WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - Printable Version

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Re: WBB: Stanford @ Baylor Sunday 11am - crackpot - 12-03-2017

The lack of rebounding was painful to watch.

What was killing me at the end is that Baylor seemed so much more worn out in the 4th quarter. Had this game gotten off to a better start, could've left Waco with at least something worthwhile.

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - Viking_Guy - 12-03-2017

I hate to say it this baldly, but I don't think Sniezek can be the starter going forward.  Especially not if we need Johnson for rebounding and defense.  That's just too many touches on the floor without a threat that the defense must honor.

That's the issue with playing against a zone, for me - it's NOT ball movement that gets a zone out of position - it's the FEAR of ball movement, the fear of giving up an open shot or driving lane, that leads an off-ball player to leave their zone and rotate to help.  If (1) the primary ball handler inspires not the least hesitancy in dropping off the ball and helping against Smith inside or clogging up the passing lane, and/or (2) Johnson is only a "threat" within 2 feet of the basket, there is no reason for a defender to ever leave her zone.

I watched today as Johnson faced up the ball at the elbow, and her defender dropped 8 feet off her into the lane, giving her a simple 12 foot jump shot, and she pulled it down and passed to a well-covered perimeter player.  You have to either drive or shoot there.

The other big issue is that our lack of a strong post presence is killing us.  All of our recruits are good, but none of them is particularly powerful.  They were just getting shoved around by Baylor's posts today.  Part of that was the continuing saga of Johnson and Smith committing silly fouls early, but the offensive rebounding is both a direct and indirect result.

I think this year we may just have to play the kids.  I do love that Coffee got an extended run today; an outside threat 5 may open things up a bit for Smith, as long as the defenders have to worry about other outside shooters and drivers as well.

VG

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - Jskass - 12-03-2017

Completely agree Viking -- was just writing that it's time for Kiana to start when your post popped up. I also think Kaylee is going to be better late in games to protect leads with defensive and rebounding play but needs to be done starting. Invariably with Marta and Kaylee starting, there is SO much pressure on Smith and McPhee/Carrington that you can argue that opponents can play 5 on 3. No wonder we always have slowwwwwwww starts and badddddd first halves.

Williams-Romano-McPhee/Carrington (and perhaps when both healthy one of them replaces Romano)-Smith-Dodson?

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - 81alum - 12-03-2017

Write up done at the top.

I believe that Williams will be our main point guard, whether starting or not, for most of the season.  Sniezek lost most of her minutes last year to Roberson, and she is already losing most of her minutes lately to Williams.  Williams is almost too offensive but she does make defenses respect her.

Dodson will develop into a go-to post.  I'm not sure if this will happen this season or not, though--she has better physical skills than any other post we have other than possibly Smith, but her progress may be slower than we impatient fans would like to see.  It seems that posts take longer to develop--Smith and both Ogwumikes, not to mention McCall, did not really show their full talent until their sophomore or even junior years.  So Coffee now has my attention and intrigues me.  She is clearly a better offensive threat than Johnson, but her poor rebounding compared with Johnson will probably keep her out.

I am thinking of this lineup as possibly our best for start of Pac12.  Can Carrington defend a smaller shooting guard?
1 Williams
2 Carrington
3 McPhee
4 Smith
5 Dodson/Johnson

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - 81alum - 12-03-2017

(12-03-2017, 02:27 PM)Viking_Guy link Wrote:I hate to say it this baldly, but I don't think Sniezek can be the starter going forward.  Especially not if we need Johnson for rebounding and defense.  That's just too many touches on the floor without a threat that the defense must honor.

VG

Final box score just out.  Williams had 34 minutes and Sniezek 6.  I think Tara knows what you know. 

For the season: 
Williams 11 assists to 3 turnovers. 
Sniezek 38 assists to 22 turnovers. 
Sniezek 41 points in 227 minutes shooting 30%, 29% from three.
Williams 52 points in 159 minutes, shooting 28%, 34% from three.

Williams has the fewest turnovers of anyone with a significant number of minutes.  Romano and Jerome have a similar number of minutes and more than twice the turnovers,

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - Viking_Guy - 12-03-2017

Yep, but those opening minutes were pretty critical.

OT, but the evil blue empire is in a real tussle with dead fake girlfriends. Especially with Auriemma approaching 1k wins, I'd really rather have him win it against a more typical opponent - like Memphis or some other AAC powerhouse😏. Just in honor of the strength of the conferences he's racked up the wins against.

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - 2006alum - 12-03-2017

Didn't watch and just going off box score here. Was Coffee a defensive liability? She had 3 defensive rebounds, a block, and a steal, so she didn't seem awful. I ask simply because a player who goes 4-8 from outside and is also 6'5" is precisely who we need on the court. Zone defenses cannot afford to sag at all on a player with that profile, because she can shoot right over them if they aren't hugging her, and if they are, that creates an opening to pass inside.

Agree with the assessments of Williams and Dodson - frankly, it shows you how much recruiting matters. They're by far our mostly highly rated current recruits, and while they're raw frosh, they are already showing more potential than some of our juniors and seniors.

So: it seems like the takeaways from this game are that we need McPhee back (duh), Coffee needs to get minutes early in the game to help us break down the zone (even if we maybe lose a bit on the defensive glass and risk a few more turnovers), and Williams should also get in ASAP to get our offense going.

Based on this game, I'd be pretty happy with a starting line-up of Williams, Carrington, McPhee, Smith, and Coffee. We'd be turnover prone and weak on o-boards, but honestly, that's been our problem in nearly all of our prior games in the first quarter. How much worse can it get? I'd much rather we establish some rhythm on offense early and then implement some better defensive sets rather than the other way around. We could get away with playing from behind against San Francisco, but tonight shows that that doesn't work against top teams.

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Re: WBB: Stanford @ Baylor Sunday 11am - M T - 12-03-2017

(12-03-2017, 12:39 PM)76lsjumb link Wrote:[quote author=MT link=topic=18257.msg216763#msg216763 date=1512329610]
Johnson's 2nd foul with 2 minutes left in the first quarter -- the girl driving the lane takes her left hand off the ball, sweeps it out to push away Kaylee's arm.  The foul is called on Johnson.  I wish basketball refs would stop and think about what is a foul!

With all due respect, you’re watching what’s going on here and your concern is with the refs... 😲
[/quote]

Yep.  Fouls had a major impact on this game.  Most of them probably were correctly called as we were out-classed.  Fouls shouldn't be called on style points, but should be called by the rules (or change the rules).  We don't play Baylor every game, but we've got refs in every game we play. 

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In the past, I've said something to the effect that Shannon Coffee was never going to be much help to the Cardinal.  I am happy to say she proved me wrong today.  Her inexperience hurt her, but her play (separate from her shooting) was much better today than I recall seeing before.  And, of course, she hit 50% on her 3s.  But, Baylor's big girl still ate us up.
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Wow, of our starters, only 1 played half the game, and that, just barely (Alanna, 24 min).  Those 5 accounted for 34.5% of the playing time.  In that time, they accounted for 9 of our 14 total turnovers.  (After that first quarter, I thought we'd have more than that.)  Marta only played 6 minutes for 2 TO and no shots.  Kaylee fouled out after only 12 minutes (yes, bogus foul calls hurt), but got 10 rebounds in 30% of a full game.  Alanna's time was limited by her foul situation.
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As for shooting, the low FG% was partially due to the high number of 3pt attempts.  If you just look at the 2 point shots, we hit 33%.  That's not very good, but we were up against a taller & bigger team that kept us out of the paint.  We had 11 offensive rebounds which mostly wound up with weak shots following those.
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We had (only) 4 more turnovers than Baylor, and 7 fewer offensive rebounds, resulting in 8 fewer shots and 7 fewer FTAs.  Considering the size of Baylor (6'7", 6'4" vs 6'4", 6'3"), I don't find those stats too unusual.  (We actually had one more block than Baylor!)  We also had 10 more fouls, which hurt us badly..
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I think Tara may keep starting Marta, but yanking her if she doesn't put up some shots early.

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - chimera - 12-03-2017

I confess I did not see the whole game so take what I say with that in mind.  My general thoughts so far about the season are that we have seen bright spots from several players (Carrington has had brobdingnagian games, Smith, Wilson, Williams, now Coffee, and others have had promising moments in several games like Dodson, Romano, Jerome, etc.) but we have not seen the team put that together consistently. 

I agree with the posts above that we need more scoring from Marta if she is going to play a lot.  If we had the sort of team with experienced scorers at multiple positions we might be fine with a pg who does not look to score.  With a young team and no proven scorers aside from McPhee and maybe Smith (but even she is not super experienced) we need our pg to be a scoring threat.  I think Williams looks very composed out there and should only get better. 

I also think they need to rethink how to use Johnson.  She is a superb rebounder and a good defender but she has consistently been in foul trouble this season and has trouble scoring against good posts.  We need her to play but having her start and get into foul trouble is not good.  We need her experience down the stretch of games. 

Coffee looks much more mobile as far as getting up and down the court.  She shoots well and has great size.  She is clearly not experienced, but she was directing traffic out there and seems unafraid to take charge.  Perhaps more minutes for her?  If she can play well against Baylor she should be able to play well against most teams. 

I think our schedule this season has been a poor fit for the team we have.  Too many games against top 10 level teams that we are just not ready to beat yet, not enough against good teams that would be a challenge but a more reasonable one.  If we don't play better by P-12 season and rack up some good wins, there is a chance we do not make the NCAAs this year for the first time in forever.  I have high hopes for our young players, that they will blossom and become much better individually and as a team.  I'm just not sure it will happen this season...

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - 81alum - 12-03-2017

Tara's press conference is up:
https://soundcloud.com/gostanford/baylor-tara-vanderveer-postgame-12317

Said we "stayed with an experienced and well coached team after the first quarter."  "The first quarter was disappointing."  Noted we had no answer for "their big girl."  "We can learn from this and get better."

"We have an extremely young team that is just learning how to play.  This early season has been baptism by fire.  We were beaten by a better team and we need to learn from this, have better shot selection."  "Brown is so big...and we did not defend her the way we had worked on."

As for Johnson and Smith getting into foul trouble.  "That's disappointing.  We have to evaluate our starting lineup, and we need to evaluate people....who's doing what we need them to do, and just figuring out who is going to get stuff done out there.  That is disappointing, that put us in the hole.  If your most experienced players get into immediate foul trouble we are in trouble."

"I thought Kiana came in and gave us a spark early, maybe got a little tired, but I think she's fabulous, I thought she did really really well for us...we have to shoot a better percentage, probably some ill-advised shots, but she is fabulous to work with..."

She also credited Shannon Coffee, who "kept us going a little bit."

As for the challenging schedule, she sticks by her guns that this "will help us in the long run" and said "I'm glad that Kim called me" suggesting that it was Baylor's idea to play.  "This has been a very, very touch stretch, but we will learn and get better.  I'm very confident we will do that." 

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - crackpot - 12-03-2017

(12-03-2017, 04:38 PM)chimera link Wrote:  If we don't play better by P-12 season and rack up some good wins, there is a chance we do not make the NCAAs this year for the first time in forever.

A whopping three games to get this right.

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - mbdude - 12-03-2017

(12-03-2017, 04:59 PM)81alum link Wrote:Tara's press conference is up:
https://soundcloud.com/gostanford/baylor-tara-vanderveer-postgame-12317

Said we "stayed with an experienced and well coached team after the first quarter."  "The first quarter was disappointing."  Noted we had no answer for "their big girl."  "We can learn from this and get better."

"We have an extremely young team that is just learning how to play.  This early season has been baptism by fire.  We were beaten by a better team and we need to learn from this, have better shot selection."  "Brown is so big...and we did not defend her the way we had worked on."

As for Johnson and Smith getting into foul trouble.  "That's disappointing.  We have to evaluate our starting lineup, and we need to evaluate people....who's doing what we need them to do, and just figuring out who is going to get stuff done out there.  That is disappointing, that put us in the hole.  If your most experienced players get into immediate foul trouble we are in trouble."

"I thought Kiana came in and gave us a spark early, maybe got a little tired, but I think she's fabulous, I thought she did really really well for us...we have to shoot a better percentage, probably some ill-advised shots, but she is fabulous to work with..."

She also credited Shannon Coffee, who "kept us going a little bit."

As for the challenging schedule, she sticks by her guns that this "will help us in the long run" and said "I'm glad that Kim called me" suggesting that it was Baylor's idea to play.  "This has been a very, very touch stretch, but we will learn and get better.  I'm very confident we will do that."

She continues to stress "we will learn from this and "we will get better"  after every tough loss,  but haven't really seen that except for a few individuals. 

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - 2006alum - 12-03-2017

(12-03-2017, 05:32 PM)mbdude link Wrote:She continues to stress "we will learn from this and "we will get better"  after every tough loss,  but haven't really seen that except for a few individuals.

Yeah, the problem is that after every breakout game by one player, they regress the next. We've not seen two really big performances in a row from Carrington or Smith; others, like Wilson, Williams, Romano, and Coffee, have each had at least one really good game, but then seem to disappear the next one. Dodson has been really solid whenever she's in but she isn't getting a ton of minutes in any given game, and given our problems attacking the zone, she's often sitting inside watching while we heave junk shots from the perimeter.

It's honestly hard to assess where we're at because we've so far had four really top teams (UConn, Baylor, Ohio St x2), four teams we should easily have beaten (USF, Riverside, Bakersfield, and Kent State), and only one moderately difficult game we should win (Belmont). The second half of the Belmont game we looked really good and that was very encouraging. But we have not put it all together across four quarters and we aren't consistently getting output from anyone. I didn't realize just how dependent we would be on McPhee this season. She is herself somewhat streaky, but starting from a higher baseline (~10 points on a bad night, ~28 on a good one). Smith and Carrington have that potential, but they just aren't putting it together for multiple games in a row. And as a result, going into every single game, I truly have no idea what to respect, and from whom.

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - chimera - 12-03-2017

Since I've already gotten (private) grief about worrying about the post-season already I will explain my thinking.  We are 5-4.  After the next three games we may be 7-5 with two home wins against not so great teams and a loss to TN, though of course I hope we beat TN (McPhee back would surely help) and believe we can.  Beating TN would be brobdingnagian this year because it would show we have improved and give us a quality non-conference big name win. If we are 7-5 we need 13 conference wins to hit 20, which is not a guarantee to get an NCAA invite.  Our biggest problem is the best team we have beaten is Belmont.  No bad losses but no really good wins.  20 or 21 wins without some marquee wins is iffy for the NCAAs.  We really need to do well in conference with this non-conference schedule of "good" losses but no great wins (Belmont is a good win, not a great one).  But right now I see plenty of possible losses in conference - UCLA and UO particularly.  Getting 13 or 14 conference wins may not be so easy for this team given the youth and inconsistent play.  And if we don't do that we very well could miss out, even if the team does improve a lot.  Bottom line - to feel good about the post-season we need to beat TN, go 13-5 or 14-4 in conference, and beat the top conference teams like UO and UCLA for a couple of top wins the committee can point to.  Of course if we can't beat UO or UCLA at least once we probably won't get to 14-4.  Too many other tough games.  So that is why I feel like we are in some danger.  Of course we could also improve a ton and make all this look silly.  Just hard to do that playing so many young players. 

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - 76lsjumb - 12-03-2017

(12-03-2017, 03:06 PM)81alum link Wrote:Williams had 34 minutes and Sniezek 6.  I think Tara knows what you know. 

For the season: 
Williams 11 assists to 3 turnovers. 
Sniezek 38 assists to 22 turnovers. 
Sniezek 41 points in 227 minutes shooting 30%, 29% from three.
Williams 52 points in 159 minutes, shooting 28%, 34% from three.

Williams has the fewest turnovers of anyone with a significant number of minutes.  Romano and Jerome have a similar number of minutes and more than twice the turnovers,

The real question is why it has taken so long for Tara to know this.  It's been evident for years that  Sniezek's play is repeated, predictable, and critically-timed high risk and rare, inconsistent, and largely unpredictable high reward.  Not a great recipe for running a solid offense.  Today, for example, I think she subbed in close to the end of the first half, took the inbound pass, and promptly threw the ball out of bounds for a turnover in less than 2 seconds of playing time.  She occasionally throws a brilliant assist pass, but much more often ... doesn't.

Unfortunately, this season it looks like Stanford's best point guard is playing for N.otre D.ame.

That being said, as we convert to an "all threes all the time offense" -- which seems to be our currently most successful scoring strategy when it works -- Williams will be fun to watch.

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - qwerty49 - 12-03-2017

I agree with chimera that first  of all we are running out of time and schedule to get better. But more importantly we might not have the resources, in terms of both talent and coaching. Amy was pretty good at working with our posts, and she’s not on the bench or in the gym anymore. And our post play has been really disappointing IMHO.

Kaylee has totally regressed - whenever she gets the ball she looks to pass it out. There’s such a thing as being too unselfish. Post offense from Fingal and Coffee seems to consist of taking a three.

There’s no offensive cohesion at this point. Maybe McPhee’s return will light a spark but wow we sure have a long way to go.

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - mbdude - 12-03-2017

It's not just beating Oregon or  UCLA - having seen Oregon St and Utah play they are playing far better than we are, and getting better as are the other teams.  Right now I wouldn't  say there are any guaranteed wins in league.
As to the point of we will get better (and I hate to use Kaylee as an example) but she is in her 4th year, and as pointed out,  has the same limited offensive skills she possessed as a freshman. nadia hasn't shown the improvement touted by Tara. Is Alexa is getting more playing time just because she is our best option - she appears to be the same player as last year
The tough schedule may have some benefits but it is really tough to run and learn your offense when you are a playing a superior defense. And I still don't know what offense we are running

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - 81alum - 12-03-2017

I agree that beating Tennessee or beating UCLA in late December would be a very good sign and go a long way to getting our season on track.  Since they are both at home and come after two more weeks to get McPhee healthy and to improve our system, I am somewhat hopeful. 

Let's keep in mind, however, that getting McPhee back won't necessarily mean we get her back at the same level she left.  She may be way out of practice and out of sync compared with where she was before she got hurt.

I also agree with the critique that many of our players have shown progress but that none seems consistent.  We can live with different players stepping up each night so long as someone does--in fact that makes us more difficult to scout.  But what we can't live with is having our 5 starters make 2 baskets in the first half. 

What this season is teaching me is just how important experience is.  Somewhat average players with the benefit of being in Tara's system for several years can do a creditable job.  McCall and Karlie and Roberson were not superstar players, nor were they particularly good in their freshman years.  It took time for those three to develop. 

If Dodson and Williams are 2 of our best five players, then what can we expect out of them this year?  Tara has compared Dodson to a young Nneka.  Well, maybe.  Nneka started 14 games her freshman season and averaged 21 minutes a game, averaging 10 points and 6 rebounds a game.  Dodson could still wind up doing something like that but she is not yet on pace.  At the moment she is averaging 14 minutes, 5 points and 3 rebounds, so she would have to pick it up and get more time and more efficiency heading into Pac 12 play.

Who should we compare Kiana Williams to?  Amber Orrange had a slightly worse ranking coming in to college.  Amber started 23 games her freshman year, playing 22 minutes a game.  She averaged 5 points a game and had 112 assists to 57 turnovers.  As a sophomore she averaged 11 ppg.  Kiana so far is averaging 18 minutes, 6 points, and has a total of 11 assists to 3 turnovers.  Keep in mind though that not all the time she is in has she been playing point.  If she takes over full time at point she needs to get her assists up while keeping her turnovers low--but to generate assists she needs teammates who can receive passes and make baskets.  McPhee could be that target.

Finally, Carrington and Smith need to become more consistent.  They may be helped if Williams and Dodson become credible threats and McPhee comes back. 

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - biketoc - 12-03-2017

Some really great observations and comments above.  I think Johnson is at best a role player.  I thought Fingall really played well when she got extended time last year when Johnson was hurt.  I was surprised and disappointed that Kaylee returned to get the lion's share of the minutes.  Some commenters have stated that Kaylee is a really good rebounder.  As a freshman I thought so too, but as I watch now she seems to have the ball knocked away much too often.  As we all know she is an offensive liability.  She has her over under move it only works against lesser players.

Maya has instinct and a nose for the basket that Kaylee just doesn't have.  The game is still too fast for her, but with more playing time she will adjust.  I think her ceiling, even this year, is much higher than Kaylee's.  I would have been giving her more minutes all along.

It's time for Alanna to step up and be more consistent.  She was pretty much a ghost today.  She has too much talent and experience to not be a cornerstone of this team.

I think Shannon did a really good job today, especially considering she doesn't get much playing time.  I don't see her as a starter, but against certain teams she should be a key option.

I have been a fan of Marta's (SHOOT MORE!), but it is clear Kianna has a much higher ceiling.  Kianna is quickly becoming comfortable running the offense and becoming an offensive threat.

It is amazing just how cold the entire team can be at times.  There were many wide open missed shots today, let alone open shots that were passed up.  It seems like players are thinking too much or are worried about making a mistake and then getting taken out of the game.  I'm not sure what it is, but we have all seen there is talent on this team yet it isn't always on display. 

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Re: WBB: Baylor 81 Stanford 57 - TheFarm07 - 12-03-2017

Chiming in, I agree with the consensus of these posts. Even in these losses, we hope that the team is learning, adapting and improving. However, it seems like a rerun every time out on the court. Consistency is a big issue; we can have great shooting nights, but they are far and few between, but we go on too many scoring droughts way too often. Open shots that other teams are draining on a consistent basis are routinely missed by our players for some reason even as Tara touted our shooting prowess in the preseason.

We can be lazy with the ball and have it picked off too often. I remember one play today late in the game; I think it was the opening possession of the 4th quarter when I think Cox was guarding someone on the perimeter and our guard was basically telegraphing wanting to pass the ball to the player that Cox was guarding. Cox anticipated it and stole the ball so easily. I saw that from a mile away. Other times, we tried to squeeze it into a low percentage tight situation in the paint and either it's picked off or even if our player gets it, they instantly crowded by defenders and turn the ball over, either out of bounds or traveling.

I agree, we have nothing to lose at this point. This two week break gives the team to regroup and for Brit to recover, but we are not going to get better if we don't change things quickly or drop our bad habits. At this point, I think Kiana and Maya deserve much more playing time than Marta or Kaylee. It's also disappointing that our players don't develop as quickly or as well as we had hoped them to be, from Kaylee's offensive skills to Fingall, we hoped for a step up and unfortunately, it's not there.

Even those players who have had improved a significant deal, such as Alanna or Brit, haven't had the consistency to cement them as top-tier players like we had with the Ogwumikes or Appel in the past. Alanna's foul issues, which seemed to have diminished last season as the year went by, has crept back in. It's especially damaging right now with Brit's injury, we don't have a veteran scoring presence on the floor.

On the other side, you see Cox, as the #1 recruit last year already showing much better numbers. Last year, she avg. 7.6 pts on 43% shooting and 4 rebounds a game. Just a month into the season, she has made a brobdingnagian jump to averaging a double-double at 16.7 pts/10.2 rbds and shooting 53%.

Side note: I agree with the bad timing with the tough scheduling this year. Generally, I am a proponent of a tough schedule. It prepares us and gives us a taste of what we will go against in the NCAA tourney and the bar we will have to pass. But those years are for teams with legitimate national title hopes, think the ball clubs in the late 2000s and early 2010s.

This year would have been better off with a softer schedule with our usual yearly game against Tennessee and then the chance of running into Ohio State in the Vegas tournament. Otherwise, it would have been better to schedule opponents early on in the non-conference slate where we can utilize our Princeton offense more easily and perhaps work our way up to a Top-15 to Top-25 team like a Texas A&M or Kentucky, where it would be a tough, but still potentially winnable game, unlike with an elite team, such as UConn, or a N.D. or a Louisville.

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