Outside Topic Giants/Niners 2021 thread

Outside Topic Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Printable Version

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RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - lex24 - 06-13-2021

(06-13-2021, 03:47 PM)Phogge Wrote: Watched a few innings of Stanford in the NCAA. They have a rodeo belt buckle full of info. The hitters look at coach after every pitch. I think Marquess started that. Jesus, let them play. I bet the kids have more fun playing strikeout.

Computers have taken the game over.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 06-13-2021

Spin rates, blah. What's your launch angle Lex?

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Mick - 06-13-2021

(06-13-2021, 03:45 PM)DC 86 Wrote: Indeed. On-base percentage correlates much more strongly with run scoring than batting average and Bailey's OBP in college were .419, .390 and .466. Moreover his junior year power in a limited sample was not anomalous, his slugging percentages were .604, .513 and .685, so his batting average needs to be considered in the context of a power hitter. And all of his numbers need to be considered in the context of catchers. Catchers in aggregate are hitting .222 in MLB this year with a .303 OBP and .382 slugging percentage, so the bar is low. He may or may not make it, but it's far too early to draw conclusions, especially after an 11 month layoff.

Well, I hope his OBP improves over his .296 at high-A Eugene, same with his .301 slugging percentage and his 24% "caught stealing" rate.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - lex24 - 06-13-2021

(06-13-2021, 06:01 PM)Phogge Wrote: Spin rates, blah. What's your launch angle Lex?

Working on it. Along with my exit velocity…..

(06-13-2021, 09:52 PM)Mick Wrote:
(06-13-2021, 03:45 PM)DC 86 Wrote: Indeed. On-base percentage correlates much more strongly with run scoring than batting average and Bailey's OBP in college were .419, .390 and .466. Moreover his junior year power in a limited sample was not anomalous, his slugging percentages were .604, .513 and .685, so his batting average needs to be considered in the context of a power hitter. And all of his numbers need to be considered in the context of catchers. Catchers in aggregate are hitting .222 in MLB this year with a .303 OBP and .382 slugging percentage, so the bar is low. He may or may not make it, but it's far too early to draw conclusions, especially after an 11 month layoff.

Well, I hope his OBP improves over his .296 at high-A Eugene, same with his .301 slugging percentage and his 24% "caught stealing" rate.

SSS Mick. Give the kid some time.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Mick - 06-13-2021

(06-13-2021, 09:56 PM)lex24 Wrote:
(06-13-2021, 06:01 PM)Phogge Wrote: Spin rates, blah. What's your launch angle Lex?

Working on it. Along with my exit velocity…..

(06-13-2021, 09:52 PM)Mick Wrote:
(06-13-2021, 03:45 PM)DC 86 Wrote: Indeed. On-base percentage correlates much more strongly with run scoring than batting average and Bailey's OBP in college were .419, .390 and .466. Moreover his junior year power in a limited sample was not anomalous, his slugging percentages were .604, .513 and .685, so his batting average needs to be considered in the context of a power hitter. And all of his numbers need to be considered in the context of catchers. Catchers in aggregate are hitting .222 in MLB this year with a .303 OBP and .382 slugging percentage, so the bar is low. He may or may not make it, but it's far too early to draw conclusions, especially after an 11 month layoff.

Well, I hope his OBP improves over his .296 at high-A Eugene, same with his .301 slugging percentage and his 24% "caught stealing" rate.

SSS Mick. Give the kid some time.

Totally agree. Hope to see him in the bigs in 2023 and the all star team by 2025.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - DC 86 - 06-14-2021

(06-13-2021, 10:05 PM)Mick Wrote: Hope to see him in the bigs in 2023 and the all star team by 2025.

I would like that too, but notwithstanding my assertion that it's premature to draw any conclusions from 30 minor league games, Bailey becoming an all star would greatly exceed expectations.

These are the thirteenth overall picks from twenty drafts (1996-2015; it's too early to assess the last five years' selections): Rob Stratton, Kyle Peterson (Stanford ace), J.M. Gold, Mike Paradis, Shaun Boyd, Casey Kotchman, Khalil Greene, Aaron Hill, Bill Bray, Brandon Snyder, Tyler Colvin, Beau Mills, Brett Wallace, Grant Green, Chris Sale, Brandon Nimmo, Courtney Hawkins, Hunter Renfroe, Trea Turner and Garrett Whitley. Sobering.

7/20 never reached the major leagues. 6/20 reached the major leagues but had almost no impact. Of the remaining six, only two have been all stars: Chris Sale (obviously a superstar pitcher when he was healthy) and Aaron Hill (good player who was selected to one all star game). Trea Turner has never been selected as an all star but is a very good player. The others are Kotchman, Greene and Nimmo, all useful to some degree.

Manny Ramirez was the 13th overall pick in 1991 and there have been other highly productive players chosen in that spot through the years, but for the most part if that pick becomes a major league regular it's a very good outcome. The expected value of draft picks drops sharply after the top of the draft, even in the first round. So if Bailey becomes even an average major league catcher that is a brobdingnagian win, he doesn't need to become an all star or even above average to justify his selection, and if he falls short of that it would not be surprising from a statistical standpoint.

lex24 - lex24 - 06-15-2021

(06-14-2021, 01:44 PM)DC 86 Wrote:
(06-13-2021, 10:05 PM)Mick Wrote: Hope to see him in the bigs in 2023 and the all star team by 2025.

I would like that too, but notwithstanding my assertion that it's premature to draw any conclusions from 30 minor league games, Bailey becoming an all star would greatly exceed expectations.

These are the thirteenth overall picks from twenty drafts (1996-2015; it's too early to assess the last five years' selections): Rob Stratton, Kyle Peterson (Stanford ace), J.M. Gold, Mike Paradis, Shaun Boyd, Casey Kotchman, Khalil Greene, Aaron Hill, Bill Bray, Brandon Snyder, Tyler Colvin, Beau Mills, Brett Wallace, Grant Green, Chris Sale, Brandon Nimmo, Courtney Hawkins, Hunter Renfroe, Trea Turner and Garrett Whitley. Sobering.

7/20 never reached the major leagues. 6/20 reached the major leagues but had almost no impact. Of the remaining six, only two have been all stars: Chris Sale (obviously a superstar pitcher when he was healthy) and Aaron Hill (good player who was selected to one all star game). Trea Turner has never been selected as an all star but is a very good player. The others are Kotchman, Greene and Nimmo, all useful to some degree.

Manny Ramirez was the 13th overall pick in 1991 and there have been other highly productive players chosen in that spot through the years, but for the most part if that pick becomes a major league regular it's a very good outcome. The expected value of draft picks drops sharply after the top of the draft, even in the first round. So if Bailey becomes even an average major league catcher that is a of immense proportions win, he doesn't need to become an all star or even above average to justify his selection, and if he falls short of that it would not be surprising from a statistical standpoint.

Interesting, thanks. Generally what this shows is how difficult it is to make the major leagues. And how difficult it is to determine who will eventually become a major league level player. It would be interesting to look at all star teams and list when each was drafted.

RE: lex24 - UltimateCard - 06-15-2021

(06-15-2021, 08:02 AM)lex24 Wrote: Interesting, thanks. Generally what this shows is how difficult it is to make the major leagues. And how difficult it is to determine who will eventually become a major league level player.

Stanford baseball camp director and assistant coach Dean Stotz used to illustrate the odds in this way - on the first evening, all 2,000 or so campers (plus many parents) would be in the stands of Sunken Diamond for an orientation. He'd ask the 20 campers in the first row to join him atop the dugout to represent all the high school players in the country. He'd then ask all but 2 to return to their seats - those 2 representing those who make college varsity. Then he'd ask one to take off a shoe, which is equivalent to MLB draftees. Finally, he'd ask for a shoelace - that's how many get to play in at least one MLB game. Puts things in perspective in a hurry for all those with dreams of playing in the big leagues... (not to leave everyone crestfallen, Stotz would then go on to talk about the things that players can control even if they can't control their destiny: effort and attitude).

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 06-15-2021

Lex, at my age I have zero exit velocity.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - pefloresjr - 06-15-2021

(06-15-2021, 03:14 PM)Phogge Wrote: Lex, at my age I have zero exit velocity.

Not to mention a poor launch angle.

Cheers,
Pete F.

lex24 - lex24 - 06-15-2021

(06-15-2021, 03:14 PM)Phogge Wrote: Lex, at my age I have zero exit velocity.

But good bat control…..

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 06-16-2021

Yaz had a nice launch angle.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BobK - 06-16-2021

Third time two splash hits for the Giants in the same game. Other two Bonds with both HRs
Wow

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 06-16-2021

Bonds was never a Giant.

Paraphrasing Bobby Murcer in a 1980’s book.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BobK - 06-16-2021

Ok I guess

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Mick - 06-16-2021

(06-16-2021, 08:14 AM)Phogge Wrote: Bonds was never a Giant.

Paraphrasing Bobby Murcer in a 1980’s book.

SF came to the conclusion that Bonds would never be the next Mays, and the Yanks came to the conclusion that Murcer would never be the next mantle. Still, Bonds was better than Murcer. I think he was a Giant. Both were 29 year old all stars for their respective teams in the year after the trade.

Giants are 10th in OPS, 9th in runs scored, and 3rd in HRs in MLB. They have risen to 6th in ERA, 3rd in WHIP and 1st in NL in fielding at .988 with just 28 errors. They're on a run rate to win 102 games...

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BobK - 06-16-2021

Mercer was a Giant in body only. Constant complaints about playing in SF. He and his big head wanted the NY spotlight.
His year we went to 30 some games and I boo'd his every AB.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - JeebsOak - 06-16-2021

Bonds was never a Giant?

What?

The same guy that literally built the ballpark and the *best* baseball player of all time, from the bay area, with his god father and father closely connected isn't a San Francisco Giant?

Come on now.

RE: [merged] Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 06-16-2021

You never had to work with him Pal.

Murcer's quote comes from a book. His only answer before he hung up on the writer, "I never was a Giant." Bonds was an individual who only cared about himself. In his first spring training at the little minor league facility on Carl Hayden Blvd he bullied still photographers and told me to, and I quote, "Get your f****** camera out of my face." I was about 18 feet away doing my job. Robbie Thompson came up to me and said, and I quote, "He's a p**** but he can hit." Absolutely hated in the clubhouse by a couple of players I know. So to me he never was a Giant. May he never get into the Hall.

lex24 - lex24 - 06-16-2021

(06-16-2021, 03:03 PM)JeebsOak Wrote: Bonds was never a Giant?

What?

The same guy that literally built the ballpark and the *best* baseball player of all time, from the bay area, with his god father and father closely connected isn't a San Francisco Giant?

Come on now.

I didn’t know Bonds was in construction. And Mays was better than Bonds.

(06-16-2021, 10:24 AM)BobK Wrote: Mercer was a Giant in body only. Constant complaints about playing in SF. He and his big head wanted the NY spotlight.
His year we went to 30 some games and I boo'd his every AB.

Plus Bobby Bonds was such a great player. I loved watching him. Maybe had he not been traded things would have been different for him.