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Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - washingtonismoney - 10-22-2017

FWIW, 538's model projects Stanford with a two-in-three chance of making the playoff...if the team wins out.

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself -- Win out for Fiesta Bowl - hayaka - 10-22-2017

(10-22-2017, 12:51 PM)ADPATERSON link Wrote:At 5-2 we get @ORST, then toughest game of year @WAST, host WASH for what could decide North if we go in at 7-2. We take down the 59ers at home, and then wrap up on National TV with NDAM. Looks like we earn Fiesta Bowl if Pac12 champ, and beat NDAM. Runner up perhaps Alamo Bowl. But otherwise we need to be at 9-3 to land in Holiday Bowl against maybe Harbaugh and MICH.  I refuse to talk of Foster Frozen Chicken Bowl, a demotion.  Alums largely refuse to attend it.  The stdents hate that bowl -- the dorms are closed that week !

We did not play this weekend, so we did not look as bad as U$C at South Bend, and ESPN bumped us up to #1 in Pac12. Both WA schools got thrashed last weekend, hence our move up.  Bryce "the pocket rocket" Love is a major reason, as other Stiffarm trophy hopefuls have stumbled -- Darnold for SC @NDAM, and Baker Mayfield for OKLA last weekend.  Right now it looks like Saquan vs Bryce.
http://www.espn.com/blog/pac12
No two loss team will make Playoff, period.
 

I'm stumped as to what the AM in "NDAM" stands for?  Something to do with Manti Teo?

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - ADPATERSON - 10-22-2017

I'm stumped as to what the AM in "NDAM" stands for?  Something to do with Manti Teo?

In my frat group, we tended to use four letter symbols in the sports pools.
I like the more biting "Votre Dame" here... but VDAM would be confusing. 

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself -- Win out for Fiesta Bowl - ADPATERSON - 10-22-2017

(10-22-2017, 12:56 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=ADPATERSON link=topic=17751.msg207418#msg207418 date=1508701889]No two loss team will make Playoff, period.

Do you mean this year, or ever? Because "ever" is obviously wrong, we had 2-loss teams make the BCS when it was only top-2. Double field and it'll happen more often. If you mean this year then you're kind of assuming a lot, it's entirely possible that there are 2-loss winners from the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12, plus 2-loss ND, with no obvious teams sitting out CCGs with only 1 loss. So do they just call the whole thing off?

I really don't understand where this attitude comes from.
[/quote]

Basically, LSU (11-2) in 2007 is the exception for the Champ game / playoffs.
Since at least 2006, at second week of Dec there have been 4 to 8 teams with only one loss or better to choose from for Playoff (or BCS).
Perhaps this year will lead to multiple conf champs with two losses, but usually that just does not happen.
And Power 5 Conf champs should be given preference, because of strength of conference.

From here, likely Final Four
1) BAMA as SEC champ; GEOG as the slim alternative.
2) PNST from B1G, winning out.
3) TCU from Big12, with OKLA as backup bcuz of win over OHST early. 
4) Whoever has one loss or better from CLEM, MIAM, NDAM cuz NDAM plays MIAM.  MIAM likely gets shot at CLEM.
If Pac12 champ is WASH at 12-1, they have a good argument. 
So, I don't see any two loss teams in, and no conf gets two teams, even those hogs in SEC. 

Entering Week 9 there are six unbeaten Power 5 teams, and ten with a lone loss.  I don't see room for two-loss teams in CFP.
Best scenario I see for Stanford is Fiesta Bowl as Pac12 Champ vs OKLA or B1G runner up -- as U$C and SDST have weakened.


Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - Spiny_Norman - 10-22-2017

A lot of games still to be played among the top teams especially in the Big 10, Big 12 and ACC.  Maybe they end up cannibalizing themselves too. Why don't we pick up this conversation again in a month when we know more.

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself - Goose - 10-22-2017

(10-22-2017, 08:04 PM)Spiny_Norman link Wrote:A lot of games still to be played among the top teams especially in the Big 10, Big 12 and ACC.  Maybe they end up cannibalizing themselves too. Why don't we pick up this conversation again in a month when we know more.
Good plan! Too many moving parts right now.

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself -- Win out for Fiesta Bowl - stupac2 - 10-22-2017

(10-22-2017, 07:14 PM)ADPATERSON link Wrote:[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=17751.msg207420#msg207420 date=1508702214]
[quote author=ADPATERSON link=topic=17751.msg207418#msg207418 date=1508701889]No two loss team will make Playoff, period.

Do you mean this year, or ever? Because "ever" is obviously wrong, we had 2-loss teams make the BCS when it was only top-2. Double field and it'll happen more often. If you mean this year then you're kind of assuming a lot, it's entirely possible that there are 2-loss winners from the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12, plus 2-loss ND, with no obvious teams sitting out CCGs with only 1 loss. So do they just call the whole thing off?

I really don't understand where this attitude comes from.
[/quote]

Basically, LSU (11-2) in 2007 is the exception for the Champ game / playoffs.
Since at least 2006, at second week of Dec there have been 4 to 8 teams with only one loss or better to choose from for Playoff (or BCS).
Perhaps this year will lead to multiple conf champs with two losses, but usually that just does not happen.
And Power 5 Conf champs should be given preference, because of strength of conference.

From here, likely Final Four
1) BAMA as SEC champ; GEOG as the slim alternative.
2) PNST from B1G, winning out.
3) TCU from Big12, with OKLA as backup bcuz of win over OHST early. 
4) Whoever has one loss or better from CLEM, MIAM, NDAM cuz NDAM plays MIAM.  MIAM likely gets shot at CLEM.
If Pac12 champ is WASH at 12-1, they have a good argument. 
So, I don't see any two loss teams in, and no conf gets two teams, even those hogs in SEC. 

Entering Week 9 there are six unbeaten Power 5 teams, and ten with a lone loss.  I don't see room for two-loss teams in CFP.
Best scenario I see for Stanford is Fiesta Bowl as Pac12 Champ vs OKLA or B1G runner up -- as U$C and SDST have weakened.
[/quote]

"This thing has only happened once therefore will never happen again."

Got it.

Re: The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself -- Win out for Fiesta Bowl - CTcard - 10-22-2017

(10-22-2017, 07:14 PM)ADPATERSON link Wrote:Since at least 2006, at second week of Dec there have been 4 to 8 teams with only one loss to choose from for Playoff (or BCS).

Here is a quick rundown of presumed top 4 (BCS final standings)* over the final dozen years of the BCS championship game.

[* for years when #3 or 4 were either from the equivalent of today's Group of 5 conferences or where there was a second team from a particular conference, I included as an OR the next highest rated team that didn't fall into those categories. This is because of the widely held belief that when actual slots for a cfp are considered, both of those things would require extraordinary circumstances which would not be present if those teams came in at #3 or #4. For purposes of counting 2 loss teams, that makes a difference three times (once only because both happened).]

2002: Miami 12-0, tOSU 13-0, UGa 12-1, u$C 10-2
2003: Oklahoma 12-1, LSU 12-1, $C 11-1, Mich 10-2
2004: $C 12-0, Oklahoma 12-0, Auburn 12-0, Texas 10-1
2005: $C 12-0, Texas 12-0, PSU 10-1, tOSU 9-2 OR und 9-2
2006: tOSU 12-0, FLorida 11-1, Michigan 11-1, LSU 10-2 OR $C 10-2
2007: tOSU 11-1, LSU 11-2, Va Tech 11-2, Oklahoma 11-2
2008: Oklahoma 12-1, Fla 12-1, Texas 11-1, Bama 12-1 OR $C 11-1
2009: Bama 13-0, Texas 13-0, Cincinnati 12-0, TCU 12-0 OR Oregon 10-2
2010: Auburn 13-0, Oregon 12-0, TCU 12-0, Stanford 11-1 OR Wisconsin 11-1, Oklahoma 11-2
2011: LSU 13-0, Bama 11-1, Ok State 11-1, Stanford 11-1
2012: und 12-0, Bama 12-1, Florida 11-1, Oregon 11-1 OR Kans St 11-1
2013: FSU 13-0, Auburn 12-1, Bama 11-1, MSU 12-1 OR Stanford 11-2

So, over those final 12 years of the BCS, it appears a two loss team would have made a four team playoff 5 to 8 times depending upon your view of the ORs I added.
That's 42% to 67% of the time.