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RE: Bowl Projection - Austroturf - 11-25-2018

(11-25-2018, 03:49 PM)Phogge Wrote:  Spiny... AP:

4 Georgia
5 Oklahoma
6 OSU

Georgia will drop if they lose to Bama.  If they beat Bama, then we have two SEC teams in the CFP (plus ND and Clemson).  The OSU-Oklahoma debate is only relevant if 1) Georgia loses to Bama 2) OSU beats Northwestern and 3) Oklahoma avenges their loss against Texas earlier in the season.

Bowl Projections - chrisk - 11-25-2018

Both ESPN projections put Stanford in the Las Vegas Bowl  12/15 vs. Fresno State or Boise State (interestingly, one projection has Cal in the Redbox Bowl vs Wisconsin and the other has Cal in the Cheez-It Bowl vs Fresno State).

CBS projection puts Stanford in Redbox Bowl (Santa Clara) 12/31 noon vs Iowa (Cal to the Las Vegas Bowl vs Boise State)

RE: Bowl Projection - Hank 91 - 11-25-2018

(11-25-2018, 03:21 PM)Hank 91 Wrote:  I'll be rooting hard for the Holiday Bowl for selfish reasons -- it's within driving distance. That would be a nice end to what's been kind of a disappointing season.

I take back my wish. Just saw that the Holiday Bowl is on New Year's Eve this year. Not ideal.

RE: Bowl Projection - Snorlax94 - 11-25-2018

Would it be crazy to think that if Washington blows out a Utah team that is not the same team they had in October (without Huntley and Moss), the Alamo Bowl could pick Stanford over Utah, in part due to the anticipated fun of a matchup with WVU?

Ed

RE: Bowl Projections - CTcard - 11-25-2018

There's a lot of questionable stuff on bowl selections in this thread. 

The conference chooses the bowl selections (as Spiny noted). 

In recent years the conference records have very closely reflected the bowl pecking order. Most exceptions are where schools asked for a flip to provide a different destination for players and fans. [My memory is that Stanford lobbied for the Sun Bowl rather than the Foster Farms Bowl in 2016.]

Minor bowl games do not make money by visiting fan bases showing up. Most of the money is TV. Participating teams must agree to purchase a bunch of tickets, which outside of some rare cases is more than their fans will buy. That hits athletic department budgets but doesn't affect the bowl's take. 

Stanford and the Foster Farms Bowl did seem to have a bit of a beef in 2014. Whatever was the reason, it wasn't that Stanford killed their meager attendance numbers. 
Foster Farms Bowl attendance (bowl changed names a few times):
2011 - 29,878  (Illinois vs UCLA)
2012 - 34,172  (Navy vs ASU)
2013 - 34,136  (BYU vs Washington)
2014 - 34,780  (Maryland vs Stanford)
2015 - 33,527  (Nabraska vs UCLA)
2016 - 27,608  (Indiana vs Utah)
2017 - 28,436  (Purdue vs Arizona)

RE: Bowl Projection - BostonCard - 11-26-2018

(11-25-2018, 10:57 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:  Would it be crazy to think that if Washington blows out a Utah team that is not the same team they had in October (without Huntley and Moss), the Alamo Bowl could pick Stanford over Utah, in part due to the anticipated fun of a matchup with WVU?

Ed

I think it is doubtful that the conference would send us there twice in a row, that we’d be picked ahead of a conference champion game loser who beat us head to head, or that they’d pass up the chance to send us to a bowl we’ve never been to before.

BC

RE: Bowl Projections - CardinalSagehen - 11-26-2018

I care most about the quality of the opponent. Ironically, the highest-quality opponent is likely to be found in the Las Vegas Bowl (MWC Champ - Boise State or Fresno State), for which we can only be selected if the Unthinkable occurs at Cal.  

So I’m hoping for Northwestern in the Holiday, although most projections are showing Iowa or Wisconsin in the Holiday or the Redbox.

RE: Bowl Projections - Austroturf - 11-26-2018

(11-25-2018, 11:57 PM)CTcard Wrote:  There's a lot of questionable stuff on bowl selections in this thread. 

The conference chooses the bowl selections (as Spiny noted). 

In recent years the conference records have very closely reflected the bowl pecking order. Most exceptions are where schools asked for a flip to provide a different destination for players and fans. [My memory is that Stanford lobbied for the Sun Bowl rather than the Foster Farms Bowl in 2016.]

Minor bowl games do not make money by visiting fan bases showing up. Most of the money is TV. Participating teams must agree to purchase a bunch of tickets, which outside of some rare cases is more than their fans will buy. That hits athletic department budgets but doesn't affect the bowl's take. 

Stanford and the Foster Farms Bowl did seem to have a bit of a beef in 2014. Whatever was the reason, it wasn't that Stanford killed their meager attendance numbers. 
Foster Farms Bowl attendance (bowl changed names a few times):
2011 - 29,878  (Illinois vs UCLA)
2012 - 34,172  (Navy vs ASU)
2013 - 34,136  (BYU vs Washington)
2014 - 34,780  (Maryland vs Stanford)
2015 - 33,527  (Nabraska vs UCLA)
2016 - 27,608  (Indiana vs Utah)
2017 - 28,436  (Purdue vs Arizona)

My understanding of the Foster Farms disappointment was that the bowl organizers expected a bump in attendance because Stanford was so close.  But it was Christmas break, so all the students were gone, and the fan-base was not bunched within convenient driving distance as with more local universities.  So there was no bump, and Maryland fans actually outnumbered the Stanford fans.  But, yes, as can be seen, the attendance numbers have flagged regardless of the participants.  If there was any other beef, I am unaware of the causes.

RE: Bowl Projection - stupac2 - 11-26-2018

(11-25-2018, 10:13 PM)Hank 91 Wrote:  
(11-25-2018, 03:21 PM)Hank 91 Wrote:  I'll be rooting hard for the Holiday Bowl for selfish reasons -- it's within driving distance. That would be a nice end to what's been kind of a disappointing season.

I take back my wish. Just saw that the Holiday Bowl is on New Year's Eve this year. Not ideal.

I had the same reaction. I'll be down in SD for xmas this year but because the chowderheads in charge want everything around NYE I can't make this bowl if we're in it. With the old scheduling it would've been trivial (and in fact my wife has been to it a few times just for fun). Lame.

RE: Bowl Projection - Mick - 11-26-2018

(11-25-2018, 09:14 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  What Bowl Committee wouldn't want the "high flying" Stanford offense in their game?  I don't know if y'all realize it, but KJ Costello is one of the top QBs in the country, and Stanford is averaging more points (40) than Oregon (37), leading the Pac-12 in scoring over its last three games.

KJ is currently ranked #13 in passer efficiency in the NCAA.  His key negative statistic is interceptions, he's thrown 11, next worse in the top 15 is 7 INTs.  If he fixes that, he's one of the very best QBs out there.

RE: Bowl Projections - winflop - 11-26-2018

(11-25-2018, 11:57 PM)CTcard Wrote:  There's a lot of questionable stuff on bowl selections in this thread. 

The conference chooses the bowl selections (as Spiny noted). 

This is incorrect. The bowls choose the teams, there is a draft order, and a bowl can choose any team within one win/loss of the "best available" team.

Other than Big Game outcome, the biggest wild card seems to be whether Wazzu gets an NY6 bid or not. If they do, then Stanford (and other teams) naturally move up a slot. Of course if we don't retain the Axe then we are looking squarely at Las Vegas or worse.

Bowl games make a lot of their money off TV but they also get a cut of tourism-related revenue especially hotels. It's not just tickets and game concessions. So it does matter which teams they pick. They will favor the teams who they think will bring the most to the local economy.

RE: Bowl Projection - Goose - 11-26-2018

(11-26-2018, 09:52 AM)Mick Wrote:  KJ is currently ranked #13 in passer efficiency in the NCAA.  His key negative statistic is interceptions, he's thrown 11, next worse in the top 15 is 7 INTs.  If he fixes that, he's one of the very best QBs out there.
Running the offense the way we do right now, he is going to have more interceptions than other QBs. He is intentionally throwing to covered receivers so they can make a play. Sometimes, the defense makes a play. Next year, with no JJ and very probably no Kaden Smith, we will plan to do that less. If Costello can adjust to the different set of criteria, his interceptions will go down naturally.

RE: Bowl Projections - BobK - 11-26-2018

Great thoughts Goose. Thanks

RE: Bowl Projections - CTcard - 11-26-2018

(11-26-2018, 10:29 AM)winflop Wrote:  
(11-25-2018, 11:57 PM)CTcard Wrote:  There's a lot of questionable stuff on bowl selections in this thread. 

The conference chooses the bowl selections (as Spiny noted). 
This is incorrect. The bowls choose the teams, there is a draft order, and a bowl can choose any team within one win/loss of the "best available" team.

I wrote that without properly checking.
After further investigating, you are probably correct but I cannot find an official Pac 12 announcement on the matter.
It appears that the SEC and Big Ten pick the bowl lineups for their conferences, but that the Pac 12 instead has rules about the choice then leaves it to agreements between bowls and schools.

RE: Bowl Projection - qwerty49 - 11-26-2018

(11-26-2018, 10:29 AM)Goose Wrote:  
(11-26-2018, 09:52 AM)Mick Wrote:  KJ is currently ranked #13 in passer efficiency in the NCAA.  His key negative statistic is interceptions, he's thrown 11, next worse in the top 15 is 7 INTs.  If he fixes that, he's one of the very best QBs out there.
Running the offense the way we do right now, he is going to have more interceptions than other QBs. He is intentionally throwing to covered receivers so they can make a play. Sometimes, the defense makes a play. Next year, with no JJ and very probably no Kaden Smith, we will plan to do that less. If Costello can adjust to the different set of criteria, his interceptions will go down naturally.

Just watching on TV replay you can see he's throwing to a much smaller window than most QBs have.  Part of this is that with the exception of OSB going deep, none of our WRs get much separation.  And part is the fact that despite the lack of separation, we have a lot of confidence in our WRs' ability to dominate the smaller defenders in going to get the ball, and the fact that our WRs have really good hands.  That being said, I am continually impressed by the way KJ can thread the needle downfield, especially over the middle.  And I think at least 2-3 of those 11 picks have been tipped balls.

Pardon my ignorance, but - Nan3cy - 11-26-2018

is the Redbox Bowl what used to be the Foster Farms (Chicken) Bowl? And if yes, when the heck did it change?

RE: Bowl Projections - BostonCard - 11-26-2018

Yes, the chicken bowl became the movie bowl.  I think that’s new this year.

BC

RE: Bowl Projections - winflop - 11-26-2018

(11-26-2018, 11:06 AM)CTcard Wrote:  It appears that the SEC and Big Ten pick the bowl lineups for their conferences, but that the Pac 12 instead has rules about the choice then leaves it to agreements between bowls and schools.

If you're right that other conferences pick the teams rather than the bowls, that's yet another reason to fire Larry Scott!!

It's from 2015 but here's an article on the selection process that makes it clear that it is the bowl game's choice https://www.cougcenter.com/wsu-cougars-football/2015/11/16/9748014/pac-12-bowl-selection-process-tie-ins
Another 2016 article refers to the bowl selecting teams https://watchstadium.com/news/pac-12-bowl-tie-ins-selection-process-11-01-2016/

RE: Bowl Projections - chrisk - 11-26-2018

(11-26-2018, 02:01 PM)winflop Wrote:  
(11-26-2018, 11:06 AM)CTcard Wrote:  It appears that the SEC and Big Ten pick the bowl lineups for their conferences, but that the Pac 12 instead has rules about the choice then leaves it to agreements between bowls and schools.

If you're right that other conferences pick the teams rather than the bowls, that's yet another reason to fire Larry Scott!!

It's from 2015 but here's an article on the selection process that makes it clear that it is the bowl game's choice https://www.cougcenter.com/wsu-cougars-football/2015/11/16/9748014/pac-12-bowl-selection-process-tie-ins
Another 2016 article refers to the bowl selecting teams https://watchstadium.com/news/pac-12-bowl-tie-ins-selection-process-11-01-2016/


RE: Bowl Projections - 2006alum - 11-26-2018

Once again, I think we're overlooking the chicken and egg problem with the PAC-12. Assuming this disparity is true, is the reason why the Big Ten and the SEC got to pick their bowl order and we don't because we have a conference commissioner who negotiates weakly, or because he has a conference product that leaves him with a weaker hand to negotiate? I really can't repeat myself enough with this: PAC-12 teams don't travel as well, don't sell out stadiums, and don't generate eyeballs on TV anywhere near what the Big Ten and SEC do. If the disparity exists, it almost certainly exists because the Bowls were much happier to take whoever the SEC threw at them than the PAC-12, and negotiated for a role in deciding which PAC-12 team.

Scott came from the WTA, where he made brobdingnagian steps for the women's tour. But at no point did he ever replicate the deals the ATP got. In that sense, I suppose you could say he fell short. But nobody thought he was a terrible Chairman of the WTA because he couldn't achieve for the WTA what the ATP had. Quite the contrary, he was widely commended when he left, as he substantially increased the tour's annual revenue. 

Thus, I would put forward that the better measure is what we have now versus what we had prior to his negotiation of the conference's media and bowl packages. On that metric, the PAC-12 is in much better shape, especially since the product on both the football field and the basketball court has dropped off significantly over the last few seasons. There's a reason why the university presidents are quite happy with him.

Sorry for the diatribe, but I find the attacks on Scott somewhat naive. Your grievances are not misplaced, but your attribution for their cause is. If you want better bowl assignments, tell your fellow alums to stop founding companies, performing emergency surgeries, litigating Supreme Court cases, and winning Emmy Awards. Then we'd all have more time and energy to spend sitting on bleacher seats. Until then, it is what it is.