SF should spend that sort of money elsewhere.

Godwin (despite injury) and Robinson won't be cheap either.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 01-23-2022

If Adams is worth $30 mill then Kupp is worth $40 mill.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - DC 86 - 01-23-2022

(01-23-2022, 06:19 PM)Phogge Wrote: If Adams is worth $30 mill then Kupp is worth $40 mill.

Kupp may be my favorite player in the NFL. Different types of receivers, but he and Adams are comparable. The two best receivers in the league at the moment with Hopkins injured. Deebo's a different type of player, but incredible.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Giants - 01-24-2022

(01-23-2022, 06:45 PM)DC 86 Wrote:
(01-23-2022, 06:19 PM)Phogge Wrote: If Adams is worth $30 mill then Kupp is worth $40 mill.

Kupp may be my favorite player in the NFL. Different types of receivers, but he and Adams are comparable. The two best receivers in the league at the moment with Hopkins injured. Deebo's a different type of player, but incredible.

I’ll take Ja’Maar Chase and Tyreek Hill over Adams and Kupp.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Mick - 01-24-2022

Gausman says the Giants never made him an offer. He signed for $110 million for five years.

https://twitter.com/KevinGausman/status/1485349317741269005?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1485349317741269005%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Faroundthefoghorn.com%2Fposts%2Fformer-sf-giants-pitcher-sets-record-straight-on-foray-into-free-agency-01ft4b4hzdcs

lex24 - lex24 - 01-24-2022

(01-24-2022, 12:28 PM)Mick Wrote: Gausman says the Giants never made him an offer. He signed for $110 million for five years.

https://twitter.com/KevinGausman/status/1485349317741269005?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1485349317741269005%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Faroundthefoghorn.com%2Fposts%2Fformer-sf-giants-pitcher-sets-record-straight-on-foray-into-free-agency-01ft4b4hzdcs

Wow. That is concerning. Giants ain’t gonna compete by being cheap. Don’t know if I’d have paid him $110 for 5. But I would have taken a shot at signing.

RE: lex24 - Giants - 01-24-2022

(01-24-2022, 08:59 PM)lex24 Wrote:
(01-24-2022, 12:28 PM)Mick Wrote: Gausman says the Giants never made him an offer. He signed for $110 million for five years.

https://twitter.com/KevinGausman/status/1485349317741269005?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1485349317741269005%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Faroundthefoghorn.com%2Fposts%2Fformer-sf-giants-pitcher-sets-record-straight-on-foray-into-free-agency-01ft4b4hzdcs

Wow. That is concerning. Giants ain’t gonna compete by being cheap. Don’t know if I’d have paid him $110 for 5. But I would have taken a shot at signing.

IMO, $110 for 5 was a big overpayment. No surprise there since overpayments are part of the free agent signing process. You generally receive a fair return on the front half of the contract but take a big hit on the back half. I believe Gausman fits that profile. Therefore, I believe Zaidi made the right call. He isn’t hoarding money because he is frugal. He is just looking for that unique someone who he thinks will provide value over the length of the contract (good luck, Farhan…).

RE: Giants/Niners 2022 thread - BobK - 01-25-2022

Extremely disappointed that we didn’t ever try to sign our best pitcher.

RE: lex24 - teejers1 - 01-25-2022

(01-23-2022, 09:18 AM)lex24 Wrote:
(01-22-2022, 10:53 PM)teejers1 Wrote: Only watched Q4, but my favorite play was by the coaching staff: to call a RUN on third and 7 with about a minute left and GB with no timeouts left (not sure why GB called those two timeouts - going 80 yards in those conditions with 0 timeouts and about 30 seconds? Extremely unlikely, and you want a TO left if for no other reason than to potentially get in head of opposing PK). Calling a run there guaranteed the 'Niners would go OT as a worse case scenario. Shanahan may be learning. BTW, noticed they called a timeout before ultimately running that play, but it looked like the same formation pre and post timeout. It wouldn't surprise me if somebody had to persuade somebody that a running play was the right call. It was. Good for Shanahan; good for the 'Niners.

P.S. I heard on TV that Burrow was sacked 9 times and Cincy still one. That is mind-boggling . . .

Nothing surprising about the run call. Pass game struggled on a host of fronts. Receivers struggled catching the ball, Compton was getting smoked all night, pressure on JG consistent. Field was getting dicey. GB was out of time outs. So if they don’t make it, they have no time to get in FG range. Finally, get the ball to your best player in that situation. He did.

It was the right call, for sure. And that's why it was my favorite. On prior occasions, Shanahan has made the wrong call because . . . well, I'll just assume it was because he did not measure risk/reward appropriately. He's had a few of those, starting several years ago, iirc, with decision to call 3 pass plays against Seattle late in Q4 or OT, when the Seahawks had no timeouts left. Three INCs ==> no time off the clock and ==> Wilson leading team to game-winning points on a drive that NEVER should have happened.

[And btw, Jimmy had completed a couple massive passes in snowy Green Bay before that third down running play . . . so color me a bit worried at the time that Shanahan would go to the well one more time].

RE: Giants/Niners 2022 thread - Phogge - 01-25-2022

Too much for Gausman and in the second half Webb was the best pitcher in the league.

RE: lex24 - DC 86 - 01-25-2022

(01-24-2022, 11:12 PM)Giants Wrote:
(01-24-2022, 08:59 PM)lex24 Wrote:
(01-24-2022, 12:28 PM)Mick Wrote: Gausman says the Giants never made him an offer. He signed for $110 million for five years.

https://twitter.com/KevinGausman/status/1485349317741269005?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1485349317741269005%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Faroundthefoghorn.com%2Fposts%2Fformer-sf-giants-pitcher-sets-record-straight-on-foray-into-free-agency-01ft4b4hzdcs

Wow. That is concerning. Giants ain’t gonna compete by being cheap. Don’t know if I’d have paid him $110 for 5. But I would have taken a shot at signing.

IMO, $110 for 5 was a big overpayment. No surprise there since overpayments are part of the free agent signing process. You generally receive a fair return on the front half of the contract but take a big hit on the back half. I believe Gausman fits that profile. Therefore, I believe Zaidi made the right call. He isn’t hoarding money because he is frugal. He is just looking for that unique someone who he thinks will provide value over the length of the contract (good luck, Farhan…).

(01-25-2022, 10:18 AM)Phogge Wrote: Too much for Gausman and in the second half Webb was the best pitcher in the league.

I don't understand these comments at all coming from a fan perspective.

1. From an ownership perspective it makes all the sense in the world to cut payroll as much as possible. Following last year's spectacular season attendance and sponsorship will be very strong, and the club is going to make a ton of money regardless of whether they reach the playoffs or not, regardless of whether they win the division or finish third with 85 wins. The revenue line is relatively inelastic so reducing costs is almost all pure profit.

2. Grant Brisbee at The Athletic predicted a $130 million payroll, presumably based on some internal insight. Fangraphs projects slightly less. That's roughly the level of the Twins and Reds payrolls last season. The Giants are one of the highest revenue teams in MLB, and the franchise is the fifth most valuable in the game (a reflection of projected future revenues and income) so it's ridiculous for their payroll to be in the 15th-17th range and for the team to be cutting payroll after such a successful season.

3. When teams don't re-sign their own players it's often a red flag. Possible medical issues or proprietary internal information that other teams aren't properly weighing. Maybe that's the case with Gausman. But SF made no effort (or only half hearted efforts) to pursue Ray, Rodriguez, Stroman, Gray, Garcia or Matz. They essentially signed Cobb in place of Gausman and saved $10 mm/year in the process. On a dollar-for-dollar basis I'm sure that signing Cobb is smarter than signing most of those others, i.e. Ray and Stroman probably aren't going to be more than twice as good as Cobb. But most of that group (and Gausman obviously) are all projected to be better than Cobb in absolute terms. So his signing is either genius (identifying the best available pitcher even though he's not projected as such by the industry) or simply saving money. More likely the latter.

4. A perfectly valid strategy which I would endorse is to spend money on position players while cobbling together a starting pitching staff from undervalued assets. Starters are less important than ever and prone to injury at some point when awarded a long term contract. This is what I assumed the Giants were doing when they essentially sat out the starting pitcher market. But they've also been inactive in the position player market. Their three best players last year were Posey (retrired), Crawford (35 years old coming off a career year that surely will regress) and Belt (will play at 34 years old this year and also likely to regress). But SF so far hasn't been involved in pursuing any position player free agents. Will SF operate at the top of that market (Correa) or near the top (Bryant, Castellanos, Story, Conforto)? All of those guys are going to be "overpaid" so the Giants may just pass and look for bargains (Pham?) and pray that they sign Suzuki.

When business re-opens I may be proven completely wrong and the Giants may move to aggressively improve the team. But right now it looks like SF is going to celebrate being $80 million or so under the luxury tax and I don't see why that's something that fans should be excited about. Signing Cobb instead of Gausman is "smart" and passing on free agents whose contracts are likely to age poorly is "very smart", but the Giants are a wealthy team owned by wealthy people who are capable of making some "not totally smart" moves and those would be a lot more fun for fans.

Each individual decision (such as not making an offer to Gausman) is entirely defensible but not something to cheer for if it's part of a master plan to reduce payroll substantially and just pocket the profits instead of investing them elsewhere.

RE: Giants/Niners 2022 thread - Phogge - 01-25-2022

Gausman just wasn’t the same guy in the second half. Let’s wait until the season starts before we panic guys.

RE: Giants/Niners 2022 thread - DC 86 - 01-25-2022

(01-25-2022, 02:36 PM)Phogge Wrote: Gausman just wasn’t the same guy in the second half. Let’s wait until the season starts before we panic guys.

My point isn't about Gausman specifically, it's about operating as a small/medium-revenue team instead of as a high-revenue team.

In any case, with regard to Gausman's 1H/2H splits, at first glance his superficial second half numbers are a big drop-off (5-3, 4.42 ERA vs 9-3, 1.73 ERA) but underlying metrics show that he was very lucky 1H and very unlucky 2H.

His BAbib (batting average on ball in play) was .212 in the first half (unsustainably lucky) and .352 in the second half (quite unlucky) in the second half. Meanwhile his K/9 rate improved slightly (10.44 to 10.94) and his BB/9 rate also improved slightly (2.35 to 2.33). His xFIP (expected fielding-independent ERA, which normalizes for homer luck and only considers factors within the pitcher's control) was 3.31 in the first half and dropped to 3.23 in the second half.

Gausman will almost certainly regress this year, but last year's 1H/2H drop-off is mostly an illusion.

RE: Giants/Niners 2022 thread - Mick - 01-25-2022

(01-25-2022, 02:36 PM)Phogge Wrote: Gausman just wasn’t the same guy in the second half. Let’s wait until the season starts before we panic guys.

I think that long term free agent pitcher contracts turn into Barry Zito or Johnny Cueto too often. Super-expensive, and they get one good year out of them. Giants got an 18-5 year from Cueto when he was 30, then Cueto turned 31 (same age as Gausman is now) and he has won 21 games total in the five seasons since then. Zito had a seven year contract with the Giants and had one (1) winning season...and had a 4.15 ERA during that season.

As far as Gausman goes...he was unhittable through June 23, at which point his ERA was 1.49 and he was 8-1. Then on 6/29 he gave up three runs and five walks in five innings and on July 5 he gave up two runs (just five base runners) in seven innings with 8 strikeouts. ERA 1.74. He hit the wall on July 19; two HRs in three innings, no decision. Gave up six earned runs on July 24th to pick up his fourth loss (ERA climbed to 2.21) and gave up three runs in 4 1/3rd on 7/30, losing again to fall 9-5. After 110 innings...he hit the wall.

I don't think SF wanted him for one season, and knew that he wanted a multi year contract. At 5 years, $110 mms., I anticipate one good year, and at some point Shapiro or Atkins, maybe LaCava ends up losing their jobs.