Doing some dot-connecting - Printable Version

Doing some dot-connecting - Printable Version

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RE: Doing some dot-connecting - martyup - 08-10-2018

BL returning kicks could be big, not only for his scoring ability but also for his APY potential.

RE: Doing some dot-connecting - PVTree - 08-11-2018

I'd prefer BL be used sparingly in the return game. Something like how Darrell Green used to be used as a punt returner with Washington...just on special occasions when you really need to get something from the return.

RE: Doing some dot-connecting - Phogge - 08-11-2018

The quote is so Shawspeak.

RE: Doing some dot-connecting - BostonCard - 08-15-2018

(08-08-2018, 02:08 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: My ideal Love per game usage pattern:

~ 20-25 rushes
~ 3-5 receptions

He can be used in play actions and draw defenses with motion to open up things for other guys.

3 - 5 receptions/game is 39 to 70 (receptions for a 13 - 14 game season). Last year, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, our leading receiver, had 48 receptions. Two years ago, Trent Irwin had 37 to lead the 2016 team. McCaffrey had 45 when he led the team in 2015. So, let's be realistic. Love has 29 receptions in his three year career. He's not going to have 40 in one year, let alone 70. I think if we can get him 1-2 receptions per game (15 - 30 for the year) that would be great.

BC

RE: Doing some dot-connecting - stupac2 - 08-15-2018

(08-15-2018, 03:14 PM)BostonCard Wrote: 3 - 5 receptions/game is 39 to 70 (receptions for a 13 - 14 game season). Last year, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, our leading receiver, had 48 receptions. Two years ago, Trent Irwin had 37 to lead the 2016 team. McCaffrey had 45 when he led the team in 2015. So, let's be realistic. Love has 29 receptions in his three year career. He's not going to have 40 in one year, let alone 70. I think if we can get him 1-2 receptions per game (15 - 30 for the year) that would be great.

BC

Sometimes I think people don't really examine these numbers when they post them. I've seen ones that when you add them all up posit something like 80 plays/game. Like, sure, that works if you're watching Oregon...

RE: Doing some dot-connecting - lex24 - 08-15-2018

Being realistic is no fun! But you are right. Let’s compromise at 2-3. One big question- will they be throwing more this year? Generally when they have thrown more under Shaw (postLuck). that has NOT been a good thing. Their offense has been best when they run more. I think, however, this may be a very different team so I do expect to see more passing this year. And if I’m right, I hope that means more ball control passing. Which would open it up more for the backs to catch some balls.

(08-15-2018, 03:14 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(08-08-2018, 02:08 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: My ideal Love per game usage pattern:

~ 20-25 rushes
~ 3-5 receptions

He can be used in play actions and draw defenses with motion to open up things for other guys.

3 - 5 receptions/game is 39 to 70 (receptions for a 13 - 14 game season). Last year, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, our leading receiver, had 48 receptions. Two years ago, Trent Irwin had 37 to lead the 2016 team. McCaffrey had 45 when he led the team in 2015. So, let's be realistic. Love has 29 receptions in his three year career. He's not going to have 40 in one year, let alone 70. I think if we can get him 1-2 receptions per game (15 - 30 for the year) that would be great.

BC

RE: Doing some dot-connecting - CTcard - 08-15-2018

(08-15-2018, 03:22 PM)lex24 Wrote: ... One big question- will they be throwing more this year? Generally when they have thrown more under Shaw (postLuck). that has NOT been a good thing. Their offense has been best when they run more. I think, however, this may be a very different team so I do expect to see more passing this year. And if I’m right, I hope that means more ball control passing. Which would open it up more for the backs to catch some balls.

I certainly agree with your first point. After I switched over to this board, one of my earlier themes was during the trauma of the 2014 season and early 2015 was where I railed against the refrain that "Stanford needs to open up the offense - Stanford needs to pass more" with the claim that Stanford's biggest problem on offense was that they weren't running the ball enough, and with enough Power - even with Wright as the main back but even more so as McCaffrey emerged.

For that team, with that particular mix of skills and holes, I remain quite convinced that was true. However, you are quite correct that this is a new team with a new set of players, and it is not so clear that is still the case. On the throw more side is the general benefits of being multiple and balanced along with an apparent quality group of pass catchers. On the run more side is one particular, incomparable talent. But the key question is really what are what meshes with the skill set of the quarterback and the OL. By mid-2014 we'd seen two full seasons of Hogan and his strengths and weaknesses were becoming clear - a gamer, good head, good at finding ways to convert on third down some way some how, but not really suited to carrying the team by throwing 40 times a game. Plus that OL was much better at run blocking. With Costello, I just haven't seen enough yet to make the same evaluation. [Though I do note that outside the WSU debacle, his PER had a strong inverse correlation with number of pass attempts.] And, after really struggling in 2016, the pass blocking was far better in 2017.

It's also worth noting what the trend has been under Shaw as OC or HC.
2007 51.3% run plays
2008 63.0% runs    (Gerhart emerges)
2009 63.1% runs
2010 58.6% runs
2011 55.4% runs    (Shaw HC, Luck a senior)
2012 57.9% runs
2013 65.3% runs
2014 55.6% runs    (before final 3 game turnaround: 51% runs)
2015 65.7% runs
2016 63.1% runs
2017 56.9% runs

Lower run percentage in 2007 was because they hadn't yet learned to run the ball, in 2011 because we had senior Luck, and in 2014 a mistake.
Kind of surprising we ran such a low percentage in 2017, given that we had Love and were searching for a QB.

My own impression is that despite the way he has built the team, when push comes to shove in the midst of a game, Shaw would like to pass near 50% of the time - but he usually has not had a team that could be successful doing that regularly. I don't feel confident I know what we'll see in 2018, but my current guess is about 55% runs.

RE: Doing some dot-connecting - OutsiderFan - 08-16-2018

The recent interview with WR coach Bobby Kennedy indicates Stanford may have its best WR coach in some time on staff now. This also happens to coincide with Stanford having the most depth at WR its had in some time, and what Jacob Rayburn is characterizing as possibly Stanford's best recruiting class of WRs in the EUTM/Shaw era.

JJAW, Irwin, Stewart, Wedington, St. Brown are locked in the rotation, but Fehoko is pushing for PT, and so too might Michael Wilson. When you add in the TEs with especially Smith and Parkinson, factor in Love and Scarlett in the passing game, and maybe the FBs a bit more, there could be maybe 10 guys who catch passes per game in all kinds of different roles.

Stanford has never in my lifetime had so many talented offensive skill players at one time. It all adds up to more balls in the air in 2018.

RE: Doing some dot-connecting - fullmetal - 08-16-2018

Taking advantage of a stacked box usually means making a quick read and a quick, accurate throw. Haven't seen much of that recently :( But who knows; the boys have been busy this summer, I hope.

I've never looked to critique Love's route running; I just don't know enough to see how his routes are inferior to CMac's. But if we can get him the ball in space, watch out!

As for returning kicks, hmmmm. Keep those ankles healthy.

RE: Doing some dot-connecting - Langdude - 08-16-2018

(08-16-2018, 05:09 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: JJAW, Irwin, Stewart, Wedington, St. Brown are locked in the rotation, but Fehoko is pushing for PT, and so too might Michael Wilson. When you add in the TEs with especially Smith and Parkinson, factor in Love and Scarlett in the passing game, and maybe the FBs a bit more, there could be maybe 10 guys who catch passes per game in all kinds of different roles.

I agree the freshmen are promising, but there are only so many balls to go around. With five talented WRs (not even counting IBS), three TE targets (not counting Fisk), and throws to the RBs and FBs, it is hard to see that there will be leftover throws to the freshmen. I don't know that we have ever thrown consistently to more than four WRs?

-m.

RE: Doing some dot-connecting - CTcard - 08-16-2018

(08-16-2018, 08:59 AM)Langdude Wrote: I agree the freshmen are promising, but there are only so many balls to go around. With five talented WRs (not even counting IBS), three TE targets (not counting Fisk), and throws to the RBs and FBs, it is hard to see that there will be leftover throws to the freshmen. I don't know that we have ever thrown consistently to more than four WRs?

Not sure what "consistently" means, maybe over one catch per game?

By that measure, here are the pass catchers we have consistently thrown to under HC Shaw (I'm grouping primarily slot guys into the WR column):

2017 - 3 WR, 2 TE
2016 - 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB
2015 - 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB
2014 - 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB
2013 - 3 WR, 1 RB
2012 - 3 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB
2011 - 3 WR, 3 TE, 2 RB

So, unless Luck is coming back we're likely looking at 5 guys with more than one catch per game.
Choose your candidates.
I'd go with JJAW, Irwin, Smith, Weddington, and one of Love/Scarlett … plus much weeping and gnashing of teeth over the guys not making the list.

RE: Doing some dot-connecting - Langdude - 08-16-2018

(08-16-2018, 10:13 AM)CTcard Wrote:
(08-16-2018, 08:59 AM)Langdude Wrote: I agree the freshmen are promising, but there are only so many balls to go around. With five talented WRs (not even counting IBS), three TE targets (not counting Fisk), and throws to the RBs and FBs, it is hard to see that there will be leftover throws to the freshmen. I don't know that we have ever thrown consistently to more than four WRs?

Not sure what "consistently" means, maybe over one catch per game?

By that measure, here are the pass catchers we have consistently thrown to under HC Shaw (I'm grouping primarily slot guys into the WR column):

2017 - 3 WR, 2 TE
2016 - 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB
2015 - 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB
2014 - 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB
2013 - 3 WR, 1 RB
2012 - 3 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB
2011 - 3 WR, 3 TE, 2 RB

So, unless Luck is coming back we're likely looking at 5 guys with more than one catch per game.
Choose your candidates.
I'd go with JJAW, Irwin, Smith, Weddington, and one of Love/Scarlett … plus much weeping and gnashing of teeth over the guys not making the list.

This is great, CT. Thanks for the info gathering.

Yeah, I meant those regularly included in the pass game. Like, in the rotation, I guess. One catch a game is a good signpost. Basically, what I was asking "aloud" is if it would be worth playing the two talented frosh WR given that they would likely only get maybe 3-5 receptions over the whole season. (But, perhaps they will be special teams players, which seemed to be what Donald Stewart's true freshman season consisted of.) It's hard to see that JJAW, Irwin, Wedington, Smith, Parkinson, OSB, Love/Scarlett/Speights all getting their catches (again, ignoring Stewart, IBS, Harrington, Fisk, Maddox, and FBs).

-m.

RE: Doing some dot-connecting - ATLCard - 08-17-2018

(08-16-2018, 10:56 PM)Langdude Wrote:
(08-16-2018, 10:13 AM)CTcard Wrote:
(08-16-2018, 08:59 AM)Langdude Wrote: I agree the freshmen are promising, but there are only so many balls to go around. With five talented WRs (not even counting IBS), three TE targets (not counting Fisk), and throws to the RBs and FBs, it is hard to see that there will be leftover throws to the freshmen. I don't know that we have ever thrown consistently to more than four WRs?

Not sure what "consistently" means, maybe over one catch per game?

By that measure, here are the pass catchers we have consistently thrown to under HC Shaw (I'm grouping primarily slot guys into the WR column):

2017 - 3 WR, 2 TE
2016 - 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB
2015 - 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB
2014 - 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB
2013 - 3 WR, 1 RB
2012 - 3 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB
2011 - 3 WR, 3 TE, 2 RB

So, unless Luck is coming back we're likely looking at 5 guys with more than one catch per game.
Choose your candidates.
I'd go with JJAW, Irwin, Smith, Weddington, and one of Love/Scarlett … plus much weeping and gnashing of teeth over the guys not making the list.

This is great, CT. Thanks for the info gathering.

Yeah, I meant those regularly included in the pass game. Like, in the rotation, I guess. One catch a game is a good signpost. Basically, what I was asking "aloud" is if it would be worth playing the two talented frosh WR given that they would likely only get maybe 3-5 receptions over the whole season. (But, perhaps they will be special teams players, which seemed to be what Donald Stewart's true freshman season consisted of.) It's hard to see that JJAW, Irwin, Wedington, Smith, Parkinson, OSB, Love/Scarlett/Speights all getting their catches (again, ignoring Stewart, IBS, Harrington, Fisk, Maddox, and FBs).

-m.

Interesting analysis; depends somewhat on the cutoff because Stewart had 11 receptions and Parkinson had 10 last year and I would argue that both were consistently involved in the passing game. For this year JJAW, Irwin, Smith, Wedington are all locks (top four receivers last year). I would argue that Parkinson is next in line as a lock because of Schultz's departure and his growth. It will be hard for Stewart (or OSB) to increase the 4th WR numbers because of OSB and the new redshirt rules which mean Fehoko/Wilson are more likely to get some snaps/targets this year for experience. RB is a wildcard and depends on distribution. Shaw could double the RB catches this year and if distributed the same as last year there still might be no one who gets above the 1/game cutoff (last year Love/Scarlett/Speights went 6/6/1).

Based on the finite number of targets and losing Schultz from last year, I predict Smith and Parkinson both increase their numbers, Love/Scarlett as well, and the overall WR allocation is flat but spread out more.

RE: Doing some dot-connecting - 82lsju - 08-18-2018

Q: Bryce Love was phenomenal last season. How do you prevent defenses from stacking the line of scrimmage to try and stop him?
A: I think it's safe to say we're going to find ways to get him the ball, period. His package will expand back to when he was as a freshman, when he caught the ball a lot. Last year, he was limited because of his injury. Bryce has done a tremendous job of working on his hands, route running, vision and pass protection, just becoming a complete back.

That's part of the reason he returned. He wants to be the best possible football player he can be. I'm so excited for him to show everyone what he can do. He's got great character and is a leader.

https://gostanford.com/news/2018/8/17/football-full-arsenal.aspx?utm_source=fb-organic&utm_medium=commpost_2018-08-17_1B2B3C&utm_campaign=football_season_preview__

RE: Doing some dot-connecting - OutsiderFan - 08-19-2018

Even if Love is involved more in the passing game, the 2018 Stanford offense is much more than just him. There are just too many talented pass catching options that must be used, and Scarlett is a pretty good #2 who the coaches trust. No way Love rushes for 2,000 yards in 2018.

RE: Doing some dot-connecting - Goose - 08-19-2018

I think there is no question that Stanford should have a more capable offense in 2018. How much effect that will have on strategy remains to be seen. What I hope for is that the greater capability means that we can avoid bad down and distance situations. Love may not get as many touches, but the ones he does get will be more effective because the defense has been forced to back off a bit.
We really don't yet exactly know what Costello brings to the table. We are all expecting at least enough that we can convert a third and 5 occasionally. If Costello is better than that, and most of us think he is, it can put the opposing defense in a real bind. Love may still get his 2K yards, but on fewer carries. I do not expect Shaw to markedly change the run-pass balance from last year. As others have pointed out on this board, we actually passed more than in some previous years. It was unfortunately true that we didn't complete as many as we hoped for. That is what should change this year. Those passes will be completed much more often, and that will significantly change the game in our favor. It will also be true that one negative play will not put us in a big hole, because we will know we can throw the ball efficiently.We keep the ball more often, get more attempts, therefore get more yards and more points. So, just more of the same, but with greater success!

RE: Doing some dot-connecting - lex24 - 08-19-2018

My questions for the offense going into the season (in order of importance)

1. Center. If Burkett is out a while how big a drop off. We know how dominant the o-line can be. But that changes if the center is iffy.

2 Costello. How accurate is he? It is the most important physical part of the position. I don’t have a great read on his accuracy. His pct was not good. (Stanford as a team was last in the Pac 12). But that can be somewhat deceiving. As part is dependent on pct of downfield throws. So many teams with spreads throw a ton of “long handoffs”. But being able to consistently complete short passes is important. The other aspect is being able to hit receivers in stride. YAC was non existent last year.

3. Speed on the outside. JJ and Irwin are both excellent receivers. Irwin is a possession guy. JJ uses his height effectively on deep throws. But neither are Rector like deep threats. Wedington should be a slot receiver and hopeful a YAC guy. But who stretches the defense?