Outside Topic The A's - Printable Version

Outside Topic The A's - Printable Version

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RE: The A's - BostonCard - 08-26-2019

[Image: dKYzjaN.jpg]

There is a correlation, but as you point out, it is not rock solid (note the data only runs to 2015, and thus excludes teams like Tampa Bay and KC a couple years ago). Still it is worth pointing out the outliers (teams that vastly outperformed their predicted win percentage based on payroll). The z-score represents the number of standard deviations above or below the mean payroll for that year (which allows you to compare across years). The ones that stand out:

1982 Angels: 93 wins and an AL West win, in a year they basically spent 2 standard deviations lower than the mean
1994 Expos: Probably the most amazing job of doing more with less; unfortunately that team's year was cut short by the strike. They were 74-40 at the time the season was cancelled, which would have projected to a 105-57 season had they played a full year. And they did it with a payroll about 1.75 standard deviations below the mean.
2001/2002 Oakland A's: These were the teams that gave Beane his reputation (along with the year before and year after, which all resulteed in playoff berths). The A's had a payroll that was about 1 standard deviation below the mean for those years, and went 102-60 and 103-59. You might expect a single season run followed by reversion to the mean, but the A's were able to sustain two 100 win seasons (followed by a 96 win season and proceeded by a 91-win season).
2001 Seattle Mariners; 1995 Cleveland Indians and 1998 NY Yankees: Those three teams had above average payrolls (~0.7 SD for Cleveland and Seattle, and close to 2 for the Yankees), but these were teams with about a .700 winning percentage. Cleveland went 100-44 in a season whose start was delayed, Seattle was 116-46 and eclipsed the A's that season, and the Yankees were 114-48.

BC

RE: lex24 - slide - 08-26-2019

(08-26-2019, 07:55 AM)lex24 Wrote: BTW. - the payroll bit is overhyped. A’s payroll is below average. But not by a whole lot. You want a low payroll team that’s doing great things- try Tampa Bay. Lowest payroll 8n MLB. Play in a lousy baseball area. And they win a lot. Who is their GM? Maybe DiCaprio can play him when they make the movie.....

good point Lex.

mlb average payroll is roughly $136M per club
A's payroll is $93M (#25 in baseball)
Rays payroll is $62M (lowest in baseball)
Giants payroll is $172M (#5 highest in baseball)
conclusion is the Giants really suck but even moreso at that payroll level

RE: The A's - BobK - 08-26-2019

When you Win World Series you reward your players and payroll goes way up. When you don’t payroll stays low.

Not great management of payroll simply the difference between winning and not winning

RE: The A's - slide - 08-26-2019

(08-26-2019, 10:31 AM)BobK Wrote: When you Win World Series you reward your players and payroll goes way up. When you don’t payroll stays low.

Not great management of payroll simply the difference between winning and not winning

that's certainly one way to look at it. antiques can be both expensive and brittle too. $110M for next year wrapped up in Cueto, Smardz, Longoria, Posey, Crawford and Belt.

lex24 - lex24 - 08-26-2019

Giants stuck to their model too long. No question. But I’ll take the 3 Championships. Zaidi was a needed change.

(08-26-2019, 02:48 PM)slide Wrote:
(08-26-2019, 10:31 AM)BobK Wrote: When you Win World Series you reward your players and payroll goes way up.   When you don’t payroll stays low.

Not great management of payroll simply the difference between winning and not winning

that's certainly one way to look at it.  antiques can be both expensive and brittle too.  $110M for next year wrapped up in Cueto, Smardz, Longoria, Posey, Crawford and Belt.

3 WS. The defense rests.

(08-26-2019, 10:22 AM)slide Wrote:
(08-26-2019, 07:55 AM)lex24 Wrote: BTW. - the payroll bit is overhyped. A’s payroll is below average. But not by a whole lot. You want a low payroll team that’s doing great things- try Tampa Bay. Lowest payroll 8n MLB. Play in a lousy baseball area. And they win a lot. Who is their GM?  Maybe DiCaprio can play him when they make the movie.....

 

good point Lex.  

mlb average payroll is roughly $136M per club
A's payroll is $93M (#25 in baseball)
Rays payroll is $62M (lowest in baseball)
Giants payroll is $172M (#5 highest in baseball)
conclusion is the Giants really suck but even moreso at that payroll level

RE: The A's - BostonCard - 08-26-2019

Right, ultimately it is about the rings, and 3 WS championships in 5 years is worth a few middling years followed by a rebuild.

BC