Outside Topic SF Giants 2024 - Printable Version
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RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-11-2024
(02-10-2024, 10:13 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:(02-10-2024, 09:34 AM)Mick Wrote: Basically agree. Rather than Tim Anderson, how about Kike Hernandez? He's super utility, 32 years old, hit .262/.308/.423/.731 for the Dodgers when he left Boston. Has some pop, hits for average, mature. Played 7 positions for the Dodgers last year.
I don't follow hot stove stuff all that closely, but isn't he exactly the type of player Farhan gets crucified for bringing in? Okay player, versatile, a retread. . . .
Oh, for sure. That's why I think he'll do it... ;)
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-11-2024
Trevor Bauer was paid $45 million in 2022. Now he's offering himself up for the minimum, $740k annually pluc incentives. 7-8 teams are communication with his agent, no team has signed him yet. He served a 194 DV suspension, and is eligible to return, per MLB.
Trevor Bauer willing to take MLB’s lowest salary to find new suitor
There's your next starter, Farhan...
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 02-12-2024
(02-11-2024, 04:09 PM)Mick Wrote: Trevor Bauer was paid $45 million in 2022. Now he's offering himself up for the minimum, $740k annually pluc incentives. 7-8 teams are communication with his agent, no team has signed him yet. He served a 194 DV suspension, and is eligible to return, per MLB.
Trevor Bauer willing to take MLB’s lowest salary to find new suitor
There's your next starter, Farhan...
Not gonna happen as I think you know.
Pitchers and catchers report Feb 15. The remaining 4 Boras FAs should fall quickly after the 14th. When teams can move players to the 60 day IL and open up 40 man roster spots.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 02-12-2024
(02-12-2024, 07:59 AM)lex24 Wrote:(02-11-2024, 04:09 PM)Mick Wrote: Trevor Bauer was paid $45 million in 2022. Now he's offering himself up for the minimum, $740k annually pluc incentives. 7-8 teams are communication with his agent, no team has signed him yet. He served a 194 DV suspension, and is eligible to return, per MLB.
Trevor Bauer willing to take MLB’s lowest salary to find new suitor
There's your next starter, Farhan...
Not gonna happen as I think you know.
Pitchers and catchers report Feb 15. The remaining 4 Boras FAs should fall quickly after the 14th. When teams can move players to the 60 day IL and open up 40 man roster spots.
It was such a crazy idea, I figured Mick was being facetious.
By this time next week, Montgomery and Chapman will be wearing Orange and Black. (I hope)
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 02-12-2024
Soler signed to a three year deal. DH only, I hope…..
Update: The deal is expected to be in the $40-$45 million range.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 02-13-2024
(02-12-2024, 11:40 PM)Giants Wrote: Soler signed to a three year deal. DH only, I hope…..
Update: The deal is expected to be in the $40-$45 million range.
He will play some LF. Very badly. It’s the Giants Way under Zaidi. Anyone can play LF. Ask Yearmin Mercedes.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-13-2024
(02-12-2024, 11:40 PM)Giants Wrote: Soler signed to a three year deal. DH only, I hope…..
Update: The deal is expected to be in the $40-$45 million range.
Really great move, I think. All-Star last year, 36 HRs, but also hit 24 doubles, .250/.341/.512/.853, comfortable as DH, and we have him for ages 32-34. He hits well at Oracle (1.128 OPS last year/.929 career) and he hits very well at our division opponents' parks last year; including Colorado (1.394 OPS), Arizona (1.326) and Dodger Stadium (1.203). 2.3 oWAR, -1.6 dWAR, so I'm guessing he won't be in the field much.
Guaranteed $42 million per Mike Rodriguez. All three seasons guaranteed, third season was the sticking point. Pending a physical.
Other idiosyncracies...
* usually gets off to a slow start and improves throughout the year, but last year he was pretty consistent from the jump, had a hot May and a hot August.
* Annihilates lefties, does well against righties. This was a real problem for the Giants last year.
* Hits better on the road than at home (.819 to .887).
* Actually hits slightly better when he's in the field vs. DH.
* Typically batted second last year for the Marlins, will bat fourth (I suspect) for the Giants.
* Hits best when the game is close, loses focus a bit when far ahead or far behind.
* Crushes power pitchers.
* Hit better against SF's pitching last year than any team but the White Sox.
* Also hit well against Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Nationals, Reds, Astros, Rockies, Phillies, Cardinals and Brewers. Had a difficult time hitting AL pitchers, for whatever reason.
* Hits better on natural turf and in the open (versus domes).
* Night or day, same stats.
* 81st percentile in average exit velocity, hard hit rate, barrel rate.
* Has averaged 32 HRs per 162 games played over his career.
* Streaky hitter like Brandon Belt
* 2021 World Series MVP. He steps it up in the postseason, BTW, and did for Atlanta and Chicago. 1.021 career OPS in postseason.
* Flores and JD Davis will likely lose playing time against RHPs.
* Separately, the new backup catcher Tom Murphy is similar to Soler in that he crushes lefties (career 126 wRC+).
I think he's tailor-made for Oracle. This is a signing I'm excited about.
Current projected total tax allocations are $183 mms. Adding Soler brings them to $197 mms. Tax Threshold is $237 mms., so the Giants are still $40 mms. under luxury tax. That's enough to get 2-3 more studs, if they so choose, and I hope within the next 48 hours that will happen. I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants pick up Chapman and trade JD Davis. Chapman had his fourth Gold Glove last year, and the SF staff is filled with ground ball pitchers. And the Cubs haven't signed Bellinger yet.
And yes, I was being facetious about Trevor Bauer.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - BobK - 02-13-2024
I like this 36HRs what’s not to like.
Where does Flores play? If not DH? He’s been our clutch hitter
Yes sure hope for Chapman
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 02-13-2024
(02-13-2024, 10:27 AM)BobK Wrote: I like this 36HRs what’s not to like.
Where does Flores play? If not DH? He’s been our clutch hitter
Yes sure hope for Chapman
What’s not to like:
Melvin might not be able to resist the temptation to play him in the field. I think the fabled nickname, Dr. Strangeglove, is quite applicable.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-13-2024
(02-13-2024, 10:53 AM)Giants Wrote:(02-13-2024, 10:27 AM)BobK Wrote: I like this 36HRs what’s not to like.
Where does Flores play? If not DH? He’s been our clutch hitter
Yes sure hope for Chapman
What’s not to like:
Melvin might not be able to resist the temptation to play him in the field. I think the fabled nickname, Dr. Strangeglove, is quite applicable.
Flores needs to stick to 1B, fielding-wise. Very positive rTot at 1B, very negative rTot at 2B, 3B and SS. Has terrible range at all three positions, average range at 1B. Makes LaMonte Wade the odd man out. Wade is an excellent first baseman, great range, plays LF pretty well and CF & RF poorly. Unfortunately Flores and Wade were #1 and #2 in OPS last year, the Giants' best and second best hitters. Wade or Flores might get traded.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - BobK - 02-13-2024
Trade Wade and or Flores would be dumb
Sure hope not. Need players who can hit and get on base
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 02-13-2024
(02-13-2024, 11:58 AM)Mick Wrote:(02-13-2024, 10:53 AM)Giants Wrote:(02-13-2024, 10:27 AM)BobK Wrote: I like this 36HRs what’s not to like.
Where does Flores play? If not DH? He’s been our clutch hitter
Yes sure hope for Chapman
What’s not to like:
Melvin might not be able to resist the temptation to play him in the field. I think the fabled nickname, Dr. Strangeglove, is quite applicable.
Flores needs to stick to 1B, fielding-wise. Very positive rTot at 1B, very negative rTot at 2B, 3B and SS. Has terrible range at all three positions, average range at 1B. Makes LaMonte Wade the odd man out. Wade is an excellent first baseman, great range, plays LF pretty well and CF & RF poorly. Unfortunately Flores and Wade were #1 and #2 in OPS last year, the Giants' best and second best hitters. Wade or Flores might get traded.
Wade is a liability v. LHP. Put him on the bench against lefties and use him as a late game PH v. righthanders.
Opening Day (v. RHP)
RF Yaz
CF Lee
LF Conforto
3B Chapman
SS Luciano
2B Estrada
1B Wade
C Bailey
DH Soler
P Webb
Against a LHP, substitute Slater for Yaz and Flores for Wade.
Note: the above does not reflect the batting order.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 02-14-2024
(02-13-2024, 10:53 AM)Giants Wrote:(02-13-2024, 10:27 AM)BobK Wrote: I like this 36HRs what’s not to like.
Where does Flores play? If not DH? He’s been our clutch hitter
Yes sure hope for Chapman
What’s not to like:
Melvin might not be able to resist the temptation to play him in the field. I think the fabled nickname, Dr. Strangeglove, is quite applicable.
The great Dick Stuart.
Soler will get 20- 30 games in LF. Slater is their only RH hitting OF on what would be current roster. Absent another move or injury, this means Matos starts season in Sac.
Not crazy about move as a one off. But if it’s coupled with picking up either Chapman or Bellinger, great. If it’s Chapman, Davis gets traded. If Bellinger, Conforto or Wade. If neither:
C: Bailey Murphy
OF. Yaz Slater Lee Conforto and occasionally Soler
Inf. Wade Flores Estrada Luciano Davis (Lopez/Schmitt/Fitzgerald/Wisely)
SP. Webb Harrison Hicks Winn Beck
RP. Tyler, Taylor, Walker, Hjelle Jackson Doval (Miller, Small, Garrett, , Rodriguez)
Still slow. Still below average defensively. Still counting heavily on Luciano. Giants will need to hit a lot of HRs. At least the line shifts should be gone…..
If pitching holds up until Cobb and Ray are back and assuming Cobb and Ray are able to be maybe 80%, they could challenge for WC. If pitching falters - it will not be pretty.
Giants are very high on their young pitchers. Besides those mentioned there is Black, Whisenhunt, Birdsong, Roupp, Crawford. All except probably Crawford could make the jump at some point, as Giants will use 25 to 30 pitchers. Issue will be getting them to the 40.
Tomorrow it begins!
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-14-2024
Can't wait! Couple of thoughts:
1. I hope it's Chapman versus Bellinger. Giants need a GG third baseman more than they need a really good outfielder. And Chapman hits better at Oracle than Bellinger does (.264 vs. .247 BA and .813 vs. .733 OPS). Bellinger is ordinary at Oracle.
2. I worry about Luciano. He won't turn 22 for six more months. He did very poorly in the Dominican winter league (.170/.339/.255/.594), although he boosted his walks considerably. Looks like some coach told him to be more selective. The Giants need a backup shortstop who can step in if necessary, though Luciano fields the position well, leading me to...
3. Fielding. My great concern. This will be an average hitting team (even with Chapman, Soler, Murphy and Lee) unless everyone breaks out and Pat Burrell works miracles. The pitching will be great, a ground ball bonanza. The good news: Bailey, Yaz, Slater, Schmitt, Luciano are all good fielders, but they're the only fielders with positive rTot (aside from 1/2 dozen young players who won't make the roster)...and while Bailey had positive rTot, he still led the league in passed balls and errors, playing only 82 games at catcher -- but he led the league in # caught stealing, was 4th in caught stealing% and third in putouts, so...good fielding catcher. Meckler, Pederson, Villar, Crawford, Sabol, Matos, Conforto were all disasters, athough Conforto is a decent left fielder and a horrendous right fielder. Keep him in LF, he's ok. Davis, Bart, and Wade were slightly below average. Wade and Davis started out strong, but melted down as the year went on. And Doval and Winn are not great at fielding, but not much we can do about that.
It looks like we're getting most of the bad fielders off the field and can "hide" the poor fielders. If the team can get to average...maybe we have something.
Incidentally...the Giants were 32-21 in one-run games last season. Bob Melvin's Padres were 34-17 in one-run games last season.
Bottom line for me...if we get Chapman and a backup shortstop, we should be very strong. I don't think we need more pitching. We have lots of cap space. Maybe trade for Willy Adames, a very strong fielder with power (but not average) and he'll be 28 this season.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 02-14-2024
An Adames trade makes too much sense. Therefore, it is outside Zaidi’s comfort zone.
Maybe the next GM will have the “aggressive gene” that Zaidi lacks.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-14-2024
(02-14-2024, 11:16 AM)Giants Wrote: An Adames trade makes too much sense. Therefore, it is outside Zaidi’s comfort zone.
Maybe the next GM will have the “aggressive gene” that Zaidi lacks.
The San Diego media has been reporting that there's been a recent upsurge in interest in Ha-Seong Kim, their $7 mms. Gold Glove second baseman (and former KBO teammate of new Giant Lee) in the last year of his contract. Strong hitter, finished 14th in MVP voting, sturdy (played 152 games) and in contract year. Hopefully Farhan is responsible for the recent interest. As you pointed out, would make too much sense. Would like to get both Adames and Kim. Clear out the low minors of pitching and hitting for trade bait and throw in Conforto, Villar and ... ?
BTW, the A's have signed Ross Stripling, Alex Wood and Scott Alexander (as of today)
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Giants - 02-14-2024
(02-14-2024, 11:56 AM)Mick Wrote:(02-14-2024, 11:16 AM)Giants Wrote: An Adames trade makes too much sense. Therefore, it is outside Zaidi’s comfort zone.
Maybe the next GM will have the “aggressive gene” that Zaidi lacks.
The San Diego media has been reporting that there's been a recent upsurge in interest in Ha-Seong Kim, their $7 mms. Gold Glove second baseman (and former KBO teammate of new Giant Lee) in the last year of his contract. Strong hitter, finished 14th in MVP voting, sturdy (played 152 games) and in contract year. Hopefully Farhan is responsible for the recent interest. As you pointed out, would make too much sense. Would like to get both Adames and Kim. Clear out the low minors of pitching and hitting for trade bait and throw in Conforto, Villar and ... ?
BTW, the A's have signed Ross Stripling, Alex Wood and Scott Alexander (as of today)
Although it would be risky due to his contract situation, I’d trade for Kim in a heartbeat. As the saying goes…. no risk, no reward.
Note: A couple months ago, I was concerned about cutting a deal for Kim knowing he would be a free agent after the season. I now believe the only way SF is going to sign any name free agents is to get them on board via a trade and then sign them to an extension (the Braves have been very successful using this approach).
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 02-15-2024
(02-14-2024, 03:02 PM)Giants Wrote:(02-14-2024, 11:56 AM)Mick Wrote:(02-14-2024, 11:16 AM)Giants Wrote: An Adames trade makes too much sense. Therefore, it is outside Zaidi’s comfort zone.
Maybe the next GM will have the “aggressive gene” that Zaidi lacks.
The San Diego media has been reporting that there's been a recent upsurge in interest in Ha-Seong Kim, their $7 mms. Gold Glove second baseman (and former KBO teammate of new Giant Lee) in the last year of his contract. Strong hitter, finished 14th in MVP voting, sturdy (played 152 games) and in contract year. Hopefully Farhan is responsible for the recent interest. As you pointed out, would make too much sense. Would like to get both Adames and Kim. Clear out the low minors of pitching and hitting for trade bait and throw in Conforto, Villar and ... ?
BTW, the A's have signed Ross Stripling, Alex Wood and Scott Alexander (as of today)
Although it would be risky due to his contract situation, I’d trade for Kim in a heartbeat. As the saying goes…. no risk, no reward.
Note: A couple months ago, I was concerned about cutting a deal for Kim knowing he would be a free agent after the season. I now believe the only way SF is going to sign any name free agents is to get them on board via a trade and then sign them to an extension (the Braves have been very successful using this approach).
Kim and Lee are supposedly close friends. That would help sign him, I suspect. But would SD trade him in division? And do Giants want to trade some of their young pitching in division?
(02-14-2024, 09:22 AM)Mick Wrote: Can't wait! Couple of thoughts:
1. I hope it's Chapman versus Bellinger. Giants need a GG third baseman more than they need a really good outfielder. And Chapman hits better at Oracle than Bellinger does (.264 vs. .247 BA and .813 vs. .733 OPS). Bellinger is ordinary at Oracle.
2. I worry about Luciano. He won't turn 22 for six more months. He did very poorly in the Dominican winter league (.170/.339/.255/.594), although he boosted his walks considerably. Looks like some coach told him to be more selective. The Giants need a backup shortstop who can step in if necessary, though Luciano fields the position well, leading me to...
3. Fielding. My great concern. This will be an average hitting team (even with Chapman, Soler, Murphy and Lee) unless everyone breaks out and Pat Burrell works miracles. The pitching will be great, a ground ball bonanza. The good news: Bailey, Yaz, Slater, Schmitt, Luciano are all good fielders, but they're the only fielders with positive rTot (aside from 1/2 dozen young players who won't make the roster)...and while Bailey had positive rTot, he still led the league in passed balls and errors, playing only 82 games at catcher -- but he led the league in # caught stealing, was 4th in caught stealing% and third in putouts, so...good fielding catcher. Meckler, Pederson, Villar, Crawford, Sabol, Matos, Conforto were all disasters, athough Conforto is a decent left fielder and a horrendous right fielder. Keep him in LF, he's ok. Davis, Bart, and Wade were slightly below average. Wade and Davis started out strong, but melted down as the year went on. And Doval and Winn are not great at fielding, but not much we can do about that.
It looks like we're getting most of the bad fielders off the field and can "hide" the poor fielders. If the team can get to average...maybe we have something.
Incidentally...the Giants were 32-21 in one-run games last season. Bob Melvin's Padres were 34-17 in one-run games last season.
Bottom line for me...if we get Chapman and a backup shortstop, we should be very strong. I don't think we need more pitching. We have lots of cap space. Maybe trade for Willy Adames, a very strong fielder with power (but not average) and he'll be 28 this season.
I think you inverted the Pads 1 run record. But both it and the Giants ‘23 1 run records are irrelevant. Those don’t have any predictive value.
Defense will be an issue. Chapman would help. Considerably. Luciano may or may not be a ML level SS defensively. Most scouts etc believe he’s not. What he did in 12 games last year is way too SSS. as of right now, it’s questionable of Schmitt will even be on the roster.
Bailey is plus defensively. Yaz is plus defensively as long as he’s in right field. Slater is decent defensively when he can actually play. We don’t know much about Lee defensively in centerfield. In fact, the comments have been all over the board. Early on it was he is a plus centerfielder and then as it got closer to the signing day I started seeing comments questioning his defensive acumen. We’ll see. I have to think it’s an improvement over last year. Even if he’s average.
Conforto in left will be average at best. When they put Soler out there, they probably will for 20 or 30 games or so, just hope nobody hits the ball there. He’s awful
Adames would be a nice add. But he’s a ‘25 FA. How much young pitching are you willing to part with? Cause that, I suspect, would be part of the cost. Same, btw, for Kim.
Tim Anderson is an interesting possibility. He was awful last year. One of the worst players in baseball. But he has been a premium level shortstop in the past. And I believe he was very unhappy last year. So perhaps a change of scenery. One of those classic two year with an option contracts, that incentives for him to try putting a year together to hit the market. Frankly, I hate those contracts, but maybe in this case it makes sense.
Team is still slow. They’re gonna need a lot of home runs. Because they’ll be station station again for the most part
Pitching – massive question mark. If things go right, this could be a very good young staff. But you’re talking about one established starter and four questions. . If things go south, which is not an impossibility, this is going to be a very long year.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - Mick - 02-15-2024
You're right, I quoted the 2022 figure. In 2023, the Padres were 10-28 in one-run games or games that went to extra innings, the worst record since 1935. I'm not sure I'd say that it's irrelevant. I think it speaks to character and stamina and management.
I suspect Chapman and the Giants are far apart. When I read about Chapman's expected deals ($17 mms. to $25 mms. per season), they just don't make any sense. Right now, only two teams are really interested in Chapman. 40 man rosters are open, I suspect a deal will get done within the next week or two. I'd still prefer him over JD Davis, but not at a ridiculous rate.
Bailey does some amazing things defensively (particularly with his arm), and yet...leading the league in both errors by a catcher and passed balls while catching just half the games is...disconcerting.
I think pitching is always a question mark, even if you have Koufax and Drysdale. Injuries, inconsistency, fielding and luck. And our fielding is not great and speed-wise, we don't have Maury Wills. Or even Bump Wills.
Lots of questions. If we get Chapman, a backup SS (who will likely play a lot), and one more FA, I'd feel better.
RE: SF Giants 2024 - lex24 - 02-15-2024
(02-15-2024, 09:15 AM)Mick Wrote: You're right, I quoted the 2022 figure. In 2023, the Padres were 10-28 in one-run games or games that went to extra innings, the worst record since 1935. I'm not sure I'd say that it's irrelevant. I think it speaks to character and stamina and management.
I suspect Chapman and the Giants are far apart. When I read about Chapman's expected deals ($17 mms. to $25 mms. per season), they just don't make any sense. Right now, only two teams are really interested in Chapman. 40 man rosters are open, I suspect a deal will get done within the next week or two. I'd still prefer him over JD Davis, but not at a ridiculous rate.
Bailey does some amazing things defensively (particularly with his arm), and yet...leading the league in both errors by a catcher and passed balls while catching just half the games is...disconcerting.
I think pitching is always a question mark, even if you have Koufax and Drysdale. Injuries, inconsistency, fielding and luck. And our fielding is not great and speed-wise, we don't have Maury Wills. Or even Bump Wills.
Lots of questions. If we get Chapman, a backup SS (who will likely play a lot), and one more FA, I'd feel better.
22 - 34-17 in one run games.
23 - 10-28 in one run games.
Same manager. Perfect illustration of my point - that the “one run” record in a particular season is largely irrelevant to what happens the next season.