Outside Topic Covid-19 considerations - Printable Version
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RE: Covid-19 considerations - burger - 03-09-2020
(03-08-2020, 10:41 PM)akiddoc Wrote: Once the central government realized the extent of what was happening, they acted decisively. Not ideally early, but once they realized the threat they did what needed to be done. We have known about the threat for a while, watching and criticizing the Chinese, and sat placidly allowing it to proceed here.I would just add two things to this:
Finally allowing this statement (quote from NYT):
"On Sunday, the leading U.S. expert on infectious diseases, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, said that it was possible that regional lockdowns could become necessary and recommended that those at greatest risk — the elderly and those with underlying health conditions — abstain from travel."
Still not decisive enough.
Ted Cruz and others with varying degrees of contact:
https://www.sfgate.com/news/texas/article/DC-church-reports-its-rector-tests-positive-for-15115200.php
1) I'd bet a large amount of money that the US will end up with far more cases than China.
2) A new study (can't find it now, sorry) showed that the spread of the disease only slowed when China put their draconian quarantine into place. Voluntary measures like "social distancing" and requiring masks had little effect. That does not bode well for the US because I don't think that politicians here have the gumption to do what is going to be required.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - yvonne - 03-09-2020
No one knows more about monitoring information's spread (crisis informatics) like Kate Starbird. Here's her perspective on what we as consumers and purveyors of crisis information should consider while evaluating information about Covid-19.
https://medium.com/@katestarbird/reflecting-on-the-covid-19-infodemic-as-a-crisis-informatics-researcher-ce0656fa4d0a
RE: Covid-19 considerations - cardcrimson - 03-09-2020
(03-08-2020, 10:41 PM)akiddoc Wrote:(03-08-2020, 10:29 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I wouldn’t give the Chinese too much credit. the whole crisis may have been averted had the Chinese Communist Party not hidden the epidemic back when it was first identified and allowed doctors to communicate their concerns instead of censuring them for speaking out.
BC
Once the central government realized the extent of what was happening, they acted decisively. Not ideally early, but once they realized the threat they did what needed to be done. We have known about the threat for a while, watching and criticizing the Chinese, and sat placidly allowing it to proceed here.
Finally allowing this statement (quote from NYT):
"On Sunday, the leading U.S. expert on infectious diseases, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, said that it was possible that regional lockdowns could become necessary and recommended that those at greatest risk — the elderly and those with underlying health conditions — abstain from travel."
Still not decisive enough.
Ted Cruz and others with varying degrees of contact:
https://www.sfgate.com/news/texas/article/DC-church-reports-its-rector-tests-positive-for-15115200.php
If we put shelter in place requirements on the society at large, how many people die because they can't get the services they need? What happens in elder care facilities? Dialysis facilities? Etc. . . .Eventually food and water and possibly power will become scarce, right? As much, if not all, of that is managed at the local level, what happens and who is responsible to figure it out?
RE: Covid-19 considerations - BostonCard - 03-09-2020
(03-08-2020, 10:41 PM)akiddoc Wrote:(03-08-2020, 10:29 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I wouldn’t give the Chinese too much credit. the whole crisis may have been averted had the Chinese Communist Party not hidden the epidemic back when it was first identified and allowed doctors to communicate their concerns instead of censuring them for speaking out.
BC
Once the central government realized the extent of what was happening, they acted decisively. Not ideally early, but once they realized the threat they did what needed to be done. We have known about the threat for a while, watching and criticizing the Chinese, and sat placidly allowing it to proceed here.
I mean, sure, but part of the goal of a competent government is to "realize the extent of what's happening" early when it can still be contained. The CCP loves to deflect blame by blaming "local officials", as if the local party is different than the central party. The whole system is meant to stifle dissent and quiet anyone who raises alarms. And for that reason, the virus spread through the community while the CCP was insisting that there was no human-to-human transmission. The significant response after the virus already became widespread may have been appropriate, but when you said "Only the Chinese [and Saudis] seem to be the only ones on earth willing to take the steps necessary to stop this." I disagree because the "necessary steps" didn't happen until the horse was out of the barn, so to speak.
Note, none of my criticisms of the CCP are meant to absolve the current administration, but I wouldn't cite China as a model that we should follow.
BC
RE: Covid-19 considerations - stupac2 - 03-09-2020
(03-09-2020, 07:30 AM)burger Wrote: 2) A new study (can't find it now, sorry) showed that the spread of the disease only slowed when China put their draconian quarantine into place. Voluntary measures like "social distancing" and requiring masks had little effect. That does not bode well for the US because I don't think that politicians here have the gumption to do what is going to be required.
Was that a study or just, like, a tweet? Because I was looking into this and China's count of cases did deflect on the same day as the quarantine was implemented, but I'm not sure that's meaningful because there should be a delay between the quarantine going into effect and the curve bending (because you're still catching up to transmission that happened beforehand). In light of a few posts upthread that has me wondering if those numbers are legit, or if someone somewhere decided to massage them to say "look, the quarantine is working!"
We've done some very minor stocking up, and should probably do more. It really doesn't help that we may begin major construction on our house in the next few weeks... (And it's not something we should just postpone, because it's extremely necessary foundation repairs, it's basically trading whatever risks doing it would have for coronavirus vs an earthquake completely taking us off our foundation. Not clear which is worse...)
RE: Covid-19 considerations - cardcrimson - 03-09-2020
Any thoughts on vaccine development? This looked promising, but of course there was some disagreement on the efficacy.
https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/israel-migal-covid-19-vaccine/
RE: Covid-19 considerations - M T - 03-09-2020
(03-09-2020, 08:09 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: If we put shelter in place requirements on the society at large, how many people die because they can't get the services they need? What happens in elder care facilities? Dialysis facilities? Etc. . . .Eventually food and water and possibly power will become scarce, right? As much, if not all, of that is managed at the local level, what happens and who is responsible to figure it out?
I expect those who have been tasked to plan for these have come up with what needs to still function in a pandemic. Just some thoughts:
Health services, but only the emergency & essential ones (for some definition of essential). Optional procedures would be postponed.
Food supply services. This situation will last for months. You obviously can't shut down grocery stores, nor the distribution system that gets the groceries there, nor the food production system (for instance, General. Mills). Note that some of our food is imported, so that shipping may need to continue.
Infrastructure: Telecommunication, Power, water, sewage & trash. Electricians & plumbers may be needed for emergency repairs.
Housing, to some extent. Room & board still needs to provide meals. Apartments need to run, but maybe not motels. Care facilities still need to provide care. (elder, orphan, disabled, rehab, homeless, ...)
Law Enforcement (and/or military law). Jails & prisons.
Military.
Governing bodies should probably continue, but things like permits & licenses & courts may be suspended. What about tax prep & collection?
Essential financial services (to move money around).
Transportation support: gasoline, etc. for the above services, but most gas stations would shut down.
Emergency construction repairs & supplies would need to function - Consider the tornado in Tennessee
Weather prediction.
News
RE: Covid-19 considerations - burger - 03-09-2020
(03-09-2020, 08:46 AM)stupac2 Wrote:(03-09-2020, 07:30 AM)burger Wrote: 2) A new study (can't find it now, sorry) showed that the spread of the disease only slowed when China put their draconian quarantine into place. Voluntary measures like "social distancing" and requiring masks had little effect. That does not bode well for the US because I don't think that politicians here have the gumption to do what is going to be required.
Was that a study or just, like, a tweet? Because I was looking into this and China's count of cases did deflect on the same day as the quarantine was implemented, but I'm not sure that's meaningful because there should be a delay between the quarantine going into effect and the curve bending (because you're still catching up to transmission that happened beforehand). In light of a few posts upthread that has me wondering if those numbers are legit, or if someone somewhere decided to massage them to say "look, the quarantine is working
Actual study, which I can't find now*. They compared the R0 (intrinsic rate of spread) of the virus before and after the quarantine. Before was like 2-3ish (very fast). After was 0.3. Any value below 1 means the virus will eventually (though maybe not quickly) stop spreading.
Also, given that entire cities in China have been turned into de facto prisons, I don't see how the virus would be spreading. And the rate of spread in the US and Europe is consistent with what was reported early on in Wuhan.
*The number of new studies that has come out of this is amazing and growing quickly. This makes it very difficult to search for specific articles.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - Goose - 03-09-2020
I find it interesting that there are so many people here who know exactly what needs to be done in a situation that is really quite unique. History is replete with examples of "the scientists" giving advice that turned out not to be so good when all the facts were in. They did the best they could with what they knew at the time, but they had no opportunity to run years of testing before they made a recommendation.
A similar situation is the quote "War is too important a decision to be left to the generals". In theory, we elect people who can make good, reasoned decisions based on all the facts and the trade-offs in whatever actions they choose to take or not take. Unfortunately, the electorate has in many cases selected people on other basis, which results in "the public" not really trusting the decision makers. A clever 1 minute sound bite in November doesn't equate to a good tough decision in February. It has been a while, IMHO, since the voters were aware of that. We are fortunate that our federated system has allowed the state and local institutions to participate in making many of the decisions and providing in some cases better answers than the government in Washington did. This is not to say these institutions are perfect either, but having more minds on the problem means we aren't totally reliant on an overwhelmed CDC to solve all the problems.
We will never know what the "optimal" set of actions to combat this problem is, because we can't do the experiment of all possible sets of actions. We collectively get one shot at it. Hopefully, what "we" do will be "good enough".
RE: Covid-19 considerations - burger - 03-09-2020
(03-09-2020, 09:08 AM)M T Wrote: I expect those who have been tasked to plan for these have come up with what needs to still function in a pandemic. Just some thoughts:I got a good laugh out of that. Weren't those people fired? I've seen no indications of such a plan despite months of lead time that our government had while this was going crazy in China.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - BostonCard - 03-09-2020
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/208354
Amazingly, we can learn from what worked for fighting the flu pandemic in 1918.
Quote:There were 115 340 excess pneumonia and influenza deaths (EDR, 500/100 000 population) in the 43 cities during the 24 weeks analyzed. Every city adopted at least 1 of the 3 major categories of nonpharmaceutical interventions. School closure and public gathering bans activated concurrently represented the most common combination implemented in 34 cities (79%); this combination had a median duration of 4 weeks (range, 1-10 weeks) and was significantly associated with reductions in weekly EDR. The cities that implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions earlier had greater delays in reaching peak mortality (Spearman r = −0.74, P < .001), lower peak mortality rates (Spearman r = 0.31, P = .02), and lower total mortality (Spearman r = 0.37, P = .008). There was a statistically significant association between increased duration of nonpharmaceutical interventions and a reduced total mortality burden (Spearman r = −0.39, P = .005).
It is time to close the schools and ban public gatherings in addition to strict isolation of cases, suspected cases, and their contacts.
BC
RE: Covid-19 considerations - Goose - 03-09-2020
(03-09-2020, 09:26 AM)burger Wrote: I got a good laugh out of that. Weren't those people fired? I've seen no indications of such a plan despite months of lead time that our government had while this was going crazy in China.
I am quite sure there is a plan. It may be "left over" from some previous effort, but there is a plan. Whether it is is a good plan, or even a possible plan, is another matter. One thing is for sure. Any plan that hasn't been practiced won't be well executed. Any plan that the rank and file haven't even seen before will be very difficult to make function. Since none of that has been done, having a plan will be almost irrelevant. Everybody will be winging it anyway. Hopefully the "plan" is based on Auftragstaktik as opposed to detailed step by step actions, because without practice that never works.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - cardcrimson - 03-09-2020
(03-09-2020, 09:26 AM)burger Wrote:FYI, CDC's budget has actually gone up over the last few years.(03-09-2020, 09:08 AM)M T Wrote: I expect those who have been tasked to plan for these have come up with what needs to still function in a pandemic. Just some thoughts:I got a good laugh out of that. Weren't those people fired? I've seen no indications of such a plan despite months of lead time that our government had while this was going crazy in China.
https://cdn.factcheck.org/UploadedFiles/cdc-budget.jpg
https://www.cdc.gov/about/report/cdc-funding.html
One would have thought that after SARS, Swine Flu, and MERS, somebody in the CDC would have prepared for an epidemic and not just waited for one to react.
(03-09-2020, 09:42 AM)Goose Wrote:(03-09-2020, 09:26 AM)burger Wrote: I got a good laugh out of that. Weren't those people fired? I've seen no indications of such a plan despite months of lead time that our government had while this was going crazy in China.
I am quite sure there is a plan. It may be "left over" from some previous effort, but there is a plan. Whether it is is a good plan, or even a possible plan, is another matter. One thing is for sure. Any plan that hasn't been practiced won't be well executed. Any plan that the rank and file haven't even seen before will be very difficult to make function. Since none of that has been done, having a plan will be almost irrelevant. Everybody will be winging it anyway. Hopefully the "plan" is based on Auftragstaktik as opposed to detailed step by step actions, because without practice that never works.
Great point. Had to look up Auftragstaktik, though.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - burger - 03-09-2020
(03-09-2020, 09:49 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/(03-09-2020, 09:26 AM)burger Wrote:FYI, CDC's budget has actually gone up over the last few years.(03-09-2020, 09:08 AM)M T Wrote: I expect those who have been tasked to plan for these have come up with what needs to still function in a pandemic. Just some thoughts:I got a good laugh out of that. Weren't those people fired? I've seen no indications of such a plan despite months of lead time that our government had while this was going crazy in China.
https://cdn.factcheck.org/UploadedFiles/cdc-budget.jpg
https://www.cdc.gov/about/report/cdc-funding.html
One would have thought that after SARS, Swine Flu, and MERS, somebody in the CDC would have prepared for an epidemic and not just waited for one to react.
They fired the leadership of the pandemic team. What plans are still in place is pure speculation until someone shows me the plan.
Also, that chart is not adjusted for inflation. As a general rule, any chart comparing $ values across years not adjusted for inflation should probably be ignored. (Not saying the budget for CDC was cut--just that that chart isn't helpful.)
RE: Covid-19 considerations - Langdude - 03-09-2020
I hate to think this way, and I don't mean to be indelicate, but is there anything I should be doing financially (with our savings) so as to not lose a lot of capital, a la 2008? We are not wealthy, so trying to be cautious...
-m.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - stupac2 - 03-09-2020
(03-09-2020, 10:30 AM)Langdude Wrote: I hate to think this way, and I don't mean to be indelicate, but is there anything I should be doing financially (with our savings) so as to not lose a lot of capital, a la 2008? We are not wealthy, so trying to be cautious...
-m.
My understanding is that, historically speaking, you're better off just letting it ride than trying to time your exit/reentry. But I'm sure someone on here is more knowledgeable than I am.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - martyup - 03-09-2020
(03-09-2020, 08:05 AM)yvonne Wrote: No one knows more about monitoring information's spread (crisis informatics) like Kate Starbird. Here's her perspective on what we as consumers and purveyors of crisis information should consider while evaluating information about Covid-19.
https://medium.com/@katestarbird/reflecting-on-the-covid-19-infodemic-as-a-crisis-informatics-researcher-ce0656fa4d0a
Thank you for posting this. I wish all members would read it.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - JJJ - 03-09-2020
Japanese pro baseball (NPB) officially delays season opener from original 3/20 date (early due to Olympics break). New start date TBD but hoping during April.
http://www.thehanshintigers.com/2020/03/09/regular-season-delayed-spring-hs-tourney-up-in-air/
RE: Covid-19 considerations - cardcrimson - 03-09-2020
(03-09-2020, 09:53 AM)burger Wrote:(03-09-2020, 09:49 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/(03-09-2020, 09:26 AM)burger Wrote:FYI, CDC's budget has actually gone up over the last few years.(03-09-2020, 09:08 AM)M T Wrote: I expect those who have been tasked to plan for these have come up with what needs to still function in a pandemic. Just some thoughts:I got a good laugh out of that. Weren't those people fired? I've seen no indications of such a plan despite months of lead time that our government had while this was going crazy in China.
https://cdn.factcheck.org/UploadedFiles/cdc-budget.jpg
https://www.cdc.gov/about/report/cdc-funding.html
One would have thought that after SARS, Swine Flu, and MERS, somebody in the CDC would have prepared for an epidemic and not just waited for one to react.
They fired the leadership of the pandemic team. What plans are still in place is pure speculation until someone shows me the plan.
Also, that chart is not adjusted for inflation. As a general rule, any chart comparing $ values across years not adjusted for inflation should probably be ignored. (Not saying the budget for CDC was cut--just that that chart isn't helpful.)
I believe that the pandemic team was authorized by Obama through executive order a month before he departed, and filled by the Trump administration. Granted Bolton reorganized the effort, resulting in the head of the organization, Tim Ziemer, to be let go. That said, Ziemer was appointed just a year before and was the only one to ever serve in the role. I could be wrong, but I can't find anyone with his title in the Obama administration.
I did find this article from 2016 pointing out how woefully prepared we were and that the was no apparent coordinated effort and leadership hierarchy in case an outbreak does occur. Also according to the article, a "blue ribbon" panel determined that such an effort be placed under the office of, wait for it, the Vice President.
https://publicintegrity.org/national-security/bio-threat-protections-inadequate/
As for inflation, correct and pointed out as such. That said, inflation hasn't really been rampant over the last three years. In fact, over the last 4 years, inflation accounts for around 9%, CDC spending is up over 11%
None of this really matters at this point, all that is relevant is how best to move forward.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - OutsiderFan - 03-09-2020
The economic fallout is collateral damage to what must be done to protect the health care system. As to the reason for taking drastic measures, look at this:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/alxrdk/status/1237021885239635969[/tweet]