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Re: Championship Game Thread - Mick - 12-02-2017

(12-01-2017, 09:59 PM)jacketree link Wrote:Holiday Bowl needs to happen. My son has a house in San Clemente. Pretty sure there is beer in the fridge.

Hope Costello’s thumb doesn’t pull a Luck Sun Bowl.🤨

Won’t be mad at all if Love sits out the bowl.

Totally agree. My brother's in Carlsbad.  And even though he's a Beaver, he'll want to go to the Holiday Bowl...

Re: Championship Game Thread - Mick - 12-02-2017

(12-01-2017, 10:04 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Indeed.  I wish we would have used Costello more in a running capacity.  I think he could be as good as Hogan.

BC

You're right, of course.  He didn't shy away from contact.  He gained yards regularly and had a good sense of the first down marker.

Re: Championship Game Thread - Mick - 12-02-2017

(12-01-2017, 10:23 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:[quote author=jacketree link=topic=18246.msg216420#msg216420 date=1512191788]
I predict Holiday Bowl against....Northwestern.

I was thinking Iowa.

BC
[/quote]

The Holiday Bowl wants Iowa, I've read.

Re: Championship Game Thread - washingtonismoney - 12-02-2017

One thing to improve with ... either Costello or the passing game is overall accuracy. As Boston Card pointed out, 61.1% is not great. Costello's already had two sub-50% completion games as a starter in his career; Hogan only had one throughout his entire career. (He hit exactly 50% against ND in 2014, so feel free to count that if you despise arbitrary endpoints.)

Re: Championship Game Thread - stupac2 - 12-02-2017

(12-02-2017, 06:59 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:One thing to improve with ... either Costello or the passing game is overall accuracy. As Boston Card pointed out, 61.1% is not great. Costello's already had two sub-50% completion games as a starter in his career; Hogan only had one throughout his entire career. (He hit exactly 50% against ND in 2014, so feel free to count that if you despise arbitrary endpoints.)

I mean, sure, but I can come up with 3 passes off the top of my head that hit receivers in the hands and were either dropped or ripped away by fantastic defensive plays. There's only so much the QB can do. I can also only think of two throws that were clearly off the mark (the 3rd and 22 where he was a couple feet behind, and one that went into the dirt in front of a diving USC player). Looking back I'm surprised his % was that low.

Also, re: the DL, did anyone see Thomas coming in 2015? He was a RS soph and balled out. I know we can't expect that type of performance from whoever's on the bench, but we can hope...

Re: Championship Game Thread - washingtonismoney - 12-02-2017

(12-02-2017, 07:10 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:Also, re: the DL, did anyone see Thomas coming in 2015? He was a RS soph and balled out. I know we can't expect that type of performance from whoever's on the bench, but we can hope...

Yeah, pretty much. He was a five-star recruit who redshirted and had 10.5 tackles for loss as a redshirt freshman, which led the conference (among freshmen). He then got named All Pac-12 honorable mention. Only two other freshman defensive linemen got at least honorable mention that year: Greg Gaines and Hercules Mata'afa.

Taking a leap to second overall pick in the draft was a pretty incredible leap, but all the evidence in December 2015 was pointing to a high-quality starting lineman.

Jovan Swann has nice statistics for a young player if we're using mere mortals as his peer group. 3.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT 1 fumble forced, 6 hurries. Nice stuff -- compares favorably with Matt Masifilo, Ben Gardner, and Henry Anderson at similar stages of their careers. (And is better than Terrence Stephens's equivalent production). But it's no Solly Thomas.

Now, saying Swann compares favorably with some really good defensive linemen hardly seems like a crisis. And, ordinarily, it wouldn't be -- it'd be cause for celebration. The problem is, those defensive linemen didn't reach full house-wrecking powers until late in their careers. As Shaw likes to say, football is a junior/senior game and that's really true at the line. So we can't expect Swann to be a *good* defensive lineman until 2019 or 2020.

Again, in the ordinary course of things that's not a problem. But if you think the defensive line needs to get massively better than 2017 to realistically win a conference championship (or more), and you think Phillips is leaving, it's really hard to make the numbers work out when Swann is your best defensive line prospect in terms of actual on-field play. If Phillips comes back -- which won't happen -- I can just about talk myself into an above-average line backed by much better linebacker and defensive back play. But once Phillips leaves I think the defense is worse in 2018 than 2017, which means a lot of shootouts and a 7-5 season.

Re: Championship Game Thread - stupac2 - 12-02-2017

(12-02-2017, 07:46 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=18246.msg216485#msg216485 date=1512223811]

Also, re: the DL, did anyone see Thomas coming in 2015? He was a RS soph and balled out. I know we can't expect that type of performance from whoever's on the bench, but we can hope...

Yeah, pretty much. He was a five-star recruit who redshirted and had 10.5 tackles for loss as a redshirt freshman, which led the conference (among freshmen). He then got named All Pac-12 honorable mention. Only two other freshman defensive linemen got at least honorable mention that year: Greg Gaines and Hercules Mata'afa.

Taking a leap to second overall pick in the draft was a pretty incredible leap, but all the evidence in December 2015 was pointing to a high-quality starting lineman.

Jovan Swann has nice statistics for a young player if we're using mere mortals as his peer group. 3.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT 1 fumble forced, 6 hurries. Nice stuff -- compares favorably with Matt Masifilo, Ben Gardner, and Henry Anderson at similar stages of their careers. (And is better than Terrence Stephens's equivalent production). But it's no Solly Thomas.

Now, saying Swann compares favorably with some really good defensive linemen hardly seems like a crisis. And, ordinarily, it wouldn't be -- it'd be cause for celebration. The problem is, those defensive linemen didn't reach full house-wrecking powers until late in their careers. As Shaw likes to say, football is a junior/senior game and that's really true at the line. So we can't expect Swann to be a *good* defensive lineman until 2019 or 2020.

Again, in the ordinary course of things that's not a problem. But if you think the defensive line needs to get massively better than 2017 to realistically win a conference championship (or more), and you think Phillips is leaving, it's really hard to make the numbers work out when Swann is your best defensive line prospect in terms of actual on-field play. If Phillips comes back -- which won't happen -- I can just about talk myself into an above-average line backed by much better linebacker and defensive back play. But once Phillips leaves I think the defense is worse in 2018 than 2017, which means a lot of shootouts and a 7-5 season.
[/quote]

I wasn't talking about Swann, I was talking about guys who are redshirting. If someone can make a Thomas-like jump from "on the bench" to "honorable all-pac-12" then we have a chance, especially if the secondary starts performing to form.

But, really, there's not a lot of reason for optimism on the defense. We'll probably need something like 2011 or 2015 to happen where the offense is so good that the defense just needs to be "good enough", though given the performance this year and our losses and our reserves, I'm not optimistic.

Then again, did we have any reason (besides Skov coming back) to think we'd get the performance we did in 2012? Hope springs eternal...

Re: Championship Game Thread - BostonCard - 12-02-2017

The problem is that we need two such players.  Cotton is out of eligibility and Phillips is leaving.  So, we need Swann and two players to be named later to be decent for us.  Maybe we luck into another grad transfer?

Also, noted in another thread, linebacker will be a position of crisis in two years.

BC

Re: Championship Game Thread - washingtonismoney - 12-02-2017

(12-02-2017, 08:14 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:I wasn't talking about Swann, I was talking about guys who are redshirting. If someone can make a Thomas-like jump from "on the bench" to "honorable all-pac-12" then we have a chance, especially if the secondary starts performing to form.

But, really, there's not a lot of reason for optimism on the defense. We'll probably need something like 2011 or 2015 to happen where the offense is so good that the defense just needs to be "good enough", though given the performance this year and our losses and our reserves, I'm not optimistic.

Then again, did we have any reason (besides Skov coming back) to think we'd get the performance we did in 2012? Hope springs eternal...

Right, but even if someone makes the leap from bench to honorable mention all pac-12 it's not good enough. Let's take the 2015 defense as a baseline. It was OK, ranking #64 in yards per play and #48 in points per drive allowed. (S&P+: 43rd; FEI: 45th; FPI: #43).

So what were the constituent parts on the defensive line? You had honorable mention Thomas... but then you also had first-team honoree Aziz Shittu. Also honorable mention Brennan Scarlett. So you had three all-Pac honorees to hold up a just-decent defense. Add to *that* first-team Blake Martinez and second-team Ronnie Harris and we start to see the level of talent necessary.

Relative to that baseline, we can see that the DL will fall well short even if we grant the premise that someone emerges as honorable mention all-conference from the bench this year. In fact the team will need multiple emergees just to keep pace with 2015.

The good news is that I think the other units can keep pace, if not exceed, 2015 pretty reasonably. Justin Reid will be better than Harris; Quenton Meeks with a bounce-back year would be all-conference. And then some group of Alameen Murphy, Holder, Malik Antoine, Paulson Adebo, etc. can fill out the defensive backfield. Bobby Okereke can give a good Blake Martinez impression, though I think he'll be slightly (but not complainably!) worse. We'll see about the rest of the unit but I like Toohill and Fox.

The defensive line problem, in my mind, is just too big.

(I think we had a very good reason to suspect 2012 would be really good: https://www.ruleoftree.com/2012/4/20/2962961/how-good-can-we-expect-the-defense-to-be-anyway)

Re: Championship Game Thread - winflop - 12-02-2017

(12-02-2017, 08:37 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:The problem is that we need two such players.  Cotton is out of eligibility and Phillips is leaving.  So, we need Swann and two players to be named later to be decent for us.  Maybe we luck into another grad transfer?

Also, noted in another thread, linebacker will be a position of crisis in two years.

BC

I think you mean to say LB will be a position of crisis AGAIN in two years, and really the crisis is at ILB more than OLB.

ILB: Next year we will have Okereke, Barton, Branch, Alfieri, and Perez as returning players who had any kind of real playing time. Perez should be on the scout team and Alfieri should be moved back to OLB full-time the ILB experiment was a failure. Need to develop two starting quality players in each of the next two offseasons because all five of these guys are gone after next season.

OLB: Only have three returning players with experience (Fox, Robinson, and Toohil) unless Alfieri stays at ILB which I think would be a big mistake. But all three of those guys have at least two years of eligibility left (Fox has 3). There appears to be a more promising pipeline of future players and the eligibility of those three gives the coaches time to develop them.

Re: Championship Game Thread - washingtonismoney - 12-02-2017

(12-02-2017, 09:37 AM)winflop link Wrote:... all five of these guys are gone after next season.

Barton is currently a redshirt sophomore, so his eligibility expires in 2019.

Re: Championship Game Thread - winflop - 12-02-2017

(12-02-2017, 09:45 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:[quote author=winflop link=topic=18246.msg216507#msg216507 date=1512232661]
... all five of these guys are gone after next season.

Barton is currently a redshirt sophomore, so his eligibility expires in 2019.
[/quote]

I stand corrected. So in two years we will have ONE player with experience to date. Doesn't change the overall bad picture for ILB.

Re: Championship Game Thread - stupac2 - 12-02-2017

(12-02-2017, 09:57 AM)winflop link Wrote:[quote author=washingtonismoney link=topic=18246.msg216512#msg216512 date=1512233111]
[quote author=winflop link=topic=18246.msg216507#msg216507 date=1512232661]
... all five of these guys are gone after next season.

Barton is currently a redshirt sophomore, so his eligibility expires in 2019.
[/quote]

I stand corrected. So in two years we will have ONE player with experience to date. Doesn't change the overall bad picture for ILB.
[/quote]

I don't follow recruiting closely but presumably we'll have some new players coming in between now and then.

Re: Championship Game Thread - CornFed - 12-02-2017

(12-01-2017, 10:04 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Indeed.  I wish we would have used Costello more in a running capacity.  I think he could be as good as Hogan.

BC

Probably true, but doesn't he seem like a "clunky" runner (to invent an application of that word).  Not a smooth runner and certainly doesn't seem quick or fast. 

Re: Championship Game Thread - BostonCard - 12-02-2017

(12-02-2017, 10:17 AM)CornFed link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=18246.msg216416#msg216416 date=1512191094]
Indeed.  I wish we would have used Costello more in a running capacity.  I think he could be as good as Hogan.

BC

Probably true, but doesn't he seem like a "clunky" runner (to invent an application of that word).  Not a smooth runner and certainly doesn't seem quick or fast.
[/quote]

Perhaps, my brother remarked that had he cut inside on the keeper, he would have scored; instead he reached for the pylon and was stopped about 3 yards short.

BC

Re: Championship Game Thread - JJJ - 12-02-2017

Don't know if this has been posted already (and don't really feel like reliving the game by reading the thread)...

https://www.ruleoftree.com/2017/12/2/16727194/did-the-refs-cost-stanford-a-pac-12-championship

Re: Championship Game Thread - stupac2 - 12-02-2017

(12-02-2017, 04:09 PM)JJJ link Wrote:Don't know if this has been posted already (and don't really feel like reliving the game by reading the thread)...

https://www.ruleoftree.com/2017/12/2/16727194/did-the-refs-cost-stanford-a-pac-12-championship

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines

(I know the article argues otherwise but I'm going to file that under "shoulda woulda coulda" and say this still applies.)

Re: Championship Game Thread - winflop - 12-02-2017

I try to follow what I once heard Coach Shaw say about enjoying a win or digesting a loss for 24 hours. It's been 24 hours, and I'm still VERY salty about last night and still have a bitter taste in my mouth. Maybe I need 48? Or maybe a week

RE: Championship Game Thread - BostonCard - 12-02-2019

(12-02-2017, 08:37 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  The problem is that we need two such players.  Cotton is out of eligibility and Phillips is leaving.  So, we need Swann and two players to be named later to be decent for us.  Maybe we luck into another grad transfer?



Also, noted in another thread, linebacker will be a position of crisis in two years.



BC

Man, I should have bought some lottery tickets in Dec. 2017, but as the thread shows, a lot of people saw it (kudos to winflop for elaborating that the situation was going to be more acute at ILB).

On the flip side, the "mystery men" turned out to be Williams and Booker.

By the way, two years from now, the crisis may be at defensive line again.  And safety.

History rhymes.

BC