End of Pac12? - Printable Version

End of Pac12? - Printable Version

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RE: End of Pac12? - needle - 07-04-2022

(07-04-2022, 08:40 PM)fullmetal Wrote:
(07-04-2022, 12:03 PM)Maple Leaf Wrote: Wonder what coaches at usc-ucla are the most ticked off by the move to the big 10?

Do the water polo teams care? They'll probably end up as affiliates in their prior conferences.

Rowing won't be happy, lol. They won't be in contention for the conference championship *and* they'll have ridiculous in-conference travel burdens. Plus they'll keep losing to the Pac-12 powers to whom they previously lost.

Volleyball really won't be happy (have fun with Nebraska and Penn State, lol).

I'd like to know what coaches really think about the move. I saw that the UCLA baseball coach put out a statement supporting the move to the Big 10.

RE: End of Pac12? - Phogge - 07-04-2022

What else can he say?

RE: End of Pac12? - cardcrimson - 07-04-2022

(07-04-2022, 08:40 PM)fullmetal Wrote:
(07-04-2022, 12:03 PM)Maple Leaf Wrote: Wonder what coaches at usc-ucla are the most ticked off by the move to the big 10?

Do the water polo teams care? They'll probably end up as affiliates in their prior conferences.

Rowing won't be happy, lol. They won't be in contention for the conference championship *and* they'll have ridiculous in-conference travel burdens. Plus they'll keep losing to the Pac-12 powers to whom they previously lost.

Volleyball really won't be happy (have fun with Nebraska and Penn State, lol).

Water Polo for USC and UCLA is in the MPSF, and is not affected by the move to the Big 10. Stanford and Cal would be the same. . . .

RE: End of Pac12? - BostonCard - 07-05-2022

(07-04-2022, 11:21 AM)TonyLima Wrote: The irreplaceable Jon Wilner Has some thoughts.

I don’t know that they were worth a whole lot.

BC

RE: End of Pac12? - OutsiderFan - 07-05-2022

Wilner has always hated Stanford and Cal and is rooting for them to be left out of the latest media rights grab. I have a hunch why, but I'm not going to share that now. Nobody has any insight into Stanford's thinking. Some assume Stanford is above it all and will beg out of major college sports. Others look at Stanford as inclined to leverage its value as an athletic and academic powerhouse into the Big Ten, maybe even be key to luring Notre Dame.

As for the "sanctity of tradition," it's total B.S. College sports has been going through evolutions that break "traditions" for decades. Anyone heard of the Southwest Conference? Or maybe the Pac-8 and Big-8? How about the SEC before a football playoff? Might I interest you in the Big 10 when it had 10 members? How about the Big East as a Football power? Utah has gone from the WAC, to MWC, to Pac-12, to now maybe the Big XII in what, 30 years? Colorado has been in the Big 8, Big XII, and Pac-12, and looks to be moving to Big XII again. Even San Jose State was in something called the California Coast Conference, before the Big West, WAC, and current MWC affiliation.

Now it is true that some groupings of schools have been together longer than others, but the reality is everyone operates in a market that determines how they are valued and how they want to compete. In a capitalist economy, the small fish get eaten by the bigger fish. I just don't get all the "it's so special and the money is ruining it" angst. The money has been "ruining it" for my entire lifetime. Absent regulations the public wants in place to keep status quo, college sports alignments will always be fluid until the market has settled. To me, the market has for sure decided Washington State and Oregon State do not matter. That's a tough pill for those institutions, but it's just life in a market economy.

The only thing I feel confident about in terms of how things shake out is the Pac being dead after 2023. Never imagined it would be the first to go, but when you consider all the factors, it probably was always going to the be first of the Power 5 to die. The ACC will be next, IMO.

RE: End of Pac12? - Card10Fan - 07-05-2022

Rumor this AM is that BigTen is targeting 4 schools:
Oregon, Stanford, UNC, Notre Dame

As much as people are downers on this board, our name continues to come up for Big10 expansion. Will likely know more this week although everyone loves to speculate.

RE: End of Pac12? - Softball Fan - 07-05-2022

(07-05-2022, 06:38 AM)Card10Fan Wrote: Rumor this AM is that BigTen is targeting 4 schools:
Oregon, Stanford, UNC, Notre Dame

As much as people are downers on this board, our name continues to come up for Big10 expansion.

Yes, that's what I've been seeing. As much as some Cardboarders insist its all about money and Fox Sports controls everything, I don't agree with that. Don't all Big 10 members have to sign off on adding members. If they do, they are academic institutions and college presidents do have some consideration for academics. Also Notre Dame might have a preference for Stanford. Of course it's all speculation.

RE: End of Pac12? - TonyLima - 07-05-2022

(07-05-2022, 03:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote:
(07-04-2022, 11:21 AM)TonyLima Wrote: The irreplaceable Jon Wilner Has some thoughts.

I don’t know that they were worth a whole lot.

BC

YMMV.

RE: End of Pac12? - needle - 07-05-2022

In all likelihood...

1.) Two to six members of the Pac *this week* join the Big 12.

2.) Notre Dame *this week* joins the Big 10 or announces it will remain independent "for the time being."

3.) Should ND join the Big 10, the SEC moves aggressively to raid the ACC for Clemson and, likely, Florida State.

4.) Should FSU and Clemson bite the bullet and pay the monetary price for leaving the ACC, most of the sizable number of remaining ACC schools seek to join up with either the Big 12 or, should there be enough numbers out West, some of the remaining Pac schools.

5.) I think it will be unavoidable that schools like Oregon State, WSU, NC State and Wake Forest lose status as members of "Power" conferences. This *might* lead some state lawmakers to put up a fuss. Ultimately, I don't think they have the clout to really do much.

Stanford, unfortunately, has not shown itself recently as an institution to be much of a leader when it comes to the direction of college athletics, and I don't see that changing given the track record of who's in charge. In all likelihood, the university will take what is given to it, whether it's the option of joining the Big 10 or taking a seat on the leaky life raft that's the Pac-ACC.

Given the distinct possibility that a.) ND joins the Big 10 w/Oregon as its partner and b.) FSU and Clemson stay put for now in the ACC, this would leave Stanford along with Kal and probably Washington to cobble together a humiliating existence as quasi-independents. Don't see any of these three schools joining the Big 12, and there just may not be other options.

RE: End of Pac12? - Maple Leaf - 07-05-2022

Try this one for size:

ND and Rice (yes Rice as in Texas recruiting) join the Pac 10 making Pac 12

Pac 12 teams will play only 8 conference games per season, leaving 4 out of conference games, which allows ND to play Navy, the condoms and two others.

When ND plays Oregon St and Washington St on the West Coast the games are played in Eugene and Seattle respectively.

NBC will become the TV/Streaming provider for all Pac 12 sports, including the Olympic groups sports, which are very well represented by the Pac 12.

Now back to scheduling my colonoscopy.

RE: End of Pac12? - OutsiderFan - 07-05-2022

The more I think about it, the more reasons there are to believe Stanford will join the Big Ten. Here's why:

- Stanford has put out no statement about the conference shuffling; no commitment to the Pac whatever, no statement about not going to participate in major college sports any longer.

- A watered down Pac or Big XII will have too many schools not academically on par with Stanford.

- Stanford would be a great get for the Big Ten in terms of having the #1 academic and athletic school in the country.

- I do believe Stanford going to the Big Ten is leverage to get Notre Dame to some degree.

- Stanford's media rights are estimated at about $45M now apparently (consultant John Canzano sourced)*

- I think competing at the highest level of college sports is important to Stanford alums and boosters, else it wouldn't lead the NCAA in championships.

- Stanford isn't a package deal with Cal, and Stanford can always play Cal in sports out of conference.

* Maybe not to the same degree as USCLA, but Stanford may not want to support Oregon State, Washington State, etc. If Stanford stays in the Pac, this is what it would be doing. Stanford's media rights are greater than many Big Ten schools on their own, but can't be accessed unless in the Big Ten. If Stanford wants to stay at the top level of college sports, it will be leaving money on the table staying in the Pac, and also falling behind competitively. So if staying in athletics at all, joining the Big Ten is the only answer for Stanford, IMO.

One comment on "going Ivy.' That's doable when you've got several elite private schools relatively near you. Name the next one closest to Stanford that even has an athletics program, then the next closest two.

RE: End of Pac12? - cardcrimson - 07-05-2022

(07-05-2022, 08:41 AM)Maple Leaf Wrote: Try this one for size:

ND and Rice (yes Rice as in Texas recruiting) join the Pac 10 making Pac 12

Pac 12 teams will play only 8 conference games per season, leaving 4 out of conference games, which allows ND to play Navy, the condoms and two others.

When ND plays Oregon St and Washington St on the West Coast the games are played in Eugene and Seattle respectively.

NBC will become the TV/Streaming provider for all Pac 12 sports, including the Olympic groups sports, which are very well represented by the Pac 12.

Now back to scheduling my colonoscopy.

Didn't I read that NBC just cancelled the Olympic channel?

RE: End of Pac12? - Goose - 07-05-2022

(07-05-2022, 05:45 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: As for the "sanctity of tradition," it's total B.S. College sports has been going through evolutions that break "traditions" for decades. Anyone heard of the Southwest Conference? Or maybe the Pac-8 and Big-8? How about the SEC before a football playoff? Might I interest you in the Big 10 when it had 10 members? How about the Big East as a Football power? Utah has gone from the WAC, to MWC, to Pac-12, to now maybe the Big XII in what, 30 years? Colorado has been in the Big 8, Big XII, and Pac-12, and looks to be moving to Big XII again. Even San Jose State was in something called the California Coast Conference, before the Big West, WAC, and current MWC affiliation.

OF, your initial analysis is correct if taken literally. The key word is "evolutions". Change in the past was indeed constant but was relatively slow. This allowed the "traditions" to stretch and morph at a rate that didn't break them. The problem in recent years isn't that there is change, but rather 1) the changes are more disruptive and 2) the rate of major change being so fast that traditions cannot accommodate it. The changes today are much more "radical" in that the geographic footprint is no longer constraining. The step from the PAC-8 to the PAC-10 was not a revolution. Ditto the PAC-10 to the PAC-12, although it was more so. The two Arizona schools were geographically close to other PAC-10 schools and lots of students from the PAC-12 footprint attended them. They were "familiar" to most people who followed west-coast football. Accepting them broke nothing because "uneven" scheduling kept the rivalry games intact. Colorado to the PAC-12 not as much, and it is a much more distant school. Many didn't like the move. Utah's journey over a 30 year period among conferences that, until the step to the PAC-12, were basically the same geographic footprint and were mostly differences without a distinction. It also took 30 years.

Quote:Now it is true that some groupings of schools have been together longer than others, but the reality is everyone operates in a market that determines how they are valued and how they want to compete. In a capitalist economy, the small fish get eaten by the bigger fish. I just don't get all the "it's so special and the money is ruining it" angst. The money has been "ruining it" for my entire lifetime. Absent regulations the public wants in place to keep status quo, college sports alignments will always be fluid until the market has settled. To me, the market has for sure decided Washington State and Oregon State do not matter. That's a tough pill for those institutions, but it's just life in a market economy.

The only thing I feel confident about in terms of how things shake out is the Pac being dead after 2023. Never imagined it would be the first to go, but when you consider all the factors, it probably was always going to the be first of the Power 5 to die. The ACC will be next, IMO.

What you miss is that while the market has always been a factor in grouping of schools it was historically not the overwhelming factor. Making "big" money on football just wasn't a necessity or even expected. The market has also changed radically in the last 30 years and even more so in the last 50 years. The market can't "settle" under the current model because the parameters of that market change so fast that long-term strategies simply won't work. Everybody is reacting to what they see as "the trend". FOX and ESPN are the "big players" right now. In 5 years, will that still be so? How sure are we?

RE: End of Pac12? - Phogge - 07-05-2022

The only statement that I am aware of is Muir's letter or email to the Board of the Buck/Cardinal Club. It's been made public on whatever the hell used to be called Facebook.

And isn't it time to dump the "cardinal" nickname? Robber Barons would have been extremely cool.

RE: End of Pac12? - cardcrimson - 07-05-2022

(07-05-2022, 09:43 AM)Phogge Wrote: The only statement that I am aware of is Muir's letter or email to the Board of the Buck/Cardinal Club. It's been made public on whatever the hell used to be called Facebook.

And isn't it time to dump the "cardinal" nickname? Robber Barons would have been extremely cool.

Agree. Love the Robber Barons. But of course his eminence Don Kennedy, vetoed that option and edicted the color. . . .

RE: End of Pac12? - Mick - 07-05-2022

(07-05-2022, 09:05 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: - I do believe Stanford going to the Big Ten is leverage to get Notre Dame to some degree.
- Stanford isn't a package deal with Cal, and Stanford can always play Cal in sports out of conference.
- I think competing at the highest level of college sports is important to Stanford alums and boosters, else it wouldn't lead the NCAA in championships.
- Stanford would be a great get for the Big Ten in terms of having the #1 academic and athletic school in the country.

Stanford and Notre Dame, as a pairing, actually make sense to me. I don't think Cal and Stanford are equals any more. I remember when I was a kid, flipping through the Big Game program, Stanford and Cal had an even record across the history of the Big Game and even points scored were only separated by a few touchdowns. Since 1961, Stanford is 41-20-1 against Cal and 10-2 in the last 12 years. Separately, I don't think Cal is as attractive to the Big Ten as ND and Stanford, although I think all three would lift the "academic" portion of the Big Ten brand. And as an aside, if the Big 10 becomes the "academic" conference, what is the SEC? Totally agree that Stanford is the most attractive athletic/academic brand, outside of football, and does carry the $45 mms. weight.

(07-05-2022, 09:05 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: * Maybe not to the same degree as USCLA, but Stanford may not want to support Oregon State, Washington State, etc.
- A watered down Pac or Big XII will have too many schools not academically on par with Stanford.

I've thought for many years that if you looked objectively at the academic rankings of the Pac-12 schools, some are great academically, some not so much. Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA are all ranked between #6 and #27 in USNWR. Then there's a drop to Washington (#59, which almost SCU's level at #55), then another drop to Oregon, Utah and Colorado, all at #99 (similar to Auburn and UC-Merced) and Arizona (#103) and Arizona State (#117) which are similar to Temple, Illinois and UC-Santa Cruz. Then, there's a greater dropoff to Oregon State (#162/Hofstra, Kansas State) and Washington State (#179/Houston/Montclair/Rowan).

(07-05-2022, 09:05 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: One comment on "going Ivy.' That's doable when you've got several elite private schools relatively near you. Name the next one closest to Stanford that even has an athletics program, then the next closest two.

Solid point. Outside of USCLA, it's Cal and CalTech that's even in the ballpark, academically speaking. Also, the Ivy league academic requirements are (to be candid) much more stringent for their student athletes on average than for Stanford student athletes. Consequently, the Ivy league athletes tend to be considerably worse athletically than those at Stanford.

So I agree...Stanford belongs with the Big 10, ultimately.

RE: End of Pac12? - OutsiderFan - 07-05-2022

Shot: [tweet]https://twitter.com/pac12/status/1544350910838501377[/tweet]

Chaser: [tweet]https://twitter.com/ShehanJeyarajah/status/1544357211849330688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1544357211849330688%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=[/tweet]

RE: End of Pac12? - Grad Fan - 07-05-2022

Sounds like Stanford is pretty high on the Big 10's list
https://twitter.com/Jeff_Ermann/status/1544021229472043010

RE: End of Pac12? - BigJohn043 - 07-05-2022

(07-05-2022, 08:15 AM)needle Wrote: In all likelihood...

1.) Two to six members of the Pac *this week* join the Big 12.

2.) Notre Dame *this week* joins the Big 10 or announces it will remain independent "for the time being."

3.) Should ND join the Big 10, the SEC moves aggressively to raid the ACC for Clemson and, likely, Florida State.

4.) Should FSU and Clemson bite the bullet and pay the monetary price for leaving the ACC, most of the sizable number of remaining ACC schools seek to join up with either the Big 12 or, should there be enough numbers out West, some of the remaining Pac schools.

5.) I think it will be unavoidable that schools like Oregon State, WSU, NC State and Wake Forest lose status as members of "Power" conferences. This *might* lead some state lawmakers to put up a fuss. Ultimately, I don't think they have the clout to really do much.

Stanford, unfortunately, has not shown itself recently as an institution to be much of a leader when it comes to the direction of college athletics, and I don't see that changing given the track record of who's in charge. In all likelihood, the university will take what is given to it, whether it's the option of joining the Big 10 or taking a seat on the leaky life raft that's the Pac-ACC.

Given the distinct possibility that a.) ND joins the Big 10 w/Oregon as its partner and b.) FSU and Clemson stay put for now in the ACC, this would leave Stanford along with Kal and probably Washington to cobble together a humiliating existence as quasi-independents. Don't see any of these three schools joining the Big 12, and there just may not be other options.

Are Florida and South Carolina going to sign off on FSU & Clemson. Color me skeptical.

Even without FSU & Clemson, the ACC is very viable. Probably still a more marketable conference than the B12.

And FWIW, I think the P10 holds together unless another couple schools bolt for the B10. Schools have to talk to the B12 but that seems like a poor solution.....

RE: End of Pac12? - McKenwood - 07-05-2022

Quote:I don't know what the Stanford administration is thinking, but I do think we have some clues based on past history.

1) Stanford was once the school that was willing to enforce strict admissions criteria on its athletes even at the expense of success in football.

2) Stanford was once the school that was willing to cut numerous sports ostensibly for budget reasons but more probably because the percentage of student athletes was--in the minds of administration and faculty--excessive compared with the relatively small undergraduate student body.

3) Stanford feels far, far more connected to schools like the Ivies, MIT, CalTech and U Chicago than it does to most of the other schools of the Pac 12/10, which (other than Cal) never had much in common with Stanford's mission as an elite university.

In my mind, Stanford athletics reached a zenith when a rare combination came along of a supportive Admissions director (after 2005), competent Athletics Director (before 2012), a couple of football coaches who fit in their own ways within the unique Stanford culture (after 2007,) and an avid donor with very deep pockets who endowed pretty much every coaching job at the university (2006-2013 were Arillaga's biggest gifts.) The identity and mission of the university was never going to deeply embrace athletics, but so long as athletics could pay for itself and have such splendid success the apathy abated and the intellectual crowd tolerated (and even enjoyed) the sideshow of sports. But this should never have concealed the fact that the culture was never, ever, going to be able to make the least sacrifice to the Stanford image as an ethical, elite, academic institution.

With the latest developments--too numerous but all discussed at length on this board--I have a hard time imagining a way forward that will preserve the wonderful success we had with our athletics program over the last couple of decades. External forces seem arrayed against our unique model. But we also lack the internal leadership that we had at the beginning of this heyday. I will hope that something gets worked out, since I want to enjoy the next couple of decades of retired life watching Stanford athletics flourish. But I think I know the Stanford culture quite well, and it leaves me less and less optimistic. I will be ecstatic to be wrong.

Best summary Stanford current thinking (indifference?) to this current crisis I have seen. MTL and Drell are probably on vacation and disappointed they get sucked back in again to another AD centered challenge. Stanford is really in a hole with the current leadership at the top and in the AD. With Muir I would use the Costanza test i.e. do the opposite of what he recommends.

Given where major college football is going (NIL, players as employees, farcical coaching salaries) I would probably use this as an opportunity to exit this version of the game and move down a level in football. However given the importance of high level athletics to Stanford's past and future identity I would allocate what is necessary from the endowment to preserve and protect all the other sports (including MBB and WBB) playing at a high level. Get out from the fiction of football covering for all of these other sports and protect their future by allocating the requisite funds to make them whole. With this model Stanford will be in the strongest economic position of any of the Universities offering these sports and not dependent on the crumbs from football's table.

I don't take this approach lightly have been a Stanford sports fan (primarily football and MBB) for 52 years. The lack of leadership by the NCAA, Pac-12 and Stanford has brought us to this point so there are only mediocre and expensive choices left. I have no interest in seeing Stanford continue on its current football path of mediocrity whether in the Pac-12 or the BiG10. Given Stanford's unwillingness to play the "game" I don't see a positive outcome here. Who wants to be the equivalent of Vanderbilt in the SEC?