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RE: Herbig going pro - Phogge - 12-20-2018

Apparently Bobbb and I agree on Herbig. No loss at all. Adios. Plus Powell has been loyal and has played well.

RE: Herbig going pro - needle - 12-20-2018

Twitter is weird, but I counted three teammates who seemed to respond supportively to Herbig's Twitter announcement. If they seem to support him, as a fan I see no reason not to wish him luck in the future and hope that he does complete his degree (despite the weird grumbling I'm seeing in this thread).

RE: Herbig going pro - ColoradoTree - 12-20-2018

At the risk of promoting thread drift, the Matt Miller big board I noted also includes some positional rankings. No Stanford players in his Top 32, but in addition to Herbig as the #5 guard, he has Bryce Love as his #5 RB, JJAW as his #7 WR, and Kaden Smith as his #3 TE.  

Is Smith for sure leaving? If he is, looks like he's a Day 2 pick as well. But a good year next year would put him in Round 1, so there's value in staying.

RE: Herbig going pro - BostonCard - 12-20-2018

(12-20-2018, 10:54 AM)needle Wrote:  Twitter is weird, but I counted three teammates who seemed to respond supportively to Herbig's Twitter announcement. If they seem to support him, as a fan I see no reason not to wish him luck in the future and hope that he does complete his degree (despite the weird grumbling I'm seeing in this thread).

Probably falls along the lines of "if you don't have anything nice to say..."

I have no specific insight to what has happened with Herbig, but I trust Bob and TC not to make stuff up.  That being said, I still wish him well in the future.

But my focus is now on the 2020 Stanford team.  Onward!

BC

RE: Herbig going pro - Goose - 12-20-2018

I don't know what the "back story" may be on Herbig. He always appeared to be a guy with a lot of potential that never was as dominant as I expected, for whatever reasons. I can't really express an opinion about that, because I don't know. What I do know is that he put Shaw in an awkward position, where he had to say that Herbig wasn't injured but wouldn't be playing. When asked basically why, Shaw had to stonewall it. That is awkward at best.
If Herbig had decided he wasn't going to play, he should man up and announce his intentions. He shouldn't hang his coach out to dry for no apparently good reason. To me, that is classless. I can understand that leaving "early" and not playing can be controversial. However, there is no excuse for creating an awkward situation about you intentions. If you are not sure what you are going to do, say you are not sure. But if you are sure enough to say you won't play, you are sure enough to announce your intentions.

RE: Herbig going pro - stupac2 - 12-20-2018

(12-20-2018, 11:07 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote:  Is Smith for sure leaving? If he is, looks like he's a Day 2 pick as well. But a good year next year would put him in Round 1, so there's value in staying.

Not necessarily, it could be worth it getting to the second contract two years earlier (although the 5th year team option is closer to market value than the first 4 years) vs the larger initial contract.

RE: Herbig going pro - JohnR34231 - 12-20-2018

(12-20-2018, 11:07 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote:  At the risk of promoting thread drift, the Matt Miller big board I noted also includes some positional rankings. No Stanford players in his Top 32, but in addition to Herbig as the #5 guard, he has Bryce Love as his #5 RB, JJAW as his #7 WR, and Kaden Smith as his #3 TE.  

Is Smith for sure leaving? If he is, looks like he's a Day 2 pick as well. But a good year next year would put him in Round 1, so there's value in staying.

Shaw says he is a maybe for the bowl game.
Just a guess, but if he were planning on going to the League, I would think he would be skipping the game to ensure he is healthy for the various NFL activities that would affect his draft position.

RE: Herbig going pro - Phogge - 12-20-2018

If Smith does stay Costello has perhaps the best all round receiving corps in the country. Mackey finalist TE, giant flex TE, two veteran soph WR’s, a speed slot guy, a proven RB receiver and two promising frosh.

However if Costello were to pull the pin there would be nobody with experience to get them the ball.

I don’t care if Butter was sub par in the State title game. He was spot-on on the last drive to win. He has had an outstanding year against very good competition. Shaw needs two QB’s next year even if McKee doesn’t pull a Taysom Hill. If there is a better option OK. The kid wants to come, is a QB legacy.

RE: Herbig going pro - JohnR34231 - 12-20-2018

(12-20-2018, 01:24 PM)Phogge Wrote:  If Smith does stay Costello has perhaps the best all round receiving corps in the country. Mackey finalist TE, giant flex TE, two veteran soph WR’s, a speed slot guy, a proven RB receiver and two promising frosh.

However if Costello were to pull the pin there would be nobody with experience to get them the ball.

I don’t care if Butter was sub par in the State title game. He was spot-on on the last drive to win. He has had an outstanding year against very good competition. Shaw needs two QB’s next year even if McKee doesn’t pull a Taysom Hill. If there is a better option OK. The kid wants to come, is a QB legacy.

I don't think McKee is going to pull a Taysom Hill, but one way to increase his chances of doing so is to start recruiting other QB's.
I would also be very surprised also if Costello were to leave.

RE: Herbig going pro - BostonCard - 12-20-2018

(12-20-2018, 01:24 PM)Phogge Wrote:  If Smith does stay Costello has perhaps the best all round receiving corps in the country. Mackey finalist TE, giant flex TE, two veteran soph WR’s, a speed slot guy, a proven RB receiver and two promising frosh.

However if Costello were to pull the pin there would be nobody with experience to get them the ball.

I don’t care if Butter was sub par in the State title game. He was spot-on on the last drive to win. He has had an outstanding year against very good competition. Shaw needs two QB’s next year even if McKee doesn’t pull a Taysom Hill. If there is a better option OK. The kid wants to come, is a QB legacy.

Did I miss something or isn't Butterfield a 2020 recruit?  If so, even if Smith stays this year, he will have exhausted his eligibility after 2019 and will definitely be in the NFL.  Not sure what Parkinson will do.

I'm not sure that I would call Wilson and St. Brown "veteran sophomore wide receivers" as they played sparingly.  Hopefully by the time 2020 rolls around, they will be "veteran junior WR's"

BC

RE: Herbig going pro - JohnR34231 - 12-20-2018

(12-20-2018, 01:52 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  
(12-20-2018, 01:24 PM)Phogge Wrote:  If Smith does stay Costello has perhaps the best all round receiving corps in the country. Mackey finalist TE, giant flex TE, two veteran soph WR’s, a speed slot guy, a proven RB receiver and two promising frosh.

However if Costello were to pull the pin there would be nobody with experience to get them the ball.

I don’t care if Butter was sub par in the State title game. He was spot-on on the last drive to win. He has had an outstanding year against very good competition. Shaw needs two QB’s next year even if McKee doesn’t pull a Taysom Hill. If there is a better option OK. The kid wants to come, is a QB legacy.


Did I miss something or isn't Butterfield a 2020 recruit?  If so, even if Smith stays this year, he will have exhausted his eligibility after 2019 and will definitely be in the NFL.  Not sure what Parkinson will do.

I'm not sure that I would call Wilson and St. Brown "veteran sophomore wide receivers" as they played sparingly.  Hopefully by the time 2020 rolls around, they will be "veteran junior WR's"


BC

I think TC was talking about Costello throwing to Smith, not Butterfield.
Whether Wilson or St. Brown are veterans or not depends on how you define the term. I'm not sure they are rookies either. Perhaps somewhere in between.

RE: Herbig going pro - CTcard - 12-20-2018

(12-20-2018, 01:52 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I'm not sure that I would call Wilson and St. Brown "veteran sophomore wide receivers" as they played sparingly.  Hopefully by the time 2020 rolls around, they will be "veteran junior WR's"

I would probably call them high potential sophomore wide receivers. 

This year they caught 12 and 8 passes, respectively, but they both look promising.
St. Brown showed a knack for getting open deep (thus averaging 25.5 yds/catch) and Wilson looked on his way toward dependability, with at least one catch in his final seven games and a big four versus UCLA.

RE: Herbig going pro - Phogge - 12-20-2018

They had plenty of snaps and St. Brown has been around for two years. A vet. Plus he's been running routes since he could walk in that family with his dad and brothers. And I was referring to Costello, sorry for the un-Stanford grad use of the language.

RE: Herbig going pro - BostonCard - 12-20-2018

(12-20-2018, 02:45 PM)Phogge Wrote:  They had plenty of snaps and St. Brown has been around for two years. A vet. Plus he's been running routes since he could walk in that family with his dad and brothers. And I was referring to Costello, sorry for the un-Stanford grad use of the language.

I was referring to this statement:

Quote:I don’t care if Butter was sub par in the State title game. He was spot-on on the last drive to win. He has had an outstanding year against very good competition. Shaw needs two QB’s next year even if McKee doesn’t pull a Taysom Hill. If there is a better option OK. The kid wants to come, is a QB legacy.

Next year we will have three QB's: Costello, Mills, and West; McKee doesn't count as he'll still be on his mission.  There is downside risk of two QB's if Costello leaves early for the NFL or Mills is injured.  The danger the following year is that even if Costello stays this year (likely) he may well be gone in 2021.  We would still have at least two QB's between Mills, West, and McKee coming back from a mission, but of course there is the possibility that Mills is injured and McKee doesn't come back.

I agree that having Butterfield in the mix would be good, regardless, given that we don't have a 2020 QB.  But it doesn't help us for next year.

BC

RE: Herbig going pro - OutsiderFan - 12-20-2018

Is whatever the kerfuffle might be with the Big Island going to have an impact on Herbig the younger, who Stanford is now recruiting for 2020?

RE: Herbig going pro - Phogge - 12-20-2018

Sorry. To be clear I meant in the next year RECRUITING CYCLE. If a kid is scared of competition then maybe you don't want that kid. Not sold on West nor on the injured phenom or the LDS kid. Who knows if Butter Jr. can play at the next level but get another guy in the stable regardless. You have the scholies.

RE: Herbig going pro - winflop - 12-20-2018

(12-20-2018, 11:07 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote:  At the risk of promoting thread drift, the Matt Miller big board I noted also includes some positional rankings. No Stanford players in his Top 32, but in addition to Herbig as the #5 guard, he has Bryce Love as his #5 RB, JJAW as his #7 WR, and Kaden Smith as his #3 TE.  

Is Smith for sure leaving? If he is, looks like he's a Day 2 pick as well. But a good year next year would put him in Round 1, so there's value in staying.

Most draft boards I've seen put Smith as the #2 or #3 TE. That's day 1 for sure and at #2 it's potentially first round.
(12-20-2018, 10:32 AM)Phogge Wrote:  Apparently Bobbb and I agree on Herbig. No loss at all. Adios. Plus Powell has been loyal and has played well.

Did either of you not see how big the dropoff was when he was out? Herbig may not be a high draft pick but the guys behind him wouldn't even get UDFA contracts. Hopefully his backups improve a lot in the offseason. The gap was significant.

As for loyalty, Herbig was loyal too...until he wasn't.
(12-20-2018, 10:54 AM)needle Wrote:  Twitter is weird, but I counted three teammates who seemed to respond supportively to Herbig's Twitter announcement. If they seem to support him, as a fan I see no reason not to wish him luck in the future and hope that he does complete his degree (despite the weird grumbling I'm seeing in this thread).

Absolutely meaningless. They're not going to publicly throw him under the bus on his way out. And why do you think that we, as fans, have to align with his teammates' views?

I wish him luck in the future and hope he completes his degree for his own sake, but I'd prefer he did it somewhere else.
(12-20-2018, 07:45 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  
(12-20-2018, 02:45 PM)Phogge Wrote:  They had plenty of snaps and St. Brown has been around for two years. A vet. Plus he's been running routes since he could walk in that family with his dad and brothers. And I was referring to Costello, sorry for the un-Stanford grad use of the language.

I was referring to this statement:

Quote:I don’t care if Butter was sub par in the State title game. He was spot-on on the last drive to win. He has had an outstanding year against very good competition. Shaw needs two QB’s next year even if McKee doesn’t pull a Taysom Hill. If there is a better option OK. The kid wants to come, is a QB legacy.

Next year we will have three QB's: Costello, Mills, and West; McKee doesn't count as he'll still be on his mission.  There is downside risk of two QB's if Costello leaves early for the NFL or Mills is injured.  The danger the following year is that even if Costello stays this year (likely) he may well be gone in 2021.  We would still have at least two QB's between Mills, West, and McKee coming back from a mission, but of course there is the possibility that Mills is injured and McKee doesn't come back.

I agree that having Butterfield in the mix would be good, regardless, given that we don't have a 2020 QB.  But it doesn't help us for next year.

BC

The problem with not have a QB in this year's class isn't next year. Any incoming QB is going to redshirt - pretty much like every QB before him under Shaw. He's repeatedly stated that it takes a QB at least a year and more likely two years to develop a sufficient mastery of the offense to lead the team to a successful season.

The problem is in 2020 when Costello is gone. You have Mills - who has had how many surgeries now? - and West and Richardson (if he stays for a fifth year as a backup). After that it's a true frosh in McKee and walk-ons. With QB being such a high-risk position (injury and development), that's a depth chart that's too thin.

RE: Herbig going pro - BostonCard - 12-20-2018

FYI: Now that the NFL draft has been dragged into a three day affair, "first day" covers the first round only; "second day" covers rounds 2-4, and "third day" covers rounds 5-7.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_NFL_Draft

BC

RE: Herbig going pro - CTcard - 12-20-2018

(12-20-2018, 08:45 PM)winflop Wrote:  Did either of you not see how big the dropoff was when he was out?

Herbig played over the first six games (through Utah) then didn't play again until the cal game.

In the games where Herbig played, Stanford averaged 
rushing 87 yds/gm, 3.0 yds/carry  passing 264 yds/gm, 8.6 yds/attempt  Total 351 yds/gm, 5.88 yds/play

In the games where Herbig didn't play, Stanford averaged
rushing 139 yds/gm, 4.7 yds/carry  passing 319 yds/gm, 8.4 yds/attempt  Total 458 yds/gm, 6.74 yds/play

There's lots of complicated stuff behind those numbers, of course.


(12-20-2018, 08:45 PM)winflop Wrote:  I wish him luck in the future and hope he completes his degree for his own sake, but I'd prefer he did it somewhere else.

That seems at least a tad harsh. I wouldn't wish him out of Stanford altogether over this ... at least under most circumstances I could imagine.

In fact, I guess I'd slightly prefer it if he finished his degree at Stanford in the next three and a half years so he counts as a positive rather than a negative in the federal graduation rate - though that's probably more likely if he doesn't make an NFL team.

RE: Herbig going pro - winflop - 12-21-2018

(12-20-2018, 10:13 PM)CTcard Wrote:  That seems at least a tad harsh. 

I agree it's harsh. I'm not saying wipe his Stanford existence from our memories and I'm also not saying he should be barred from returning. But I am saying that I think if someone breaches their contract with the University they shouldn't continue to receive the benefits of that contract. The right to return & finish is part of that. I think if he wants to finish his degree at Stanford he should re-apply and absolutely pay for 100% of it.