Outside Topic SF Giants 2024 - Printable Version
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RE: 2024 Giants Thread - Mick - 01-03-2024
Dieter Kurtenbach on five under-the-radar free agents that the Giants should consider including projected salary; Adam Duvall ($8 mms.), Rhys Hoskins (2 yrs., $36 mms.), noted PITA Tommy Pham (who can rake, $5 mms.), RP Jordan Hicks (100 mph sinker, 4 yrs., $40 mms.), SP Marcus Stroman (#3 starter, 2 yrs/$44 mms.)
RE: 2024 Giants Thread - lex24 - 01-03-2024
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1704299614' Wrote: 1704299614[/url]']
Spotrac is estimating the Giants 2024 payroll for Competitive Balance Tax purposes at $185 mms. with a salary cap of $237 mms. leaving $52 mms. for incoming free agents or trades. Next year, Conforto ($18 mms.), Stripling ($15 mms.), DeSclafani ($12 mms.), Cobb ($10 mms.), Jackson ($6.5 mms., club has a $7 mms. option), Flores ($6.5 mms., he has a $3.5 mms. option which he is unlikely to exercise assuming a halfway decent year), and Slater ($4 mms.) all conclude contracts, so a grand total of $72 million comes off the books next year.
I'm assuming Haniger (.631 OPS, only 61 games played) will have a mediocre year and decide to exercise his $17.5 million option. His OPS+ was 73, and his numbers have shown a sharp decline. Two years ago, he hit 39 HRs. maybe he bounces back. I doubt it. What was bizarre to me is that Haniger's a righty, and did reasonably well against LHPs, but 74% of his ABs were against RHPs, where his OPS was 106 points less, which was typical for his career.
And possibly another $8 million comes off the books, depending on what the Giants do with Yastrzemski. Yaz had a great year when he broke into the majors at age 28 with the Giants (.852 OPS), then an incredible year in the COVID year (.968, led the league in triples, #8 in MVP voting). The last three years have been .768, .697 (played 148 games) and .775 (down to 106 games,). Still, he absolutely crushes RHPs (.831 OPS) and is helpless against LHPs (.592 OPS). He turns 34 in August. Assuming standard age-related decline, this might be his last year as a Giant.
Lastly on Blake Snell...supposedly it's down to the Angels and Giants. The Giants had a better record last year by six wins and seem to be moving in a more positive direction (Angels lost Ohtani, Giants gained Lee, with more to come). Oracle is much, much more of a pitcher's park. Baseball Savant lists Angels park as #13 for hitters, Oracle is listed as #26. It would seem to me that the Giants would be more attractive to Snell (and perhaps less so for Bellinger, who is likely to re-sign with the Cubs or the Blue Jays).
Spotrac is a little hard to interpret. It does have the 185 number in the CBT section. But then it says that their Estimated Competitive Balance Tax Space is $75,975,000. Not sure how that jives. I think it may be that the 185 includes their estimates for what several players who are arbitration eligible will be receiving. In any event, bottom line is the Giants have plenty of money to spend if they want to.
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1704304889' Wrote: 1704304889[/url]']
Dieter Kurtenbach on five under-the-radar free agents that the Giants should consider including projected salary; Adam Duvall ($8 mms.), Rhys Hoskins (2 yrs., $36 mms.), noted PITA Tommy Pham (who can rake, $5 mms.), RP Jordan Hicks (100 mph sinker, 4 yrs., $40 mms.), SP Marcus Stroman (#3 starter, 2 yrs/$44 mms.)
Hard pass on all except Stroman. Duvall is a nice player, but the Giants need to get younger and they already have too many corner outfielders. Although Duvall can play some center. Pham is another corner outfielder. Hoskins is a three true outcome first baseman. I’d just as soon take my chances with Wade and Flores. If one or both get traded, then maybe there’s room for Hoskins otherwise there’s not. Hicks is intriguing because he does have back of the pen stuff but has had a hard time putting it together. Having said that there’s no way I give him a 4 year contract. I’d be hesitant to give any relief pitcher other than a young elite closer a four year contract.
triangle2 - triangle2 - 01-05-2024
Robbie Ray to Giants for DeSclafani and Haniger
Another Zaidi special - acquiring an injured player with an existing contract that has a player opt-out after 2024. I suppose in this instance, I’m pretty happy that the Giants figured out how to jettison Haniger’s contract. But, I wonder if this deal signals “yeah, we’re not getting Imanaga and Snell so we’re going with Webb, Harrison, Cobb whenever he’s recovered, Ray whenever he’s recovered, and our quad A starter of the month.”
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 01-05-2024
Giants acquired Robbie Ray from the Mariners in exchange for Anthony DeSclafani and Mitch Haniger.
Ray won the Cy Young in 2021 (13-7, 2.84 ERA), was 12-12 in 2022, hurt almost all of last year and just pitched a few innings. He led the AL in WAR in 2021. Was an all-star in 2017. Similar profile to Snell, except his injury year was last year. Had Tommy John surgery on May 3, 2023. Won't return until July at the earliest.
Haniger was a brobdingnagian disappointment and was in a crowded outfield in SF. He was owed $36.5 million over the next two years. Desclafani, also a brobdingnagian disappointment, was owed $12 million. Robbie is owed $23 mms. this year, so luxury tax-applicable salary is $2.5 mms. savings for Giants. Ray is owed $25 mms. the next two years, has an opt out after this year.
He led the league in strikeouts, has struck out over 200 four times, is just 32 in 2024. Mid-90s fastball, excellent slider (85), very good curve (84).
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rayro02.shtml
RE: SF Giants 2024 - old spanish trail - 01-05-2024
(01-05-2024, 01:11 PM)Mick Wrote: Giants acquired Robbie Ray from the Mariners in exchange for Anthony DeSclafani and Mitch Haniger.
Ray won the Cy Young in 2021 (13-7, 2.84 ERA), was 12-12 in 2022, hurt almost all of last year and just pitched a few innings. He led the AL in WAR in 2021. Was an all-star in 2017. Similar profile to Snell, except his injury year was last year. Had Tommy John surgery on May 3, 2023. Won't return until July at the earliest.
Haniger was a of immense proportions disappointment and was in a crowded outfield in SF. He was owed $36.5 million over the next two years. Desclafani, also a of immense proportions disappointment, was owed $12 million. Robbie is owed $23 mms. this year, so luxury tax-applicable salary is $2.5 mms. savings for Giants. Ray is owed $25 mms. the next two years, has an opt out after this year.
He led the league in strikeouts, has struck out over 200 four times, is just 32 in 2024. Mid-90s fastball, excellent slider (85), very good curve (84).
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rayro02.shtml
Salary dump for maybe 2 months of Ray if he's any good, or 2 months plus one year if he isn't 2021 Robbie Ray?
RE: triangle2 - Mick - 01-05-2024
(01-05-2024, 01:07 PM)triangle2 Wrote: Robbie Ray to Giants for DeSclafani and Haniger
Another Zaidi special - acquiring an injured player with an existing contract that has a player opt-out after 2024. I suppose in this instance, I’m pretty happy that the Giants figured out how to jettison Haniger’s contract. But, I wonder if this deal signals “yeah, we’re not getting Imanaga and Snell so we’re going with Webb, Harrison, Cobb whenever he’s recovered, Ray whenever he’s recovered, and our quad A starter of the month.”
I really hope not. I'm glad we lose both DeSclafani and Haniger, although both have surprise upside potential...but it would be a surprise. Too bad Farhan couldn't get rid of Stripling. But we already have one starter who isn't showing up until June...Ray may not be around until August.
Ray and Haniger had a great year in 2021, DeSclafani had a really good year. Haniger and DeSclafani should come back at some approximation of their best. Ray has more potential and a better track record than either. Salary swap of dead contracts.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 01-05-2024
(01-05-2024, 01:35 PM)old spanish trail Wrote: Salary dump for maybe 2 months of Ray if he's any good, or 2 months plus one year if he isn't 2021 Robbie Ray?
I don't think he'll opt out. He's not coming back until after the all star break (games resume July 18). At that point, there's only 67 games left. Best case, he gets 12 starts, maybe goes 5-3. Best case. He probably won't want to test the market with $50 million in two years remaining on his contract.
RE: 2024 Giants Thread - Giants - 01-05-2024
Good trade. Dump two dead weights and get back one half-dead weight with a total net salary close to even. Also, Imanaga over Snell - less money and better potential. Webb, Imanaga, Cobb and Ray would be a nice rotation IF SF can just eke into the playoffs.
Having said that, I don’t think the Giants are done on the free agent/trade market. More bats, please.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - CompSci87 - 01-05-2024
People have been posting in both 2024 Giants threads, so I've merged them after all.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 01-05-2024
(01-05-2024, 02:13 PM)Giants Wrote: Good trade. Dump two dead weights and get back one half-dead weight with a total net salary close to even. Also, Imanaga over Snell - less money and better potential. Webb, Imanaga, Cobb and Ray would be a nice rotation IF SF can just eke into the playoffs.
Having said that, I don’t think the Giants are done on the free agent/trade market. More bats, please.
Agree with all of that...and everything I read is that, while Yamamoto has better stuff than Imanaga, Imanaga has outperformed him in international, high level competition. Not by a lot, just by a little. And he's five years older...still, I really hope we end up with him.
And we do need bats. We finished 25th in runs per game last year, 26th in triples, 25th in doubles, 24th in fewest strikeouts, dead last in stolen bases, and 27th in OPS.
I'm hoping our terrible fielding last year was an anomaly. Even our star, Patrick Bailey, tied for the most errors in MLB committed bya catcher, T2 for the most passed balls. Wade was second in most errors by a 1B (10, but he also had the greatest range factor), Cobb was T5 for most errors committed by a P, though Beck and Cobb were T1 for most DPs by a pitcher. Estrada had the best range factor as a 2B. And Crawford, that oldie, was third in MLB in range factor per nine innings as a SS. Webb was 5th in range factor for pitchers. All that said, the Giants were dead last in fielding percentage at .981, they had the most errors with 117, and they were 25th in RTot. Ugh. Both stats were similar in 2022. Hopefully Bob Melvin can turn it around. Padres were below average in fielding, incidentally.
One interesting bit...the worst fielders on the Giants, by fielding percentage, were the pitchers, and it wasn't close. Aside from Joc Pederson, the worst 11 were all pitchers. Then Heliot Ramos, Paul DeJOng with 2 errors in 16 games, Crawford with 12 adn Casey Schmitt with 8. JD Davis had 9. Very few Giants had a positive RTot. Bailey (7), Yastrzemski (5), Bryce Johnson (now gone, 3). Fitzgerald, Stevenson, Estrada, Slater & Haniger all had two. Conforto was worst at -13, Matos was -10, Sabol was -9, Crawford was -8, Meckler was -6, Villar and Davis were -5, Pederson was -4.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 01-05-2024
Bailey was a Gold Glove finalist. Defensively, he had an above average season, particularly framing and pop time. Overall, the team’s lack of athleticism hurt them in the field. Younger, more athletic players, would lead to better defensive results.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 01-05-2024
(01-05-2024, 07:39 PM)Giants Wrote: Bailey was a Gold Glove finalist. Defensively, he had an above average season, particularly framing and pop time. Overall, the team’s lack of athleticism hurt them in the field. Younger, more athletic players, would lead to better defensive results.
Good point. Errors don't seem to matter for catchers. The only gold glove winners that I could find that led the league in errors was Thurman Munson, who led the league in errors three consecutive years and won gold gloves in all three and Sandy Alomar who won the Gold Glove as a rookie catcher with 14 errors. Munson also had a larger range factor than league average catchers that year. Of course, like Bailey, he had a hose...he led the league in throwing out would-be base stealers twice and was always among the league leaders in assists by catcher.
Unlike Munson and like Alomar, Bailey had eight passed balls. Bailey led the league in passed balls, catching 84 games. But he was third in assists and 4th in caught stealing percentage and first in total base stealers caught. I look for great things from Mr. Bailey next year.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 01-05-2024
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1704515595' Wrote: 1704515595[/url]']
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1704508790' Wrote: 1704508790[/url]']
Bailey was a Gold Glove finalist. Defensively, he had an above average season, particularly framing and pop time. Overall, the team’s lack of athleticism hurt them in the field. Younger, more athletic players, would lead to better defensive results.
Good point. Errors don't seem to matter for catchers. The only gold glove winners that I could find that led the league in errors was Thurman Munson, who led the league in errors three consecutive years and won gold gloves in all three and Sandy Alomar who won the Gold Glove as a rookie catcher with 14 errors. Munson also had a larger range factor than league average catchers that year. Of course, like Bailey, he had a hose...he led the league in throwing out would-be base stealers twice and was always among the league leaders in assists by catcher.
Unlike Munson and like Alomar, Bailey had eight passed balls. Bailey led the league in passed balls, catching 84 games. But he was third in assists and 4th in caught stealing percentage and first in total base stealers caught. I look for great things from Mr. Bailey next year.
Interesting point re: passed balls. I would like to know which pitchers were on the mound for them and what type of pitch got past him. As a rookie, perhaps he struggled with one particular pitcher or a particular pitch. I doubt that information is readily available so we will have to chalk up the stat to his rookie status.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 01-06-2024
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1704500494' Wrote: 1704500494[/url]']
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1704489196' Wrote: 1704489196[/url]']
Good trade. Dump two dead weights and get back one half-dead weight with a total net salary close to even. Also, Imanaga over Snell - less money and better potential. Webb, Imanaga, Cobb and Ray would be a nice rotation IF SF can just eke into the playoffs.
Having said that, I don’t think the Giants are done on the free agent/trade market. More bats, please.
Agree with all of that...and everything I read is that, while Yamamoto has better stuff than Imanaga, Imanaga has outperformed him in international, high level competition. Not by a lot, just by a little. And he's five years older...still, I really hope we end up with him.
And we do need bats. We finished 25th in runs per game last year, 26th in triples, 25th in doubles, 24th in fewest strikeouts, dead last in stolen bases, and 27th in OPS.
I'm hoping our terrible fielding last year was an anomaly. Even our star, Patrick Bailey, tied for the most errors in MLB committed bya catcher, T2 for the most passed balls. Wade was second in most errors by a 1B (10, but he also had the greatest range factor), Cobb was T5 for most errors committed by a P, though Beck and Cobb were T1 for most DPs by a pitcher. Estrada had the best range factor as a 2B. And Crawford, that oldie, was third in MLB in range factor per nine innings as a SS. Webb was 5th in range factor for pitchers. All that said, the Giants were dead last in fielding percentage at .981, they had the most errors with 117, and they were 25th in RTot. Ugh. Both stats were similar in 2022. Hopefully Bob Melvin can turn it around. Padres were below average in fielding, incidentally.
One interesting bit...the worst fielders on the Giants, by fielding percentage, were the pitchers, and it wasn't close. Aside from Joc Pederson, the worst 11 were all pitchers. Then Heliot Ramos, Paul DeJOng with 2 errors in 16 games, Crawford with 12 adn Casey Schmitt with 8. JD Davis had 9. Very few Giants had a positive RTot. Bailey (7), Yastrzemski (5), Bryce Johnson (now gone, 3). Fitzgerald, Stevenson, Estrada, Slater & Haniger all had two. Conforto was worst at -13, Matos was -10, Sabol was -9, Crawford was -8, Meckler was -6, Villar and Davis were -5, Pederson was -4.
No, it was not an anomaly. In fact it was a bit better than ‘22. Errors only tell a part of the story. They were not strong in most metrics. Including Outs Agaist Average. The only player that stood out in that category was Estrada. I believe Crawford, even in a lousy year, was second.
The Giants are s l o w. It hurts them offensively and defensively. Lee will help some. So, btw, will Chapman if they sign him. Bailey is strong defensively. Luciano if he can hold the job will be average at best defensively. Yaz is good in RF. Slater not a liability, when he can actually play. Conforto is not good. Wade mixed.
I like the trade. But I liked it a lot more before I read Zaidis comments in Baggerly’s column this morning. Sounds like Giants are not “in” on any of the remaining FA pitchers. Maybe Zaidi was playing possum. But he talked about the need to have a couple rotation spots for “flexibility“ with players who have options can go back-and-forth between the bullpen. Great! Can’t wait to see the openers again next year. Right now the rotation? Webb and a prayer.
This current roster is 75-80 wins.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 01-06-2024
(01-06-2024, 08:39 AM)lex24 Wrote:Mick dateline='[url=tel:1704500494' Wrote: 1704500494[/url]']
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1704489196' Wrote: 1704489196[/url]']
Good trade. Dump two dead weights and get back one half-dead weight with a total net salary close to even. Also, Imanaga over Snell - less money and better potential. Webb, Imanaga, Cobb and Ray would be a nice rotation IF SF can just eke into the playoffs.
Having said that, I don’t think the Giants are done on the free agent/trade market. More bats, please.
Agree with all of that...and everything I read is that, while Yamamoto has better stuff than Imanaga, Imanaga has outperformed him in international, high level competition. Not by a lot, just by a little. And he's five years older...still, I really hope we end up with him.
And we do need bats. We finished 25th in runs per game last year, 26th in triples, 25th in doubles, 24th in fewest strikeouts, dead last in stolen bases, and 27th in OPS.
I'm hoping our terrible fielding last year was an anomaly. Even our star, Patrick Bailey, tied for the most errors in MLB committed bya catcher, T2 for the most passed balls. Wade was second in most errors by a 1B (10, but he also had the greatest range factor), Cobb was T5 for most errors committed by a P, though Beck and Cobb were T1 for most DPs by a pitcher. Estrada had the best range factor as a 2B. And Crawford, that oldie, was third in MLB in range factor per nine innings as a SS. Webb was 5th in range factor for pitchers. All that said, the Giants were dead last in fielding percentage at .981, they had the most errors with 117, and they were 25th in RTot. Ugh. Both stats were similar in 2022. Hopefully Bob Melvin can turn it around. Padres were below average in fielding, incidentally.
One interesting bit...the worst fielders on the Giants, by fielding percentage, were the pitchers, and it wasn't close. Aside from Joc Pederson, the worst 11 were all pitchers. Then Heliot Ramos, Paul DeJOng with 2 errors in 16 games, Crawford with 12 adn Casey Schmitt with 8. JD Davis had 9. Very few Giants had a positive RTot. Bailey (7), Yastrzemski (5), Bryce Johnson (now gone, 3). Fitzgerald, Stevenson, Estrada, Slater & Haniger all had two. Conforto was worst at -13, Matos was -10, Sabol was -9, Crawford was -8, Meckler was -6, Villar and Davis were -5, Pederson was -4.
No, it was not an anomaly. In fact it was a bit better than ‘22. Errors only tell a part of the story. They were not strong in most metrics. Including Outs Agaist Average. The only player that stood out in that category was Estrada. I believe Crawford, even in a lousy year, was second.
The Giants are s l o w. It hurts them offensively and defensively. Lee will help some. So, btw, will Chapman if they sign him. Bailey is strong defensively. Luciano if he can hold the job will be average at best defensively. Yaz is good in RF. Slater not a liability, when he can actually play. Conforto is not good. Wade mixed.
I like the trade. But I liked it a lot more before I read Zaidis comments in Baggerly’s column this morning. Sounds like Giants are not “in” on any of the remaining FA pitchers. Maybe Zaidi was playing possum. But he talked about the need to have a couple rotation spots for “flexibility“ with players who have options can go back-and-forth between the bullpen. Great! Can’t wait to see the openers again next year. Right now the rotation? Webb and a prayer.
This current roster is 75-80 wins.
I think you have it pegged. I liked the trade even less when I read in Baggarly's Athletic article that the Giants kicked in $6 million to make it revenue neutral. At least Haniger and DeSclafani will be ready at the start of the season. Hopefully Robbie Ray returns to his old self. I'm guessing that Farhan is painfully cognizant of the fact that Haniger and DeSclafani won't return to their former form.
So the positives: perhaps gives the Giants a co-ace to pair with Webb. Apparently the Giants wanted Ray after 2021 but didn't bid enough. Ray had UCL elbow surgery, but apparently across MLB pitchers are having a much higher success rate with Tommy John surgery.
Current rotation is Webb and Ross Stripling with Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck, all of whom I really like. Sean Hjelle and Kai-Wei Teng are the depth options, per Farhan. Incidentally...as you say, Farhan is downplaying the FA market. I don't think he wants to pay $100 mms. for a 30 year old AAA pitcher (Imanaga), or $300 mms. for a 31-year old Cy Young winner who has pitched over 130 innings twice in an eight-year career. Farhan sounds very confident about Teng, Wishenhunt, Black and Birdsong. Robbie Ray and Cobb will start on the 50 day disabled list.
No starter in the field started more than 117 games last year. And the biggest mystery to me about the Giants from last year is their second half tank when it didn't seem to me that anyone was playing too much.
I think we do pick up Chapman. I think we have Lee in CF, Conforto in LF and Yaz/Slater in RF. Without Haniger as a RHDH, they can put JD Davis in that slot. Hopefully Flores keeps up his solid bat, and Estrada and Wade can do a full season of greatness. BTW, JD Davis had a solid first half as well. Then everyone hit the wall.
I should point out that the Giants missed the playoffs by four games, and they finished 3-7 their last 10 games. Go 7-3, and they're in the playoffs -- and BTW, the team that did win the World Series was 83-79 in the regular season. So they were close. But I think Melvin is a retread. This team absolutely top ends at 75 wins.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 01-06-2024
I came away from reading Baggerly’s article with the impression that Zaidi is playing his cards close to the vest. For example, before the transaction was announced, no one speculated that SF might be interested in Ray. Also, his call to Boras on New Year’s Eve was a tipoff that the Giants are still interested in Chapman (something I think Melvin is pushing for). In addition, I would not be surprised with another pitching acquisition.
As currently constructed, I agree the roster is in the 75-80 win range. However, there is still plenty of time between now and when pitchers and catchers report to acquire some guys that can bump the 75-80 forecast to 85ish (which should be enough to nail down a wild card spot).
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 01-08-2024
I don't see the Giants getting either Snell (a/k/a Barry Zwho supposedly wants $200 mms.+) or Imanaga. Both are on the wrong side of 30. Snell has pitched more than 130 innings just twice in the last eight years and led the league in walks last year. Imanaga's profile (short, no real speed, gives up a lot of HRs) is more of a #4 or #5 starter and the Giants have enough of those.
Snell's free agency might...last a while. The Giants, Red Sox, Mets, Yankees and Phillies need starting pitching but don't want to pay $200 mms. for an iffy, older arm.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 01-08-2024
Manaea signed with the Mets, so that avenue is closed. Too bad, unlike all of the other Giants, he was terrible in April & May, just okay in June and July, and caught fire in August and September.
triangle2 - triangle2 - 01-08-2024
FWIW, Mark Feinsand at MLB has a source saying that the Giants are leading for Imanaga. Maybe Zaidi’s been poker facing everyone.
https://www.mlb.com/news/shota-imanaga-free-agent-market?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 01-08-2024
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1704744604' Wrote: 1704744604[/url]']
Manaea signed with the Mets, so that avenue is closed. Too bad, unlike all of the other Giants, he was terrible in April & May, just okay in June and July, and caught fire in August and September.
As you noted earlier, the Giants have enough #4 and #5 starting pitchers. There was no need to add another one. I prefer Winn and/or Beck over Manea (especially at the price NY paid)….
Note: Exception to the rule - Imanaga (who I think will be the anti-Snell, in other words, a good signing).