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Women's Tennis '18-'19 Preview Vol. I: Preseason Rankings - Printable Version

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RE: Women's Tennis '18-'19 Preview Vol. I: Preseason Rankings - oldalum - 10-07-2018

and Gordon lost in singles consolation semis to the eventual winner, so after her first-round hiccup she ended up okay.
and Shin lost to the eventual main bracket winner.

and both our doubles teams lost to the KU team that is obviously good. I figured out how KU got to be so good in W tennis: 6 out of 8 are international students, including both doubles players and the singles player (Rychagova) who beat us. I think I'm going to have to adopt a more principled stand about this: I have no objection to the use of international ringers in US College women's tennis, as long as they're OUR international ringers.

RE: Women's Tennis '18-'19 Preview Vol. I: Preseason Rankings - ColoradoTree - 10-08-2018

So, now that those first fall tournaments are done, let's do a quick assessment of how each player did, using the admittedly imperfect early ITA rankings as a proxy:

Singles:

Michaela Gordon:
Ranked: #10
Defeated: #32, #40
Lost to: #3, #60

Melissa Lord:
Ranked: #13
Defeated: #40
Lost to: #6

Caroline Lampl:
Ranked: #47
Defeated: No one
Lost to: #26, #67

Emily Arbuthnott:
Ranked #24
Defeated: #14
Lost to: #8

Janice Shin:
Ranked: #56
Defeated: #61
Lost to: #35 (who went on to win the tournament)

Emma Higuchi:
Ranked: #63
Defeated: #72 (Purdue's Ambrosio, who had been having a great fall, beating #5 Gabriela Knutson (Syracuse) en route to the Milwaukee Tennis Classic title, which clinched her a spot at Fall Nationals)
Lost to: #65 (who I think is pretty underranked)

Niluka Madurawe:
Unranked
Defeated: 5 players, including Wisconsin's Anna Makarova (6-2, 7-6) and Cal's Maria Smith (6-1, 6-3 per the ITA vendor site, 6-1, 6-2 per the official Stanford site). Makarova is a sophomore transfer from James Madison, where she was all-conference as a freshman and played mostly at 3 but also at 1 and 2. She should play somewhere from 4-6 for Wisconsin this year. 
Lost to: no one

Sara Choy:
Unranked
Defeated: USF's #1, Emily Maxfield (7-6, 6-4), and Wisconsin freshman Ava Markham (6-4, 6-0). Markham should play somewhere from 4-6 for Wisconsin this year. 
Lost to: Cal's #4, Maria Smith (6-2, 6-3)

Doubles:

Arbuthnott/Gordon:
Ranked: #3
Defeated: #16, unranked pair from Duke (but like the KU team, this is misleading, because half of this team is ranked #1 in doubles, but Duke is using different pairings), #9
Lost to: Khmelnitckaia/Koch (KU, who ended up winning the tournament, but were unranked because the rankings include different pairings of Kansas players)

Lampl/Yee:
Ranked: #17
Defeated: #16, #6, #7 (the defending national champions), #24
Lost to: Khmelnitckaia/Koch in the final

Analysis:

Just an outstanding doubles performance, with both Lampl/Yee and Arbuthnott/Gordon qualifying for ITA Fall Nationals in Surprise, AZ from November 8-11. Both teams lost just once each, and to the eventual tournament champion. As oldalum noted, having two top doubles teams (with an incredibly dangerous Lord/Shin at #3, presumably) should see us win the doubles point more often against top teams. Last year, we found ourselves fighting back from one point down against UCLA (twice), Vanderbilt (twice), UNC (in the NCAA R16), and Duke (NCAA semis). (To be fair, we also took the doubles point while losing the match versus Texas and Florida.) But if Lampl/Yee continue to improve, then we shouldn't need nearly as many comebacks. 

In singles, I'm happy with how Arbuthnott and Madurawe did, content with the performances of Lord, Shin, Higuchi, and Choy, and a little down on how Gordon and Lampl did, though I like how Gordon shook off a really disappointing first round result (to a player she had no business losing to) and took care of business before falling to one of the best players in the country. For whatever reason, Lampl seems to thrive more in the team environment, and her individual tournament performances don't quite measure up to the standard she sets for herself in dual match play (or, as we saw this week, in doubles). So, I don't put a ton of stock in her fall performance, as we know who she'll be come spring. 
Arbuthnott showed great fight in pulling off one upset over Clemson's Leduc (a player who beat Arbuthnott 6-1, 6-2 in last year's ITA Fall Nationals) and giving Georgia's Jokic a challenge (Arbuthnott beat Jokic in last year's ITA Fall Nationals, but Jokic has improved considerably since then). Higuchi beat a similarly ranked player having a great fall in the first round (and in a scoreline I like to see, 7-6, 6-1, signifying overcoming a tough fight and taking control of the match), and lost a great three-setter to Florida's Ida Jarlskog, who was the NCAA All-Tournament Team selection from the #4 singles slot last year. And while I think Shin is too good a player to only get 3 games off of anyone at this level, the sting of that result is lessened by that player (Gonzaga's Sophie Whittle) going on to win the whole darn thing. As a note, Whittle has taken the proverbial leap, as last year she lost 6-0, 6-4 to Arbuthnott at Northwest Regionals. Beating Michigan's Lommer is a nice result, too. As for Lord, I would have liked to see a closer result versus KU's Rychagova, but it's just the first tournament of the year. 

With a healthy Lord and a full offseason and fall season, don't be surprised if Lord claims the #1 spot in the lineup, with Gordon shifting down to #2. That's how I figured it would go last year before Lord got hurt, but if Gordon has also improved, then she might be too tough to knock off.
Up next:

In just a couple of weeks (October 19-23), the ITA Northwest Regional Championships will kick off from Stanford, with the singles finalists and the doubles champions claiming a spot at ITA Fall Nationals in November. Arbuthnott/Gordon and Lampl/Yee have already booked a spot on the doubles side of the draw, where Arbuthnott/Gordon are the defending champions. Last year, Arbuthnott/Gordon lost in the Northwest Regionals semifinals, but because both qualified for Fall Nationals in singles, they were added as an alternate due to injury, and then they went on to win the whole darn thing. 

On the singles side of the draw, Arbuthnott and Gordon will be eager to claim another ticket to Fall Nationals.  Last year, after meeting in the final of Northwest Regionals, both Gordon and Arbuthnott made it to the Round of 16 of Fall Nationals, with Gordon losing to UT's Bianca Turati (who would hold the #1 ranking for much of the year), 6-2, 7-6, and Arbuthnott losing 6-1, 6-2 to Clemson's Marie Leduc. 

It was an all-Stanford set of semifinals at Northwest Regionals last year, with Arbuthnott beating Lord 7-6, 6-4 and Gordon beating Shin 6-1, 6-0. But that will be tough to repeat, with a much-improved Whittle from Gonzaga in the draw in addition to top 50 players from Washington (#9 Stacey Fung and #25 Vanessa Wong), Washington State (#17 Michaela Bayerlova), Cal (#28 Julia Rosenqvist, #29 Anna Bright, and #34 Olivia Hauger), and Oregon (#42 Shweta Sangwan). 

In terms of qualifying for Fall Nationals in singles, the rankings of Gordon, Lord, and Arbuthnott mean they might make it even without making the finals of Northwest Regionals, as there are 20 at-large selections to that tournament, and they're selected from a list in order after averaging preseason ranking, UTR, and the unpublished ITA ranking as of October 24. But in order to even be eligible, you need to have reached the Round of 16 at ITA All-Americans (which Lord and Arbuthnott both did) or the regional quarterfinals. Thus, Lord and Arbuthnott are likely already good to go, while Gordon needs to reach the quarterfinals at Northwest Regionals to feel pretty confident in a spot. Remember that most of the top 20 either has already qualified through how they did at All-Americans or will qualify through the regional route, so those three would be near the top of the at-large list and comfortably in the top 20. 

(For example, the #2, #3, #6, #7, #8, #12, and #16 players have already qualified for Fall Nationals by making the quarters at All-Americans or by winning the Oracle ITA Masters earlier this fall (that was Miami's Perez-Somarriba, who has qualified twice over by also making the consolation final at All-Americans, meaning there will be a 21st at-large bid). So Gordon just has 4 players in front of her, Lord has 6 (including Gordon), and Arbuthnott has 16 in front of her (including Gordon and Lord) in the competition for those at-large slots. Last year, Lord qualified for an at-large slot but didn't take it, as after Northwest Regionals she didn't play again until March 28 vs. UCSB.)

RE: Women's Tennis '18-'19 Preview Vol. I: Preseason Rankings - ColoradoTree - 10-08-2018

(10-07-2018, 10:40 PM)oldalum Wrote:  and Gordon lost in singles consolation semis to the eventual winner, so after her first-round hiccup she ended up okay.
and Shin lost to the eventual main bracket winner.

and both our doubles teams lost to the KU team that is obviously good. I figured out how KU got to be so good in W tennis:  6 out of 8 are international students, including both doubles players and the singles player (Rychagova) who beat us. I think I'm going to have to adopt a more principled stand about this: I have no objection to the use of international ringers in US College women's tennis, as long as they're OUR international ringers.

Yeah, we've seen this throughout college tennis, and it's the only reason why the Big 12, in particular, has any decent teams. You see it in all conferences, but among the top teams in the country, it's those Big 12 teams (and the non-traditional tennis powers from the ACC and SEC, plus competitive mid-majors) that fill a majority of their rosters from international players.  Stanford, by contrast, rarely gets international players, with Carol Zhao (Canada) and Emily Arbuthnott (England) as recent exceptions that come to mind. But Zhao barely counts, because it's Canada and she'd move in many of the same U.S. tournament-based recruiting circles. Florida has come to rely on international players more recently, and so has Georgia, another traditional tennis power. But it's the upstart tennis teams from the Big 12, ACC, and SEC that have had the most success with international players. Here's a look at this year's preseason individual Top 25, with U.S.-based players in bold, and with reference to a player's school and home country/state:

1. Bianca Turati (UT/Italy)
2. Makenna Jones (UNC/South Carolina)
3. Estela Perez-Somarriba (Miami/Spain)
4. Ashley Lahey (Pepperdine/California) (though she's one of just two Americans on the roster)
5. Gabriela Knutson (Syracuse/Czech Republic)
6. Anastasia Rychagova (Kansas/Russia)
7. Fernanda Contreras (Vanderbilt/Texas)
8. Katarina Jokic (Georgia/Bosnia)
9. Stacey Fung (UW/Canada)
10. Michaela Gordon (Stanford/California)
11. Carla Touly (FSU/France)
12. Kelly Chen (Duke/California)
13. Melissa Lord (Stanford, Connecticut)
14. Marie-Alexandre Leduc (Clemson/Canada)
15. Jada Hart (UCLA/California)
16. Emma Davis (Wake Forest/Massachusetts)
17. Michaela Bayerlova (Wazzu/Czech Republic)
18. Kate Fahey (Michigan/New Jersey)
19. Alle Sanford (UNC, Ohio)
20. Marianna Petrei (Idaho/Italy)
21. Anna Turati (UT/Italy)
22. Rosie Johanson (UVA/Canada)
23. Veronica Miroshnichenko (Loyola Marymount/Russia)
24. Emily Arbuthnott (Stanford/UK)
25. Vanessa Wong (UW/Canada)

And looking at the top teams, here are the final top 25 teams from last year since we don't have preseason rankings yet, including the number of international players in parentheses on this year's rosters. Where the roster size is larger than 8--women's tennis is an 8-scholarship headcount sport--you can safely assume the international players are scholarship athletes while the walk-ons come from the U.S.

1. Stanford (1)
2. Vanderbilt (1)
3. UNC (0)
4. Duke (1)
5. Georgia Tech (4/7)
6. Texas (8/10)
7. Georgia (5/9)
8. Ole Miss (5/9)
9. Texas Tech (5/10)
10. UCLA (1)
11. Florida (3/6)
12. South Carolina (4/8)
13. Pepperdine (4/6)
14. Oklahoma State (4/8)
15. Northwestern (5/9)
16. Florida State (7/9)
17. Miami (6/7)
18. Kansas (6/8)
19. Tulsa (a perfect 8/8)
20. Illinois (2/9)
21. Michigan (3/9)
22. UCF (8/9)
23. Virginia (2/9)
24. Auburn (2/9)
25. Baylor (5/6)

RE: Women's Tennis '18-'19 Preview Vol. I: Preseason Rankings - oldalum - 10-08-2018

Not surprisingly, I think this team data shows a decent relationship between rigor of admissions standards and percent of team that is U.S. origin.
I've revised my new highly principled principle accordingly: I have no problem with international college women's tennis player ringers as long as they are as academically elite as their tennis game is.

RE: Women's Tennis '18-'19 Preview Vol. I: Preseason Rankings - ColoradoTree - 10-08-2018

Quick note: next year's men's and women's ITA All-American Championships have been awarded to the University of Tulsa (where the men have been for years). So, we'll have the benefit of live streaming and live scoring, unlike this year.

RE: Women's Tennis '18-'19 Preview Vol. I: Preseason Rankings - oldalum - 10-08-2018

great for us fans, but I imagine most college tennis players would prefer the trip to Malibu!