San Diego State At Stanford - Printable Version
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RE: San Diego State At Stanford - OutsiderFan - 07-30-2018
Last year's Stanford team would have been better against and beaten SDSU with KJ Costello at QB.
This year's Stanford team with KJ Costello is better than last year's Stanford team with KJ Costello.
The talent advantage Stanford has on offense compared to what SDSU has, is, in a word, overwhelming.
Without bothering to see who SDSU has, I know Stanford has the better OL, the better QB, the better RB, the better TE.
Maybe SDSU has the better WRs, but do they?
Stanford's DL may not be quite as good as SDSU, but even if they aren't, Stanford's OL > SDSU by such a margin, it hardly matters.
Stanford has the better LB unit.
Stanford has at least as good a Secondary.
Stanford has the better kicking game.
SDSU hasn't won a road game against a Power 5 opponent since the 80's.
Stanford should win this year's game by no less than a 17 point margin and not struggle against the SDSU defense.
On paper, it's not really close.
If Stanford does not win this game handily, something is really wrong with the Stanford coaching staff's ability to adequately prepare and use the talent it has been able to collect.
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - Spiny_Norman - 07-30-2018
(07-30-2018, 12:10 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: SDSU hasn't won a road game against a Power 5 opponent since the 80s.
SDSU won at Tempe last year.
Quote:If Stanford does not win this game handily, something is really wrong with the Stanford coaching staff's ability to adequately prepare and use the talent it has been able to collect.
I think there was support for that sentiment on this board after last year's SDSU game. Then the team went on to win the P12 North. My point is that people should not use any one game as a litmus test for the team or the coaches.
On the other hand, if you want to criticize the coaches for the time it takes to call a play and the number of delay of game penalties called against Stanford (or TOs used to avoid a delay of game), I will join you. We have years of evidence anxiously watching the play clock count down.
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - Goose - 07-30-2018
(07-30-2018, 12:10 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Without bothering to see who SDSU has, I know Stanford has the better OL, the better QB, the better RB, the better TE.I can understand the argument for OL, TE, and for sure RB. But QB? KJ has played part of one season. Let's not make the same mistake that was made with Chryst, in thinking a few good games means you are great. I happen to also believe that KJ is going to be a big upgrade, but the idea that is a given is a bit premature. The SDSU guy has been there and done that. I can't support the idea KJ is obviously better. He may be, but he hasn't proven it yet.
(07-30-2018, 12:10 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: On paper, it's not really close.That was also true last year. Unfortunately they didn't play the game on paper.
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - Robbie - 07-30-2018
(07-30-2018, 12:56 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: I think there was support for that sentiment on this board after last year's SDSU game. Then the team went on to win the P12 North. My point is that people should not use any one game as a litmus test for the team or the coaches.
The 1999 game against Texas was huge. (Aside from the score. And the trip to Pasadena in January 2000.)
The 2015 loss to Northwestern was a disaster that indicated a season to be forgotten (aside from the Rose Bowl victory.)
The 2017 loss to SDSU again pointed to a woeful season (aside from the Pac12 North championship.)
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - SamuelMcF - 07-30-2018
(07-30-2018, 01:09 PM)Robbie Wrote:(07-30-2018, 12:56 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: I think there was support for that sentiment on this board after last year's SDSU game. Then the team went on to win the P12 North. My point is that people should not use any one game as a litmus test for the team or the coaches.
The 1999 game against Texas was huge. (Aside from the score. And the trip to Pasadena in January 2000.)
The 2015 loss to Northwestern was a disaster that indicated a season to be forgotten (aside from the Rose Bowl victory.)
The 2017 loss to SDSU again pointed to a woeful season (aside from the Pac12 North championship.)
Lol :)
Notably, many casual fans and even more hardcore fans on r/cfb still think Washington won the North last year.
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - BostonCard - 07-30-2018
(07-30-2018, 01:09 PM)Robbie Wrote:(07-30-2018, 12:56 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: I think there was support for that sentiment on this board after last year's SDSU game. Then the team went on to win the P12 North. My point is that people should not use any one game as a litmus test for the team or the coaches.
The 1999 game against Texas was huge. (Aside from the score. And the trip to Pasadena in January 2000.)
The 2015 loss to Northwestern was a disaster that indicated a season to be forgotten (aside from the Rose Bowl victory.)
The 2017 loss to SDSU again pointed to a woeful season (aside from the Pac12 North championship.)
My sarcasm detector took way too long to kick in on that one.
BC
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - Spiny_Norman - 07-30-2018
FYI - this is the guy the defense has to contain this year - Juwan Washington. We saw him last year as the backup to Penney.
https://twitter.com/WatchStadium/status/1022301729784778754
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - OutsiderFan - 07-30-2018
Temple is not a Power 5 program.
Costello was always a better prospect then Chryst. Costello should have been the starter in 2017 from the Rice game on, and I am not saying that in hindsight This was my opinion at the time. Costello is more decisive, is a quicker athlete, is a more accurate passer, plays with passion that inspires his teammates, and when he played, he proved he was better than Chryst. He's only going to get better. And for the record, I also believe Davis Mills is better than Costello. Stanford should be in pretty good shape at QB the next few seasons at least.
You don't get any mulligans in college football. Game 1 is just as important as any other game if you want to pursue a National Championship. I will concede that winning by a smaller than expected margin isn't the end of the world in terms of chasing one. But losing absolutely would be.
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - SamuelMcF - 07-30-2018
(07-30-2018, 05:43 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Temple is not a Power 5 program.
SDSU beat Arizona State by 10 in Tempe last year.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400935259
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - Goose - 07-30-2018
(07-30-2018, 05:43 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Costello is more decisive, is a quicker athlete, is a more accurate passer, plays with passion that inspires his teammates, and when he played, he proved he was better than Chryst.I mostly agree. But that doesn't mean he is better than the guy from SDSU. It also is somewhat damning with faint praise. While I can't claim that I favored Costello over Chryst at the start of last season, I am certainly on the record with an abundance of caution about Chryst going into the season. I have better expectations for Costello, but I also saw him have some problems last year. Every player does, at times. He hasn't yet played a full season. Let's see what we get before we anoint him.
(07-30-2018, 05:43 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: He's only going to get better.I hope so. But that certainly didn't apply to our last two candidates. Burns started out pretty good and went straight downhill. Maybe not his fault, but that is what happened. Chryst was considered by some to be "the answer" last year, and I would argue he got worse as the year went on. So, the idea that more opportunity always improves a player is clearly not universal. Hopefully, in Costello's case, that happens. But, I am not yet taking it to the bank.
(07-30-2018, 05:43 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: And for the record, I also believe Davis Mills is better than Costello.So noted.
(07-30-2018, 05:43 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: You don't get any mulligans in college football. Game 1 is just as important as any other game if you want to pursue a National Championship. I will concede that winning by a smaller than expected margin isn't the end of the world in terms of chasing one. But losing absolutely would be.True. No one loss PAC-12 team is going to get into the NC race unless everybody else has two losses.
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - SteveAztec - 07-30-2018
(07-30-2018, 12:10 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Last year's Stanford team would have been better against and beaten SDSU with KJ Costello at QB.
This year's Stanford team with KJ Costello is better than last year's Stanford team with KJ Costello.
The talent advantage Stanford has on offense compared to what SDSU has, is, in a word, overwhelming.
Without bothering to see who SDSU has, I know Stanford has the better OL, the better QB, the better RB, the better TE.
Maybe SDSU has the better WRs, but do they?
Stanford's DL may not be quite as good as SDSU, but even if they aren't, Stanford's OL > SDSU by such a margin, it hardly matters.
Stanford has the better LB unit.
Stanford has at least as good a Secondary.
Stanford has the better kicking game.
SDSU hasn't won a road game against a Power 5 opponent since the 80's.
Stanford should win this year's game by no less than a 17 point margin and not struggle against the SDSU defense.
On paper, it's not really close.
If Stanford does not win this game handily, something is really wrong with the Stanford coaching staff's ability to adequately prepare and use the talent it has been able to collect.
Now THIS is an interesting post. I would like to comment on each of your takes...And believe me I am not taking away anything from Stanford. Stanford is a very talented team and if I had to bet $100,000 on this game straight up, I can guarantee you I would take Stanford...BUT...
-KJ Costello could very well be a better QB than you had last season. But we don't know how he is going to play after being blindsided 2 or 3 times. The Aztec D lives and dies by bringing the blitz from all different angles. It is very confusing to most QB's. If the Aztecs can't hit KJ and hit him often, Stanford will win this game. Is KJ going to be hit often? My guess would be yes.
-I agree with you that Stanford will be better this year and last.
-The talent level on offense by Stanford is better than the Aztecs. But the Aztecs offense is good. Starting with the winningest QB in Aztec History. While Chris Chapman is not going to be an NFL QB, he has done all the right things and has started at QB since 1/2 thru his frosh year. The back up (if Chapman gets hurt) is what I worry about.
-Offensive Line vs Defensive Line from both perspectives? Stanford Oline is big and talented and will be tough to handle for the Aztecs defensive front 3. But lets remember, the Aztecs front 3 (instead of 4) just needs to clog and hold their own. Most of the Aztecs defensive heroics are on the linebackers. Interesting match up though...The Aztec Offensive line started 2 frosh and a soph last year. The Aztecs Oline are Monsters and pretty Athletic.
-Linebackers. I'm going to agree that Stanfords crew is better than the Aztecs crew, but I'm not sure by how much. Lakalaka and Tezino are as tough and active as linebackers can get. We have a solid starting 3 and are deep in backups. Linebacker has been one of the top Aztecs positions for years now and this year is no exception.
-Because of our 3-3-5 and blitzing style, our Corners are often in man to man coverage. One on one. They can have a great game and still get beat a couple of times deep. It is nearly impossible to cover great WR one on one. With that being said, DB's and corners are what we have a lot of. A couple vets with speed and a host of youngins that are very athletic.
-Kicking. I'm not sure what Stanford has (I'm sure they are good), but they can't be much better than John Baron III. He is on the Groza Watch list, kick off very well and rarely misses field goals inside 45 yards. I think our punter is pretty good but needs to be more consistent.
-San Diego State has beat Power 5 teams on the road recently, but we had a long run of losing to P5 games on the road. As mentioned earlier we beat Arizona State last year at Tempe. (We have nothing to brag about in that area)
-17 point win for Stanford? Aww Hell, that would not surprise me. It also would not surprise me to see the Aztecs win the game of "big plays" and win by 10 or so.
What does all the above mean? It means it is going to be an exciting game at Stanford and I expect Stanford to be favored. I do think it will be a low scoring game like season and the lower scoring the better in this one for the Aztecs.
I can't wait to see your new Stadium (we hear our proposed new Stadium will possibly be patterned after yours). We need a Stadium so bad to keep this Division 1 football program heading the correct way.
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - OutsiderFan - 07-30-2018
Excuse me for missing ASU's debacle. SDSU hadn't won a road game vs. a Power 5 team in something like 17 tries before that, though they had many close calls.
And I don't mean to be a dick, Aztec fan, but San Diego State is just a nuisance Stanford faces before a meaningful game against USC the following week. I don't represent the Stanford fan base, but I'm not just looking for a win. I'm looking for dominance.
SDSU beat Stanford last year in one of the two worst games Stanford played all season. Good for them. Appreciate it, but don't come here with some "wait until you see this guy or that guy take out your QB" B.S. SDSU needed a phantom roughing the kicker penalty and Stanford's offense to effectively give up a score, to win in 2017.
Stanford is a more talented team than SDSU across the board. This is a fact. You know it. I know it. The more talented team doesn't always win, but the more talented team should be expected to, and actually win.
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - BostonCard - 07-30-2018
(07-30-2018, 05:43 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Costello was always a better prospect then Chryst. Costello should have been the starter in 2017 from the Rice game on, and I am not saying that in hindsight This was my opinion at the time. Costello is more decisive, is a quicker athlete, is a more accurate passer, plays with passion that inspires his teammates, and when he played, he proved he was better than Chryst. He's only going to get better. And for the record, I also believe Davis Mills is better than Costello. Stanford should be in pretty good shape at QB the next few seasons at least.
That's revisionist history. Here are their rankings as prospects:
2014 247 rankings: Chryst #3 QB, #51 overall, #6 in CA
2016 247 rankings: Costello #3 QB, #47 overall, #7 in CA
As far as recruiting rankings are concerned, those two are indistinguishable.
You might be able to make a case that as a prospect, Mills is qualitatively above the other two (#1 QB, #15 overall, #1 in AlabamaGeorgia).
BC
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - SamuelMcF - 07-30-2018
(07-30-2018, 08:21 PM)BostonCard Wrote: You might be able to make a case that as a prospect, Mills is qualitatively above the other two (#1 QB, #15 overall, #1 in Alabama).
*Georgia.
(Jack West is from Alabama.)
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - BostonCard - 07-30-2018
(07-30-2018, 08:42 PM)SamuelMcF Wrote:(07-30-2018, 08:21 PM)BostonCard Wrote: You might be able to make a case that as a prospect, Mills is qualitatively above the other two (#1 QB, #15 overall, #1 in Alabama).
*Georgia.
(Jack West is from Alabama.)
Thanks for the correction. I should have known better, as there is a fellow Stanford fan from Georgia who was singing his praises to me when he was a recruit.
BC
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - Snorlax94 - 07-30-2018
(07-30-2018, 07:37 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Excuse me for missing ASU's debacle. SDSU hadn't won a road game vs. a Power 5 team in something like 17 tries before that, though they had many close calls.Someone comes to this website and very politely and in the spirit of reaching out mentions he is making a trip up, is excited about the game, and wants to engage in a dialogue.
And I don't mean to be a dick, Aztec fan, but San Diego State is just a nuisance Stanford faces before a meaningful game against USC the following week. I don't represent the Stanford fan base, but I'm not just looking for a win. I'm looking for dominance.
SDSU beat Stanford last year in one of the two worst games Stanford played all season. Good for them. Appreciate it, but don't come here with some "wait until you see this guy or that guy take out your QB" B.S. SDSU needed a phantom roughing the kicker penalty and Stanford's offense to effectively give up a score, to win in 2017.
Stanford is a more talented team than SDSU across the board. This is a fact. You know it. I know it. The more talented team doesn't always win, but the more talented team should be expected to, and actually win.
I see no reason for this to deteriorate into taunting and making criticisms about any other program.
I see many possibilities. I do think the likeliest is that Stanford’s offense comes out of the gates quickly this year, playing at an elite level from game 1, and if they do that, I think it would stun most opponents without an experienced top 20 defense with the right attributes to match up. However, most years, Stanford starts the season very slow. I’ve seen SDSU ranked a preseason top 25 team, and I think it’s crazy to disrespect a program like that. Ranked teams are always dangerous, and they won last year.
Additionally, I could imagine someone would come to this board to get a sense of what to expect when he visits campus. And SteveAztec, I hope and believe you will find Stanford is a wonderful host. It’s a beautiful campus, and hospitably receives visitors from around the world every day. I expect you will have a wonderful time with two disappointments: the parking situation, whose ineffeciencies will confound you, and, I hope, the outcome of the game.
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - CTcard - 07-30-2018
(07-30-2018, 01:07 PM)Goose Wrote: I can understand the argument for OL, TE, and for sure RB. But QB? KJ has played part of one season. Let's not make the same mistake that was made with Chryst, in thinking a few good games means you are great.
I am not exactly sure who the we is that you are referring to, but for the most part the Stanford fan base was highly skeptical of Chryst going into the 2017 season. This was mostly because his three good games came against atrocious defenses, but also because he had collapsed into inaccuracy problems at several points in 2016. I myself argued on this board, that Chryst's good games were still good games even if the defenses were bad - but was also wary about what he had established and his consistency.
Costello does look a lot better than Chryst to me, largely for the reasons listed above but perhaps even moreso because he doesn't seem to go into a funk the way Chryst did from time to time.
If you want a statistic on the point, I'd go with:
In 2016 Chryst played the predominant part of five games, with two very poor performances. Four of the five were against very poor defenses, with OSU being the best at #79.
In 2017 Costello played the predominant part of eight games with one very poor performance. The poor performance was against a very good defense (WSU - #16 overall, #7 pass defense PER). Five of the defenses he faced were better than the best defense Chryst saw in 2016, and all were better than the second best defense Chryst saw.
-----
To the broader point, I would agree that one cannot declare Costello better without examining the other guy.
San Diego hasn't thrown the ball much under Chapman, averaging under 19 attempts per game for three straight years. For comparison, last year Stanford threw 25.9 times per game.
Chapman has been pretty efficient - roughly what Shaw wants from a QB. Last year Chapman had an efficiency rating of 139.2 just about dead even with Costello at 139.5. The previous year Chapman came in at 149.2.
An interesting (infuriating?) bit about Chapman was that his game versus Stanford was his career high in attempts and completions, his only game with over 20 completions ... only game over 16 completions for that matter.
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - SteveAztec - 07-31-2018
(07-30-2018, 07:37 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Excuse me for missing ASU's debacle. SDSU hadn't won a road game vs. a Power 5 team in something like 17 tries before that, though they had many close calls.
And I don't mean to be a dick, Aztec fan, but San Diego State is just a nuisance Stanford faces before a meaningful game against USC the following week. I don't represent the Stanford fan base, but I'm not just looking for a win. I'm looking for dominance.
SDSU beat Stanford last year in one of the two worst games Stanford played all season. Good for them. Appreciate it, but don't come here with some "wait until you see this guy or that guy take out your QB" B.S. SDSU needed a phantom roughing the kicker penalty and Stanford's offense to effectively give up a score, to win in 2017.
Stanford is a more talented team than SDSU across the board. This is a fact. You know it. I know it. The more talented team doesn't always win, but the more talented team should be expected to, and actually win.
I hear you Outsider.
(07-30-2018, 09:38 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:(07-30-2018, 07:37 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Excuse me for missing ASU's debacle. SDSU hadn't won a road game vs. a Power 5 team in something like 17 tries before that, though they had many close calls.Someone comes to this website and very politely and in the spirit of reaching out mentions he is making a trip up, is excited about the game, and wants to engage in a dialogue.
And I don't mean to be a dick, Aztec fan, but San Diego State is just a nuisance Stanford faces before a meaningful game against USC the following week. I don't represent the Stanford fan base, but I'm not just looking for a win. I'm looking for dominance.
SDSU beat Stanford last year in one of the two worst games Stanford played all season. Good for them. Appreciate it, but don't come here with some "wait until you see this guy or that guy take out your QB" B.S. SDSU needed a phantom roughing the kicker penalty and Stanford's offense to effectively give up a score, to win in 2017.
Stanford is a more talented team than SDSU across the board. This is a fact. You know it. I know it. The more talented team doesn't always win, but the more talented team should be expected to, and actually win.
I see no reason for this to deteriorate into taunting and making criticisms about any other program.
I see many possibilities. I do think the likeliest is that Stanford’s offense comes out of the gates quickly this year, playing at an elite level from game 1, and if they do that, I think it would stun most opponents without an experienced top 20 defense with the right attributes to match up. However, most years, Stanford starts the season very slow. I’ve seen SDSU ranked a preseason top 25 team, and I think it’s crazy to disrespect a program like that. Ranked teams are always dangerous, and they won last year.
Additionally, I could imagine someone would come to this board to get a sense of what to expect when he visits campus. And SteveAztec, I hope and believe you will find Stanford is a wonderful host. It’s a beautiful campus, and hospitably receives visitors from around the world every day. I expect you will have a wonderful time with two disappointments: the parking situation, whose ineffeciencies will confound you, and, I hope, the outcome of the game.
Oh yes. I think it is going to be a great time. I love visiting opponents Stadiums and I have no doubt the Stanford fans will be very hospitable. I look forward to the game no matter who comes out victories.
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - OutsiderFan - 07-31-2018
(07-30-2018, 08:21 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(07-30-2018, 05:43 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Costello was always a better prospect then Chryst. Costello should have been the starter in 2017 from the Rice game on, and I am not saying that in hindsight This was my opinion at the time. Costello is more decisive, is a quicker athlete, is a more accurate passer, plays with passion that inspires his teammates, and when he played, he proved he was better than Chryst. He's only going to get better. And for the record, I also believe Davis Mills is better than Costello. Stanford should be in pretty good shape at QB the next few seasons at least.
That's revisionist history...
Not for me. Here's was my take on Chryst...
A guy who's opinion I trust saw Chryst play in person in high school a few times and said that yes, physically he had everything, but he was actually chronically overrated as a recruit. And it isn't the end all stat, but Chryst didn't even complete 60% of his passes in any year as a starter at Paly, in not the toughest league. That's kind of a red flag to me. I was willing to accept he might get better with college coaching, etc., but was quite skeptical.
Then I saw a Spring practice in March 2016. The QBs participating were Burns and Chryst. They looked the same to me, almost like mirror images of one another. I was rooting for Chryst to be named the starter because he was such a higher rated prospect than Burns, and he didn't have to learn how to play QB like Burns did coming from a single wing offense in high school. In this Spring practice Burns took off running too soon (though when he did he ran much better than Chryst) and didn't have good feel for the position. Not that Chryst clearly did, but he just "seemed" he would be better.
When Burns was named the starter in 2016 I was hopeful. I figured he's a much better runner than Chryst, but I felt Chryst was the better passer, so if Burns faltered Chryst might prove himself in games. You saw the results. Burns had one half of good play against KSU and that miraculous 2-minute drill to beat UCLA, and that was that. He was brutal the rest of his Stanford career. In came Chryst after the Colorado debacle, to play some really bad defenses. If Burns was a 2 on a scale of 1-10, Chryst was maybe a 3 or 4. That's simply not good enough. So based on thinking they were pretty even in that Spring practice, and seeing how bad Burns and Chryst were in games, I strongly believed a change was needed.
Meanwhile, Costello was redshirting during that 2016 season. How could he not be better than both Burns and Chryst? I had compared their high school reels to each other, and it was pretty clear to me Costello was the better prospect and Chryst was rated incorrectly. When you threw in what Chryst did in games, and coming off an ACL surgery, I wanted Costello to start against Rice and be the starter in 2017 - fully aware that Davis Mills might actually be even better than Costello in 2018 and beyond - because he to me was clearly the better prospect.
So, no, it's not revisionist history for me. Ever since comparing Costello and Chryst after that 2016 season, based on what I had gathered, my belief was Costello was the better prospect, regardless of what the scouting service ratings said about them as recruits.
RE: San Diego State At Stanford - Hulk01 - 07-31-2018
I made a special effort to sign back up for this board after I read the fan's post.
The poster's observation about his Aztecs' defensive line getting to Costello startled me.
The Aztecs had a good team last year, but their pass rush was a decided weakness. FEI ranked its sack rate the 8th worst in the country, and its sack rate on passing downs the 10th worst.
Meanwhile, Stanford's offense ranked 17th best for sack avoidance overall, and 22nd best on passing downs. And ranked even higher--top 15--in the games that Costello played.
Stanford's OL returns virtually in tact and a year more experienced. Three of its offensive linemen--Nate Herbig, Jesse Burkett, and Walker Little--appear on preseason best 100 players in the nation lists.
I'd sign off with a "it should be a good game,: but the odds seems decisively against it.