Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - Printable Version

Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - Printable Version

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RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - Hulk01 - 09-17-2018

This might become a good Oregon team, but they haven't been one so far this year.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - stupac2 - 09-17-2018

(09-16-2018, 09:38 PM)CTcard Wrote:
(09-16-2018, 09:27 PM)lex24 Wrote: Stanford has to be able to run Sat. If they can’t they will get beat. Maybe badly. I don’t think, however, it can be the Gaffney 4 times 40 show.

I am wondering what you consider "able to run", and why you think it particularly important for this game?

Is the output vs $C able to run? That was 29 carries for 159 yds, or 5.5 yds/carry
Is the output vs Davis able to run? That was 31 carries for 149 yds, or 4.8 yds/carry (sacks removed)

Is the particular need for the run game because you think Oregon is the best offense we will face? Or that the defense is most likely to get worn down vs Oregon?

The problem here isn't our average, it's our median. Against Davis our median run was for 3 yards, which is usually an unsuccessful play. Against Davis! At home! Sure, Speights busted off a couple of nice long-yardage run, but we had entirely too many unsuccessful runs and that kills us. That's what's concerning here.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - Renaissance Man - 09-17-2018

Not discounting the effect of Autzen, or the potential impact of officiating, which had a big impact in the USC (hurt by officials) and ASU (helped by officials) games this weekend, but I have watched Oregon twice, and I think that Jelks is the only player on their roster who would start for Stanford. I think we are better in all facets.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - BostonCard - 09-17-2018

I wound up predicting 20-17 Stanford. I'm still not 100% sold on our defense against a dynamic and balanced offense (Oregon is averaging 214 yards per game rushing and 289 yards per game passing); on the other hand I don't think Oregon has seen a defense like ours. I am waiting for our offense to get untracked, and I'm not sure Autzen will be the best place to do it. But I am hopeful the team busts out of its slump.

BC

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - martyup - 09-17-2018

Last year it was SDSU. Two years ago it was Northwestern. Hopefully Davis was our let down game this season. If so, we should be fine.

If you think about the circumstances surrounding the Davis game, it's understandable why we under-achieved. No sudents, FCS opponent, early kickoff, no crowd, no Love, etc. Sloppy, poor execution, penalties, but we win 30-3 (excluding garbage time TD).

Time to focus, travel north, and kick some duck butts!

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - washingtonismoney - 09-17-2018

(09-17-2018, 11:07 AM)martyup Wrote: Last year it was SDSU. Two years ago it was Northwestern. Hopefully Davis was our let down game this season. If so, we should be fine.

If you think about the circumstances surrounding the Davis game, it's understandable why we under-achieved. No sudents, FCS opponent, early kickoff, no crowd, no Love, etc. Sloppy, poor execution, penalties, but we win 30-3 (excluding garbage time TD).

Time to focus, travel north, and kick some duck butts!

I'm of two minds on this, as you can probably predict. The optimistic side is, "look, Costello temporarily forgot to play football for a quarter. Aside from that -- and filtering out garbage time -- the team was 23-3 in two quarters, which is basically what you'd expect a top-10, top-15 team to do against FCS competition."

The realistic side is, "stop throwing out data you don't like."

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - OutsiderFan - 09-17-2018

Serious line movement today. Now Stanford -2. Here's a simplistic assessment of this game:

- Oregon has played nobody of any consequence and as a result has not been tested at all.
- While Stanford hasn't played great, they have played far better teams than Oregon has.
- Oregon hasn't faced a good defense and Stanford has a good defense.
- Herbert has not performed well against good defenses.
- You could say Stanford hasn't played a great offense, but Oregon only scored 35 against SJS and gave up 22. WSU shut them out.
- It's Stanford's first road game and Oregon's first conference game.

All things considered, go with the better defense and more tested team.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - stupac2 - 09-17-2018

Someone else mentioned it so I looked it up, and Costello hasn't yet won a road game. Partly that's because he's barely played on the road, his only real game last year was @WSU, which was a tough one. But it's another reason to be nervous. Last year our home/away split was enormous, so let's hope we remember how to travel.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - BostonCard - 09-17-2018

(09-17-2018, 11:54 AM)stupac2 Wrote: Someone else mentioned it so I looked it up, and Costello hasn't yet won a road game. Partly that's because he's barely played on the road, his only real game last year was @WSU, which was a tough one. But it's another reason to be nervous. Last year our home/away split was enormous, so let's hope we remember how to travel.

He's also 0-2 in neutral games (losses at the Pac-12 conference championship against USC and in the Alamo Bowl against TCU). The former was closer to a home game, while the latter was closer to an away game.

BC

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - d4cohn - 09-17-2018

I went back and watched film from Boise State's dismantling of Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl (only formidable opponent that the Ducks have faced since the start of the Cristobal era, and return of Herbert at the end of last year). I focused on the offensive side of the ball for Oregon (so our defense) only. Here were my thoughts:

1) Oregon's young backs have a lot of speed on bubble screens and fly sweeps. Yes, we have seen the formula from Oregon for years now, but even the best plans fail if we cannot execute the gameplan. Boise State had a ton of speed in their ILB, which gave Oregon fits in several aspects throughout that game. Not sure we have the same level of speed in LB core.

2) Oregon could not execute an inside run (aside from one out of six or seven tries) against BSU. Just could not get push, and the D-line for Boise had great penetration throughout. In that regard, I expect Mike Williams to have another big game.

3) Herbert makes terrible decisions (Browning-esque) when under pressure to avoid sacks. Led to a pick-six for Boise, among other bad throws.

4) Herbert is not Mariota in terms of QB speed, but could cause problems if our pass rush breaks down enough. Otherwise, he didn't appear to be that great of a runner.

5) Oregon commits a ton of penalties, and didn't have a lot of discipline in that department all of last year (let's see if they have really improved since)

6) RT was a major liability, and multiple edge blitzes rounding RT got home for sacks. Oregon OL seemed more stout on pressure up the middle (only one blitz in garbage time at end of the game got home), but the outside pressure consistently forced premature throws, incompletions and otherwise strained the Oregon offense. In that regard, that matches up well with the great play we have seen from Alferi and Toohill at OLB so far.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - pcgoode - 09-17-2018

Last time the Ducks beat a top 25 team was vs the Utes in 2016, and they only did so with a TD with two seconds remaining. This is Justin Herbert's only win vs a top 25 team. I would also note that Herbert is completing just under 57% of his passes against some weak competition this season.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - Bruce Wang - 09-17-2018

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RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - Austroturf - 09-17-2018

(09-17-2018, 11:54 AM)stupac2 Wrote: Someone else mentioned it so I looked it up, and Costello hasn't yet won a road game. Partly that's because he's barely played on the road, his only real game last year was @WSU, which was a tough one. But it's another reason to be nervous. Last year our home/away split was enormous, so let's hope we remember how to travel.

This is true. But as you mention, Costello only had one true road game as a starter; and other factors (most notably play-calling) conspired to neuter his debut as Stanford's new QB (after Chryst's near disaster in Corvallis). The other two losses are unfortunate, but have little to do with venue. USC had Darnold and probably was the better team in the Pac-12 championship. Levi's stadium had little to do with the outcome.

And the Alamo Bowl. This one still stings. Here, it was the defense that cratered during the second half. Yes, the last series with Costello under center was a disaster; and there were a few other instances in which Costello failed to deliver (like when he oversaw Parkinson alone in the endzone and threw to Kaden Smith in double coverage); but otherwise, his performance was fine. For some bizarre reason, Stanford teams do not shine in road venues (except the Rose Bowl); but I don't think Costello can be implicated in this trend.

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - SamuelMcF - 09-17-2018

(09-17-2018, 12:36 PM)d4cohn Wrote: 5) Oregon commits a ton of penalties, and didn't have a lot of discipline in that department all of last year (let's see if they have really improved since)

Penalties...
Oregon: 3 for 35, 5 for 55, and 6 for 59 so far this season.
Stanford: 3 for 20, 7 for 50, 10 for 64 (pretty sure a majority of these were holding. yikes.)

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - lex24 - 09-17-2018

Because I don’t think they can beat Oregon in a track meet. Slow the game down. Tempo key vs Oregon. Keep their offense off the field. To do that you need to run effectively.

Specifics - 200 yards. At least 4.5 a carry.

(09-16-2018, 09:38 PM)CTcard Wrote:
(09-16-2018, 09:27 PM)lex24 Wrote: Stanford has to be able to run Sat. If they can’t they will get beat. Maybe badly. I don’t think, however, it can be the Gaffney 4 times 40 show.

I am wondering what you consider "able to run", and why you think it particularly important for this game?

Is the output vs $C able to run? That was 29 carries for 159 yds, or 5.5 yds/carry
Is the output vs Davis able to run? That was 31 carries for 149 yds, or 4.8 yds/carry (sacks removed)

Is the particular need for the run game because you think Oregon is the best offense we will face? Or that the defense is most likely to get worn down vs Oregon?

Because I don’t think they can beat Oregon in a track meet. Slow the game down. Tempo key vs Oregon. Keep their offense off the field. To do that you need to run effectively.

Specifics - 200 yards. At least 4.5 a carry.

(09-16-2018, 09:38 PM)CTcard Wrote:
(09-16-2018, 09:27 PM)lex24 Wrote: Stanford has to be able to run Sat. If they can’t they will get beat. Maybe badly. I don’t think, however, it can be the Gaffney 4 times 40 show.

I am wondering what you consider "able to run", and why you think it particularly important for this game?

Is the output vs $C able to run? That was 29 carries for 159 yds, or 5.5 yds/carry
Is the output vs Davis able to run? That was 31 carries for 149 yds, or 4.8 yds/carry (sacks removed)

Is the particular need for the run game because you think Oregon is the best offense we will face? Or that the defense is most likely to get worn down vs Oregon?

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - JJJ - 09-18-2018

(09-17-2018, 11:07 AM)martyup Wrote: Time to focus, travel north, and kick some duck butts!

Interestingly, "duck butt" is a Korean phrase for a shapely derriere. Let's indeed kick some!

http://www.hawaiibusiness.com/duck-what-duck-butt-thats-what/

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon - BostonCard - 09-18-2018

Great moments in the Stanford - Oregon series (h/t to the Stanford Football twitter feed):

[tweet]https://twitter.com/StanfordFball/status/1042184483594625024[/tweet]

Toby Gerhart for 223 yards in 2009
[tweet]https://twitter.com/StanfordFball/status/1042184883945267201[/tweet]

Jordan Williamson kicks the game winner and Stanford wins the Pac-12
[tweet]https://twitter.com/StanfordFball/status/1042185319607558145[/tweet]

The winning continues in 2013
[tweet]https://twitter.com/StanfordFball/status/1042185775754838016[/tweet]

2017, the year of the rabbit
[tweet]https://twitter.com/StanfordFball/status/1042186108199530497[/tweet]

BC

RE: Stanford (+1.5) @ Oregon. WE COVER - ADPinWDC - 09-18-2018

I am in for TREES 37, DUCKS 20.
* Looking at the SJST film on Pac12N, their OLine did not move Spartans much, and their D-Line is soft.
They play some 2-4-5 like we do, and look more like SDSU: agile quick LBs, but they lack heft up front.
==> Our run game gets healthy on Oregon. And the PassPro needs to pick up the blitzing LBs.
* Our TEs and JJAW will be open all day. SJSU has a stud TE in Oliver, and he feasted on Ducks.
==> Play action will yield first downs; their DBs cannot stay with our array of talent.
* Dial up the blitz packages; We cannot rush 3 and let Herbert pick his receiver. Get into his duckbill, early.
They have some skill players: But Herbert is not Mariotta; and Royce Freeman is gone; so is D.Thomas and LaMichael James.
* Without Love last week: Speights got good reps. I want to see more of Heimuli flattening ducks.
* Put Michael Wilson back for punts; he posted bonus yardage. Justus Woods showed a little flash in garbage time.
* KJC isn't a rookie anymore -- I think he gets it together on the road. Autzen gets real quiet if we score first.
With disciplined Shaw, I think ESPN Game Day is a bigger distraction for Oregon than us. It's their pond.