Outside Topic SF Giants 2024 - Printable Version
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RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 01-19-2024
(01-19-2024, 02:46 PM)Mick Wrote:(01-19-2024, 01:14 PM)lex24 Wrote:(01-19-2024, 12:58 PM)Mick Wrote:(01-19-2024, 08:56 AM)lex24 Wrote:(01-18-2024, 09:03 AM)Mick Wrote: What I like about the Jordan Hicks deal:
1) He can throw 105 and is throwing more four seam fastballs.
2) He really, really, really wants to start.
3) His two key pitches are a sinker and a slider, both around 99 mph.
4) He has added a curve, which he only throws 6% of the time, and late last season added a sweeper. After adding the curve and the sweeper, his ERA dropped from 3.93 to 2.48.
5) He's only 27.
6) He was fully healthy all of last year.
7) The MLB reliever-to-starter transition is not all that rare and includes pitchers like Seth Lugo, Michael Lorenzen, Zack Wheeler, Jeffrey Springs, Derek Lowe, Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija, Johan Santana, Adam Wainwright and C.J. Wilson.
I'm very optimistic about it. Couple that with the fact that Webb, Beck and Harrison are considered to be in the Top 30 in MLB rankings, and they'll have Cobb in June and Ray in July, plus potential from Whisenhunt and Winn...the Giants should have pitching if nothing else. Oh yeah, and Ross Stripling...
https://www.mlb.com/giants/news/jordan-hicks-giants-deal-questions-and-answers
https://www.mlb.com/news/jordan-hicks-is-a-unique-free-agent-reliever
I think you need to rethink No.7. It is rare. And several you listed - Wheeler, Sale Wainwright for example were not relievers turned into starters after several MLB years, They may have done some bullpen work - Wainwright certainly did his rookie year. But they were ticketed as starters.
I feel a wager coming on centered on whether or not he becomes a reasonably effective starter? I'll take 15 or more starts, you take...10 or fewer? Middle ground, no harm no foul?
We may have different definitions of “reasonably effective “! :)
How bout this 15 or more Starts and 85 or more innings as a starter you win
10 or less starts and 60 or less innings as a starter I win.
Innings pitched in relief do not count. Must win both. In middle we go Dutch! Bet is lunch in SJ.
Sounds great! Your terms are acceptable and I look forward to lunch in SJ.
85 innings might be a bit of a tall order...he hasn't pitched over 85 innings since high A ball, but he did go 8-3 as a starter that year in 19 starts. And he has electric stuff, and I'm curious to see how his four-pitch mix (five if you count four-seam and two-seam fastballs as two different pitches) works as a starter. Hopefully, at 27 and past one surgery he has the stamina.
Great. I’m like to make one change. 10 and 60 should be 10 and 45. No way he pitches 10 or less and still has 60 starter innings. So, that’s a tad unfair to you. Sorry - should be 10 or less and 45 or less. That’s 4.5 innings maximum of 10 starts.
Much fairer figure
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 01-20-2024
(01-19-2024, 02:59 PM)lex24 Wrote:(01-19-2024, 02:46 PM)Mick Wrote:(01-19-2024, 01:14 PM)lex24 Wrote:(01-19-2024, 12:58 PM)Mick Wrote:(01-19-2024, 08:56 AM)lex24 Wrote: I think you need to rethink No.7. It is rare. And several you listed - Wheeler, Sale Wainwright for example were not relievers turned into starters after several MLB years, They may have done some bullpen work - Wainwright certainly did his rookie year. But they were ticketed as starters.
I feel a wager coming on centered on whether or not he becomes a reasonably effective starter? I'll take 15 or more starts, you take...10 or fewer? Middle ground, no harm no foul?
We may have different definitions of “reasonably effective “! :)
How bout this 15 or more Starts and 85 or more innings as a starter you win
10 or less starts and 60 or less innings as a starter I win.
Innings pitched in relief do not count. Must win both. In middle we go Dutch! Bet is lunch in SJ.
Sounds great! Your terms are acceptable and I look forward to lunch in SJ.
85 innings might be a bit of a tall order...he hasn't pitched over 85 innings since high A ball, but he did go 8-3 as a starter that year in 19 starts. And he has electric stuff, and I'm curious to see how his four-pitch mix (five if you count four-seam and two-seam fastballs as two different pitches) works as a starter. Hopefully, at 27 and past one surgery he has the stamina.
Great. I’m like to make one change. 10 and 60 should be 10 and 45. No way he pitches 10 or less and still has 60 starter innings. So, that’s a tad unfair to you. Sorry - should be 10 or less and 45 or less. That’s 4.5 innings maximum of 10 starts.
Much fairer figure
Outstanding. You're on!
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 01-25-2024
Pederson signing with Diamondbacks. Details not released.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 01-25-2024
(01-25-2024, 03:26 PM)Mick Wrote: Pederson signing with Diamondbacks. Details not released.
Hopefully, they will put him in the OF. :)
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 01-25-2024
(01-25-2024, 04:44 PM)Giants Wrote:(01-25-2024, 03:26 PM)Mick Wrote: Pederson signing with Diamondbacks. Details not released.
Hopefully, they will put him in the OF. :)
Probably LF. That's closest to their concessions... ;)
BTW, the contract is $9.5 mms. About half of what Pederson made last year. Mutual option for 2025.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-02-2024
The Giants just sent Ross Stripling and cash to the A's for a minor leaguer, Jonah Cox. He is unremarkable. I am hopeful that this is just a workaround to increase their available cap space in order to sign a big hitter like Bellinger or a big picture like Snell.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 02-02-2024
(02-02-2024, 11:54 AM)Mick Wrote: The Giants just sent Ross Stripling and cash to the A's for a minor leaguer, Jonah Cox. He is unremarkable. I am hopeful that this is just a workaround to increase their available cap space in order to sign a big hitter like Bellinger or a big picture like Snell.
Bellinger/Snell - no thanks.
Chapman - yes please.
Last year’s acquisitions of Manea, Stripling, Haniger and Conforto sure are looking like great deals now. What a waste of resources………..
Zaidi is the king of digging through the refuse pile in hopes of finding a discarded Rembrandt. To date, that has yielded a bunch of worthless paintings by guys that are long forgotten……
I hope it isn’t too late to be welcomed to the Anti-Zaidi bandwagon……
triangle2 - triangle2 - 02-02-2024
(02-02-2024, 12:17 PM)Giants Wrote:(02-02-2024, 11:54 AM)Mick Wrote: The Giants just sent Ross Stripling and cash to the A's for a minor leaguer, Jonah Cox. He is unremarkable. I am hopeful that this is just a workaround to increase their available cap space in order to sign a big hitter like Bellinger or a big picture like Snell.
Bellinger/Snell - no thanks.
Chapman - yes please.
Last year’s acquisitions of Manea, Stripling, Haniger and Conforto sure are looking like great deals now. What a waste of resources………..
Zaidi is the king of digging through the refuse pile in hopes of finding a discarded Rembrandt. To date, that has yielded a bunch of worthless paintings by guys that are long forgotten……
I hope it isn’t too late to be welcomed to the Anti-Zaidi bandwagon……
Welcome to the dark side.
This feels like a scene from Moneyball Part Deux. Zaidi: “We’re trading Stripling. No one will want to take his contract, so we’ll have to ship him out with cash. [Pause] Get the A’s on the phone.” Some underling holding an iPad pipes up: “Uh, but Farhan, this leaves us with only one starter with more than a half-year of MLB service time.” Farhan: “You’re forgetting Hicks. Hicks!” Underling starts to speak, stops, pivots to updating resume on LinkedIn.
Cut to Scott Boras’ office. “Hey Scott, the Giants just sold Stripling and cash to the A’s for some minor league OF who can’t hit.” Boras evil grin: “Zaidi is going to look like a total fool when the Angels match him for Snell.”
In all seriousness though, trading Stripling now does suggest that some other move is about to happen.
RE: triangle2 - Mick - 02-02-2024
(02-02-2024, 12:51 PM)triangle2 Wrote:(02-02-2024, 12:17 PM)Giants Wrote:(02-02-2024, 11:54 AM)Mick Wrote: The Giants just sent Ross Stripling and cash to the A's for a minor leaguer, Jonah Cox. He is unremarkable. I am hopeful that this is just a workaround to increase their available cap space in order to sign a big hitter like Bellinger or a big picture like Snell.
Bellinger/Snell - no thanks.
Chapman - yes please.
Last year’s acquisitions of Manea, Stripling, Haniger and Conforto sure are looking like great deals now. What a waste of resources………..
Zaidi is the king of digging through the refuse pile in hopes of finding a discarded Rembrandt. To date, that has yielded a bunch of worthless paintings by guys that are long forgotten……
I hope it isn’t too late to be welcomed to the Anti-Zaidi bandwagon……
Welcome to the dark side.
This feels like a scene from Moneyball Part Deux. Zaidi: “We’re trading Stripling. No one will want to take his contract, so we’ll have to ship him out with cash. [Pause] Get the A’s on the phone.” Some underling holding an iPad pipes up: “Uh, but Farhan, this leaves us with only one starter with more than a half-year of MLB service time.” Farhan: “You’re forgetting Hicks. Hicks!” Underling starts to speak, stops, pivots to updating resume on LinkedIn.
Cut to Scott Boras’ office. “Hey Scott, the Giants just sold Stripling and cash to the A’s for some minor league OF who can’t hit.” Boras evil grin: “Zaidi is going to look like a total fool when the Angels match him for Snell.”
In all seriousness though, trading Stripling now does suggest that some other move is about to happen.
And the Giants kicked in just $3.25 million on a $12.5 million contract. So the A's are picking up the bulk of it. Giants now have slightly more than $54 million in cap availability before the luxury tax kicks in.
Forget about Buster Posey...have Hunter Pence sell San Francisco to free agents.
https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/mlb/san-francisco-giants/hunter-pence-sell-san-francisco-free-agents/1697832/
(02-02-2024, 12:17 PM)Giants Wrote:(02-02-2024, 11:54 AM)Mick Wrote: The Giants just sent Ross Stripling and cash to the A's for a minor leaguer, Jonah Cox. He is unremarkable. I am hopeful that this is just a workaround to increase their available cap space in order to sign a big hitter like Bellinger or a big picture like Snell.
Bellinger/Snell - no thanks.
Chapman - yes please.
Snell's supposed asking price of $270 million/9 years is ridiculous for a guy who has had two great seasons...and six mediocre seasons, AND led the league in walks last year (admittedly led the league in fewest hits per nine innings). Yankees wouldn't go higher than six years, $150 mms. The only two teams who are left according to the rumors are the Angels and the Giants. Would Farhan pull the trigger at 6 years, $180 million? And six years, $200 million for Bellinger?
RE: triangle2 - Giants - 02-02-2024
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1706906030' Wrote: 1706906030[/url]']
triangle2 dateline='[url=tel:1706903477' Wrote: 1706903477[/url]']
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1706901436' Wrote: 1706901436[/url]']
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1706900079' Wrote: 1706900079[/url]']
The Giants just sent Ross Stripling and cash to the A's for a minor leaguer, Jonah Cox. He is unremarkable. I am hopeful that this is just a workaround to increase their available cap space in order to sign a big hitter like Bellinger or a big picture like Snell.
Bellinger/Snell - no thanks.
Chapman - yes please.
Last year’s acquisitions of Manea, Stripling, Haniger and Conforto sure are looking like great deals now. What a waste of resources………..
Zaidi is the king of digging through the refuse pile in hopes of finding a discarded Rembrandt. To date, that has yielded a bunch of worthless paintings by guys that are long forgotten……
I hope it isn’t too late to be welcomed to the Anti-Zaidi bandwagon……
Welcome to the dark side.
This feels like a scene from Moneyball Part Deux. Zaidi: “We’re trading Stripling. No one will want to take his contract, so we’ll have to ship him out with cash. [Pause] Get the A’s on the phone.” Some underling holding an iPad pipes up: “Uh, but Farhan, this leaves us with only one starter with more than a half-year of MLB service time.” Farhan: “You’re forgetting Hicks. Hicks!” Underling starts to speak, stops, pivots to updating resume on LinkedIn.
Cut to Scott Boras’ office. “Hey Scott, the Giants just sold Stripling and cash to the A’s for some minor league OF who can’t hit.” Boras evil grin: “Zaidi is going to look like a total fool when the Angels match him for Snell.”
In all seriousness though, trading Stripling now does suggest that some other move is about to happen.
And the Giants kicked in just $3.25 million on a $12.5 million contract. So the A's are picking up the bulk of it. Giants now have slightly more than $54 million in cap availability before the luxury tax kicks in.
Forget about Buster Posey...have Hunter Pence sell San Francisco to free agents.
https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/mlb/san-francisco-giants/hunter-pence-sell-san-francisco-free-agents/1697832/
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1706901436' Wrote: 1706901436[/url]']
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1706900079' Wrote: 1706900079[/url]']
The Giants just sent Ross Stripling and cash to the A's for a minor leaguer, Jonah Cox. He is unremarkable. I am hopeful that this is just a workaround to increase their available cap space in order to sign a big hitter like Bellinger or a big picture like Snell.
Bellinger/Snell - no thanks.
Chapman - yes please.
Snell's supposed asking price of $270 million/9 years is ridiculous for a guy who has had two great seasons...and six mediocre seasons, AND led the league in walks last year (admittedly led the league in fewest hits per nine innings). Yankees wouldn't go higher than six years, $150 mms. The only two teams who are left according to the rumors are the Angels and the Giants. Would Farhan pull the trigger at 6 years, $180 million? And six years, $200 million for Bellinger?
Should or would?
Should - absolutely no and no.
Would - I doubt it but I have learned not to be surprised by anything he does - where’s Brian Sabean when you need him?
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-05-2024
Interesting, stats-heavy Sports Illustrated article on Casey Schmitt. Schmitt felt he was unlucky last season and the numbers (sort of) back up that assertion. You'd expect most of the numbers; he didn't walk enough, he swung at too many pitches out of the strike zone (though his strikeout rate was only slightly higher than the MLB average), he has plenty of power.
https://www.si.com/mlb/giants/news/sf-giants-prospects-casey-schmitt-reflects-unlucky-rookie-season
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-05-2024
(01-12-2024, 07:51 PM)lex24 Wrote:Mick dateline='[url=tel:1705091679' Wrote: 1705091679[/url]']
I'm a of immense proportions critic of Farhan, but I REALLY like this choice. It's a great idea...excellent arm, throws lots of ground balls, Giants have experience with openers, they have good backup arms if he gets into trouble. He was a starter for two years in the low minors and crushed it (of course). Significant upside, minimal downside. In spacious Oracle, I think he will do great and better than Snell, Yamamoto, Imanaga and Stroman by the end of the season. And it leaves the Giants with enough money to sign Soler and/or Bellinger. Great, great signing. I think this might save Farhan's reputation. He's already saved his job with that extension.
Wish I could share your enthusiasm. I don’t. Typical bargain basement FA.
Susan Slusser is reporting that the Giants are talking to Jorge Soler's representatives today. 32 years old this season, 6'4"/235 lbs, right-handed DH, hit 36 HRs and 24 doubles in 504 ABs last year for the Marlins, was Miami's All-Star representative, declined a $9 mms. base salary option. As a solid bonus, he does really well at Oracle (his fifth best park and second best NL park), both last year and throughout his career. www.baseballsavant.com says he would have hit 32 home runs at Oracle. We haven't had a 30+ HR hitter since Mr. Bonds.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jorge-soler-624585?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
In the OF, has a cannon for an arm and very limited range. Teams aren't paying as much for free agent DHs now. The Mariners (Mitch Garver, two years/$24M), Blue Jays (Justin Turner, one year/$13M) and Diamondbacks (Joc Pederson, one year, $12.5M) have all gone in other directions. Experts are saying SOler should get 2-3 years at $14 mms. to $18 mms. annually.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 02-08-2024
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1707163659' Wrote: 1707163659[/url]']
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1705114283' Wrote: 1705114283[/url]']
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1705091679' Wrote: 1705091679[/url]']
I'm a of immense proportions critic of Farhan, but I REALLY like this choice. It's a great idea...excellent arm, throws lots of ground balls, Giants have experience with openers, they have good backup arms if he gets into trouble. He was a starter for two years in the low minors and crushed it (of course). Significant upside, minimal downside. In spacious Oracle, I think he will do great and better than Snell, Yamamoto, Imanaga and Stroman by the end of the season. And it leaves the Giants with enough money to sign Soler and/or Bellinger. Great, great signing. I think this might save Farhan's reputation. He's already saved his job with that extension.
Wish I could share your enthusiasm. I don’t. Typical bargain basement FA.
Susan Slusser is reporting that the Giants are talking to Jorge Soler's representatives today. 32 years old this season, 6'4"/235 lbs, right-handed DH, hit 36 HRs and 24 doubles in 504 ABs last year for the Marlins, was Miami's All-Star representative, declined a $9 mms. base salary option. As a solid bonus, he does really well at Oracle (his fifth best park and second best NL park), both last year and throughout his career. www.baseballsavant.com says he would have hit 32 home runs at Oracle. We haven't had a 30+ HR hitter since Mr. Bonds.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jorge-soler-624585?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
In the OF, has a cannon for an arm and very limited range. Teams aren't paying as much for free agent DHs now. The Mariners (Mitch Garver, two years/$24M), Blue Jays (Justin Turner, one year/$13M) and Diamondbacks (Joc Pederson, one year, $12.5M) have all gone in other directions. Experts are saying SOler should get 2-3 years at $14 mms. to $18 mms. annually.
Purely a DH. Unless they add and change some other pieces, I am not be in favor of signing him. He is an awful outfielder. We’ve seen that before. A lot.
Giants did make a “small“ move. Literally. Signed left-handed relief pitcher Ethan Small.
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1707154916' Wrote: 1707154916[/url]']
Interesting, stats-heavy Sports Illustrated article on Casey Schmitt. Schmitt felt he was unlucky last season and the numbers (sort of) back up that assertion. You'd expect most of the numbers; he didn't walk enough, he swung at too many pitches out of the strike zone (though his strikeout rate was only slightly higher than the MLB average), he has plenty of power.
https://www.si.com/mlb/giants/news/sf-giants-prospects-casey-schmitt-reflects-unlucky-rookie-season
I’d be more inclined to be interested if I didn’t see him consistently swinging at offspeed stuff in the dirt. The hit tool has always been his question. I was encouraged in that he appears capable of handling and turning on a fastball in. If he can become just a tad more patient – not, everybody has to be Lamont Wade – and learn the strike zone, a bit better, he might be a decent major league hitter. Otherwise, he’s going to go the way that so many have before him. Destroyed by the breaking ball
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-08-2024
(02-08-2024, 09:26 AM)lex24 Wrote: I’d be more inclined to be interested if I didn’t see him consistently swinging at offspeed stuff in the dirt. The hit tool has always been his question. I was encouraged in that he appears capable of handling and turning on a fastball in. If he can become just a tad more patient – not, everybody has to be Lamont Wade – and learn the strike zone, a bit better, he might be a decent major league hitter. Otherwise, he’s going to go the way that so many have before him. Destroyed by the breaking ball
Brandon Belt was like that for the longest time, and he figured it out -- eventually. Speaking of which, he's still a free agent and hit 19 HRs in 334 ABs last year...although he would have only projected to 14 HRs at Oracle, per baseball savant.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/brandon-belt-474832?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
BTW, Belt's profile is what makes me suspicious of Bellinger, who had a good season in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Per baseball savant, from 2016 to 2023, Belt would have had almost twice as many home runs at Wrigley as he did at Oracle (206 vs. 108).
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-08-2024
JD Davis won his arbitration hearing today. He'll get paid $6.9 million instead of the club's proposed $6.55 million. That puts the Giants payroll at an even $200 million, $37 million short of the luxury tax level...enough to pay for another high level free agent or two.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 02-08-2024
(02-08-2024, 03:48 PM)Mick Wrote: JD Davis won his arbitration hearing today. He'll get paid $6.9 million instead of the club's proposed $6.55 million. That puts the Giants payroll at an even $200 million, $37 million short of the luxury tax level...enough to pay for another high level free agent or two.
Payroll is around $155,000,000. EST luxury tax payroll just under 200,000,000. That is according to FanGraphs. Sportrac has the estimated luxury tax figure (which is the more important figure) significantly lower.
(02-08-2024, 01:27 PM)Mick Wrote:(02-08-2024, 09:26 AM)lex24 Wrote: I’d be more inclined to be interested if I didn’t see him consistently swinging at offspeed stuff in the dirt. The hit tool has always been his question. I was encouraged in that he appears capable of handling and turning on a fastball in. If he can become just a tad more patient – not, everybody has to be Lamont Wade – and learn the strike zone, a bit better, he might be a decent major league hitter. Otherwise, he’s going to go the way that so many have before him. Destroyed by the breaking ball
Brandon Belt was like that for the longest time, and he figured it out -- eventually. Speaking of which, he's still a free agent and hit 19 HRs in 334 ABs last year...although he would have only projected to 14 HRs at Oracle, per baseball savant.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/brandon-belt-474832?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
BTW, Belt's profile is what makes me suspicious of Bellinger, who had a good season in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Per baseball savant, from 2016 to 2023, Belt would have had almost twice as many home runs at Wrigley as he did at Oracle (206 vs. 108).
Belt always has had a terrific eye. Rarely chases pitches out of the zone. That’s been true since day one.
Bellinger – his home and road splits last year were almost identical. Oracle will cost him some HR’s. But it shouldn’t hurt the rest of his production.
He’s a tough one. Because his “hard hit rate“ was not particularly thrilling. But at the same time he cut his strikeouts about in half. Also, he’s a terrific athlete. A very good defensive player, both at first base and in the outfield and he’s fast.
The question I’d ask myself if I’m thinking of signing Bellinger is whether I see 2023 as his new ceiling: or a recovery year.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-08-2024
(02-08-2024, 06:23 PM)lex24 Wrote:(02-08-2024, 03:48 PM)Mick Wrote: JD Davis won his arbitration hearing today. He'll get paid $6.9 million instead of the club's proposed $6.55 million. That puts the Giants payroll at an even $200 million, $37 million short of the luxury tax level...enough to pay for another high level free agent or two.
Payroll is around $155,000,000. EST luxury tax payroll just under 200,000,000. That is according to FanGraphs. Sportrac has the estimated luxury tax figure (which is the more important figure) significantly lower.
(02-08-2024, 01:27 PM)Mick Wrote:(02-08-2024, 09:26 AM)lex24 Wrote: I’d be more inclined to be interested if I didn’t see him consistently swinging at offspeed stuff in the dirt. The hit tool has always been his question. I was encouraged in that he appears capable of handling and turning on a fastball in. If he can become just a tad more patient – not, everybody has to be Lamont Wade – and learn the strike zone, a bit better, he might be a decent major league hitter. Otherwise, he’s going to go the way that so many have before him. Destroyed by the breaking ball
Brandon Belt was like that for the longest time, and he figured it out -- eventually. Speaking of which, he's still a free agent and hit 19 HRs in 334 ABs last year...although he would have only projected to 14 HRs at Oracle, per baseball savant.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/brandon-belt-474832?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
BTW, Belt's profile is what makes me suspicious of Bellinger, who had a good season in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Per baseball savant, from 2016 to 2023, Belt would have had almost twice as many home runs at Wrigley as he did at Oracle (206 vs. 108).
Belt always has had a terrific eye. Rarely chases pitches out of the zone. That’s been true since day one.
Bellinger – his home and road splits last year were almost identical. Oracle will cost him some HR’s. But it shouldn’t hurt the rest of his production.
He’s a tough one. Because his “hard hit rate“ was not particularly thrilling. But at the same time he cut his strikeouts about in half. Also, he’s a terrific athlete. A very good defensive player, both at first base and in the outfield and he’s fast.
The question I’d ask myself if I’m thinking of signing Bellinger is whether I see 2023 as his new ceiling: or a recovery year.
Who knows. Baseball Savant thinks Oracle would cost Bellinger nearly half of his home runs, at least based on his 2016-2023 production
Cody Bellinger Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 02-10-2024
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1707453014' Wrote: 1707453014[/url]']
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1707441781' Wrote: 1707441781[/url]']
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1707432533' Wrote: 1707432533[/url]']
JD Davis won his arbitration hearing today. He'll get paid $6.9 million instead of the club's proposed $6.55 million. That puts the Giants payroll at an even $200 million, $37 million short of the luxury tax level...enough to pay for another high level free agent or two.
Payroll is around $155,000,000. EST luxury tax payroll just under 200,000,000. That is according to FanGraphs. Sportrac has the estimated luxury tax figure (which is the more important figure) significantly lower.
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1707424036' Wrote: 1707424036[/url]']
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1707409605' Wrote: 1707409605[/url]']
I’d be more inclined to be interested if I didn’t see him consistently swinging at offspeed stuff in the dirt. The hit tool has always been his question. I was encouraged in that he appears capable of handling and turning on a fastball in. If he can become just a tad more patient – not, everybody has to be Lamont Wade – and learn the strike zone, a bit better, he might be a decent major league hitter. Otherwise, he’s going to go the way that so many have before him. Destroyed by the breaking ball
Brandon Belt was like that for the longest time, and he figured it out -- eventually. Speaking of which, he's still a free agent and hit 19 HRs in 334 ABs last year...although he would have only projected to 14 HRs at Oracle, per baseball savant.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/brandon-belt-474832?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
BTW, Belt's profile is what makes me suspicious of Bellinger, who had a good season in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Per baseball savant, from 2016 to 2023, Belt would have had almost twice as many home runs at Wrigley as he did at Oracle (206 vs. 108).
Belt always has had a terrific eye. Rarely chases pitches out of the zone. That’s been true since day one.
Bellinger – his home and road splits last year were almost identical. Oracle will cost him some HR’s. But it shouldn’t hurt the rest of his production.
He’s a tough one. Because his “hard hit rate“ was not particularly thrilling. But at the same time he cut his strikeouts about in half. Also, he’s a terrific athlete. A very good defensive player, both at first base and in the outfield and he’s fast.
The question I’d ask myself if I’m thinking of signing Bellinger is whether I see 2023 as his new ceiling: or a recovery year.
Who knows. Baseball Savant thinks Oracle would cost Bellinger nearly half of his home runs, at least based on his 2016-2023 production
Cody Bellinger Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)
I’ve always wondered how Savant goes about determining the number of home runs one would’ve hit elsewhere. Wrigley is a great example. Did it analyze every single fly ball that Belt hit at Oracle factoring in weather and then take a look at each one of those assuming he was playing at Wrigley – again taking into account weather conditions. (As you know, Wrigley is essentially two ballparks – a hitters paradise when the wind is blowing out in a damn good place to pitch when the wind is blowing in)
I always also found Belt an interesting study. Here are his lifetime, splits (and last year was in line with these, so the home numbers reflect Oracle)
Home: .272/.370/468/829
Road. .250/.345/453/797
I find it particularly interesting that he had a higher slugging percentage at home despite the fact that he had 72 homers at Oracle and 103 on the road. Just let’s you know he had more extra base hits at Oracle. Which makes sense given the expanse of the OF.
if I’m the Giants, courting Bellinger, I use those. Bellinger is a power hitter. But he’s also a guy with tremendous speed that can hit for a high average. Oracle will take Home Runs away from him, but it may also give him more doubles and triples. It’s also an attractive outfield to play defensively. Whether it’s in right field or centerfield.
I get tired of the moaning about how hard it is to hit at Oracle It is definitely more of a pitchers park. But it’s not Death Valley. Indeed go back and look at the teams in the early 2000s when the Giants actually had a bunch of good hitters. Those teams didn’t seem to have much of a problem.
The Giants need an infusion of Roger Craig. Who famously when he took over over in 1985 essentially told the players to stop bitching about Candlestick and instead use the park to their advantage.
Oracle is a great place to play baseball. It’s a beautiful park. It’s a little bit of a quirky park for the outfielders. It’s a good place to pitch.
Giants won three titles there. They did it with great pitching, good defense, and solid and timely hitting. In fact, if I’m not mistaken, in the second half of the 2010 season, the Giants were at or near the top of the National League in Home Runs. And of course, they were also at the top in 2021.
Time for the organization to stop using it as excuse for not being able to bring in hitters.
If they have to pay a little little bit of a premium, so be it. Shouldn’t have to do that for pitchers, they should be lining up.
You want a hard sell for a ballpark – join the Colorado organization. Coors is famously a great place to hit. It also drains a team over the course of the year and there is the “Coors effect“ when they go on the road. A very interesting phenomenon where they struggle to hit particularly in the first series away from home. it also hits teams that come into Coors for a series. They tend to struggle their first game or two after. The reason – in Coors pitches simply don’t move anywhere near as much in the altitude. So, they go on the road and that slider has a bit more snap the sinker a bit more sink, etc. takes a while to adjust. Plus, the altitude adds to fatigue.
The real reason, imo, the Giants struggle to sign Free agents at this point is simple – there’s a behemoth 450 miles south. Players essentially know they’ve got no chance to challenge for the division. My biggest criticism of Zaidi and the organization in general is that they screwed the pooch after the 2021 season. That was a time to add on, to build. Kevin Gausman wanted to pitch for the Giants. Loved the organization. Yet they didn’t make him anything close to a competitive offer. Because Zaidi is afraid of five or six year contracts for pitchers nearing their 30s. Thus, he passed. I heard him interviewed on this recently. He took some “blame“. But he also said that the organization was being conservative financially, because ‘20 and ‘21 had been tough with the pandemic and then the limited crowds in ‘21. Shortsighted to say the least.
This winter so far has been very Zaidi like. He’s made two clever deal, getting rid of Haniger and DeSclafani and grabbing Robbie Ray and Hicks. Both relatively low risk moves with some potential reward. One for a guy coming off an injury (Giants love guys coming off injuries) another for someone who has essentially under achieved most his major league career.
Singing Lee was a little bit of a step outside the line. There is some risk there. He’s highly regarded – he’s also played at essentially a AA level. And the Giants have committed a lot of money.
I’ve read that February 14 is kind of the date to circle. Not just because it’s Valentine’s Day and you need to make certain you have something for your sweetheart, but because that’s the day teams can put people on the 60 man IL. Giants will move Ray and perhaps Cobb opening up two spots on the 40 Man roster. Other teams will be doing the same thing.
Bellinger, Chapman, Montgomery, Snell. Those are the four big pieces left on the board. Personally, I don’t want Snell. He can go pitch five and 1/3/innings elsewhere. if the Giants could grab either Bellinger or Chapman and Montgomery, it would, in my opinion, turn this winter into a highly successful one. If they don’t sign any of those four it’s a failure. Unless they have some magic trade up their sleeve. And if they do that they’re gonna lose pitching prospects.
Oh, they also need a shortstop. To go into the season with Luciano as their shortstop and either Schmitt or Fitzgerald as the only back up is organizational negligence . Tim Anderson was one of the worst players in baseball. But if you go back a couple years, he was a premium shortstop. Low risk, potentially solid reward shouldn’t cost a whole lot. A Zaidi special.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-10-2024
(02-10-2024, 09:11 AM)lex24 Wrote:Mick dateline='[url=tel:1707453014' Wrote: 1707453014[/url]']
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1707441781' Wrote: 1707441781[/url]']
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1707432533' Wrote: 1707432533[/url]']
JD Davis won his arbitration hearing today. He'll get paid $6.9 million instead of the club's proposed $6.55 million. That puts the Giants payroll at an even $200 million, $37 million short of the luxury tax level...enough to pay for another high level free agent or two.
Payroll is around $155,000,000. EST luxury tax payroll just under 200,000,000. That is according to FanGraphs. Sportrac has the estimated luxury tax figure (which is the more important figure) significantly lower.
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1707424036' Wrote: 1707424036[/url]']
lex24 dateline='[url=tel:1707409605' Wrote: 1707409605[/url]']
I’d be more inclined to be interested if I didn’t see him consistently swinging at offspeed stuff in the dirt. The hit tool has always been his question. I was encouraged in that he appears capable of handling and turning on a fastball in. If he can become just a tad more patient – not, everybody has to be Lamont Wade – and learn the strike zone, a bit better, he might be a decent major league hitter. Otherwise, he’s going to go the way that so many have before him. Destroyed by the breaking ball
Brandon Belt was like that for the longest time, and he figured it out -- eventually. Speaking of which, he's still a free agent and hit 19 HRs in 334 ABs last year...although he would have only projected to 14 HRs at Oracle, per baseball savant.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/brandon-belt-474832?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
BTW, Belt's profile is what makes me suspicious of Bellinger, who had a good season in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Per baseball savant, from 2016 to 2023, Belt would have had almost twice as many home runs at Wrigley as he did at Oracle (206 vs. 108).
Belt always has had a terrific eye. Rarely chases pitches out of the zone. That’s been true since day one.
Bellinger – his home and road splits last year were almost identical. Oracle will cost him some HR’s. But it shouldn’t hurt the rest of his production.
He’s a tough one. Because his “hard hit rate“ was not particularly thrilling. But at the same time he cut his strikeouts about in half. Also, he’s a terrific athlete. A very good defensive player, both at first base and in the outfield and he’s fast.
The question I’d ask myself if I’m thinking of signing Bellinger is whether I see 2023 as his new ceiling: or a recovery year.
Who knows. Baseball Savant thinks Oracle would cost Bellinger nearly half of his home runs, at least based on his 2016-2023 production
Cody Bellinger Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)
I’ve always wondered how Savant goes about determining the number of home runs one would’ve hit elsewhere. Wrigley is a great example. Did it analyze every single fly ball that Belt hit at Oracle factoring in weather and then take a look at each one of those assuming he was playing at Wrigley – again taking into account weather conditions. (As you know, Wrigley is essentially two ballparks – a hitters paradise when the wind is blowing out in a damn good place to pitch when the wind is blowing in)
I always also found Belt an interesting study. Here are his lifetime, splits (and last year was in line with these, so the home numbers reflect Oracle)
Home: .272/.370/468/829
Road. .250/.345/453/797
I find it particularly interesting that he had a higher slugging percentage at home despite the fact that he had 72 homers at Oracle and 103 on the road. Just let’s you know he had more extra base hits at Oracle. Which makes sense given the expanse of the OF.
if I’m the Giants, courting Bellinger, I use those. Bellinger is a power hitter. But he’s also a guy with tremendous speed that can hit for a high average. Oracle will take Home Runs away from him, but it may also give him more doubles and triples. It’s also an attractive outfield to play defensively. Whether it’s in right field or centerfield.
I get tired of the moaning about how hard it is to hit at Oracle It is definitely more of a pitchers park. But it’s not Death Valley. Indeed go back and look at the teams in the early 2000s when the Giants actually had a bunch of good hitters. Those teams didn’t seem to have much of a problem.
The Giants need an infusion of Roger Craig. Who famously when he took over over in 1985 essentially told the players to stop bitching about Candlestick and instead use the park to their advantage.
Oracle is a great place to play baseball. It’s a beautiful park. It’s a little bit of a quirky park for the outfielders. It’s a good place to pitch.
Giants won three titles there. They did it with great pitching, good defense, and solid and timely hitting. In fact, if I’m not mistaken, in the second half of the 2010 season, the Giants were at or near the top of the National League in Home Runs. And of course, they were also at the top in 2021.
Time for the organization to stop using it as excuse for not being able to bring in hitters.
If they have to pay a little little bit of a premium, so be it. Shouldn’t have to do that for pitchers, they should be lining up.
You want a hard sell for a ballpark – join the Colorado organization. Coors is famously a great place to hit. It also drains a team over the course of the year and there is the “Coors effect“ when they go on the road. A very interesting phenomenon where they struggle to hit particularly in the first series away from home. it also hits teams that come into Coors for a series. They tend to struggle their first game or two after. The reason – in Coors pitches simply don’t move anywhere near as much in the altitude. So, they go on the road and that slider has a bit more snap the sinker a bit more sink, etc. takes a while to adjust. Plus, the altitude adds to fatigue.
The real reason, imo, the Giants struggle to sign Free agents at this point is simple – there’s a behemoth 450 miles south. Players essentially know they’ve got no chance to challenge for the division. My biggest criticism of Zaidi and the organization in general is that they screwed the pooch after the 2021 season. That was a time to add on, to build. Kevin Gausman wanted to pitch for the Giants. Loved the organization. Yet they didn’t make him anything close to a competitive offer. Because Zaidi is afraid of five or six year contracts for pitchers nearing their 30s. Thus, he passed. I heard him interviewed on this recently. He took some “blame“. But he also said that the organization was being conservative financially, because ‘20 and ‘21 had been tough with the pandemic and then the limited crowds in ‘21. Shortsighted to say the least.
This winter so far has been very Zaidi like. He’s made two clever deal, getting rid of Haniger and DeSclafani and grabbing Robbie Ray and Hicks. Both relatively low risk moves with some potential reward. One for a guy coming off an injury (Giants love guys coming off injuries) another for someone who has essentially under achieved most his major league career.
Singing Lee was a little bit of a step outside the line. There is some risk there. He’s highly regarded – he’s also played at essentially a AA level. And the Giants have committed a lot of money.
I’ve read that February 14 is kind of the date to circle. Not just because it’s Valentine’s Day and you need to make certain you have something for your sweetheart, but because that’s the day teams can put people on the 60 man IL. Giants will move Ray and perhaps Cobb opening up two spots on the 40 Man roster. Other teams will be doing the same thing.
Bellinger, Chapman, Montgomery, Snell. Those are the four big pieces left on the board. Personally, I don’t want Snell. He can go pitch five and 1/3/innings elsewhere. if the Giants could grab either Bellinger or Chapman and Montgomery, it would, in my opinion, turn this winter into a highly successful one. If they don’t sign any of those four it’s a failure. Unless they have some magic trade up their sleeve. And if they do that they’re gonna lose pitching prospects.
Oh, they also need a shortstop. To go into the season with Luciano as their shortstop and either Schmitt or Fitzgerald as the only back up is organizational negligence . Tim Anderson was one of the worst players in baseball. But if you go back a couple years, he was a premium shortstop. Low risk, potentially solid reward shouldn’t cost a whole lot. A Zaidi special.
Basically agree. Rather than Tim Anderson, how about Kike Hernandez? He's super utility, 32 years old, hit .262/.308/.423/.731 for the Dodgers when he left Boston. Has some pop, hits for average, mature. Played 7 positions for the Dodgers last year.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - cardcrimson - 02-10-2024
(02-10-2024, 09:34 AM)Mick Wrote: Basically agree. Rather than Tim Anderson, how about Kike Hernandez? He's super utility, 32 years old, hit .262/.308/.423/.731 for the Dodgers when he left Boston. Has some pop, hits for average, mature. Played 7 positions for the Dodgers last year.
I don't follow hot stove stuff all that closely, but isn't he exactly the type of player Farhan gets crucified for bringing in? Okay player, versatile, a retread. . . .