Women’s soccer 2025 -- ACC Champs, National runners up - Printable Version
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RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - OCcardinal - 10-21-2025
Stanford has clinched a spot in the ACC tournament. They clinch the bye with a tie vs SMU, but may clinch it before then, as explained below.
College: (league points) remaining games
Stanford: (22) SMU, at Cal
Notre Dame: (21) at VT, at WF, at Pitt [has
Cal: (16) Stanford
Virginia: (14) FSU, Pitt, BC
NCSU: (14) Louisville, Duke, at UNC
Louisville: (14) at NCSU, SMU
FSU: (14) at Virginia, Wake Forest
Duke: (12) Syracuse, at NCSU, Clemson
UNC: (12) at Miami, Syracuse, NCSU
Wake Forest: (11) Pitt, Notre Dame, at FSU
Clemson: (11) at BC, at Duke
For the regular season the ACC has co-champions. So if Stanford wins out and Notre Dame happens to tie Wake, for example, Stanford would tie for the ACC Championship. Massey gives Stanford an 87% chance of beating SMU and a 67% chance of beating Cal. Notre Dame's odds are: VT (65%), WF (61%) and Pitt (72%). The most likely outcome is they both win out and Stanford finishes 2nd.
Two teams are still mathematically in the hunt to catch Stanford for 2nd place (and the ACC tournament bye):
Virginia: 8 points behind with 3 games to go. They play Florida State on Thursday. If they do not win, Stanford is guaranteed to finish ahead of them. If they win out, Stanford needs only one tie as they have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
North Carolina State: also 8 points behind with 3 games to go, but they are major underdogs in each of those games. Similar to Virginia, if they win out then Stanford will need at least one tie to finish as the 2nd seed (Stanford would have the mutual opponents results tiebreaker, as NCSU tied both Virginia Tech and FSU).
In any event, there is a good chance neither Virginia nor NCSU wins their game on Thursday, in which case Stanford will have clinched the first round bye before they play SMU. Maybe they can give Freer the week off.
Cal will be hungry next week as they are a bubble team, fighting for spots in both the ACC and NCAA tournaments. And their ties against FSU and Virginia show they can be dangerous.
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - BostonCard - 10-21-2025
Quote:Massey gives Stanford an 87% chance of beating SMU and a 67% chance of beating Cal. Notre Dame's odds are: VT (65%), WF (61%) and Pitt (72%). The most likely outcome is they both win out and Stanford finishes 2nd.
Depends how you define “most likely”. Stanford’s chance of winning out is 58% but Notre Dame’s chance of winning all three games is only 29%, assuming that the three games are independent.
BC
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - Spike - 10-21-2025
Sincere thanks to you folks who do this research. It’s my only source for the “minor” sports.
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - oldalum - 10-21-2025
The way I look at it is that we need at least 2 points to mathematically secure second place and a first-round bye in the ACC tournament. We can control our own destiny by beating either SMU or Cal, or by tying both. Being co-champions with Notre Dame would be nice, but not fully up to us. Of course, for NCAA seeding the better we do in our remaining regular conference and ACC tournament games, the better our seeding.
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - OCcardinal - 10-21-2025
(10-21-2025, 01:15 PM)BostonCard Wrote:You are right. Should have paid more attention in statistics. :)Quote:Massey gives Stanford an 87% chance of beating SMU and a 67% chance of beating Cal. Notre Dame's odds are: VT (65%), WF (61%) and Pitt (72%). The most likely outcome is they both win out and Stanford finishes 2nd.
Depends how you define “most likely”. Stanford’s chance of winning out is 58% but Notre Dame’s chance of winning all three games is only 29%, assuming that the three games are independent.
BC
(10-21-2025, 02:16 PM)oldalum Wrote: The way I look at it is that we need at least 2 points to mathematically secure second place and a first-round bye in the ACC tournament. We can control our own destiny by beating either SMU or Cal, or by tying both. Being co-champions with Notre Dame would be nice, but not fully up to us. Of course, for NCAA seeding the better we do in our remaining regular conference and ACC tournament games, the better our seeding.Did I leave something out? I understand it could get complicated if we end up with Stanford, VA and NCSU all at 22. See: Tiebreaking rules In any event, an AI query tells me he probability of NCSU sweeping its 3 games against Louisville (23%), Duke (13%) and UNC (8%) is less than 1/4 of 1% (a 1/417 chance, to be precise). So I'm not too worried about NCSU. And, of course, if Stanford fails to beat SMU, we have other concerns.
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - oldalum - 10-22-2025
(10-21-2025, 03:58 PM)OCcardinal Wrote:No, the opposite: my formulation was just a simple version that best suits my simple mind. :)(10-21-2025, 02:16 PM)oldalum Wrote: The way I look at it is that we need at least 2 points to mathematically secure second place and a first-round bye in the ACC tournament. We can control our own destiny by beating either SMU or Cal, or by tying both. Being co-champions with Notre Dame would be nice, but not fully up to us. Of course, for NCAA seeding the better we do in our remaining regular conference and ACC tournament games, the better our seeding.Did I leave something out?
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - StanFanFam13 - 10-25-2025
It will be hard to say goodbye to this class of seniors, but I'm looking forward to celebrating them tonight! Looks like Provost Martinez is too: https://www.instagram.com/p/DQHn5kmD5Up/
Glad to see continued support for Stanford athletics from this leadership team.
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - Spiny_Norman - 10-25-2025
Stanford up on SMU 5-0 with 20 minutes remaining on Senior Night. SMU has 0 shots on goal to this point.
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - BostonCard - 10-25-2025
It ends 5-1; from the box score SMU mustered two shots (one of which, obviously, went in).
Actually SMU mustered more than two shots, as Jota saved at least two in this sequence:
https://x.com/stanfordwsoccer/status/1982295638869209548?s=61
Smith opened the scoring on a shot that the SMU keeper must have been screened.
https://x.com/stanfordwsoccer/status/1982278601849626791?s=61
Klinger to Kitahata.
https://x.com/stanfordwsoccer/status/1982286816708555232?s=61
Kitahata cleans up and gets the brace. Honestly Kohler’s shot did like 99% of the work (and might have trickled in anyways).
https://x.com/stanfordwsoccer/status/1982288156893519937?s=61
Last two goals by Smith and Evans
https://x.com/stanfordwsoccer/status/1982290082762744091?s=61
Like Kitahata’s goal, Evans’ was just the goalkeeper stopping the shot but unable to corral or clear it.
BC
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - Hieronymus - 10-26-2025
(10-25-2025, 09:10 PM)BostonCard Wrote: It ends 5-1; from the box score SMU mustered two shots (one of which, obviously, went in).
Actually SMU mustered more than two shots, as Jota saved at least two in this sequence:
https://x.com/stanfordwsoccer/status/1982295638869209548?s=61
Smith opened the scoring on a shot that the SMU keeper must have been screened.
https://x.com/stanfordwsoccer/status/1982278601849626791?s=61
Klinger to Kitahata.
https://x.com/stanfordwsoccer/status/1982286816708555232?s=61
Kitahata cleans up and gets the brace. Honestly Kohler’s shot did like 99% of the work (and might have trickled in anyways).
https://x.com/stanfordwsoccer/status/1982288156893519937?s=61
Last two goals by Smith and Evans
https://x.com/stanfordwsoccer/status/1982290082762744091?s=61
Like Kitahata’s goal, Evans’ was just the goalkeeper stopping the shot but unable to corral or clear it.
BC
Fubo and espn is completely broken. ESPN says it fubo’s fault. We will see. But Fubo may be getting cancelled.
First goal is the dreaded cross on goal. Goalie really needs to play the ball, but they are afraid an attacker is going to get to it and they freeze. From the angle, it may to your point also be hard to see or hard to judge that it is on goal. Craig got caught on one of these last year. Tough situation for a goalie. You look like an idiot if you do decide to play the ball and an attacker does get to it….
But tough day overall for the SMU goalie; 2 other goals could have been stopped. Note I said could have not necessarily should have.
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - ca245 - 10-26-2025
I assume Kitahata wasn't honored in the Senior Day festivities because she participated in last year's Senior Day? Or does she have eligibility left?
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - BostonCard - 10-26-2025
Agreed; she did well to stop the initial shot, but I’m sure she’ll review the film and wish she had corralled the shot better, or cleared it. I think she was trying to keep it close to grab it, but she dint control it as well as she wanted and the Stanford attackers just pounced.
You can’t necessarily count on chances like that against a skilled keeper, but when you get them you absolutely have to pounce, so credit to Kitahata and Evan’s for being aggressive and being in position for the easy tap in.
BC
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - Spiny_Norman - 10-26-2025
(10-26-2025, 09:49 AM)ca245 Wrote: I assume Kitahata wasn't honored in the Senior Day festivities because she participated in last year's Senior Day? Or does she have eligibility left?
Yes, that is exactly what the announcers said. Kitahata did not participate in Senior Day yesterday because she did it last year.
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - ca245 - 10-26-2025
Notre Dame just tied Wake Forest, so we are tied with them on points. If we beat Cal and they beat Pitt for the respective last games, we will be co-champs of the ACC. But, as I understand the tie-breaker for the No. 1 seed in the tournament, it would come down to record against common opponents, because we didn't play each other. Then, they would get the No. 1 seed because of a better record against common opponents -- we tied Clemson while they beat them. (We and ND also beat Pitt, FSU, VTech, and SMU.)
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - OCcardinal - 10-26-2025
The 5 goals against SMU was great production. They hadn't given up more than 3 goals all season (including to Notre Dame) and 23 players got in the game (none less than 24 minutes).
And its great to have a chance for an ACC Championship ("co" or otherwise) given that the ACC coaches picked us 5th in the preseason poll. Cal probably needs to beat us to make the ACC tournament, so will surely be giving us their best on Thursday.
As for seeding in the ACC tournament #1 vs #2 shouldn't be a big deal as all of the teams in the tournament will be good (plus there is a chance Florida State ends up playing in the semi-final against the #1 seed anyway).
Generally good news on the injury front. Lily Freer was able to play last night (as a sub anyway) and the announcers said that Allie Montoya should be back for the postseason at some point. Plus Kitahata scored two goals yesterday and wasn't wearing any type of brace or sleeve. She looked really comfortable. However, Joelle Jung was out last night. It sounded from the announcers that it wasn't serious, so hopefully we'll see her back on the pitch vs Cal (or in the ACC tournament).
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - old spanish trail - 10-26-2025
(10-25-2025, 09:10 PM)BostonCard Wrote: It ends 5-1; from the box score SMU mustered two shots (one of which, obviously, went in).Thanks, BC.
Actually SMU mustered more than two shots, as Jota saved at least two in this sequence:
https://x.com/stanfordwsoccer/status/1982295638869209548?s=61
Smith opened the scoring on a shot that the SMU keeper must have been screened.
https://x.com/stanfordwsoccer/status/1982278601849626791?s=61
Klinger to Kitahata.
https://x.com/stanfordwsoccer/status/1982286816708555232?s=61
Kitahata cleans up and gets the brace. Honestly Kohler’s shot did like 99% of the work (and might have trickled in anyways).
https://x.com/stanfordwsoccer/status/1982288156893519937?s=61
Last two goals by Smith and Evans
https://x.com/stanfordwsoccer/status/1982290082762744091?s=61
Like Kitahata’s goal, Evans’ was just the goalkeeper stopping the shot but unable to corral or clear it.
BC
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - cardfan77 - 10-26-2025
(10-26-2025, 03:49 PM)OCcardinal Wrote: Generally good news on the injury front. Lily Freer was able to play last night (as a sub anyway) and the announcers said that Allie Montoya should be back for the postseason at some point. Plus Kitahata scored two goals yesterday and wasn't wearing any type of brace or sleeve. She looked really comfortable. However, Joelle Jung was out last night. It sounded from the announcers that it wasn't serious, so hopefully we'll see her back on the pitch vs Cal (or in the ACC tournament).
I doubt we will see Jung play on Thursday. She was on crutches and wearing aircast/walking boot on Saturday. Hopefully she can return for the NCAA tournament.
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - Hieronymus - 10-26-2025
(10-26-2025, 03:49 PM)OCcardinal Wrote: The 5 goals against SMU was great production. They hadn't given up more than 3 goals all season (including to Notre Dame) and 23 players got in the game (none less than 24 minutes).
First half was Stanford’s worst of the season by far - the ball was flying around everywhere and not in the good way. SMU pressed hard early and Stanford just kept coughing it up. As the half wore on, Stanford was at least able to push SMU back and then got the Sammy cross/shot goal. But it was ugly. 20+ minutes in shots were 3:3.
Second half was much, much better and the passing was much improved. 3 goals in the first 17 or 18 minutes and everything was much crisper. Nice to see Logan Smith score on senior night.
I think it was very wise to give Freer most of the day off.
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - OCcardinal - 10-27-2025
(10-26-2025, 08:23 PM)Hieronymus Wrote: First half was Stanford’s worst of the season by far - the ball was flying around everywhere and not in the good way. SMU pressed hard early and Stanford just kept coughing it up. As the half wore on, Stanford was at least able to push SMU back and then got the Sammy cross/shot goal. But it was ugly. 20+ minutes in shots were 3:3.Yes, SMU was pressing like crazy to start the game. They weren't deep enough to keep that up for even a full half. By the second half Stanford was able to dribble past the SMU players almost at will.
Clemson did they opposite - they parked the bus for 75 minutes then pressed the last 15 minutes and were able to steal a tie. Santa Clara used to give Stanford fits by pressing the whole game, but they don't have the depth any more. Stanford may very well face an opponent who is able to press the whole game in, say, the 3rd round of NCAAs. I'm thankful for SMU for giving our starters some practice against that type of strategy. It was key that Stanford didn't give up a goal in that first half. Because then I'm sure SMU would have just parked the bus the rest of the way.
RE: Women’s soccer 2025 - jonnyss - 10-30-2025
uswnt macario w 2 goals.