Outside Topic Mahomes - Printable Version

Outside Topic Mahomes - Printable Version

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RE: Mahomes - OutsiderFan - 01-20-2020

Vegas Insider had Chiefs open -1.5 and it has gone to -1 overnight.

If you are to look for a chink in the Niners armor, it is not scoring TDs in the Red Zone at as high a percentage as some other NFL teams, Chiefs included. So this line makes sense to me.

Still, the ability to run the ball like the Niners have these playoffs, is basically unheard of. They have run the ball 89 times for almost 500 yards in two games. KC is #27 in NFL YPC allowed, just one spot ahead of the Packers, and several places behind the Vikings. The Niners pass D is the best in the NFL. It was easy to stop a limited Tennessee offense playing its 4th straight road game. The Niners beat a better Green Bay team much more soundly; prevent defense yards allowed notwithstanding.

Basically, what the Niners do best on offense, the Chiefs don’t do well on D, and what the Chiefs do best on offense, the Niners are the best in the NFL at stopping. People will assume the Chiefs offense is superior, but the Niners actually were the higher scoring team over the season. They also played in the best division in the NFL and won it, overcoming many key injuries on both sides of ball, including even their Kicker, to do so.

I still go back to the reality that when healthy or mostly healthy this season the Niners have smoked everyone. That’s 7+ games in the regular season and two playoff games. I’ll add it all up and post it later.

RE: Mahomes - baymeadows3408 - 01-20-2020

Sagarin's predictor rating for Kansas City is 29.08 and for San Francisco is 27.84, which would make the Chiefs 1-1 1/2-point favorites. It looks like the Chiefs are opening as one-point favorites in many books, so they match Sagarin. I'm surprised Sagarin's rating favors the Chiefs, considering how the Chiefs were 4-2 against top-10 teams and 6-3 vs. top-16 teams and the 49ers were 7-2 against top-10 teams and 7-3 vs. top-16 teams, but his formula might be penalizing the 49ers for winning a lot of close games down the stretch. Anyway, it should be fun watching the 49ers defense against the Chiefs offense. The Chiefs' offense is dangerous, but the 49ers hit hard and swarm the ball and as someone who is pulling for the 49ers I don't find myself wanting to trade places.

Edit/addition: I compared the KC-Houston game to Oregon dominating Stanford in 2010 after Stanford took a commanding early lead. The 49ers' game yesterday reminded me of a different game against Oregon: the 2013 game in which we ran it down their throats and shut down their offense. Both Oregon and Green Bay cut the deficit to make the final score appear respectable, but in both cases the losing team was physically manhandled.

lex24 - lex24 - 01-20-2020

(01-20-2020, 12:18 AM)CornFed Wrote:
(01-19-2020, 10:52 PM)lex24 Wrote:

"And a very good offense in San Francisco going up against a very mediocre offense in Kansas City"

Do a large number people on this board think that KC's offense is even close to being mediocre? I am shocked if that's so. I admit I would have thought 49ers would be favored, but because of SF's defense. I think that just on the basis of Mahomes alone that KC has an edge on offense. I guess I'll need to re-evaluate.

Typo. I had called KC offense great in the previous sentence. It’s dynamic. Great QB. Speed everywhere. Great TE. Great o line. And great offensive mind in Andy Reid.

DEFENSE is mediocre. Sorry for the confusion.

RE: lex24 - CornFed - 01-20-2020

(01-20-2020, 06:27 AM)lex24 Wrote:
(01-20-2020, 12:18 AM)CornFed Wrote:
(01-19-2020, 10:52 PM)lex24 Wrote:

"And a very good offense in San Francisco going up against a very mediocre offense in Kansas City"

Do a large number people on this board think that KC's offense is even close to being mediocre? I am shocked if that's so. I admit I would have thought 49ers would be favored, but because of SF's defense. I think that just on the basis of Mahomes alone that KC has an edge on offense. I guess I'll need to re-evaluate.

Typo. I had called KC offense great in the previous sentence. It’s dynamic. Great QB. Speed everywhere. Great TE. Great o line. And great offensive mind in Andy Reid.

DEFENSE is mediocre. Sorry for the confusion.

Sorry. I obviously didn't read it closely enough.

RE: Mahomes - French Rage - 01-20-2020

Alls I knows is it's gonna be a good game.

RE: Mahomes - OutsiderFan - 01-20-2020

OK, I just ran the math...

The Niners have allowed 11.8 PPG in all games (playoffs included) started and finished by Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiski Tartt. In those games the Niners have averaged just about 4 sacks per game. Until those guys went out with injuries, the Niners were on pace for the best pass defense in the last 40 years in the NFL, which basically means ever, because passing offenses weren't nearly as prolific 40+ years ago.

The last time a high flying offense played a Super Bowl and didn't win? You have to go all the way back to... LAST YEAR. The Rams scored what, 3 points after a 537 point scoring season? How about Cam Newton's 2015 Panthers, who were as ballyhooed an offense as the Chiefs in 2015 (15-1 500 Points scored), but only managed 10 points in the Super Bowl. Or maybe let's revisit those Patriots teams that had hyped offenses but lost to the NYG in both Super Bowl matchups against them because the Giants had the better defense.

Teams that play great defense, can rush the passer, and run the ball are the most difficult to overcome. This doesn't mean the Niners will beat the Chiefs, but history tells us the Niners will slow the Chiefs dramatically. Hell, they held 531 point scoring Baltimore to its season low 20 (without the three key defenders who missed time), until the playoffs when Tennessee held them to 12.

One thing nobody is going to guess: The Niners scored more points this year (479 - 451) and the Chiefs actually gave up 2 fewer overall (308-310). Sure, Mahomes missed a couple games, but the Niners were clobbered by injuries in the middle of the season.

Most importantly, when George Kittle is on the field, the Niners average 4.9 YPA on outside runs. When he is off, they average 3.0. This is mind-blowing dominance you get on every outside run. He is basically an edge killer. Statistically, the Niners never need to pass with Kittle on the field because three straight runs is a first down. This is what most people just aren't going to appreciate when assessing the Niners in the upcoming Super Bowl.

RE: Mahomes - BostonCard - 01-20-2020

(01-20-2020, 12:15 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Most importantly, when George Kittle is on the field, the Niners average 4.9 YPA on outside runs. When he is off, they average 3.0. This is mind-blowing dominance you get on every outside run. He is basically an edge killer. Statistically, the Niners never need to pass with Kittle on the field because three straight runs is a first down. This is what most people just aren't going to appreciate when assessing the Niners in the upcoming Super Bowl.

Statistically, this is wrong, because it assumes that the mean is exact and has no variance. Once you add a standard deviation greater than zero to that statistic you realize that a given outside run may gain more than 4.9 yards or less than 4.9 yards, and that three straight outside runs could gain less than 10 yards when added together.

BC

RE: Mahomes - OutsiderFan - 01-20-2020

(01-20-2020, 12:36 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(01-20-2020, 12:15 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Most importantly, when George Kittle is on the field, the Niners average 4.9 YPA on outside runs. When he is off, they average 3.0. This is mind-blowing dominance you get on every outside run. He is basically an edge killer. Statistically, the Niners never need to pass with Kittle on the field because three straight runs is a first down. This is what most people just aren't going to appreciate when assessing the Niners in the upcoming Super Bowl.

Statistically, this is wrong, because it assumes that the mean is exact and has no variance. Once you add a standard deviation greater than zero to that statistic you realize that a given outside run may gain more than 4.9 yards or less than 4.9 yards, and that three straight outside runs could gain less than 10 yards when added together.

BC

The play selections and run game production against the Packers and Vikings demonstrates the point. Sorry for offending the statistics gods.

RE: Mahomes - teejers1 - 01-20-2020

(01-20-2020, 12:15 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: OK, I just ran the math...

The Niners have allowed 11.8 PPG in all games (playoffs included) started and finished by Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiski Tartt. In those games the Niners have averaged just about 4 sacks per game. Until those guys went out with injuries, the Niners were on pace for the best pass defense in the last 40 years in the NFL, which basically means ever, because passing offenses weren't nearly as prolific 40+ years ago.

The last time a high flying offense played a Super Bowl and didn't win? You have to go all the way back to... LAST YEAR. The Rams scored what, 3 points after a 537 point scoring season? How about Cam Newton's 2015 Panthers, who were as ballyhooed an offense as the Chiefs in 2015 (15-1 500 Points scored), but only managed 10 points in the Super Bowl. Or maybe let's revisit those Patriots teams that had hyped offenses but lost to the NYG in both Super Bowl matchups against them because the Giants had the better defense.

Teams that play great defense, can rush the passer, and run the ball are the most difficult to overcome. This doesn't mean the Niners will beat the Chiefs, but history tells us the Niners will slow the Chiefs dramatically. Hell, they held 531 point scoring Baltimore to its season low 20 (without the three key defenders who missed time), until the playoffs when Tennessee held them to 12.

One thing nobody is going to guess: The Niners scored more points this year (479 - 451) and the Chiefs actually gave up 2 fewer overall (308-310). Sure, Mahomes missed a couple games, but the Niners were clobbered by injuries in the middle of the season.

Most importantly, when George Kittle is on the field, the Niners average 4.9 YPA on outside runs. When he is off, they average 3.0. This is mind-blowing dominance you get on every outside run. He is basically an edge killer. Statistically, the Niners never need to pass with Kittle on the field because three straight runs is a first down. This is what most people just aren't going to appreciate when assessing the Niners in the upcoming Super Bowl.

The stats mean very little when you play someone like Mahomes. The guy doesn't get sacked, and he runs away from pressure better than anyone not named Lamar Jackson. But here's the real killer: the speed at the receiving positions. When combined with Mahomes' speed/escapability, it is a lethal combo. I expect the Chiefs to score at least 31 points. The question is: can the 'Niners score 40?

I think they can, but that will require, among other things, a damn near flawless game from Jimmy G.

We shall see . . .

P.S. Sherman (and others in the Niner secondary) will get torched at least twice on big plays.

lex24 - lex24 - 01-20-2020

(01-20-2020, 01:57 PM)teejers1 Wrote:
(01-20-2020, 12:15 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: OK, I just ran the math...

The Niners have allowed 11.8 PPG in all games (playoffs included) started and finished by Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiski Tartt. In those games the Niners have averaged just about 4 sacks per game. Until those guys went out with injuries, the Niners were on pace for the best pass defense in the last 40 years in the NFL, which basically means ever, because passing offenses weren't nearly as prolific 40+ years ago.

The last time a high flying offense played a Super Bowl and didn't win? You have to go all the way back to... LAST YEAR. The Rams scored what, 3 points after a 537 point scoring season? How about Cam Newton's 2015 Panthers, who were as ballyhooed an offense as the Chiefs in 2015 (15-1 500 Points scored), but only managed 10 points in the Super Bowl. Or maybe let's revisit those Patriots teams that had hyped offenses but lost to the NYG in both Super Bowl matchups against them because the Giants had the better defense.

Teams that play great defense, can rush the passer, and run the ball are the most difficult to overcome. This doesn't mean the Niners will beat the Chiefs, but history tells us the Niners will slow the Chiefs dramatically. Hell, they held 531 point scoring Baltimore to its season low 20 (without the three key defenders who missed time), until the playoffs when Tennessee held them to 12.

One thing nobody is going to guess: The Niners scored more points this year (479 - 451) and the Chiefs actually gave up 2 fewer overall (308-310). Sure, Mahomes missed a couple games, but the Niners were clobbered by injuries in the middle of the season.

Most importantly, when George Kittle is on the field, the Niners average 4.9 YPA on outside runs. When he is off, they average 3.0. This is mind-blowing dominance you get on every outside run. He is basically an edge killer. Statistically, the Niners never need to pass with Kittle on the field because three straight runs is a first down. This is what most people just aren't going to appreciate when assessing the Niners in the upcoming Super Bowl.

The stats mean very little when you play someone like Mahomes. The guy doesn't get sacked, and he runs away from pressure better than anyone not named Lamar Jackson. But here's the real killer: the speed at the receiving positions. When combined with Mahomes' speed/escapability, it is a lethal combo. I expect the Chiefs to score at least 31 points. The question is: can the 'Niners score 40?

I think they can, but that will require, among other things, a damn near flawless game from Jimmy G.

We shall see . . .

P.S. Sherman (and others in the Niner secondary) will get torched at least twice on big plays.

My guess is whichever team controls the LOS wins. As is usually the case. And 31 points tells me nothing. When they get them does. Rodgers threw for about 340 yesterday. About 270 after the game was essentially over. GB outgained the Niners. Stats lie.

I don’t think the 49ers win if it’s a shootout. They CAN as they proved in NO. But it’s not what they want to do. KC has more firepower. If the Niners can sustain drives, control clock and limit Mahomes chances, they should win.

RE: lex24 - teejers1 - 01-20-2020

(01-20-2020, 02:45 PM)lex24 Wrote: I don’t think the 49ers win if it’s a shootout. They CAN as they proved in NO. But it’s not what they want to do. KC has more firepower. If the Niners can sustain drives, control clock and limit Mahomes chances, they should win.

The 'Niners may not have a choice, if they can't stop Kansas City (and remember, it takes KC all of about 45 seconds to score a TD). But I'll give you this much, if the 'Niners find themselves down 10-0 (or even 14-0) early, I hope they don't panic and start airing it out. Stick with the game plan, which must include a healthy dose of running the ball. That should be their plan all game, unless the clock just flat precludes running the ball much (which I hope never happens).

RE: lex24 - BostonCard - 01-20-2020

(01-20-2020, 04:23 PM)teejers1 Wrote:
(01-20-2020, 02:45 PM)lex24 Wrote: I don’t think the 49ers win if it’s a shootout. They CAN as they proved in NO. But it’s not what they want to do. KC has more firepower. If the Niners can sustain drives, control clock and limit Mahomes chances, they should win.

The 'Niners may not have a choice, if they can't stop Kansas City (and remember, it takes KC all of about 45 seconds to score a TD). But I'll give you this much, if the 'Niners find themselves down 10-0 (or even 14-0) early, I hope they don't panic and start airing it out. Stick with the game plan, which must include a healthy dose of running the ball. That should be their plan all game, unless the clock just flat precludes running the ball much (which I hope never happens).

I think this will be the key. The Niners can win but they need to keep it close early and wear down the Chiefs. I don’t think the Niners are built to come back from a big hole.

BC

RE: lex24 - cardcrimson - 01-20-2020

(01-20-2020, 07:34 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(01-20-2020, 04:23 PM)teejers1 Wrote:
(01-20-2020, 02:45 PM)lex24 Wrote: I don’t think the 49ers win if it’s a shootout. They CAN as they proved in NO. But it’s not what they want to do. KC has more firepower. If the Niners can sustain drives, control clock and limit Mahomes chances, they should win.

The 'Niners may not have a choice, if they can't stop Kansas City (and remember, it takes KC all of about 45 seconds to score a TD). But I'll give you this much, if the 'Niners find themselves down 10-0 (or even 14-0) early, I hope they don't panic and start airing it out. Stick with the game plan, which must include a healthy dose of running the ball. That should be their plan all game, unless the clock just flat precludes running the ball much (which I hope never happens).

I think this will be the key. The Niners can win but they need to keep it close early and wear down the Chiefs. I don’t think the Niners are built to come back from a big hole.

BC

They showed a stat during the first quarter of the Chiefs game, that they've be outscored by 31 points in the first quarter this year. Then again, they have the highest scoring average in the second quarter in the NFL. The Niners are pretty consistent. . . .

lex24 - lex24 - 01-21-2020

(01-20-2020, 07:41 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(01-20-2020, 07:34 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(01-20-2020, 04:23 PM)teejers1 Wrote:
(01-20-2020, 02:45 PM)lex24 Wrote: I don’t think the 49ers win if it’s a shootout. They CAN as they proved in NO. But it’s not what they want to do. KC has more firepower. If the Niners can sustain drives, control clock and limit Mahomes chances, they should win.

The 'Niners may not have a choice, if they can't stop Kansas City (and remember, it takes KC all of about 45 seconds to score a TD). But I'll give you this much, if the 'Niners find themselves down 10-0 (or even 14-0) early, I hope they don't panic and start airing it out. Stick with the game plan, which must include a healthy dose of running the ball. That should be their plan all game, unless the clock just flat precludes running the ball much (which I hope never happens).

I think this will be the key. The Niners can win but they need to keep it close early and wear down the Chiefs. I don’t think the Niners are built to come back from a big hole.

BC

They showed a stat during the first quarter of the Chiefs game, that they've be outscored by 31 points in the first quarter this year. Then again, they have the highest scoring average in the second quarter in the NFL. The Niners are pretty consistent. . . .

I think that stat was limited to playoffs. 0-21 vs Houston. 0-10 vs Tenn

RE: lex24 - cardcrimson - 01-21-2020

(01-21-2020, 09:17 AM)lex24 Wrote: They showed a stat during the first quarter of the Chiefs game, that they've be outscored by 31 points in the first quarter this year. Then again, they have the highest scoring average in the second quarter in the NFL. The Niners are pretty consistent. . . .

I think that stat was limited to playoffs. 0-21 vs Houston. 0-10 vs Tenn
[/quote]

Perhaps, in a bar with no sound. . . .

RE: Mahomes - Mick - 01-22-2020

I notice that Garoppolo had 10 interceptions in the first ten games of the season...supposedly the "easy" part of SF's schedule. He only had four interceptions in the last eight games, including two playoff games and games against Baltimore, New Orleans, two against Green Bay, and against Seattle.