All of CA goes shelter-in-place - Printable Version
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RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - burger - 03-20-2020
I listened to the gov's press conference last night, and he either said or implied that they were not sweating the details or enforcement as long as people are largely complying. If people don't comply and/or the cases continue to skyrocket, then I would expect a harder line on what counts as "essential," actual enforcement by police, etc.
In the interim, I think it's okay to let people do their best to figure it out themselves and see where things stand in a couple of days. It would probably take at least that long to come up with a comprehensive list of what is and isn't essential anyhow.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - Goose - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 02:40 PM)burger Wrote: In the interim, I think it's okay to let people do their best to figure it out themselves and see where things stand in a couple of days. It would probably take at least that long to come up with a comprehensive list of what is and isn't essential anyhow.Unfortunately, I can't agree. The State is ordering (not asking) many people to do something that is going to cost them money, maybe lots of money. It may be money they don't have. The degree to which Californians are public-spirited and willing to comply voluntarily is, I'm afraid, very limited. The State must say exactly who they mean, or it isn't happening. In our neighborhood, many people are staying home. However, construction work continues and landscapers show up to mow and blow on schedule. Compliance is not by any means universal. The State needs to say what they mean and mean what they say.
It has been suggested that more compliance would occur if people knew they would have income from the Federal or State government to see them through. Perhaps so, but the orders don't say "except if it is going to be a financial burden". The fact is that we are all going to take a hit, and it is probably impossible for the government to mitigate this to a large extent. A $1500.00 check isn't really going to do it. That is just a fact. As citizens, we all have an obligation to follow the rules. It isn't always easy. Maybe it has been too long since the general public was reminded of that fact.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - 82 Card - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 02:59 PM)Goose Wrote:(03-20-2020, 02:40 PM)burger Wrote: In the interim, I think it's okay to let people do their best to figure it out themselves and see where things stand in a couple of days. It would probably take at least that long to come up with a comprehensive list of what is and isn't essential anyhow.Unfortunately, I can't agree. The State is ordering (not asking) many people to do something that is going to cost them money, maybe lots of money. It may be money they don't have. The degree to which Californians are public-spirited and willing to comply voluntarily is, I'm afraid, very limited. The State must say exactly who they mean, or it isn't happening. In our neighborhood, many people are staying home. However, construction work continues and landscapers show up to mow and blow on schedule. Compliance is not by any means universal. The State needs to say what they mean and mean what they say.
It has been suggested that more compliance would occur if people knew they would have income from the Federal or State government to see them through. Perhaps so, but the orders don't say "except if it is going to be a financial burden". The fact is that we are all going to take a hit, and it is probably impossible for the government to mitigate this to a large extent. A $1500.00 check isn't really going to do it. That is just a fact. As citizens, we all have an obligation to follow the rules. It isn't always easy. Maybe it has been too long since the general public was reminded of that fact.
Under the county orders, the mow and blow guys are not in violation as long as they come alone or in separate vehicles. The construction workers may be in compliance as well as long as the project isn't closed in. Under the state order, both are in violation.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - burger - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 02:59 PM)Goose Wrote:(03-20-2020, 02:40 PM)burger Wrote: In the interim, I think it's okay to let people do their best to figure it out themselves and see where things stand in a couple of days. It would probably take at least that long to come up with a comprehensive list of what is and isn't essential anyhow.Unfortunately, I can't agree. The State is ordering (not asking) many people to do something that is going to cost them money, maybe lots of money. It may be money they don't have. The degree to which Californians are public-spirited and willing to comply voluntarily is, I'm afraid, very limited. The State must say exactly who they mean, or it isn't happening. In our neighborhood, many people are staying home. However, construction work continues and landscapers show up to mow and blow on schedule. Compliance is not by any means universal. The State needs to say what they mean and mean what they say.
It has been suggested that more compliance would occur if people knew they would have income from the Federal or State government to see them through. Perhaps so, but the orders don't say "except if it is going to be a financial burden". The fact is that we are all going to take a hit, and it is probably impossible for the government to mitigate this to a large extent. A $1500.00 check isn't really going to do it. That is just a fact. As citizens, we all have an obligation to follow the rules. It isn't always easy. Maybe it has been too long since the general public was reminded of that fact.
Well, judging from air quality and traffic data, there seems to be a lot of compliance so far. I'm sure it's not perfect, but Newsom said they weren't worrying about enforcement yet. That comes next if there is not compliance or the numbers don't respond (which we won't know for ~10 days or more).
I agree that a one-time $1500 or whatever is woefully insufficient--that's what the Republicans have been throwing around (plus a lot of corporate tax cuts which will not help anyone). The Democratic proposal that I saw was for like $2000 per month per adult plus more for kids. That is a pretty good start, though still not enough I think.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - Goose - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 03:12 PM)82 Card Wrote: Under the county orders, the mow and blow guys are not in violation as long as they come alone or in separate vehicles.Mixed bag. Some are alone.
Quote:The construction workers may be in compliance as well as long as the project isn't closed in. Under the state order, both are in violation.I get it that if the roof is off the building or the house is up on a temporary foundation, the project needs to go ahead until the roof is on/the house is stable. We had a couple of those in the area, who did their thing and stopped. We have at least one more that has a roof on and is going ahead. I think their plan is to continue right along until somebody stops them.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - Goose - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 03:22 PM)burger Wrote: Well, judging from air quality and traffic data, there seems to be a lot of compliance so far. I'm sure it's not perfect, but Newsom said they weren't worrying about enforcement yet. That comes next if there is not compliance or the numbers don't respond (which we won't know for ~10 days or more).For sure lots of people are complying. For sure quite a few are not. I had hopes that compliance would happen voluntarily, because when enforcement is required, things get ugly fast. We in Northern Cal have a few days head start over the rest of the state. Mayor Breed has just recently had to admonish people not to schedule dinner parties (!). I think lots of people don't yet realize that this is serious and that they don't get to chose what part of the rules they follow. They stay home from work but then let their kids play in the street with the other neighborhood children. No big deal, what could it hurt?
Quote:I agree that a one-time $1500 or whatever is woefully insufficient--that's what the Republicans have been throwing around (plus a lot of corporate tax cuts which will not help anyone). The Democratic proposal that I saw was for like $2000 per month per adult plus more for kids. That is a pretty good start, though still not enough I think.I think you and I will never see this the same way. While I agree some immediate relief to get people through the next three weeks is necessary, that really isn't going to much matter in the grand scheme of things. What we all need to hope for is that the shelter in place is "short" and that plans are made to spread the pain in a way that the economy can treat this period of time as a non-event/holiday. This means businesses that are closed/not fully open pay no rent while they are in that state. Landlords don't have to make mortgage payments to the bank if the property in question is not fully open. These aren't loans, they are holidays. Yes, the landlord takes the hit but hopefully he has a viable tenant when things restart. The bank takes a hit too, but at least they don't have a pile of non-performing loans after the lockdown is over. These policies and things like them may preserve some confidence that the economy will not tank. This kind of planning is what will really matter. Without that, all the "relief" in the world is futile. You can never print enough money. We tried that during the great depression. It kept people from starving but it didn't restore the economy. Interest rates are already zero. That lever has been pulled. Distributing lots of cash isn't going to "fix" anything. It can get us through to the next steps, but nothing more.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - BostonCard - 03-20-2020
From Anne Lowry:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/quantifying-coming-recession/608443/
It's not a recession, it's an ice age.
Quote:To quantify the present reality, we have to rely on anecdotes from businesses, surveys of workers, shreds of private data, and a few state numbers. They show an economy not in a downturn or a contraction or a soft patch, not experiencing losses or selling off or correcting. They show evaporation, disappearance on what feels like a religious scale.
BC
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - chrisk - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 04:37 PM)BostonCard Wrote: From Anne Lowry:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/quantifying-coming-recession/608443/
It's not a recession, it's an ice age.
Quote:To quantify the present reality, we have to rely on anecdotes from businesses, surveys of workers, shreds of private data, and a few state numbers. They show an economy not in a downturn or a contraction or a soft patch, not experiencing losses or selling off or correcting. They show evaporation, disappearance on what feels like a religious scale.
BC
A surtax on high incomes might drive home the reality that income redistribution to the unemployed is really going on.
There is no free lunch even if the Feds can borrow at low rates.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - 2006alum - 03-20-2020
We need both instant support AND holidays:
Instant support is necessary because we are humans with consumptive biological needs that cannot be holidayed. People need to eat, drink, maintain hygiene, use power (electrical, gas, and oil), have their waste disposed of, and have serious medical issues looked after. For all those things, we cannot wave a magic holiday wand to suspend consumption. Getting checks out ASAP ensures the plurality of Americans who are one paycheck away from insolvency can keep going.
But as Goose said, we also need massive holidays. Holidays for many forms of debt, in terms of deferred payments and interest accrual, including student loans, car loans, mortgages, and rent. The only way you make that work is for the federal government to provide certain guarantees on the front end. This is much easier to wave a wand for federally subsidized student loans and federally operated mortgages, harder for private loans where intermediaries need bridge financing that, as Goose notes, may as often be a subsidy as a zero-interest loan, since the underlying financing is always going to be X number of payments behind all the way down the chain.
Here's something I wonder: is it legally possible and at all feasible to push back due dates on all kinds of debt obligations? For example, if a renter can't pay a landlord for the next two months' rent, which means the landlord is therefore behind two mortgage payments with their banker, and the community bank lender thus has x% more loans "go bad" absent some kind of intervention and y% less capital reserves, would it be possible to simply push back due dates for X weeks/months/payment periods so that it is a true holiday that doesn't count against anyone's liabilities?
Again, that seems easiest in the case of student loans and other liabilities fully within the government's control, and depending on how you interpret Trump's statement about suspending interesting for 60 days, maybe that's what's already happening. But it seems like that would be the easiest way to "unfreeze" everything on the back end, even if it can't possibly come closing to solving it all.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - martyup - 03-20-2020
Californians should be planting vegetables right now. If you don't have a yard, plant in containers. You can buy starts to cut the harvest time. You will be harvesting food in a few weeks. It's too cold here in Idaho to plant outside, so we are starting seeds indoors. Also, get some chickens. They are cheap to feed and they produce good protein in eggs. If they don't lay, eat them. Rabbits are also a good source of protein and they reproduce rapidly.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - stupac2 - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 05:22 PM)martyup Wrote: Californians should be planting vegetables right now. If you don't have a yard, plant in containers. You can buy starts to cut the harvest time. You will be harvesting food in a few weeks. It's too cold here in Idaho to plant outside, so we are starting seeds indoors. Also, get some chickens. They are cheap to feed and they produce good protein in eggs. If they don't lay, eat them. Rabbits are also a good source of protein and they reproduce rapidly.
We pretty extensively garden (I have like 15 fruit trees and a smattering of bushes, and have built a number of plots for vegetables as well) and it gives you a nice addition to a meal sometimes. There's just no way that people who don't have large plots can possibly generate a significant number of calories from their land, especially on short notice and with no skill. I suppose it would help on the margins, but turning a run to the grocery store into a run to the nursery isn't much difference.
Re: compliance, I was shocked today when I went to my local market. The staff were wearing gloves/masks but were not even attempting to maintain distance, they weren't limiting access to the store at all, people inside were not making any attempt to keep distance (and in fact loudly complaining when spacing made access hard), it was a complete ***** disaster to the point that I am absolutely not going back there until I get assurance that it's better, because dear god is that an outbreak waiting to happen.
I also saw a group of people chatting close together blocking a trail in the park when my son and I went on a walk. They weren't from the same house because they separated as we approached. I just, what is wrong with these people?
Re: the economy, we need to throw as much as we can at it as fast as we can. I'm in love with the idea I saw floated by some congresscritter somewhere to authorize the fed to print money to send to people, that seems like the best of all worlds (money goes out quickly, only possible downside is inflation which is low anyway). I keep seeing that people want to means-test it which is absurd, it's impossible to know based on last year's taxes who actually needs money now because of job loss etc, there are crazy differences in CoL ($180k in the bay area is a lot different than in Idaho) and half of the point is to get people to spend (if we're getting checks I'm waaaaay more likely to patronize local businesses than if I think we're on our own). Sure postponing debt payments would help some with people like me, but man does it seem pointless, especially if the money is coming from the fed.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - BostonCard - 03-20-2020
Compare that to Denmark...
[tweet]https://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/1240300065643782145?s=21[/tweet]
BC
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - chrisk - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 06:09 PM)stupac2 Wrote:(03-20-2020, 05:22 PM)martyup Wrote: Californians should be planting vegetables right now. If you don't have a yard, plant in containers. You can buy starts to cut the harvest time. You will be harvesting food in a few weeks. It's too cold here in Idaho to plant outside, so we are starting seeds indoors. Also, get some chickens. They are cheap to feed and they produce good protein in eggs. If they don't lay, eat them. Rabbits are also a good source of protein and they reproduce rapidly.General payments, even means-tested, are a way to buy votes by incumbents. The money should all go to the unemployed.
We pretty extensively garden (I have like 15 fruit trees and a smattering of bushes, and have built a number of plots for vegetables as well) and it gives you a nice addition to a meal sometimes. There's just no way that people who don't have large plots can possibly generate a significant number of calories from their land, especially on short notice and with no skill. I suppose it would help on the margins, but turning a run to the grocery store into a run to the nursery isn't much difference.
Re: compliance, I was shocked today when I went to my local market. The staff were wearing gloves/masks but were not even attempting to maintain distance, they weren't limiting access to the store at all, people inside were not making any attempt to keep distance (and in fact loudly complaining when spacing made access hard), it was a complete ***** disaster to the point that I am absolutely not going back there until I get assurance that it's better, because dear god is that an outbreak waiting to happen.
I also saw a group of people chatting close together blocking a trail in the park when my son and I went on a walk. They weren't from the same house because they separated as we approached. I just, what is wrong with these people?
Re: the economy, we need to throw as much as we can at it as fast as we can. I'm in love with the idea I saw floated by some congresscritter somewhere to authorize the fed to print money to send to people, that seems like the best of all worlds (money goes out quickly, only possible downside is inflation which is low anyway). I keep seeing that people want to means-test it which is absurd, it's impossible to know based on last year's taxes who actually needs money now because of job loss etc, there are crazy differences in CoL ($180k in the bay area is a lot different than in Idaho) and half of the point is to get people to spend (if we're getting checks I'm waaaaay more likely to patronize local businesses than if I think we're on our own). Sure postponing debt payments would help some with people like me, but man does it seem pointless, especially if the money is coming from the fed.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - stupac2 - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 06:32 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Compare that to Denmark...
[tweet]https://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/1240300065643782145?s=21[/tweet]
BC
To be fair I've seen similar things here in the US, but man does it not seem to be common enough.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - ChicagoCard - 03-21-2020
Boy there was some drift on that twitter thread...
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - Farm93 - 03-21-2020
(03-20-2020, 08:48 PM)stupac2 Wrote:We have innovations too.(03-20-2020, 06:32 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Compare that to Denmark...
[tweet]https://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/1240300065643782145?s=21[/tweet]
BC
To be fair I've seen similar things here in the US, but man does it not seem to be common enough.
Amazon Prime, Supermarket delivery services, Wal-Mart Pick-up, etc.
The in-store food shopping experience seems destined to create community spread. I have always preferred to shop on my own to assess and select produce and other items, but for the next few months the front porch delivery will be my path even if stores had those cute floor dots.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - stupac2 - 03-21-2020
(03-21-2020, 05:49 AM)Farm93 Wrote: We have innovations too.
Amazon Prime, Supermarket delivery services, Wal-Mart Pick-up, etc.
The in-store food shopping experience seems destined to create community spread. I have always preferred to shop on my own to assess and select produce and other items, but for the next few months the front porch delivery will be my path even if stores had those cute floor dots.
Those things are hammered right now. We placed an amazon Fresh delivery last weekend and just never got it. Meanwhile things like wipes and hand sanitizer are totally wiped out on Amazon. It wasn't important but I ordered some new Ryobi batteries before the SiP order and it took an extra week to get into me because everything was so clogged. My office was expecting some expensive electronic equipment to be delivered on Tuesday and as far as we can tell FedEx has completely lost it (hurray).
Like, in general, yeah they're nice. But we don't have the infrastructure in place to actually do it in place of in-person shopping.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - Snorlax94 - 03-21-2020
(03-20-2020, 05:22 PM)martyup Wrote: Californians should be planting vegetables right now. If you don't have a yard, plant in containers. You can buy starts to cut the harvest time. You will be harvesting food in a few weeks. It's too cold here in Idaho to plant outside, so we are starting seeds indoors. Also, get some chickens. They are cheap to feed and they produce good protein in eggs. If they don't lay, eat them. Rabbits are also a good source of protein and they reproduce rapidly.
Whoa, are people suggesting there will be such chaos that there could be lasting food shortages??? In the absence of war or some other calamity, I am not aware of a likely scenario where this happens.
It is not like the virus is making the cows drop dead in their pastures. It doesn't stop chickens from laying eggs each day, or make trees stop producing fruit. There will be some disruptions, so I think stocking up for some number of weeks makes sense and I plan to grow a few more fruits/vegetables in my yard this year. (Many Americans will be surprised how many packaged and frozen foods are processed abroad).
But even in the absolute worst case scenarios, America (and specifically CA) produces an enormous amount of fresh fruit, vegetables, grain and corn, and 90-99.99%+ of people under 50 (and probably 99.9%+) will still be alive in 2 years, and they will be able to milk cows, pick crops, transport them and sell them. So I expect -- with some disruptions and a good amount of substitution -- America should be OK in terms of fresh food.
(03-21-2020, 08:58 AM)stupac2 Wrote: [quote="Farm93" pid='273289' dateline='1584794950']We have innovations too.
Amazon Prime, Supermarket delivery services, Wal-Mart Pick-up, etc.
...
Those things are hammered right now. We placed an amazon Fresh delivery last weekend and just never got it. Meanwhile things like wipes and hand sanitizer are totally wiped out on Amazon.
...
Like, in general, yeah they're nice. But we don't have the infrastructure in place to actually do it in place of in-person shopping.
Where I live in the South Bay, all non-food Amazon deliveries have come on-time.
While Amazon Fresh seems useless for a lack of delivery windows, Nob Hill suggests ordering 48 hours in advance for delivery. Safeway and Costco (via Instacart) can deliver food and the selection looks good for fresh food. And those companies are hiring like crazy to ramp up delivery capabilities.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - CompSci87 - 03-21-2020
I lost confidence that Safeway can deliver when my delivery never arrived, they didn't contact me or give a way to reschedule on their site (instead just showing it as a past order as if it had been delivered), and I got no response to the "where's my order?" request form on the site. They didn't charge my credit card, so at least there was awareness somewhere that they didn't fulfill the order.
RE: All of CA goes shelter-in-place - martyup - 03-21-2020
Well, we are all stuck at home anyway. Gardening is a healthy outdoor activity that does not put you near other people. Home grown food is usually better than store bought. Why not plant a garden?