Outside Topic Covid-19 considerations - Printable Version
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RE: Covid-19 considerations - chrisk - 03-06-2020
[quote="82lsju" pid='271543' dateline='1583556389']
[quote]Stanford is canceling all in-person class meetings for the last two weeks of winter quarter, Provost Persis Drell announced Friday night, less than three hours after the University announced the first confirmed coronavirus case in a Stanford affiliate.[/quote]
https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/03/06/winter-quarter-classes-finals-to-be-conducted-remotely-due-to-coronavirus-concerns/
Attendance at baseball game tonight was 808.
I assume this means Stanford will not allow any fans at sporting events. Would the NCAA put Stanford in a first round regional elsewhere if teams were reluctant to come to Stanford?
RE: Covid-19 considerations - 2006alum - 03-06-2020
(03-06-2020, 10:23 PM)chrisk Wrote: [quote="82lsju" pid='271543' dateline='1583556389']I suspect by a week and a half from now, the geography-specific query will sadly be moot, and we'll see this repeated all over the country.
Quote:Stanford is canceling all in-person class meetings for the last two weeks of winter quarter, Provost Persis Drell announced Friday night, less than three hours after the University announced the first confirmed coronavirus case in a Stanford affiliate.
https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/03/06/winter-quarter-classes-finals-to-be-conducted-remotely-due-to-coronavirus-concerns/
Attendance at baseball game tonight was 808.
I assume this means Stanford will not allow any fans at sporting events. Would the NCAA put Stanford in a first round regional elsewhere if teams were reluctant to come to Stanford?
RE: Stanford to be half shut down on Monday - akiddoc - 03-07-2020
Addendum: The report I received regarding Stanford students may be exaggerated. Two are in isolation but not necessarily diagnosed. One Stanford employee or contractor positively identified with the virus.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - OutsiderFan - 03-07-2020
Let’s connect some dots here from just what reported case-wise on Friday.
1. Positive test in Indianapolis from guy who was in Boston for a conference.
2. Positive test in Ontario from guy who returned from Las Vegas.
3. FBI Agent in S.F. confirmed positive.
All three of these are community spread and there are surely more not being detected.
4. Grand Princess had tested 46 people and had 21 positives by Friday, including 19 crew.
5. A study in a Singapore hospital proved the virus shed is prodigious and infects 87% of surface area in a room with infected patient (even if air replacement with filters)*
* Cleaning with proper agents does kill the virus, but cleaning every surface in room is required 2x daily.
6. South Korea new cases finally slowing after over 160,000 tests, but CFR less than 1%.
7. Italy same amount of cases, but still growing, with CFR of almost 30% at the moment.
Connecting these data points:
- SARS CoV 2 has insane transmissibility; R0 must be well over 4.
- Only mass testing provides the info needed to take effective spread stopping measures.
- The delta between Italy and South Korea CFR needs an explanation.
We still don’t have enough answers as to what is going on because there is not enough transparency and data being shared with the public, and there is so much mis and disinformation. That said, we know enough that we should be able to conclude the situation needs to be taken quite seriously. We are NOT dealing with the flu here.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - Snorlax94 - 03-07-2020
In terms of the disparities in cfrs, I’d be inclined to only trust the numbers from South Korea because that is the only place that is conducting mass testing. I’d guess the cfr in the US is actually very low but we’re testing almost no one.
Sadly, in the end, I think what’s really going to cost the US are all the screwups in rolling out testing. Just imagine what could happen if the US was the world leader in mass testing, and after containing covid in the US, assisted less-developed nations and helped contain the disease around the world. Even after the US and China contain this within their own borders, less developed countries could keep reinfecting the world.
But at this point, I’d be pleasantly surprised if the US could test millions before the end of March, and a few more weeks of spreading undetected and unmeasured in the dark like the past week could close the door on containing it in just a few regions. Last I heard, they weren’t planning to test all 3600 passengers on that cruise ship outside sf because they don’t have enough tests.
This article on ProPublica digs into the testing problems:
https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test
RE: Covid-19 considerations - 2006alum - 03-07-2020
Yes, it's utterly insane that we're a lagging rather than leading country in terms of testing. You know it's bad when the front page story on Politico is about the CDC's testing failure. Apparently researchers had sequenced COVID-19 by mid January and many countries had testing ready by early Feb., with the WHO sending out testing kits to over 60 countries by late February -- for reasons no one can explain, the U.S. declined WHO testing kits, then when the CDC tried to prepare their own, they failed. Now here we are.
The single most helpful way I've seen this described is a tweet by the doctor who wrote Superbugs:
https://twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1234833720424697862[/tweet]][tweet]https://twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1234833720424697862[/tweet]
Without rapid, widespread testing, we will always be responding to a virus's actions that happened a week ago.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - OutsiderFan - 03-07-2020
This is some really sobering stuff. It's not meant to cause panic, but to make sure everyone is informed, not shocked by how things unfold, and prepared.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909[/tweet]
Oh, and there is this. I'm telling you, if March Madness goes on, the NCAA should be absolutely FLOGGED.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1236122231656378373[/tweet]
RE: Stanford to be half shut down on Monday - 2006alum - 03-07-2020
CNBC reported that a faculty member had tested positive for COVID-19:
(scroll down as it's a live blog)
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/07/coronavirus-live-updates-pope-cancels-large-public-appearances-as-cases-surge-in-europe.html
RE: Covid-19 considerations - magnus - 03-07-2020
Genome sequencing points to the Grand Princess strain being linked to the original WA strain.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/cychiu98/status/1236199201584766976?s=20[/tweet]
Follow @trvrb for additional interesting information on the Seattle area cases.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - M T - 03-07-2020
(03-07-2020, 04:58 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: 6. South Korea new cases finally slowing after over 160,000 tests, but CFR less than 1%.
GISAID shows a lot of unresolved cases in South Korea, but just 135 recovered and 44 deaths.
44/(44+135) = 25% CFR. That's probably high as people die more quickly than people recover.
But calculating CFR by ongoing, but not resolved, cases seems very unrealistic.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - 2006alum - 03-07-2020
Not that we need more reminders of how scary this is, but the situation in Italy is rapidly descending into catastrophe:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/RachelDonadio/status/1236430756412567559?s=20[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Dr_FarrisD/status/1236057723621568512?s=20[/tweet]
Yes, 4.25% death ratio among diagnosed cases, and 9% admitted to ICU.
ETA:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/tancredipalmeri/status/1236464319140855808?s=20[/tweet]
As a result, Most of Northern Italy has been put into total lockdown - no one can leave or enter, all public events and facilities to be shut down until early April.
I strongly suspect our men's and women's basketball teams will be playing their final games of the season in the next 24 hours.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - Snorlax94 - 03-07-2020
(03-07-2020, 06:32 PM)2006alum Wrote: I strongly suspect our men's and women's basketball teams will be playing their final games of the season in the next 24 hours.So maybe I am missing something here but I don’t understand why people think the ncaa tournament should be cancelled, vs just holding empty games.
If need be, test every player and staff member preemptively, have independent doctors check temperatures and symptoms regularly, fly all teams on chartered planes, play in empty pavilions, and if you want to be hardcore, quarantine all players afterwards.
But I think the benefits of holding the ncaas are tremendous — tens of millions of people stay home to watch their tvs. IF you take precautions, the benefits in social distancing vastly outweighs the risks.
Or an I missing something?? I don’t think the problem of basketball games is that you have 20 kids on the same very large court, the problem is you have thousands of fans packed next to each other. Eliminate the in-person fans and I see no problem. It’s weird to suggest cancelling the tournament when tens of thousands of sleep-deprived gamblers come to and depart vegas every day.
RE: Stanford to be half shut down on Monday - newguy - 03-07-2020
while not shocking, i would say that this is big news.
RE: Stanford to be half shut down on Monday - akiddoc - 03-07-2020
(03-07-2020, 10:44 PM)newguy Wrote: while not shocking, i would say that this is big news.
I'm guessing there are now 10,000 to 20,000 infected individuals in the USA. Probably 5000 just in the State of Washington. We've barely tested anyone in the USA and we went over 400 today. Real testing should start this week. Extensive testing in 3 weeks. We're way too slow to respond. At least Stanford is more or less responding.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/doctor-who-treated-first-us-coronavirus-patient-says-covid-19-has-been-circulating-unchecked-for-weeks.html
RE: Stanford to be half shut down on Monday - BostonCard - 03-07-2020
(03-07-2020, 11:38 PM)akiddoc Wrote:(03-07-2020, 10:44 PM)newguy Wrote: while not shocking, i would say that this is big news.
I'm guessing there are now 10,000 to 20,000 infected individuals in the USA. Probably 5000 just in the State of Washington. We've barely tested anyone in the USA and we went over 400 today. Real testing should start this week. Extensive testing in 3 weeks. We're way too slow to respond. At least Stanford is more or less responding.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/doctor-who-treated-first-us-coronavirus-patient-says-covid-19-has-been-circulating-unchecked-for-weeks.html
Thank you for your work. Most of the time, I don’t miss the ICU at all, but there are times like these where I wish I could contribute more being on the front lines.
Stay safe!
BC
RE: Stanford to be half shut down on Monday - akiddoc - 03-08-2020
The Trump administration continues to overrule people who actually know what should be done (scientists):
https://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/Official-White-House-didn-t-want-to-tell-seniors-15114158.php
RE: Covid-19 considerations - akiddoc - 03-08-2020
(03-07-2020, 07:14 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:(03-07-2020, 06:32 PM)2006alum Wrote: I strongly suspect our men's and women's basketball teams will be playing their final games of the season in the next 24 hours.So maybe I am missing something here but I don’t understand why people think the ncaa tournament should be cancelled, vs just holding empty games.
If need be, test every player and staff member preemptively, have independent doctors check temperatures and symptoms regularly, fly all teams on chartered planes, play in empty pavilions, and if you want to be hardcore, quarantine all players afterwards.
But I think the benefits of holding the ncaas are tremendous — tens of millions of people stay home to watch their tvs. IF you take precautions, the benefits in social distancing vastly outweighs the risks.
Or an I missing something?? I don’t think the problem of basketball games is that you have 20 kids on the same very large court, the problem is you have thousands of fans packed next to each other. Eliminate the in-person fans and I see no problem. It’s weird to suggest cancelling the tournament when tens of thousands of sleep-deprived gamblers come to and depart vegas every day.
It takes one player on one team with the virus to make a lot of kids sick, and possibly one or some could die. It doesn't matter what precautions we take, we could easily miss someone.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - 2006alum - 03-08-2020
I would strongly encourage everyone to read this thread from a reporter in Italy:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/DellAnnaLuca/status/1236459870557102080[/tweet]
Remember: Italy had just 9 cases a bit over two weeks ago. Two weeks later, they are closing borders. I'm probably more prone to worry than the average person, but I would not generally think of myself as a chicken little alarmist type. Nevertheless:
I would encourage anyone reading this to stock up now for at least two months' worth of prescription drugs and any essential medicines. I don't see how there aren't significant supply chain disruptions in the coming weeks. Me personally, I'm also stocking up on enough basic essentials to get through a prolonged stretch (not just toilet paper and hand sanitizer, but things like cereals, beans and rice, canned soup, frozen fruit, etc.). Note that most of the places the virus hit early and where it spread widely (China, Italy, Iran, and South Korea) have now imposed lockdowns and quarantines at the city-to-regional level, lasting for weeks (China's are into their second month). I don't see how they're the last countries to have to resort to this. (And worst case scenario, you have saved your future self grocery shopping.)
We are more like Italy than we are like China in terms of the state's capacity for social control and the population's willingness to follow orders, and the Italian experience is beyond sobering. Our healthcare system is better, overall, we're wealthier, and we do not have as high a concentration of elderly among our population. But I imagine there will be pockets in this country that look more like Italy than not, and who's to say yours won't be one of them? (We also have very limited border control capacities within the United States, so it's not even clear whether we could pull off a geographic quarantine if we wanted to.)
Now is also the time to have this conversation with any elderly or high-risk relatives. Make sure they have what they need to withstand 4-6 weeks without leaving the house. Like a lot of Stanford alums, many of my older relatives are in the Bay Area, which has been higher risk earlier due to the nature of the spread, and after calm, lengthy conversations with me over the past several weeks, they've already been staying in for the past week, and I've been checking in on them by phone daily or near daily because social distancing == alienating social isolation.
BTW: Some folks joked that San Francisco declared an emergency before there was even a diagnosed case, but yesterday the city blanketed our neighborhood with door tags in four language explaining COVID-19, what to do and not to do, and how to get more information. Every municipality in the country should be doing that right now. I am confident it would not have happened this swiftly if they hadn't made discretionary manpower and funding available to be directed towards these kinds of efforts.
BTW: Of all people, former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has had one of the more level-headed and thoughtful explanations of what we (i.e., individuals, state and local governments, the federal government, etc.) should be doing right now:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1236473220783636481[/tweet]
Sorry for the alarm. I really hope this post ages poorly and we can all mock my alarmist tendencies in a few weeks' time.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - Mick - 03-08-2020
Here's a pretty good source for statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Amazing how quickly my hygiene habits have changed. I'm 57, male, diabetes, heart disease and I fly regularly. Hope I'm here next month, LOL.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - OutsiderFan - 03-08-2020
Where you are now 2006alum, I was three weeks ago. Not trying to pat myself on the back, just been following this very closely since January.
I saw a KPIX news report on YouTube from last night. Guy was reporting on store traffic and supply levels and actually said this: It looks like store traffic is down today, like people have already gotten over the shock and aren't panicking anymore.
While it is good to not panic, you better have some significant stores of food where you live, because you very well could be locked inside for weeks. Stores may have their supplies interrupted because the people who would be producing and delivering it could be home too. There simply won't be enough food to go around with supply cuts.
I just read a report from a hospital nurse in Missouri, where they had no cases at the time she made it (St. Louis got on the board after posted), but still had made plans for dealing with it. Here's the terrifying thing. Her 200 bed hospital is ALREADY at capacity, with no Coronavirus patients yet.
This isn't about you have to be spooked about going out in public per se, it's about making sure the virus doesn't collapse our medical system.
The fatality rate will go way up if there are more people needing serious intervention than there is capacity. The economy must take some kind of hit to preserve the healthcare system so it can function.
This is why we as a global human society must do everything possible to slow the spread. I just read 10% of Italy's health care workers are infected. Think if the strain this puts on the healthy health care providers. China had so many sideline at one point some of the workers doing double duty collapsed from exhaustion. If SXSW can be cancelled, March Madness sure AF can.
No matter what happens, it's going to be catastrophically bad, worse than anything any of us have ever experienced. So many hourly workers living paycheck to paycheck, giving us the illusion of low unemployment, are going to lose their jobs. They aren't going to be able to pay rent. Landlords with mortgages to pay won't be paid. Then there are all the people who do need medical treatment and who aren't made of money and/or aren't adequately insured, who will be faced with crushing medical bills. Insurance companies are going to have to pay claims without people paying them. It's just going to be horrific if we don't take the most drastic measures to stop spread when things aren that bad.