Outside Topic Covid-19 considerations - Printable Version
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RE: Covid-19 considerations - 82lsju - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 08:26 AM)Erika Wrote: [quote="82lsju" pid='271965' dateline='1583849865']
another site with easy to digest info on the spread of the coronavirus
https://ncov2019.live/data
Thanks for posting the link. That site was started and run by a high school kid from Mercer Island (hence the "Buy Me a Cup of Coffee" button).
I closed it and couldn't re-find it so I figured he was off doing what HS kids do...nice to see it is still active.
here's a story about him
https://www.timesofisrael.com/updated-every-minute-17-year-old-whiz-kids-coronavirus-site-used-by-millions/
RE: Covid-19 considerations - stupac2 - 03-10-2020
(03-09-2020, 09:51 PM)M T Wrote:(03-09-2020, 06:29 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: South Korea flattened the curve by mass testing and texting people with x distance of a confirmed case every time it happened. Japan is FOS. They aren’t testing hardly at all and trying to keep its numbers down because it doesn’t want the Olympics cancelled.
Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan have done very well to stop spread in part because of complete transparency about data and also based on being prepared by learning from SARS outbreak.
Why do people believe these bogus CFR numbers? The calculation they are using has a terrible flaw.
If Santa Clara County finds 1000 cases tomorrow, the CFR calculated this way would be 0.1%. That's great, right!
If Santa Clara County finds 100,000 cases tomorrow, the CFR calculated this way would be 0.001%. That's better! Get more cases and your CFR goes down! It doesn't matter how many eventually die!
This calculation makes the invalid assumption that all who have the disease will survive.
South Korea's death rate for cases that that have either died or discharged is greater than 30%, with no assumptions made about the outcome of those who are still fighting the disease. Not that such a number is terribly meaningful, but the CFR numbers they are using, and being quoted, are BOGUS.
For Wuhan, died/(died or discharged) is 7% now and slowly decreasing. A weekly marginal value is also decreasing, approaching 1.4%.
Why are people fixated on the CFR number anyway? If I told you a disease killed all and only left-handers with hands wider than 9", would you really care what the CFR was? Look at that graph from Italy (again, badly calculated).) If you're under a certain age, you have almost no risk of death. If you're over a certain age and you get the disease, you have a VERY high rate of death, possibly approaching 100%.
For Italy, only 12.9% of cases have gotten to an outcome of discharge or death. But over 13% of those 80+ that have gotten the disease have died. If only 12.9% of their cases have gotten to an outcome, then essentially all outcomes for those over 80+ have been death. It seems it might be pretty darn near 100% death rate for 80+, so far.
The numbers for the 70-79yo in Italy(6%) and China (8%) have suffered the same error. Those numbers assume everyone with the disease that hasn't died will survive. I wish it were true, but it won't be. Those numbers will climb. For China, the widely-circulated, miscalculated CFR at the time was 2.3%. Now, if you do the same miscalculation, you come up with 4.8%. Does that suggest the 8% CFR for 70-79 should be about 16%? I really don't have the numbers.
If the early (both China & Italy) demographics holds and the majority (China: 512 out of 1023 as of 11 Feb) of deaths occur in the 70+ age group (7% of the Chinese population), it is probably going to be really bad for seniors. It doesn't matter how many kids get sick.
I have not found demographic numbers that give the deaths & discharges per age group for any where.
One thing this misses is that the vast majority of cases are extremely mild, and those people might never seek care (or even know they're ill), so it's not clear how they factor into the "recovered" numbers. It seems like that number is just people who have been discharged by the hospital, in which case your denominator would be too low by about a factor of 5 (going with ~20% require hospitalization).
Of course if you're just trying to calculate a CFR for the cases that require hospitalization then that would be valid, but I'm not sure why you'd want to do that when the data with age is more informative.
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - 2006alum - 03-10-2020
Another domino falls - Ivy League has cancelled their bball tourneys:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/IvyLeague/status/1237398157526474752[/tweet]
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - JeffInCorvallis - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 08:56 AM)2006alum Wrote: Another domino falls - Ivy League has cancelled their bball tourneys:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/IvyLeague/status/1237398157526474752[/tweet]
Stanford is not sending the band to the Pac 12 men's tournament in Las Vegas. The band was present at the women's tournament.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - BostonCard - 03-10-2020
The take home message, regardless of the details, is that the disease is significantly more lethal than influenza, by about an order of magnitude, and that there is a steep increase in mortality with age.
Whether the CFR is anywhere 1% between 4% is of course important for the people who become infected, but is somewhat of an academic discussion in terms of understanding the how bad the disease is.
BC
RE: Covid-19 considerations - cardcrimson - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 09:30 AM)BostonCard Wrote: The take home message, regardless of the details, is that the disease is significantly more lethal than influenza, by about an order of magnitude, and that there is a steep increase in mortality with age.
Whether the CFR is anywhere 1% between 4% is of course important for the people who become infected, but is somewhat of an academic discussion in terms of understanding the how bad the disease is.
BC
Didn't think that is true as a blanket statement. Think it is significantly more lethal depending upon age group, correct? Less for the young (like zero), similar for the middle group, significantly higher for the old (like me).
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - cardcrimson - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 09:08 AM)JeffInCorvallis Wrote: Stanford is not sending the band to the Pac 12 men's tournament in Las Vegas. The band was present at the women's tournament.
Every cloud has its silver lining. . . .
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - Jamesy - 03-10-2020
University is recommending against all non-essential domestic travel yet athletes still traveling to competition. I guess athletics are considered essential?
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - teejers1 - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 09:45 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:(03-10-2020, 09:08 AM)JeffInCorvallis Wrote: Stanford is not sending the band to the Pac 12 men's tournament in Las Vegas. The band was present at the women's tournament.
Every cloud has its silver lining. . . .
Women made the P12 finals.
After Stanford loses to Cal in R1, will you reconsider your position re: band presence?
More generally, I smh at the band-bashing. All they do is support the athletic program - across so many sports - like no other group on campus. Certainly at the hoops games, I say we need more of the LSJUMB, not less.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - BostonCard - 03-10-2020
Yes, that's what I meant when I wrote "there is a steep increase in mortality with age.", but your point is well taken that for children and adolescents and possibly even young adults probably have a mortality rate comparable to influenza.
Some updates from the NY Times:
https://apple.news/ALqgOlHjgTNinEHYlJ5cHtw
Don't visit family members in nursing homes
New Rochelle in New York is now a "containment area". Wonder how fast that expands (remember, it was not long Italy went from a limited quarantine zone in Northern Italy to countrywide restrictions.
Sounds like Democrats and Republicans are united in not liking Trump's proposed stimulus (my personal opinion is that with the 10-year treasury at 0.5%, some fiscal stimulus may be warranted, and I think payroll holidays make sense)
BC
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - BostonCard - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 10:25 AM)teejers1 Wrote:(03-10-2020, 09:45 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:(03-10-2020, 09:08 AM)JeffInCorvallis Wrote: Stanford is not sending the band to the Pac 12 men's tournament in Las Vegas. The band was present at the women's tournament.
Every cloud has its silver lining. . . .
Women made the P12 finals.
After Stanford loses to Cal in R1, will you reconsider your position re: band presence?
More generally, I smh at the band-bashing. All they do is support the athletic program - across so many sports - like no other group on campus. Certainly at the hoops games, I say we need more of the LSJUMB, not less.
Totally agree. As I've gotten older, I've found them less funny, but that's not what they are there for.
BC
RE: Covid-19 considerations - OutsiderFan - 03-10-2020
My nurse friend in CT was who works at a senior care facility:
The State of Connecticut has banned ALL visitors to such facilities unless they are immediate family coming to see soon to expire patients.
I'll never think of New Rochelle the same way again when taking Metro North into the City.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - BostonCard - 03-10-2020
Here's a tracker of testing capability:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/COVID2019tests/status/1237352901590298626/photo/1[/tweet]
Updated with more current info.
BC
RE: Covid-19 considerations - burger - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 10:38 AM)BostonCard Wrote: Sounds like Democrats and Republicans are united in not liking Trump's proposed stimulus (my personal opinion is that with the 10-year treasury at 0.5%, some fiscal stimulus may be warranted, and I think payroll holidays make sense)I think most everyone is in agreement that some stimulus is a good idea. The question is how to get it to those who do (or soon will) need it most. I'm thinking about servers, bartenders, drivers, etc. who stand a good chance of losing income or losing their jobs outright if people stop going out or are legally prohibited from doing so. For those people, a small tax cut does nothing. Ditto for all the contractors and gig workers.
BC
A much better idea is to just send checks to everyone. Ultimately, I think something like this has to happen, otherwise we're soon going to end up with a brobdingnagian number of evictions and foreclosures. There are loads of people who are one or two missed paychecks away from homelessness. Tax cuts won't help them.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - OutsiderFan - 03-10-2020
Here's a look at how South Korea managed to get ahead of the Covid-19 curve:
https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-are-koreas-covid-19-death-rates-so-low/
RE: Covid-19 considerations - BostonCard - 03-10-2020
Grindr students are being sent home. Classes online until summer.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/thesandb/status/1237433883194527744?s=21[/tweet]
BC
This comparison is sobering...
[tweet]https://twitter.com/robaeprice/status/1237157244958994432?s=21[/tweet]
Note, however, the caveats in the fine print.
BC
RE: Covid-19 considerations - OutsiderFan - 03-10-2020
This is interesting, not because it is a school closing, but because of what it might represent.
Here you have a school saying it doesn't have any cases, but if it did, it couldn't guarantee the safety of students, faculty and staff. This makes me wonder if legal counsel is starting to advise schools and the like that they may be facing legal liability if they take reckless actions with the lives of those under their care, like continuing with classes and events.
This could have implications for the sports leagues, arena management companies, and cities too. There is no doubt in my mind Princess Cruises is going to face a mountain of law suits over their infected ships, so I wouldn't doubt universities and others holding public gatherings might be on the liability hook and they want to avoid at all costs.
Any tort lawyers here want to chime in?
[tweet]https://twitter.com/LEX18News/status/1237416638657503232[/tweet]
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - Jskass - 03-10-2020
Agree on Haas unless Oakland allowing ship to dock comes back to bite Alameda County or conflict with fact that Cal students now online.
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - cardcrimson - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 10:25 AM)teejers1 Wrote:(03-10-2020, 09:45 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:(03-10-2020, 09:08 AM)JeffInCorvallis Wrote: Stanford is not sending the band to the Pac 12 men's tournament in Las Vegas. The band was present at the women's tournament.
Every cloud has its silver lining. . . .
All they do is support the athletic program - across so many sports - like no other group on campus. Certainly at the hoops games, I say we need more of the LSJUMB, not less.
Fair point.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - cardcrimson - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 11:17 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: This is interesting, not because it is a school closing, but because of what it might represent.
Here you have a school saying it doesn't have any cases, but if it did, it couldn't guarantee the safety of students, faculty and staff. This makes me wonder if legal counsel is starting to advise schools and the like that they may be facing legal liability if they take reckless actions with the lives of those under their care, like continuing with classes and events.
This could have implications for the sports leagues, arena management companies, and cities too. There is no doubt in my mind Princess Cruises is going to face a mountain of law suits over their infected ships, so I wouldn't doubt universities and others holding public gatherings might be on the liability hook and they want to avoid at all costs.
Any tort lawyers here want to chime in?
[tweet]https://twitter.com/LEX18News/status/1237416638657503232[/tweet]
I wonder if the fact that Berea is a tuition free college makes any difference.