I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed!

I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - Printable Version

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RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - BostonCard - 11-04-2018

The discussion about Shaw reminds me of the discussion about Mike Montgomery in the late 90’s. People used to love to complain about Montgomery and about how he couldn’t get us past the next hump, how his teams underperformed in thournament, etc. what happened to the basketball team in the aftermath of his departure is a cautionary tale about not taking things for granted.

Shaw is not hard to root for, period. He’s not by any measure perfect, and there are some good analyses here. But let’s keep things in perspective. Because otherwise we may not gain that perspective when the football equivalent of Johnny Dawkins comes around.

BC

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - d4cohn - 11-04-2018

(11-04-2018, 12:26 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The discussion about Shaw reminds me of the discussion about Mike Montgomery in the late 90’s. People used to love to complain about Montgomery and about how he couldn’t get us past the next hump, how his teams underperformed in thournament, etc. what happened to the basketball team in the aftermath of his departure is a cautionary tale about not taking things for granted.

Shaw is not hard to root for, period. He’s not by any measure perfect, and there are some good analyses here. But let’s keep things in perspective. Because otherwise we may not gain that perspective when the football equivalent of Johnny Dawkins comes around.

BC

+1000 on your point. But we have actually experienced worse than the football equivalent of JD in football in the last 15-20 years: Buddy and Walt. It really says something about the strength of our program that a possible 8-4 season, against an even year hard schedule, could prompt such "sky is falling" reactions. This would have been unfathomable in 2005/2006.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - martyup - 11-04-2018

When I first heard that Love was coming back, I had high hopes for this season. I am disappointed. However, let's keep it in perspective. We came within 3 points of the 8th ranked team in the CFP. We are not a bad football team.

Thank God we have a coach that knows how to overcome adversity. I am not so filled with hubris that I think I know how to guide this team to wins better than David Shaw. Also, I am not ignorant of the fact that hindsight is 20/20. Where is the praise for a coaching staff that righted the ship and guided the Cardinal to a 24 - 6 second half against the Huskies?

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - Austroturf - 11-04-2018

(11-04-2018, 01:39 PM)martyup Wrote: When I first heard that Love was coming back, I had high hopes for this season. I am disappointed. However, let's keep it in perspective. We came within 3 points of the 8th ranked team in the CFP. We are not a bad football team.

Thank God we have a coach that knows how to overcome adversity. I am not so filled with hubris that I think I know how to guide this team to wins better than David Shaw. Also, I am not ignorant of the fact that hindsight is 20/20. Where is the praise for a coaching staff that righted the ship and guided the Cardinal to a 24 - 6 second half against the Huskies?

I am withholding praise because it was that same coaching staff that prepped the team and put together the game plan that saw us fall into a 21-0 hole in the first 17:40 minutes of the game. Also, our comeback was partially aided by conservative play-calling on the part of the Huskies (Coach Turtleson at the helm). Finally, we made some key mistakes down the stretch that hampered our comeback (questionable play-calls near the goal-line, shoddy clock management). Losing 27-23 to the Huskies in Seattle should not have surprised anyone and is, as such, no shame; but the way we lost does not elicit praise for the coaching staff, at least not from me. It was overall a very checkered performance, with some moments of brilliance and a lot of befuddlement. That is not praiseworthy.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - OutsiderFan - 11-04-2018

Isn't it interesting that Harbaugh now has Michigan where he had Stanford, and Stanford is now set to have its second not 10 win season in a row, and third in four seasons. The trend isn't good. If Shaw doesn't make some staff changes to bring new ideas in to strengthen his team, he's not going to be getting back to 10-win territory any time soon.

Right now, I feel there is not enough diversity in the entire football program. It's a bit incenstuous and stale. Frankly, Shaw needs to give up play calling duties and failing that, hire someone specifically to do game management because he is terrible at it. I said a couple weeks ago I would bring in brand new coordinators, and that includes replacing Anderson as DC.

I listened to the last drive of UW game on the radio. Reese and Husak were out of their collective minds in disbelief about how foolish Stanford was being on that final drive. That should never, ever happen, and is totally inexcusable. You have to go up and spike the ball to stop the clock, then do any subbing with a stopped game clock. For guys who are suppose to be smart, Stanford football players and coaches sure make a lot of dumb decisions in games. Shaw has to be better.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - d4cohn - 11-04-2018

(11-04-2018, 02:23 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Isn't it interesting that Harbaugh now has Michigan where he had Stanford, and Stanford is now set to have its second not 10 win season in a row, and third in four seasons. The trend isn't good. If Shaw doesn't make some staff changes to bring new ideas in to strengthen his team, he's not going to be getting back to 10-win territory any time soon.

Or he could get back to 10 wins next season when he gets Oregon, UW, Notre Dame, Cal and UCLA all at home, and substitutes UA and Colorado for Arizona State and Utah.

In every odd year since Coach Shaw took over in 2011, Stanford has either won the division (and in 2013, 2015 the conference title too), or in 2011, put up an 11 win Fiesta Bowl season.

We have only won the division/conference title in an even year once (in 2012, when the conference was more strongly defined by the Oregon/Stanford rivalry, and the conference as a whole was far less competitive).

If we struggle against an easier schedule next year, I think concern might be more warranted. However, there has been a pretty consistent pattern since 2012 in even seasons that the team has taken a step back (if on account of schedule alone).

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - winflop - 11-04-2018

(11-04-2018, 04:21 PM)d4cohn Wrote:
(11-04-2018, 02:23 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Isn't it interesting that Harbaugh now has Michigan where he had Stanford, and Stanford is now set to have its second not 10 win season in a row, and third in four seasons. The trend isn't good. If Shaw doesn't make some staff changes to bring new ideas in to strengthen his team, he's not going to be getting back to 10-win territory any time soon.

Or he could get back to 10 wins next season when he gets Oregon, UW, Notre Dame, Cal and UCLA all at home, and substitutes UA and Colorado for Arizona State and Utah.

In every odd year since Coach Shaw took over in 2011, Stanford has either won the division (and in 2013, 2015 the conference title too), or in 2011, put up an 11 win Fiesta Bowl season.

We have only won the division/conference title in an even year once (in 2012, when the conference was more strongly defined by the Oregon/Stanford rivalry, and the conference as a whole was far less competitive).

If we struggle against an easier schedule next year, I think concern might be more warranted. However, there has been a pretty consistent pattern since 2012 in even seasons that the team has taken a step back (if on account of schedule alone).

Of course 2017 was not part of this analysis...

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - SamuelMcF - 11-04-2018

(11-04-2018, 04:32 PM)winflop Wrote:
(11-04-2018, 04:21 PM)d4cohn Wrote: Or he could get back to 10 wins next season when he gets Oregon, UW, Notre Dame, Cal and UCLA all at home, and substitutes UA and Colorado for Arizona State and Utah.

In every odd year since Coach Shaw took over in 2011, Stanford has either won the division (and in 2013, 2015 the conference title too), or in 2011, put up an 11 win Fiesta Bowl season.

We have only won the division/conference title in an even year once (in 2012, when the conference was more strongly defined by the Oregon/Stanford rivalry, and the conference as a whole was far less competitive).

If we struggle against an easier schedule next year, I think concern might be more warranted. However, there has been a pretty consistent pattern since 2012 in even seasons that the team has taken a step back (if on account of schedule alone).

Of course 2017 was not part of this analysis...

"In every odd year since Coach Shaw took over in 2011, Stanford has...won the division" includes 2017.

Reading comprehension?

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - winflop - 11-04-2018

(11-04-2018, 04:37 PM)SamuelMcF Wrote:
(11-04-2018, 04:32 PM)winflop Wrote:
(11-04-2018, 04:21 PM)d4cohn Wrote: Or he could get back to 10 wins next season when he gets Oregon, UW, Notre Dame, Cal and UCLA all at home, and substitutes UA and Colorado for Arizona State and Utah.

In every odd year since Coach Shaw took over in 2011, Stanford has either won the division (and in 2013, 2015 the conference title too), or in 2011, put up an 11 win Fiesta Bowl season.

We have only won the division/conference title in an even year once (in 2012, when the conference was more strongly defined by the Oregon/Stanford rivalry, and the conference as a whole was far less competitive).

If we struggle against an easier schedule next year, I think concern might be more warranted. However, there has been a pretty consistent pattern since 2012 in even seasons that the team has taken a step back (if on account of schedule alone).

Of course 2017 was not part of this analysis...

"In every odd year since Coach Shaw took over in 2011, Stanford has...won the division" includes 2017.

Reading comprehension?

Division titles don't matter. Conference titles matter. Rose Bowls matter.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - SamuelMcF - 11-04-2018

(11-04-2018, 04:57 PM)winflop Wrote: Division titles don't matter. Conference titles matter. Rose Bowls matter.

Agreed.

2017 was still part of the analysis.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - d4cohn - 11-04-2018

(11-04-2018, 04:57 PM)winflop Wrote: Division titles don't matter. Conference titles matter. Rose Bowls matter.

Can't play for the conference title unless you win the division title. And we lost the Pac-12 Championship Game against the favored (arguably heavily) Trojans by 3. With a chance to convert a 4th and goal at the 1 that could have been the deciding points.

Also, every year except last (and probably this year too) winning the North has essentially meant winning the conference. You get out of the North, you are generally winning the CC.

lex24 - lex24 - 11-04-2018

I will say this until I’m blue in the face - this has been Stanford’s best era of football in our lifetimes (I’m 60 and have rooted for Stanford all my life). The key was a very good to great defense and a dominant power running game. It was not sexy. But it was efficient. Shaw has and had his limitations as a play caller. But the scheme and the philosophy worked. The problem is they don’t have a front line on offense and a front seven on defense to control games anymore. I don’t think Stanford will ever “outspeed” teams. But they could and did overpower them. They can’t anymore.

I’m not sure where Shaw goes from here. But I want him to recruit to and go back to the power game so many hate. IMO that gives them the best chance to win. He needs to build more depth in the line and the front seven. I don’t care how good your skill players are, if you can’t control the LOS you are in trouble.

Ok. He’s had three in 8 years. They had 3 in the previous 40.

(11-04-2018, 05:33 PM)SamuelMcF Wrote:
(11-04-2018, 04:57 PM)winflop Wrote: Division titles don't matter. Conference titles matter. Rose Bowls matter.

Agreed.

2017 was still part of the analysis.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - ADPinWDC - 11-04-2018

CANDIDATES for OffCo ?
How about Troy Walters at NEBR (for what he did at UCF, 13-0) ?
Stanford 1999, All-Am WR. Set records.
Yeah, NEBR is 2-7 this season... SO THAT IS THE TIME TO GET HIM.
https://huskercorner.com/2018/09/26/nebraska-football-troy-walters-backups/

lex24 - lex24 - 11-04-2018

Shaw is not going to hire an OC that is philosophically on the other end of the spectrum.

(11-04-2018, 07:12 PM)ADPinWDC Wrote: CANDIDATES for OffCo ?
How about Troy Walters at NEBR (for what he did at UCF, 13-0) ?
Stanford 1999, All-Am WR. Set records.
Yeah, NEBR is 2-7 this season... SO THAT IS THE TIME TO GET HIM.
https://huskercorner.com/2018/09/26/nebraska-football-troy-walters-backups/

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - Goose - 11-04-2018

I fail to understand how a new OC is going to fix the OL. While the OC is "in charge" of the entire offense, he doesn't coach the OL directly. If we can't make holes, we can't run. If we can't run we either 1) go hire Yikes, or 2) fix the problem. What it takes to fix the problem is another question.
BTW, I actually do hope that Shaw gets Pritchard a job in the NFL and replaces him, not because I think he is bad, but rather because I think he needs to go someplace else to fill out his resume. I have been saying this for a while. Granted, Stanford is a great place, but if you want to get a more responsible job, it won't be at Stanford unless you have some credentials. Tavita needs to go get some.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - Austroturf - 11-05-2018

Just a few comments on the immediate posts above:

1) I would also like to see Shaw get back to his power-running system, as unsexy as it might be. It worked; and the entire stretch of excellence we have seen from, say, 2009 till today was built on this philosophy. When it worked, it was a thing of beauty.

2) But it isn't working today; and as I noted above, this is a combination of unsuccessful recruiting and deficient player development in key positions. We appear to have the O-line talent on paper (how we were all drooling when Little and Sarrell signed on), but still have a dysfunctional O-line (coaching? player development? toughness?). On the front seven, we appear to be thin on talent and depth, or is this also merely player development and coaching? Whatever the case, it points back to COACHING! No way around this.

3) I accept the explanations that Shaw has been better in odd years and less stellar in even years due to the home-away scheduling of strong opponents (Oregon, Washington, Notre Dame and UCLA all away in even years; in fact, we have 5 out of 9 conference games away in even years and 5 out of 9 conference games at home in odd years, so there is also that handicap in even years). But we also have a strong WSU program and USC away in odd years, so that partially offsets the advantage.

4) Also, there is no denying that we are losing more and more games as the Shaw era progresses. 2015 was a spike against the overall trend, but here is the raw tally of losses since the 2010 season (Harbaugh's last):
2010 1
2011 2
2012 2
2013 3
2014 5
2015 2
2016 3
2017 5
2018 4 and counting

In the four years from 2010 to 2013, we had a total of 8 losses (on average, two per season); in the four years from 2014 to 2017, we accumulated 15 losses (or almost twice as many and nearly 4 per season).

Yes, the conference competition has improved; but it is unlikely that all FBS programs nationwide have improved; and we had some pretty impressive final rankings in the earlier years. 2015, again, is a bit of an outlier in this trend.

2010 #4 Orange Bowl
2011 #7 Fiesta Bowl
2012 #7 Rose Bowl
2013 #11 Rose Bowl
2014 NR Foster Farms Bowl
2015 #3 Rose Bowl
2016 #12 Sun Bowl
2017 #20 Alamo Bowl
2018 NR ????

Many other key stats underscore this trend (points scored vs. points given up, total rushing yards vs. rushing yards given up, etc.). In the years from 2010-2013, we had 4 straight BCS bowls. From 2014-2017, we had one (2015); and 2018 will certainly be a low level bowl.

Whenever these details are highlighted, I hear that we should just remember the Teevens/Harris years and quit griping. Yes, 8-4 and 7-5 are still much preferable to Walt's last season at 1-11. But I believe it would be a mistake to start comparing our current situation with past epic failures; and I sure don't think Shaw is doing this. The numbers don't lie: the program relative to the competition is regressing. This is a shame; and right now, I am not confident that this will be fixed in the near future. Until the root causes are addressed and fixed, I foresee seasons of between 4 and 6 losses in our immediate future (which matches nicely with 2017 and 2018). I sure hope I am wrong; I always love it when Shaw proves me wrong. But this year he proved me wrong in the opposite direction. I predicted 9-3 at the beginning of the season. I was wrong.

I believe things have just gotten a bit too comfortable in the halls of Cardinal football. A bit of regression to the mean is normal; and the sky is certainly not falling, at least not yet. But if Shaw ever wants to sniff a top ten seasonal ranking again, big changes will be necessary, both in the coaching staff and the way we recruit. We will probably end this season unranked for the second time in five years. I hope this is not the new normal.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - JPR36 - 11-05-2018

(11-05-2018, 04:27 AM)Austroturf Wrote: Just a few comments on the immediate posts above:

1) I would also like to see Shaw get back to his power-running system, as unsexy as it might be. It worked; and the entire stretch of excellence we have seen from, say, 2009 till today was built on this philosophy. When it worked, it was a thing of beauty.

2) But it isn't working today; and as I noted above, this is a combination of unsuccessful recruiting and deficient player development in key positions. We appear to have the O-line talent on paper (how we were all drooling when Little and Sarrell signed on), but still have a dysfunctional O-line (coaching? player development? toughness?). On the front seven, we appear to be thin on talent and depth, or is this also merely player development and coaching? Whatever the case, it points back to COACHING! No way around this.

3) I accept the explanations that Shaw has been better in odd years and less stellar in even years due to the home-away scheduling of strong opponents (Oregon, Washington, Notre Dame and UCLA all away in even years; in fact, we have 5 out of 9 conference games away in even years and 5 out of 9 conference games at home in odd years, so there is also that handicap in even years). But we also have a strong WSU program and USC away in odd years, so that partially offsets the advantage.

4) Also, there is no denying that we are losing more and more games as the Shaw era progresses. 2015 was a spike against the overall trend, but here is the raw tally of losses since the 2010 season (Harbaugh's last):
2010 1
2011 2
2012 2
2013 3
2014 5
2015 2
2016 3
2017 5
2018 4 and counting

In the four years from 2010 to 2013, we had a total of 8 losses (on average, two per season); in the four years from 2014 to 2017, we accumulated 15 losses (or almost twice as many and nearly 4 per season).

Yes, the conference competition has improved; but it is unlikely that all FBS programs nationwide have improved; and we had some pretty impressive final rankings in the earlier years. 2015, again, is a bit of an outlier in this trend.

2010 #4 Orange Bowl
2011 #7 Fiesta Bowl
2012 #7 Rose Bowl
2013 #11 Rose Bowl
2014 NR Foster Farms Bowl
2015 #3 Rose Bowl
2016 #12 Sun Bowl
2017 #20 Alamo Bowl
2018 NR ????

Many other key stats underscore this trend (points scored vs. points given up, total rushing yards vs. rushing yards given up, etc.). In the years from 2010-2013, we had 4 straight BCS bowls. From 2014-2017, we had one (2015); and 2018 will certainly be a low level bowl.

Whenever these details are highlighted, I hear that we should just remember the Teevens/Harris years and quit griping. Yes, 8-4 and 7-5 are still much preferable to Walt's last season at 1-11. But I believe it would be a mistake to start comparing our current situation with past epic failures; and I sure don't think Shaw is doing this. The numbers don't lie: the program relative to the competition is regressing. This is a shame; and right now, I am not confident that this will be fixed in the near future. Until the root causes are addressed and fixed, I foresee seasons of between 4 and 6 losses in our immediate future (which matches nicely with 2017 and 2018). I sure hope I am wrong; I always love it when Shaw proves me wrong. But this year he proved me wrong in the opposite direction. I predicted 9-3 at the beginning of the season. I was wrong.

I believe things have just gotten a bit too comfortable in the halls of Cardinal football. A bit of regression to the mean is normal; and the sky is certainly not falling, at least not yet. But if Shaw ever wants to sniff a top ten seasonal ranking again, big changes will be necessary, both in the coaching staff and the way we recruit. We will probably end this season unranked for the second time in five years. I hope this is not the new normal.

Yeah, we seem to be regressing back to the days when 7-5 was considered a pretty successful season. As I posted before, the team this year seems to resemble the teams from the bad old days. Good pass, no run, and a mediocre defense. Also, when the game is on the line against a good team, you can expect them to make the plays necessary to win rather than us.
Like you said, I hope this isn't the new norm.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - winflop - 11-05-2018

(11-04-2018, 06:07 PM)d4cohn Wrote:
(11-04-2018, 04:57 PM)winflop Wrote: Division titles don't matter. Conference titles matter. Rose Bowls matter.

Can't play for the conference title unless you win the division title. And we lost the Pac-12 Championship Game against the favored (arguably heavily) Trojans by 3. With a chance to convert a 4th and goal at the 1 that could have been the deciding points.

Also, every year except last (and probably this year too) winning the North has essentially meant winning the conference. You get out of the North, you are generally winning the CC.

OK fine. Let me rephrase. I don't care about division titles. I care about conference titles and I care about NY6 bowl games. I don't care much about the rest because I now know that this program can do those things with some level of regularity with the right leadership in place. And I am starting to question whether the current leadership can continue to do that.

(11-04-2018, 09:00 PM)Goose Wrote: I fail to understand how a new OC is going to fix the OL. While the OC is "in charge" of the entire offense, he doesn't coach the OL directly. If we can't make holes, we can't run. If we can't run we either 1) go hire Yikes, or 2) fix the problem. What it takes to fix the problem is another question.
BTW, I actually do hope that Shaw gets Pritchard a job in the NFL and replaces him, not because I think he is bad, but rather because I think he needs to go someplace else to fill out his resume. I have been saying this for a while. Granted, Stanford is a great place, but if you want to get a more responsible job, it won't be at Stanford unless you have some credentials. Tavita needs to go get some.

The OL has been an unmitigated disaster this year and if Shaw is going to replace any coaches Carberry should be the first to go. But OC responsibilities like gameplanning & playcalling are a close second.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - OutsiderFan - 11-05-2018

I firmly believe Justin Wilcox is on the path to surpass Shaw if Shaw doesn't meaningfully shake things up in his program.

Already, Cal has a better defense than Stanford, and I'm not sure any Cal D starter was rated higher as a recruit than any Stanford starter on defense. Though their OL is not nearly as acclaimed as Stanford's, when you watch them play, Cal's OL seems to be a more physical and tough as a group, just from a mentality and compete level perspective. Stanford's is still superior because the talent level is greater, but the delta is not nearly as big as it should be.

Wilcox has a resolve and passion for winning that can't be hidden. He doesn't make excuses, but is honest about his team's limitations. He doesn't get defensive about anything as evidenced by the fact both his coordinators are former head coaches. And he doesn't blame his players for losing as his predecessor did. It seems Wilcox and staff are getting more than anyone can reasonably expect out of a roster that is significantly less talented than every team they play in the Pac-12 outside of maybe Oregon State. To me, Stanford is underperforming the talent on its roster, not just in losses, but in wins as well.

Minshew was 40/50 for 438, 3 TDs and 0 INTs at Stanford and the Cougs scored 41.
He was 35/51 for 334, 1 TD and 1 INT at home against Cal and the Cougs scored 19.
And, Cal beat Washington, while Stanford lost.

These realities should really concern Stanford fans, IMO.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - ADPinWDC - 11-05-2018

Good analysis above about Shaw Era. He has NOT lost to Cal.
If we lose to Cal, is that the swing point for Shaw "SHAKING IT UP"...?
Just "shaking" means little without a direction.
I believe other teams are adapting faster, rather than "sticking to a philosophy".
They have seen Shaw's tendencies and amped up their Defensive gameplans to adapt.
Shaw adapted somewhat this year by letting KJ THROW.
What does Shaw do when Stanford lands in the Vegas Bowl at 7-5? And gets thrashed by Fresno St.
How do conversations shift with recruits when we are not going to the Rose Bowl, and NDAM is in the Playoffs?
"We need to execute better?" Is that the upside?