Stanford Baseball 2024 - Printable Version
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RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - CTcard - 04-29-2024
(04-29-2024, 10:23 AM)Brickcity Wrote:(04-28-2024, 11:35 PM)norcard10 Wrote: Is this team making the post season this year?
Good question. My assumption is they would have to have a really gaudy record the rest of the way (which still might not be enough) or win the Pac-12 tournament.
This team is likely making the conference trounament postseason, but not the NCAA tournament postseason.
There is always the possibility of winning the Pac 12 tournament and thus making NCAAs, and the conference really is quite tightly bunched. However, I don't think this team has the pitching depth or consistency to do so.
A Short Recap of the Season To Date:
Overall I'd say that while the team has not been as good as I had hoped, but it has progressed and seems to have reasonably bright prospects going forward.
A perspective on this team should note how young it is.
Every pitcher who has thrown 5 innings or more on the year is a frosh or soph. Of those, only two had significant innings last year: Scott and Dugan (well, borderline O'Harran who pitched 17 total innings last year).
The team also lost 6 of its top 7 hitters from last year in terms of at bats and in terms of slugging percentage. Those returning were Moore, Cobb, and the rotating cast at DH. The team lost 90 of its 117 home runs. Of those currently getting regular at bats, the only one who can't come back is Cobb.
The team remains frustrating. They lose lots of games they shouldn't. Lots of guys left on base; lots of errors (and not quite called errors); lots of free passes. On the season Stanford has needed 1.72 hits to score a run while their opponents only needed 1.34 hits per run - a big difference over a season.
They also tend to fail miserably at playing small-ball, though those attempts seemed to have slacked off. I don't think anyone keeps failed sacrifices as a stat, but Stanford had to be at the top (bottom) of that after what seemed like hundreds of bunt fouls and pop-ups. They're last in the conference on percent of stolen base attempts successful.
However, they've been getting better over the season.
That's most clear on offense. For example, over the past month Stanford has hit for a team average of .326 whereas before that the team BA was .259. For comparison, last year on the season the team hit .316. Over that same past month this year Stanford has scored 7.6 runs per game versus 4.4 earlier.
Pitching is less clear.
Two solid starters have emerged in Scott and Lim.
Moore has emerged as a strong long relief man. Had a rough start to the season (gave up 1/2 of earned runs in first 3 games), but a 2.9 ERA since.
O'Harran has emerged as a closer. Had a couple disaster outings but a reasonable 2.7 ERA over past month (since Tech series).
After that it gets thin. Dugan has been up and down. Speshyock was scary wild early. He's still walking too many, but he's had some decent outings and opponents are only hitting .225 against him.
Losing Uber and O'Rourke for the year really hurt. They could have been upper-class workhorses for the team. I hope they'll get a chance to play again.
I'm encouraged for next year, though as always how next year's team does will depend on who returns and how younger players develop. Will look at that more after the season.
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - JJJ - 04-30-2024
I’m just psyched about Sasaki next year!8)
But agree they’d need to win the Pac tourney and that’s a tall order for this year. Thanks for the analysis.
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - TonyLima - 04-30-2024
(04-29-2024, 08:39 PM)CTcard Wrote:(04-29-2024, 10:23 AM)Brickcity Wrote:(04-28-2024, 11:35 PM)norcard10 Wrote: Is this team making the post season this year?
Good question. My assumption is they would have to have a really gaudy record the rest of the way (which still might not be enough) or win the Pac-12 tournament.
This team is likely making the conference trounament postseason, but not the NCAA tournament postseason.
There is always the possibility of winning the Pac 12 tournament and thus making NCAAs, and the conference really is quite tightly bunched. However, I don't think this team has the pitching depth or consistency to do so.
A Short Recap of the Season To Date:
Overall I'd say that while the team has not been as good as I had hoped, it has progressed and seems to have reasonably bright prospects going forward.
…
Losing Uber and O'Rourke for the year really hurt. They could have been upper-class workhorses for the team. I hope they'll get a chance to play again.
I'm encouraged for next year, though as always how next year's team does will depend on who returns and how younger players develop. Will look at that more after the season.
Terrific analysis. Thanks. Also, good reminder about Uber and O’Rourke. I’ll just add one name: Braden Montgomery. And watching the kids improve has been fun.
I will disagree about sacrifice bunts. There’s at least one number-crunching analysis that finds the cost of a sacrifice (1 out) exceeds the benefits. You only get 27 outs in 9 innings. Giving up 3.7% of the available outs better have a pretty good payoff.
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - CTcard - 04-30-2024
(04-30-2024, 11:34 AM)TonyLima Wrote: I will disagree about sacrifice bunts. There’s at least one number-crunching analysis that finds the cost of a sacrifice (1 out) exceeds the benefits. You only get 27 outs in 9 innings. Giving up 3.7% of the available outs better have a pretty good payoff.
That's not a disagreement.
I'm more or less with the analytics folks on the problems of bunting. BUT, if you are going to do so you had better do so properly.
I have absolutely no doubt that bunting is a bad move if you bunt foul three times or bunt a pop up to the pitcher.
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - TonyLima - 04-30-2024
(04-30-2024, 05:16 PM)CTcard Wrote:(04-30-2024, 11:34 AM)TonyLima Wrote: I will disagree about sacrifice bunts. There’s at least one number-crunching analysis that finds the cost of a sacrifice (1 out) exceeds the benefits. You only get 27 outs in 9 innings. Giving up 3.7% of the available outs better have a pretty good payoff.
That's not a disagreement.
I'm more or less with the analytics folks on the problems of bunting. BUT, if you are going to do so you had better do so properly.
I have absolutely no doubt that bunting is a bad move if you bunt foul three times or bunt a pop up to the pitcher.
Ah. Understood. Thanks for your patience.
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - Maple Leaf - 05-01-2024
A 19-year-old Stanford phenom is blazing a new trail from Japan to the majors - The Athletic
Great article in the Athletic about the young man from Japan.
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - JJJ - 05-01-2024
(05-01-2024, 07:45 AM)Maple Leaf Wrote: A 19-year-old Stanford phenom is blazing a new trail from Japan to the majors - The Athletic
Great article in the Athletic about the young man from Japan.
I hope people are starting to get what a historic occurrence it is we are witnessing. Andrew Baggarly sure helps make that a reality.
P.S. Didn’t know that we didn’t have a slot for him until some players hit the portal. Addition by subtraction!
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - TonyLima - 05-05-2024
Granted AZ is highly ranked. But swept? I knew this season would have its ups and downs, but still ...
Anyone know how many teams get to the Pac-12 Tournament? Thinking of going just for the memorabilia. But not if our guys stay home.
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - Baller4 - 05-05-2024
(05-05-2024, 04:38 PM)TonyLima Wrote: Granted AZ is highly ranked. But swept? I knew this season would have its ups and downs, but still ...
Anyone know how many teams get to the Pac-12 Tournament? Thinking of going just for the memorabilia. But not if our guys stay home.
Arizona is going to go pretty far this year. They will win the Pac. They can hit the crap out of the ball. Stanford is good at home, and they need to take that home tude on the road. Stanford will get in the tourney, but they will not go to a regional unless they win the Pac tourney.
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - Sam Leopold - 05-05-2024
I knew this series was going to be rocky when Arizona got run-ruled 24-8 by Grand Canyon earlier in the week. They had electricity in their scalps making their hair stand on end all weekend long, and they were going to be hard enough to beat even without that.
Up here, we were rightfully hoping that Stanford could reload and at least be in contention for an at-large berth, but with the mass departures after the end of last season, it is safe to say that the "ship" is no longer "Theseus's ship" and this is a year for rebuilding the ship.
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - TonyLima - 05-10-2024
Bottom 1, 2 out, Cobb at 3rd, M. Moore at 1st, Nati batting. Why in the world would you put on a double steal? Result: 3 outs, 0 runs. Are the coaches panicking?
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - Blue Hawk (Mizzou) Card - 05-10-2024
(05-10-2024, 06:48 PM)TonyLima Wrote: Bottom 1, 2 out, Cobb at 3rd, M. Moore at 1st, Nati batting. Why in the world would you put on a double steal? Result: 3 outs, 0 runs. Are the coaches panicking?
Luv ya, Tony, but that play works quite often. We do better with that play than with bunting (though I realize you are also not a fan of bunting).
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - TonyLima - 05-11-2024
(05-10-2024, 08:36 PM)Blue Hawk (Mizzou) Card Wrote:(05-10-2024, 06:48 PM)TonyLima Wrote: Bottom 1, 2 out, Cobb at 3rd, M. Moore at 1st, Nati batting. Why in the world would you put on a double steal? Result: 3 outs, 0 runs. Are the coaches panicking?
Luv ya, Tony, but that play works quite often. We do better with that play than with bunting (though I realize you are also not a fan of bunting).
I agree re bunting. But consider the situation. Team lost 3 in a row, 4 out of the last 5. Bottom 1, team down 3-0. Seems to me the double steal is kind of a statement of lack of confidence in the team. Discussion welcome (of course).
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - TonyLima - 05-18-2024
TEMO! At last a hit with two outs and runners in scoring position.
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - Madera86 - 05-18-2024
The team is in free fall.
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - TonyLima - 05-18-2024
(05-18-2024, 02:25 PM)Madera86 Wrote: The team is in free fall.
If I remember correctly, during yesterday‘s game the UCLA announcers mentioned that Stanford’s seven game losing streak was their longest since 1982. Now I’m depressed enough and I don’t feel like going through the data, but does anyone have any idea when the last time was they lost 10 straight?
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - JJJ - 05-18-2024
Well, at least we backed into the Pac-tourney.
ASU’s last 5 game scores:
W 13-1 vs Stanford
W 10-1 vs Stanford
W 16-7 vs Stanford
W 21-5 vs Texas Tech
W 17-11 vs Texas Tech.
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - Madera86 - 05-18-2024
(05-18-2024, 04:28 PM)JJJ Wrote: Well, at least we backed into the Pac-tourney.
ASU’s last 5 game scores:
W 13-1 vs Stanford
W 10-1 vs Stanford
W 16-7 vs Stanford
W 21-5 vs Texas Tech
W 17-11 vs Texas Tech.
Since the tourney begins with pool play, we get at least two more games.
Not sure if that's good or bad.
The Oregon series made me hopeful that the team was starting to come around, but the pitching has been dismal, especially as the game wears on. We seem to have some outbursts on offense, but those seem to disappear late in the game as well.
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - Sam Leopold - 05-18-2024
(05-18-2024, 02:25 PM)Madera86 Wrote: The team is in free fall.
That's putting it tactfully.
According to the gostanford.com recap of last night's game, the last time Stanford had a nine-game losing streak before now was 1959 or earlier. That means this is the most brutal stretch for Stanford baseball since before the Beatles formed. Yowza.
RE: Stanford Baseball 2024 - M T - 05-18-2024
(05-18-2024, 04:56 PM)Sam Leopold Wrote: According to the gostanford.com recap of last night's game, the last time Stanford had a nine-game losing streak before now was 1959 or earlier. That means this is the most brutal stretch for Stanford baseball since before the Beatles formed. Yowza.If you're a popular singer, stay off small planes.