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RE: 2023 Niners thread - Giants - 10-09-2023
OutsiderFan dateline='[url=tel:1696871346' Wrote: 1696871346[/url]']
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1696862093' Wrote: 1696862093[/url]']
49ers talent is terrific. But this is not the most talent they have ever had. Look at the ‘84 roster….. Not to mention ‘88-89. But this may be their most talented post-cap roster.
Bold = Pro Bowl that year
Bold* = Hall of Fame
'84
QB Montana*
RB Tyler
RB Craig
WR Clark
WR Solomon
TE Francis
LT Paris
LG Ayers
C Quillan
RG Cross
RT Fahnhorst
DE Board
NT Tuiasosopo
DE Pillers
ROLB Dean*
RILB Reynolds
RILB Ellison
LOLB Turner
CB Lott*
CB Wright
SS Williamson
FS Hicks
That's 9 Pro Bowers
Dean is in HOF, but didn't make Pro Bowl that year, so let's say 10 elite players
I also think Wright was great, so let's say the Niners had 11 Top 100 talents
Maybe I give you Russ Francis, so make it 12
Alright, Roger Craig was probably considered a top talent, so call it 13 Top echelon NFL players in 1984
There were 3 future HOF players on this team.
'89
QB Montana*
QB Craig
FB Rathman
WR Rice*
WR Taylor
TE Jones
LT Wallace
LG McIntyre
C Sapolu
RG Collie
RT Barton
RE Fagan
NT Carter
LE Holt
ROLB Haley*
RILB Walter
LILB Millen
LOLB Turner
CB Griffin
CB McKyer
FS Lott*
SS Fuller/Brooks
That's 7 Pro Bowlers
Haley is in HOF but didn't make Pro Bowl for some reason, so let's say 8.
I'll give you Steve Wallace and Brent Jones and Tom Rathman to make it 11 for sure.
I also really liked Holt, Fagan, and Carter, and Don Griffin, so we can make it 14 super talented guys on the 1989 team.
There were 4 future HOF players on this team
'94
QB Young
RB Watters
FB Floyd
WR Rice
WR Taylor
TE Jones
LT Wallace
LG Sopolu
C Oates
RG Deese
RT Barton
RE Jackson
DT Stubblefield
DT Young*
LE Brown
WLB Woodall
MLB Plummer
SLB Norton
CB Davis
CB Sanders
FS Hanks
SS McDonald
That's 10 Pro Bowlers.
Young is in HOF but didn't make Pro Bowl for some reason, so let's say 11.
Wallace was still pretty good, as was Ken Norton, and Eric Davis, so let's go with 14 super talented guys on the 1989 team.
There were 5 future HOF players on this team.
'23
QB Purdy
RB McCaffrey*
FB Juszcyzk
WR Aiyuk (likely Pro Bowl if not Samuel)
WR Samuel (has been All Pro)
TE Kittle*
LT Williams*
LG Banks
C Brendel
RG Burford
RT McKivitz
RE Bosa*
DT Hargrave
DT Armstead
DE Ferrell (Randy Gregory, maybe soon Danielle Hunter)
WLB Greenlaw
MLB Warner*
SLB Burks
CB Ward
CB Lenoir
FS Gipson Jr.
SS Hufanga
I've indicated 11 lPro Bowl projections, and even made HOF projections that don't include Purdy
I'd argue Ward deserves Pro Bowl consideration, plus Gipson Jr. and Armstead are really good, and maybe one more OL might sneak in there. If the Niners get 11, it will be the most they've ever had, and I could go up to 14 super talented guys.
If Purdy doesn't make HOF, there are 5 HOF players on the 2023 team. If he does, there are 6.
This is why I make the case the 2023 is the most talented team the Niners have ever had. Even without a HOF QB, he's playing at a HOF level, and the Niners have 5 HOF players not including the QB.
As David Lombardi said, this Niners teams has better stats than the '94 team, and to me, it's because it is more talented. It's not just the number of talented players, it's how good the good ones are.
It is kind of remarkable as a fan to have had four amazing teams since 1980 and they don't include the 1981, 1988, 2013 or 2019 Super Bowl teams.
But I think what this exercise shows is how much talent is needed to just be in a Super Bowl.
1981 - 2 HOF players (Montana and Lott)
1988 - 4 HOF players (Montana, Rice, Lott, Haley)
2013 - 1 HOF player (Gore), Willis should be, maybe Joe Staley
2019 - 0 so far, but maybe Staley, Kittle, Bosa, Warner (should have won this one for sure!)
The 2023 Niners are absolutely loaded and based on past history, should be in and win the Super Bowl this season.
Forget all the names and accolades. The only thing that matters is results.
1984: 15-1 regular season and a 3-0 playoff record, including a Super Bowl win. I would rank this team as the best 49er team in franchise history.
2023 - tbd; so far, things look good; however, the #1 factor issue that will determine this team’s fate is health. One cannot predict the how, when, where, why of injuries but they absolutely influence the outcome of every season. The 49ers lack of premium depth has to be a concern…..
RE: 2023 Niners thread - BobK - 10-09-2023
We hope to learn today about Guard Banks injury. Could be serious. Speaking of depth
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Giants - 10-09-2023
BobK dateline='[url=tel:1696882374' Wrote: 1696882374[/url]']
We hope to learn today about Guard Banks injury. Could be serious. Speaking of depth
“Mild” shoulder strain: day-to-day (of course, as Lon Simmons once said when he was told that about a player had been injured - “aren’t we all”).
SF dodged a bullet…..
RE: 2023 Niners thread - cardcrimson - 10-09-2023
(10-09-2023, 06:53 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: FHOF Brock Purdy
Before we anoint the guy, stumbled on this interesting stat: "his [Purdy] 10-0 regular-season record as a starter ties Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Mike Livingston and former Chicago Bears signal-caller Mike Tomczak for the second-most consecutive wins by a quarterback to begin a career in NFL history." Great to be on the same level as Livingston and Tomczak. When he surpasses Roethlisberger, then maybe the conversation can start. . . .
RE: 2023 Niners thread - lex24 - 10-10-2023
Difference with ‘84 and now is depth. Especially on defense. Which OF ignores. Defensive line had Big Hands Johnson, Kelcher, Michael Carter , Stuckey. Backup TE was Earl Cooper. Fuller backup safety. Just a few examples. Again, no cap. But the depth of that team was remarkable. Especially d line. They came at teams in waves. Ask Marino….
RE: 2023 Niners thread - lex24 - 10-10-2023
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1696889823' Wrote: 1696889823[/url]']
BobK dateline='[url=tel:1696882374' Wrote: 1696882374[/url]']
We hope to learn today about Guard Banks injury. Could be serious. Speaking of depth
“Mild” shoulder strain: day-to-day (of course, as Lon Simmons once said when he was told that about a player had been injured - “aren’t we all”).
SF dodged a bullet…..
Hopefully. O-line depth is thin. I’d like to see them add a lineman.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 10-10-2023
(10-10-2023, 07:15 AM)lex24 Wrote: Difference with ‘84 and now is depth. Especially on defense. Which OF ignores. Defensive line had Big Hands Johnson, Kelcher, Michael Carter , Stuckey. Backup TE was Earl Cooper. Fuller backup safety. Just a few examples. Again, no cap. But the depth of that team was remarkable. Especially d line. They came at teams in waves. Ask Marino….
If memory serves, those were in the pre-salary cap days...when Eddie D. could go out and get what he wanted, forget about the cost.
The Browns (2-2) are five point underdogs. Classic trap game...49ers are coming off of a big Sunday night win, Browns had a bye week last week, so they've had two weeks to rest and prepare, and the game is 2,500 miles away with a kickoff at 10 a.m. body clock time. Cleveland's OL is banged up, and Deshaun Watson's shoulder is injured. Their last game was a 28-3 loss to the Ravens. Niners have averaged around 33 ppg, but the O/U is currently just 42 points, so Vegas is projecting a 23-18 game. Seems odd, none of the Niners' games have been that close, and they've only given up that many points once.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - gocard14 - 10-10-2023
Were sports betting legal in Ca I would take the Niners laying the points.
Over/under I would stay away from. I expect the niners to hit 30. I don't trust the Browns to hit 12, though if the game plays out high I expect a garbage time TD may hit the over.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - OutsiderFan - 10-10-2023
(10-10-2023, 07:15 AM)lex24 Wrote: Difference with ‘84 and now is depth. Which OF ignores. Defensive line had Big Hands Johnson, Kelcher, Michael Carter. Backup TE was Earl Cooper. Fuller backup safety. Just a few examples. Again, no cap. But the depth of that team was remarkable.
I'm not ignoring anything. That 1984 team did have great depth on the DL, but not much elsewhere. And it only had 3 Hall of Fame players.
But when I say most talented team, I mean relative to everyone else. In a salary cap era, it's way, way harder to accumulate as much top tier talent on a roster that the Niners have. And a natural outgrowth is going to be sacrificing depth to some degree if you assume minimum level free agents and rookies aren't going to be top end right away.
The 2023 Niners had 8 guys in the NFL Top 100 players in the pre-season rankings. This was the most of any NFL team, and that didn't include several guys that arguably could or should be.
Would you say Brock Purdy is a Top 100 player? I would. That's 9.
Kyle Juszcyzk was on Top 100 for two previous years, but not 2023 and will be a Pro Bowl FB again. He'd be 10.
Javon Hargrave? He was #98 in 2022 and somehow fell off after his monster 2022 season. That's 11.
How about Charvarious Ward? Was ranked #10 CB by NFL.com in pre-season, and is even better IMO. That's 12.
Brandon Aiyuk? Think he is a Top 100 talent? If so, he would be 13.
Arik Armstead, Tashaun Gipson, and Deommodore Lenoir might not be Top 100, but they are really good too.
Jake Brendel isn't Top 100, but I've seen David Andrews of the Patriots play this year who's suppose to be a Top 10 Center, and I'd take Brendel. He may give up more pressures than most people like, but his ability to block down field is more valuable to the Niners than the pressures he yields that don't result in sacks, especially with how quick Purdy gets rid of the ball.
The Niners have about 3-4x more top talent than the average NFL team in 2023 could have with an equal Top 100 talent distribution, including 5 HOF players not including Purdy if he were to be as good as he is is now for 10+ years.
All these "who's better" sports debates never really have definitive answers, but it is usually the case that the best teams have the most talent. The 2023 Niners are dominating in a way no Niners team in history has to this point in a season, suggesting historical talent on the roster. Obviously, coaching - putting players in the best position to succeed - is part of the equation too, so that's another variable to factor in. There is a reason this Niners team is also favored to win every game this season.
And...Donte Whitner - who knows something about the NFL - has even boldly predicted 17-0 FWIW:
https://www.knbr.com/2023/10/09/donte-whitner-breaks-down-why-thinks-49ers-will-go-undefeated/
Look, I'm not making any bold prediction like this because it just seems so unrealistic. I saw the bogus PI on Eric Wright in 1984 that prevented perfection that year. But it is conceivably possible if they can win at Cleveland, which is arguably the toughest game they will have all year in terms of getting up to play it after the big Cowboys stomping. If they win this weekend, it will show they can handle success and win without their A game that I fully don't expect to see. The @Seattle, @Philly, vs. Seattle 3-game stretch will be a gauntlet.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 10-10-2023
Here's Pro Football Focus's five highest graded 49ers players on offense vs. Cowboys:
Jordan Mason, 91.0
Brock Purdy, 85.3
Brandon Aiyuk, 82.4
George Kittle, 79.3
Trent Williams, 78.8
Here's Pro Football Focus's five highest graded 49ers players on defense vs. Cowboys:
Oren Burks, 94.6
Nick Bosa, 91.2
Deommodore Lenoir, 84.7
Dre Greenlaw, 81.2
Javon Kinlaw, 79.5
Here's Pro Football Focus's three lowest graded 49ers players on offense vs. Cowboys:
Ross Dwelley, 40.2
Ronnie Bell, 45.3
Aaron Banks, 49.2
Here's Pro Football Focus's three lowest graded 49ers players on defense vs. Cowboys:
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, 38.7
Clelin Ferrell, 54.8
Drake Jackson, 57.8
I find the Jackson and Banks ratings disturbing, given their importance in the rotation, and I'm mildly impressed with Kinlaw's rating. BTW, Purdy was among the five highest graded 49ers players for the second consecutive week and third time this season. Purdy joins Jim Plunkett, Joe Montana and Jeff Garcia to throw for four TDs against the Cowboys. And while Purdy is one of 10 NFL quarterbacks to throw for 20 passing TDs in his first 10 games, he posted the fewest interceptions (two) of any of those 10 QBs in that span.
https://www.espn.com.au/nfl/story/_/id/38611412/49ers-hope-brock-purdy-gets-more-respect-snf-showcase
Bosa remains the highest graded edge rusher in the NFL this season with an overall 94.2 grade.
https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/172940-highest-lowest-graded-players-cowboys-counts/
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Goose - 10-10-2023
(10-10-2023, 08:37 AM)Mick Wrote: The Browns (2-2) are five point underdogs. Classic trap game...49ers are coming off of a big Sunday night win, Browns had a bye week last week, so they've had two weeks to rest and prepare, and the game is 2,500 miles away with a kickoff at 10 a.m. body clock time. Cleveland's OL is banged up, and Deshaun Watson's shoulder is injured. Their last game was a 28-3 loss to the Ravens. Niners have averaged around 33 ppg, but the O/U is currently just 42 points, so Vegas is projecting a 23-18 game. Seems odd, none of the Niners' games have been that close, and they've only given up that many points once.Not so odd IMO. As of week 5, the Browns were #1 in total defense (by a lot), #1 in pass defense (by a lot), and #4 in rush defense. It is fair to argue that the Brown's numbers (like Dallas's) are greatly inflated by who they have played, but in any case the most points they have given up this year is 28 to the Ravens. However, the Brown's offense has been terrible. It is unclear that Watson will be ready to go, and even when he plays the Brown's offense hasn't produced much. I can easily see a relatively low scoring game by the Niners' because for three quarters the Brown's defense could be pretty strong. Their offense probably won't be, so a 28-3 outcome wouldn't be that improbable. If DTR starts, the 3 is probable IMO. As the Cleveland writers are saying, he doesn't look "NFL ready".
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 10-10-2023
I don't believe Deshawn Watson has been practicing. His throwing shoulder is "bruised." Watson's backup was terrible against the Ravens weekend before last, 25.3 rating, I think. He threw 36 times for 121 yards. And their vaunted defense gave up 15/19 passing for 186 yards and two TDs to Lamar Jackson. The Ravens scored 21 in the first half before turning off the jets. The Browns rushed for less than 100 yards.
I think the Niners will win easily.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Giants - 10-10-2023
With less than 30% of the regular season in the books, I think it is rather premature to be talking about a historical season. Given the backloaded schedule, I think a 15-2 final record would be a very successful outcome this year.
Just as the egg laying 40-8 loss to Philadelphia in the 49ers last Super Bowl season meant little in the big picture, I think the trouncing of Dallas will also have little impact. Both were just a single game in a long season. The beatdown by the Eagles was definitely not an indicator of the strength of that team. I’m not certain the big win over Dallas tells us much about how this season will finish.
There is no question the team has the necessary talent. However, staying healthy, playing well in challenging circumstances (see last year’s debacle in Chicago or that crazy game in Washington several years ago), effectively handling repeated instances of long distance travel, keeping a zen-like Bill Walsh approach to the opponent each week - these are the factors that will determine whether this is a historical season.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - OutsiderFan - 10-10-2023
One thing I like about the Niners aside from pure talent, is their mentality and leadership.
They have rock solid character on the team, with great wisdom and humility across the roster. They have many professional's professionals and future Hall of Fame players to set the tone and find the level of consistency needed to be great.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 10-10-2023
(10-10-2023, 12:40 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: One thing I like about the Niners aside from pure talent, is their mentality and leadership.
They have rock solid character on the team, with great wisdom and humility across the roster. They have many professional's professionals and future Hall of Fame players to set the tone and find the level of consistency needed to be great.
I was thinking just that when, after the game, a sideline reporter was interviewing George Kittle, Brock Purdy and Fred Warner. She tried to get them to comment on the Philadelphia game, seven weeks away. She directed the question to 23 year old Purdy who demurred and said "We're not even thinking that far in advance," and Kittle said "we're thinking about the Browns next weekend," and Fred Warner said "everyone on this team is thinking like that." I know that's the stock answer, but the way the responded made me think that they'd internalized it, and that it was teamwide and that they were on a unified mission.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - baymeadows3408 - 10-10-2023
(10-10-2023, 04:24 PM)Mick Wrote:(10-10-2023, 12:40 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: One thing I like about the Niners aside from pure talent, is their mentality and leadership.
They have rock solid character on the team, with great wisdom and humility across the roster. They have many professional's professionals and future Hall of Fame players to set the tone and find the level of consistency needed to be great.
I was thinking just that when, after the game, a sideline reporter was interviewing George Kittle, Brock Purdy and Fred Warner. She tried to get them to comment on the Philadelphia game, seven weeks away. She directed the question to 23 year old Purdy who demurred and said "We're not even thinking that far in advance," and Kittle said "we're thinking about the Browns next weekend," and Fred Warner said "everyone on this team is thinking like that." I know that's the stock answer, but the way the responded made me think that they'd internalized it, and that it was teamwide and that they were on a unified mission.
I knew coming into this season that the 49ers have an excellent team, but I became even more bullish early in the season when I saw the wide receivers doing some tenacious downfield blocking on one of McCaffrey's long touchdown runs. It's one thing to have a bunch of talent, and it's another to have a talented team that is fully buying in to a culture of hard work and selflessness. Nothing is guaranteed and even the best teams come up short sometimes, but I can tell the 49ers have fully committed to winning a championship.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - cardcrimson - 10-10-2023
(10-10-2023, 06:46 PM)baymeadows3408 Wrote:(10-10-2023, 04:24 PM)Mick Wrote:(10-10-2023, 12:40 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: One thing I like about the Niners aside from pure talent, is their mentality and leadership.
They have rock solid character on the team, with great wisdom and humility across the roster. They have many professional's professionals and future Hall of Fame players to set the tone and find the level of consistency needed to be great.
I was thinking just that when, after the game, a sideline reporter was interviewing George Kittle, Brock Purdy and Fred Warner. She tried to get them to comment on the Philadelphia game, seven weeks away. She directed the question to 23 year old Purdy who demurred and said "We're not even thinking that far in advance," and Kittle said "we're thinking about the Browns next weekend," and Fred Warner said "everyone on this team is thinking like that." I know that's the stock answer, but the way the responded made me think that they'd internalized it, and that it was teamwide and that they were on a unified mission.
I knew coming into this season that the 49ers have an excellent team, but I became even more bullish early in the season when I saw the wide receivers doing some tenacious downfield blocking on one of McCaffrey's long touchdown runs. It's one thing to have a bunch of talent, and it's another to have a talented team that is fully buying in to a culture of hard work and selflessness. Nothing is guaranteed and even the best teams come up short sometimes, but I can tell the 49ers have fully committed to winning a championship.
And that CMac praised them significantly after the play. That's a team. . . .
RE: 2023 Niners thread - OutsiderFan - 10-11-2023
Heard today, I think said by Damon Bruce:
Brock Purdy has the highest passer rating and 2nd highest completion percentage through 10 starts of all QBs in NFL history.
After watching the All-22 analysis of Purdy against the Cowboys, all I can say is OMG. People can talk all they want about him being in a system that gets receivers open. But the accuracy with which he throws the ball is all him. That's not something that can be taught by a coach.
There were at least 5 throws in that game that were crazy impressive, and JTO even said one of his incompletions was impressive because it was thrown with such incredible anticipation that he can't be blamed for missing, meaning it was thrown before Aiyuk started turning around. The throw to Deebo on 3rd and 13 after the previous dime to Aiyuk was called back by penalty, was the one that really impressed me.
He not only manipulated the coverage with his eyes and made the right decision to throw to the receiver he chose, he threw the ball so it cleared the dropping LB and allowed Deebo to catch it in stride with nobody in front of him so he could turn upfield for more YAC yards on a game long 42 yd gain.
I remember watching Montana play in 1980 after seeing DeBerg and telling my dad Montana should be starting. I was about 10 years old. A few games later, Montana was named the starter and the rest is history. Those same eyes 40 years later conclude Purdy is better than Montana at the same age.
Before some of you lose your minds, just look at the stats:
Montana's first 7 starts at age 24 in 1980:
Completions: 64.5%
YPA: 6.6 YPA
TD/INT: 15/9
Rating: 87.8
Montana's 2nd year at age 25 that ended with Super Bowl MVP in 1981
Completions: 63.7
YPA: 7.3
TD/INT: 19/12
Rating: 88.4
Purdy's first 6 starts at age 23 (I count the game against Miami he came in for Garoppolo in first quarter as a start)
Completions: 67.1%
YPA: 8.1
TD/INT: 13/4
Rating: 107.3
Purdy's 2nd year at age 24 through 5 starts
Completions: 72.1%
YPA: 9.3
TD/INT: 9/0
Rating: 123.1
Some things to consider:
- Montana's rookie year he was same age as Purdy, but basically didn't play n 1979, whereas Purdy started 5 games and won two playoff games in his rookie season. So Purdy is ahead of Montana by a year.
- The game has changed and relative to his peers at the time, Montana's numbers were super impressive. For example, Montana's completion % led the NFL in his first two years being a starting QB, at basically 64%. That 64% is about #23 in the NFL in 2023. Interceptions were also thrown at a higher rate when Montana first started playing. Plus, the specialization of the position along with year-round training, etc. and more sophisticated coaching makes it difficult to compare eras. I mean if Purdy and Montana played at the time the other did, maybe they wouldn't be as good. Who knows.
- I didn't realize this, but Ken Anderson, who Montana faced in the Super Bowl, was league MVP in 1981. His TD/INT was 29/10, his YPA led NFL at 8.1, and he completed 62.6% of his passes.
- Montana was known as being unflappable, and obviously making the biggest throws in the biggest moments, kind of the classic "great players aren't great all the time, just great when they must be." Purdy is unflappable too, but we've yet to see those magic moments where he delivers at the most crucial times. We were robbed of the opportunity when he was knocked out of the NFC CG against the Eagles.
- Purdy must overcome Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Hurts level QBs. Montana had Ken Anderson, Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, Joe Theismann and Phil Simms to overcome. Relative to the time, I'd say they are about even. Anderson just made the Hall of Fame this year and Fouts and Marino already are.
- Montana didn't have a passer rating over 100 until his 7th year as a starter. His highest ever was 112.4, and he only surpassed 100 in 3 of his 13 seasons as a starting QB. But 4 Super Bowl wins and 3 MVPs makes up for a lot of imperfect stats!
If Purdy wins Super Bowl this year, nobody will be able to deny he is on his way to a Hall of Fame career, because he will be putting up historically elite numbers, and have the ring to validate him in the most important way possible. It will be interesting if the bias against Purdy continues as his career evolves. I'm guessing as soon as he wins a Super Bowl, he will be considered above say Justin Herbert and Josh Allen if they remain without one. We shall see.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - gocard14 - 10-11-2023
OutsiderFan dateline='[url=tel:1697054626' Wrote: 1697054626[/url]']
Heard today, I think said by Damon Bruce:
Brock Purdy has the highest passer rating and 2nd highest completion percentage through 10 starts of all QBs in NFL history.
After watching the All-22 analysis of Purdy against the Cowboys, all I can say is OMG. People can talk all they want about him being in a system that gets receivers open. But the accuracy with which he throws the ball is all him. That's not something that can be taught by a coach.
There were at least 5 throws in that game that were crazy impressive, and JTO even said one of his incompletions was impressive because it was thrown with such incredible anticipation that he can't be blamed for missing, meaning it was thrown before Aiyuk started turning around. The throw to Deebo on 3rd and 13 after the previous dime to Aiyuk was called back by penalty, was the one that really impressed me.
He not only manipulated the coverage with his eyes and made the right decision to throw to the receiver he chose, he threw the ball so it cleared the dropping LB and allowed Deebo to catch it in stride with nobody in front of him so he could turn upfield for more YAC yards on a game long 42 yd gain.
I remember watching Montana play in 1980 after seeing DeBerg and telling my dad Montana should be starting. I was about 10 years old. A few games later, Montana was named the starter and the rest is history. Those same eyes 40 years later conclude Purdy is better than Montana at the same age.
Before some of you lose your minds, just look at the stats:
Montana's first 7 starts at age 24 in 1980:
Completions: 64.5%
YPA: 6.6 YPA
TD/INT: 15/9
Rating: 87.8
Montana's 2nd year at age 25 that ended with Super Bowl MVP in 1981
Completions: 63.7
YPA: 7.3
TD/INT: 19/12
Rating: 88.4
Purdy's first 6 starts at age 23 (I count the game against Miami he came in for Garoppolo in first quarter as a start)
Completions: 67.1%
YPA: 8.1
TD/INT: 13/4
Rating: 107.3
Purdy's 2nd year at age 24 through 5 starts
Completions: 72.1%
YPA: 9.3
TD/INT: 9/0
Rating: 123.1
Some things to consider:
- Montana's rookie year he was same age as Purdy, but basically didn't play n 1979, whereas Purdy started 5 games and won two playoff games in his rookie season. So Purdy is ahead of Montana by a year.
- The game has changed and relative to his peers at the time, Montana's numbers were super impressive. For example, Montana's completion % led the NFL in his first two years being a starting QB, at basically 64%. That 64% is about #23 in the NFL in 2023. Interceptions were also thrown at a higher rate when Montana first started playing. Plus, the specialization of the position along with year-round training, etc. and more sophisticated coaching makes it difficult to compare eras. I mean if Purdy and Montana played at the time the other did, maybe they wouldn't be as good. Who knows.
- I didn't realize this, but Ken Anderson, who Montana faced in the Super Bowl, was league MVP in 1981. His TD/INT was 29/10, his YPA led NFL at 8.1, and he completed 62.6% of his passes.
- Montana was known as being unflappable, and obviously making the biggest throws in the biggest moments, kind of the classic "great players aren't great all the time, just great when they must be." Purdy is unflappable too, but we've yet to see those magic moments where he delivers at the most crucial times. We were robbed of the opportunity when he was knocked out of the NFC CG against the Eagles.
- Purdy must overcome Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Hurts level QBs. Montana had Ken Anderson, Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, Joe Theismann and Phil Simms to overcome. Relative to the time, I'd say they are about even. Anderson just made the Hall of Fame this year and Fouts and Marino already are.
- Montana didn't have a passer rating over 100 until his 7th year as a starter. His highest ever was 112.4, and he only surpassed 100 in 3 of his 13 seasons as a starting QB. But 4 Super Bowl wins and 3 MVPs makes up for a lot of imperfect stats!
If Purdy wins Super Bowl this year, nobody will be able to deny he is on his way to a Hall of Fame career, because he will be putting up historically elite numbers, and have the ring to validate him in the most important way possible. It will be interesting if the bias against Purdy continues as his career evolves. I'm guessing as soon as he wins a Super Bowl, he will be considered above say Justin Herbert and Josh Allen if they remain without one. We shall see.
Purdy is making very high level throws look dead easy. 20 yard ins. 15 yard outs to the far hash. All thrown with anticipation before receivers enter their break.
This is by far the hardest thing for college QBs coming to the NFL to do. In college you can throw to a receiver after he creates separation. In the pros if you wait until your receiver is open you miss out on most of your chances at bigger plays.
The way he sees the field and knows who will come open and to throw it to the space is just uncanny. So exciting as a Niners fan to have a new franchise QB.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Giants - 10-11-2023
Comparing anyone, currently playing anywhere in the NFL, to Montana, the second greatest QB in NFL history (behind only the San Mateo kid) is beyond premature. It is crazy. Montana is on the 49er Mount Rushmore. Purdy has just begun his journey. If he stays healthy and continues on his current path, he should reach base camp in a couple years and then he can begin his ascent. In a decade or so, we can talk about Purdy’s career and his place in history. Until then, Montana stands alone - four rings and countless amazing performances mean something.